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All you need
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Created: by Jeff Castille Attachments:534

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All you need

  #1881 (permalink)
Member
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Quick comment from a total ignoramus...

I don't think there's any need to backtest the ORB. (opening range breakout) Professional traders have been trading it for years and years. Kind of like back testing the daily pivots, we already know they work, or floor traders wouldn't have been using them for years and years, already.

If we lose money trading these two methods, it's probably due to our poor MM (money management) or lack of discipline. (sticking to the plan for longer than 2 weeks!)

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  #1882 (permalink)
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Jugador View Post
If we lose money trading these two methods, it's probably due to our poor MM (money management) or lack of discipline. (sticking to the plan for longer than 2 weeks!)

That's actually the reason of a strategy and backtests. To try different MM rules and make sure you always stick with the rules.

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  #1883 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Jeff Castille's Avatar
 
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You are right



Jugador View Post
Quick comment from a total ignoramus...

I don't think there's any need to backtest the ORB. (opening range breakout) Professional traders have been trading it for years and years. Kind of like back testing the daily pivots, we already know they work, or floor traders wouldn't have been using them for years and years, already.

If we lose money trading these two methods, it's probably due to our poor MM (money management) or lack of discipline. (sticking to the plan for longer than 2 weeks!)

Jugador,

I believe that you are correct. The ORB is a very high percentage trade as is the push into the close. What I am trying to figure out is if there is a way to identify conditions that occur that we can take into account when it does not work. Perhaps in addition to the 30 minute chart a 20 or 30 range bar chart would be helpful.

Jeff

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  #1884 (permalink)
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Okay, I see what you guys are saying...backtesting different MM strategies, and looking for extra clues, for that little extra bit of an edge. That'll work...

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  #1885 (permalink)
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Jeff, pic using the FibRatioBandsTgt indicator (from Mike's FibEnvelopeExpansion thread) as opening breakout tester.

Went back a few days - all winners. Default settings, didn't play with a thing. Not 30 minutes, though. Just happened to have 150 tick chart up.

This one has the central MA plotted at the Open price with bands above and below. When a band is penetrated, a target is immediately plotted at the corresponding level on the other side of the open (2 targets, in lighter and darker colors). It does seem like a good one, but it takes nerves. I intend to research this using the 30 minute bands and then a shorter time frame for entries and stops, but holding to the LT target.

Note how as soon as the first target was hit, a second was triggered. And that worked great too. I just realised there is a problem with this chart. Must be no longer the front month. But anyway, the principle is there.

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All you need-bm-1122-openbreakout-150tickcrude.png  
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  #1886 (permalink)
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Here's one I made earlier with a 30 min, but Gold. There is one filter I forgot about - a max high/low filter. This one set to 3 so if low is at least the lowest of 3 bars it's okay, otherwise it's ignored. Can be disabled.

Did well -- 2 $1000 trades in a couple of hours with about $50 per contract heat on first, and $150 on second. I am sure many other days would not work out that well. Just happened on this chart the 19th. Indeed, on the 20th it failed, although still about $400 open before coming back up.

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All you need-bm-1122-gio-open-30-min-gold.png  
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  #1887 (permalink)
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cclsys View Post
Here's one I made earlier with a 30 min, but Gold. There is one filter I forgot about - a max high/low filter. This one set to 3 so if low is at least the lowest of 3 bars it's okay, otherwise it's ignored. Can be disabled.

Did well -- 2 $1000 trades in a couple of hours with about $50 per contract heat on first, and $150 on second. I am sure many other days would not work out that well. Just happened on this chart the 19th. Indeed, on the 20th it failed, although still about $400 open before coming back up.

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Excellent work cclsys !! I am fascinated by the fib targets....although I am more comfortable with the simple break from the previous high/low at the open. Can you tell me more about gold.....as far as pit open goes.

Right now I look for a breakout on ZN at 5:20 PST (pit open), CL 6:00 PST (pit open) and YM 6:30 PST (cash open)......I think a trader could perfect trading the open on all these markets and then call it a day.

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  #1888 (permalink)
Big game hunter
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clsys this is the fib target indi youre using ?

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FibRatioBandsTgts1122b.zip (40.3 KB, 10 views)

I wont be able to dive into it before tomorrow when I can spend a few hours with it undistracted and want to make sure I got the right one , thanks again for all the help .

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  #1889 (permalink)
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Hey Jeff...can you do me a favor and check out this post. It is about the ORB. I did this back in Sept...but nobody responded. Thanks.
https://futures.io/elite-circle/773-opening-range-indicator.html#post7373

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  #1890 (permalink)
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ORB strategy



msocks View Post
Hey Jeff...can you do me a favor and check out this post. It is about the ORB. I did this back in Sept...but nobody responded. Thanks.
https://futures.io/elite-circle/773-opening-range-indicator.html#post7373


Hey msocks,

You will notice on that post that I was one of the people who said "thanks" for it. I am not a programmer but.....if we have programmers who are reading this who see the beautiful simplicity of an ORB strategy then perhaps they will take a crack at it.

Jeff


Last edited by Jeff Castille; November 23rd, 2009 at 01:00 AM.
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