Cunparis: I was responding to Turning Point at top of page to which you had also had a query. Myself I have a stop limit at top of bar already there if that's what I'm doing.
Re: "They found the best traders over both timeframes had about a 33% win rate."
Yeah, I was just thinking of researching pattern breakouts with very tight stops with the same idea in mind. If you get a hit and run, let it run. If it hits and stalls, you're out with a few ticks loss. Something like that. I suspect 2-4 tick stop to 9-12 tick PT would end up doing quite well assuming you have relatively decent setups to determine entrypoints.
Related to that, another individual at the Traders expo talked about not waiting for the bar to close on a trend to enter with the trend, i.e. to keep the stop loss small. 8SMA, 20SMA on a candle chart. Short example: Wait for a pull back to around the SMA, enter when an red colored bar takes out 55% of a green colored bar. Stop is a tick above the entry bar or prior bar (whatever you want). Use the SMAs as a trailing stop or take profit if the price breaks dramatically away from the 8SMA and starts to pull back. Rinse / repeat knowing that the trend will reverse at some point. Chart example attached from YM today.
I'm sure you're probably right about many things there.. Jim Rogers (I outlined his main points from his interview in the New Year Prediction thread) also said that the dollar may rally with so many people thinking it will fall..
My bigger question (that I was brainstorming about aloud but probably not clear with on All You Need) is: even if the markets drop, traders can make money. It's said wealth is not about the money you make but about how much money you keep... how are you planning to safekeep your hard-earned money, if the dollar is so fragile, progressively more devalued-- and that is your reward in a trade? That's why I was speculating about hedging with possible accounts at some point in different currency than the dollar... do any of you have a plan or think it's enough of concern, even?
The following user says Thank You to goldilocks for this post:
I live in Europe with assets in both dollars & Euros so I'm directly affected. Last year the Euro was at 1.5 or so and we went to the US for vacation. Last december during our vacation the Euro dropped to 1.27! I wish I had "hedged" our vacation. But it could have went the other way, the euro could have risen and made our vacation even cheaper.
Hedging is good for companies to want to reduce currency risk, but if one hedges just cause they think one currency will go up or down it's risky cause it can do the opposite. so for now I'm not doing anything. I will short the euro when the time is right but it'll be a trade and not a hedge.
The following user says Thank You to cunparis for this post: