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All you need
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All you need

  #1891 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney, NS
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: TF,S,GC
 
cclsys's Avatar
 
Posts: 607 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 248 given, 379 received

Eric, yes, I think that's it. It's the last one I posted in the FibExpansion thread. If you put in Period = 1000, then the bands anchor to the opening price which means you have to set the opening price to the opening time. I believe Gold is 8.20 EST but don't quote me on that. I think the specs are in the instrument manager, or at least a link. Gold is getting to be a sort of 24 hour deal with the Asians and Europeans all over it now. Still not a major futures market.

Especially since it looks like (literally) all the gold in Fort Knox was made of $20.00 a ton tungsten (which weights the same) and that most of the gold held by GLD might be from the same manufacturers, all US in the 90's. This story might not get much play in the mainstream media, but it is potentially huge. If true - and thus far it looks like it is - it means that the US is absolutely and utterly finished as the dominant financial power. That was already getting obvious. But for us it means something more important: within the next few years the US futures markets might start to basically fade away in terms of relevance and thus liquidity. Something to consider viz. the long term.

European and Asian bonds might emerge as the biggest instruments in the next few years.

As to the settings, I think I had the PeriodHL (lookback for swings etc.) set to 3 when I threw that up. I didn't play with the settings, just loaded it up.

+++++++++++

There is another excellent opening strategy that was used alot in the 90's on daily charts.

Let's say you have a new swing on the dailies - however you define a new swing which is the big secret/art and nobody is telling. Or your daily particle oscillator has turned above along with a Brooks H2 or whatever.

OK, now you have a 21 bar ATR or something that gives you the typical daily range of that instrument. Take about 1/5th of that (actually, I can't remember what I used to use).

So if the Daily Range in the ES is 16 points = 64 ticks, you opening breakout entry point is 12 ticks. So if the trend is up, buy 12 ticks above the open. Again, I can't remember the formula, but you can study some charts and come up with your own. In simple terms the idea is that if the market is in a trend, you wait to make sure that trend still has legs and then jump on board.

I have no idea if this is still effective. The indexes have become such huge markets the past ten years that I suspect anything simple like this is just too simple.

The Fib envelope strategy in the picture is also different but nothing original. Rather than key off the high or low of a bar, you just key off the opening price itself and then fade whatever move first happens assuming it is enough to penetrate at least one band. I wrote a nice little strategy in TS8 that computed the width of the band based on longer term ATR * x (probably .618 or something). In fact, these new Fib bands of mine are computed on the ATR as well come to think of it, which is why they can move from timeframe to timeframe so easily. Also, if you have a sense of what the typical daily range is (as you should in any market you daytrade I think), you can also study what percentage of that range is usually covered in the first 15, 30 minutes, whatever. Then you have a good idea of what the potential is from that opening range. Factor in trend considerations - like it's definitely in an upswing and not yet looking tired (from LT pt of view) - meaning you have upside bias, and if your opening range is only 25% of the typical daily range, there is a good chance that the other 75% are going to be on the upper side of that opening range. That's the logic behind it, I think, anyway.

This makes sense too if you think of it. How many times have you seen a market open up, lurch one way for a little while and then lurch back the other way. In fact, that is what forms your initial 30 minute range if that is what you are using for the bar breakout strategy. Either the market opens and goes up, say, and keeps going up and never looks back - which happens probably 1/20 days (just guessing) - or down, or it establishes some sort of opening range. So the band strategy here is getting in before that opening range is established and basically fading the first direction assuming that it will reverse and try the other way to get a feel for things or clean people out before getting down to its main direction for the day which is usually clear within the first half hour or so.

And if it's not going anywhere, that suits this approach just fine as well.

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The following 2 users say Thank You to cclsys for this post:
 
  #1892 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
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Silvester17's Avatar
 
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cclsys View Post
Eric, yes, I think that's it. It's the last one I posted in the FibExpansion thread. If you put in Period = 1000, then the bands anchor to the opening price which means you have to set the opening price to the opening time. I believe Gold is 8.20 EST but don't quote me on that. I think the specs are in the instrument manager, or at least a link. Gold is getting to be a sort of 24 hour deal with the Asians and Europeans all over it now. Still not a major futures market.

Especially since it looks like (literally) all the gold in Fort Knox was made of $20.00 a ton tungsten (which weights the same) and that most of the gold held by GLD might be from the same manufacturers, all US in the 90's. This story might not get much play in the mainstream media, but it is potentially huge. If true - and thus far it looks like it is - it means that the US is absolutely and utterly finished as the dominant financial power. That was already getting obvious. But for us it means something more important: within the next few years the US futures markets might start to basically fade away in terms of relevance and thus liquidity. Something to consider viz. the long term.

