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You know when you say it like that it's so obvious and I'm kicking myself for missing it. This is often the case with me, people point out a H&S or double top and I didn't catch it. I really need to pay more attention. I was monitoring ES on my TS charts at the same time and although it's not an excuse I definitely need to focus on one thing.
I changed the angles to 20/70 to reduce some of the grey dots. The more I look at this chart the more I think it's not necessary. I think just looking at the price can tell us if there is congestion or not. I'm going to try just the normal colored EMA I think.
Very good point about knowing the low would be tested. I actually use this a lot in my trading, I call it a Low volume test. I feel silly for missing it. I was just too excited about that break of the swing low.
So you gave good criteria for bailing out. Would you also use that criteria to get into the short earlier? At 10:41 there was a trendline break, yellow to red candle, and HMA turned red. This would have been a better entry. Enough to grab a point and move up the stop to breakeven I think.
Thanks for your comments on my trade, that was very helpful.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Thanks for that great reminder. I recently attended a Linda Rashke webinar and she was recommending the Toby Crabel Book "Playing the Opening Range Breakout" The book is out of print but I found a copy online and downloaded it. The best part about it is that it enables you to have a bias based on historical probabilities. It may or may not play out but you can start the day knowing that there is an excellent chance that the day will be a trend day or a range bound day. Totally different styles of trading.
So.... if you can get ahold of that book..... you'll be glad you did.
I like the simple setup on your chart, integrating the Sharky's new indy (which I find to be the best indy on this forum at the moment). What are the three MAs on Panel 1 ? Which two of the three indys are for the SlingShot ? And what indy do you have on Panel 3 ? Is it a Volume indy ?
Yes, the trendline break would give you additional confirmation. But...... I was already in the trade based on the retrace to the 20 EMA. This entry turned out to be too early but I knew that there was a possibility that the retrace could go as far as the globex low so...... I wasn't too worried when I was taking some heat. I had up my LBR template in addition to the "All you Need" template.
I don't know how many screens you're using but..... I like to keep a 5 minute chart up with the pivots on it.(nothing else) Generally, being aware of the daily pivot, support and resistance,globex high/low,previous day high/low etc. is a good thing. You'll notice that I missed the best trade of the morning. I wanted to see how price behaved at S1. But I caught it on the retest. The rationale was to see if S1 would hold or break. Turned out it broke.... so support then become resistance. That's when I sold the retrace.
The old saying "Let your winners run and cut your losers short" is really the name of the game.
Did you ever attend PureTick trading room? The reason for my question is that they trade YM with targets +7, +11, trailing last -- similar to what you do.
Yes, I subscribed for one month. I attended 4 days during that time. I found that the calls in the room were more of a distraction for me than a help. I've also experimented with +5.+10 like the Trade the Markets guys do. Although, I know that in certain market conditions that John Carter will go +10,+20.
Bottomline... I just experimented and found that +7 was usually attainable and I could move the stop up to -7 and get a breakeven trade if the market moved against me. I got tired of setting my first target at +10 and getting to within one tick of my target only to have the market then move the other direction and getting nothing or a loss.
Tom Busby of DTI and Damon Pavlatos of FuturePath Trading and Linda Rashke also like to "take quick profits" Some will then try for a second target and then a runner, others just first target and push the balance as far as they can. I've found that since the market only trends 15% of the time that a runner is pretty rare. So why risk the extra cars? This is what made me adopt more of a scalper mentality. Plus 7,plus 11 then wait for your next set up. That's all.
If you look at any given move in the market how far does it go at one time? If you can take a chunk out of the middle of a move I'd say that's pretty good.
I've been doing some manual backtesting and I was trying 4 & 8 ticks for ES. What I found is that I would have done much better trading with one target at 8 ticks. It made more than twice as much.
I also found that when I use 4 & 8 and move my stop to breakeven once the 4 target is hit, then I often got stopped out and then price would continue and would have taken my 8 tick target. So this seemed less optimal than a single 8 tick target. I'm still experimenting but so far that's my findings.
That sounds like Sharkys approach. All in, all out. Just one big SHARK BITE !! I don't know if you saw the kind of size that Sharky trades but...... I can see that it's definately a great way to go. No over trading, not getting greedy, you just need to be super confident in your set up. This cetainly minimizes your "time in the market" which is a good thing. I don't like the exposure. I took a sim trade on the ZN today, got my 3 ticks, it was great !! Now, if my account could handle the kind of size that Sharky trades that would be awesome !!
I have been researching LBR & her 3/10 oscillator and her patterns. Would you recommend her basic online service or the one with the trading room? She gives some information on her site but I'd like to see how she uses it. For example she talks about using the TICK. I use TICk so I'm curious how she is using it, like what timeframe. I'm currently using it on a 1min timeframe. How she uses Kelter bands, etc. I'm not really interested in taking her trades, but I am interested in studying them and finding out why. I could probably get that from the chat room transcripts but it'd be nice to analyze them in real time.
Also, do you know why a 4 range on tradestation isn't the same as on Ninjatrader? I'd like to get everything in tradestation if I can, makes it easier to watch and I'm better and programming easylanguage.
My first goal over the past few days was to learn the entries. I think I have that, I now need to work on being more selective with my trades and exiting quickly when I'm wrong. I'm starting to see how all these strategies / indicators didn't look like they worked at first.. it's because anything can work if you practice a lot and learn how to use it. It's going to take a while..
I've never really been into scaling in and out. I first started by developing automated systems (which never held up!) and one thing I found was that scaling in was never optimal. If you have a lot of statistics on your system then you should know the optimal target level and stop level. That's my theory, but so many successful traders say they scale out so I'm trying to make sense of it.
