CunParis, You only trade the 9.35 opening bar? If i'm not wrong, Jeff takes the other half hour 5 minutes ranges too, like 10.05, 10.35, 11.05 so on. I think he skips the 11.35 bar and lunch time.
Maybe in the context of ORB it is safe only to trade the 9.35 bar. I think Jeff even pointed out the win/loss ratio for just the first 5 minutes ORB. But I kinda like the idea that you can do this for every half hour or so because there tend to be reversals at certain intervals of the day.
In fact, i noticed that we can get pretty good results if we take 1 bar earlier, like 10.30 bar instead of the 10.35 one. I dunno, just my simple observation.
Jeff has pointed out that price often reverses on the half hour, something I agree with. But I do not think he just takes a 5min breakout on each half hour. That has too much risk. Jeff goes for a break of a S/R level.
The only time I will take a trade based on the clock is on the ORB which as its name implies is only at the open (could be 5min, 10m, 30m, 60m anything you want). But if you think about it, this time limit is artificial. Instead of taking the 30m breakout why not take a breakout if it occurs at 25m? Just use the S/R left by price.
At the open it's a different story cause that's when the crap hits the fan. We're simply looking for follow-throw on the opening momentum.
I highly recommend getting Crabel's book (look on eMule) and his articles. Very interesting. He has a few different ways to do it:
- a strong first 10 minutes
- a "stretch"
he gives lots of stats. It's not a system in and of itself, it's more used to establish a bias for the day. a very slight one.
I traded it with an automated strategy for several months and made money on it but eventually it stopped working. The ORB concept didn't stop working, it was just my particular approach and the market conditions at the time.
To take a 5min breakout any other time is too risky. Much better to wait until a price or volume pattern confirm the trade.
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Actually, I am conducting an experiment.
I hear the voice of TRO ringing in my ears. "Trading is simple......price either goes up or it goes down.......price is either making new highs or new lows or reversing from them....I only need two horizontal lines to trade"
So, even though TRO traded on hourly charts....I have noticed that trades often set up on the half hour. Notice todays ES.......if you create your two horizontal lines on the high and low of the first 5 minutes of each half hour....what happens? At the open price exceeds the high of the first 5 minutes and goes 2.5 points....7:00PST news....7:30 price exceeded the first 5 minutes to the down side and goes 5.75 points.....8:00 price exceeds the first 5 minutes to the high side and goes 2.5 points.....8:30 price exceeds first 5 minutes to the downside and goes 2.75 points (perhaps more) On three of these set ups I scalped for 1 point.
Is there any merit to this observation? Does it work all the time? NO.
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it is just scalping trade, and against the trend, 1043 is MM line(bottom trading range), price hit 1043 3 times on 5 min ES chart, second 5 min we got HVC bar, as I observed, if countertrend like this, I tried to get in bar low of first HVC bar, HVC bar in such a down trend I guess it means institution covering? at that time 1046 is 20 EMA and previous swing high (two 5 min bar on 14:25 PM), so I set my target 1045.50.