European and Asian bonds might emerge as the biggest instruments in the next few years.

As to the settings, I think I had the PeriodHL (lookback for swings etc.) set to 3 when I threw that up. I didn't play with the settings, just loaded it up.

+++++++++++

There is another excellent opening strategy that was used alot in the 90's on daily charts.

Let's say you have a new swing on the dailies - however you define a new swing which is the big secret/art and nobody is telling. Or your daily particle oscillator has turned above along with a Brooks H2 or whatever.

OK, now you have a 21 bar ATR or something that gives you the typical daily range of that instrument. Take about 1/5th of that (actually, I can't remember what I used to use).

So if the Daily Range in the ES is 16 points = 64 ticks, you opening breakout entry point is 12 ticks. So if the trend is up, buy 12 ticks above the open. Again, I can't remember the formula, but you can study some charts and come up with your own. In simple terms the idea is that if the market is in a trend, you wait to make sure that trend still has legs and then jump on board.

I have no idea if this is still effective. The indexes have become such huge markets the past ten years that I suspect anything simple like this is just too simple.

The Fib envelope strategy in the picture is also different but nothing original. Rather than key off the high or low of a bar, you just key off the opening price itself and then fade whatever move first happens assuming it is enough to penetrate at least one band. I wrote a nice little strategy in TS8 that computed the width of the band based on longer term ATR * x (probably .618 or something). In fact, these new Fib bands of mine are computed on the ATR as well come to think of it, which is why they can move from timeframe to timeframe so easily. Also, if you have a sense of what the typical daily range is (as you should in any market you daytrade I think), you can also study what percentage of that range is usually covered in the first 15, 30 minutes, whatever. Then you have a good idea of what the potential is from that opening range. Factor in trend considerations - like it's definitely in an upswing and not yet looking tired (from LT pt of view) - meaning you have upside bias, and if your opening range is only 25% of the typical daily range, there is a good chance that the other 75% are going to be on the upper side of that opening range. That's the logic behind it, I think, anyway.

This makes sense too if you think of it. How many times have you seen a market open up, lurch one way for a little while and then lurch back the other way. In fact, that is what forms your initial 30 minute range if that is what you are using for the bar breakout strategy. Either the market opens and goes up, say, and keeps going up and never looks back - which happens probably 1/20 days (just guessing) - or down, or it establishes some sort of opening range. So the band strategy here is getting in before that opening range is established and basically fading the first direction assuming that it will reverse and try the other way to get a feel for things or clean people out before getting down to its main direction for the day which is usually clear within the first half hour or so.

And if it's not going anywhere, that suits this approach just fine as well.

thank you for this excellent post (like all of yours). and thanks for giving me a headache. was playing with your ichilines and clouds.

think you're going the right direction with your view of the global markets. I agree with european bonds to become a leading instrument. don't know about asia. except japan there're not that many good ratings around. and japan with it's currency and bond yields...

will be interesting for sure

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  #1893 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Europe
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Amp Futures/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
omaron's Avatar
 
Posts: 76 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 9 given, 12 received


Is CL not traded today? It does not seems to move in my NT chart

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  #1894 (permalink)
VIP Member
charlotte, nc
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: ES YM
 
Posts: 16 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 44 given, 0 received

are you on 1/10 contract?

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  #1895 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Europe
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Amp Futures/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
omaron's Avatar
 
Posts: 76 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 9 given, 12 received

no, 12-09, same as ES.

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  #1896 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,157 given, 2,032 received


omaron View Post
no, 12-09, same as ES.

01-09 is the most active month, best to trade it. You don't want to risk having a truck show up at your front door.

It was very calm today. It was looking like distribution to me. I missed the big breakout.

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  #1897 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Europe
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Amp Futures/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
omaron's Avatar
 
Posts: 76 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 9 given, 12 received

damn.. i forgot CL contracts are monthly changed

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  #1898 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,157 given, 2,032 received


omaron View Post
damn.. i forgot CL contracts are monthly changed

I hope you're on simulator.

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  #1899 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Europe
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Amp Futures/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
omaron's Avatar
 
Posts: 76 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 9 given, 12 received


cunparis View Post
I hope you're on simulator.

Of course

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  #1900 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,157 given, 2,032 received



omaron View Post
Of course

The simulator trucks are a lot easier to unload.

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