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Voter Sentiment in upcoming US election and effect on market after election results


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Voter Sentiment in upcoming US election and effect on market after election results

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  #1 (permalink)
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This is just to understand better what is US voter sentiment is, I ask here because media is often misleading and from my past experiences about these things (including our own election season) most of the time wrong.

I also want to know what is going to be economical effect if either of the candidates get win?

From what I see in media, it seems Joe Biden is favourite. What do you knowledgable people think?

Please note this is not intended towards fanning any political flames, this is simple curiosity of someone who is looking at the event from outside. And if possible, utilize it for some trading and investing opportunities.

This was forwarded chart from somewhere, posting here just for reference

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  #2 (permalink)
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LastDino View Post
This is just to understand better what is US voter sentiment is, I ask here because media is often misleading and from my past experiences about these things (including our own election season) most of the time wrong.

I also want to know what is going to be economical effect if either of the candidates get win?

From what I see in media, it seems Joe Biden is favourite. What do you knowledgable people think?

Please note this is not intended towards fanning any political flames, this is simple curiosity of someone who is looking at the event from outside. And if possible, utilize it for some trading and investing opportunities.

Just a note, this topic is fine and it is relevant to trading. Any answers should be about objective assessments, not political opinions.

It is the policy of futures.io to not open up purely political debates and disagreements, due to their potential to divide people unnecessarily. Unfortunately, the topic is ripe for political soapboxing and venting of opinions for or against either candidate or party, which is not appropriate here.

As always, objective consideration of any factors that bear on the markets is appropriate.

Within that understanding, feel free to respond.

Bob.

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  #3 (permalink)
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Dino, monitor Dec and Jan expiration index options...like /ES or SPY. Note that there is an EXTREME short position QQQ right now. Look at dollar gamma at each expiration and you will see what the market thinks, based on "bets on the table".

For me as an individual... if futures lose their favorable taxation status and/or capital gains go as regular way income, I am out. Agriculture and furniture building will replace stocks and trading.

-Dan

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I am highly skeptical of the polls. Quite frankly I believe that they likely under-count the votes that Trump is likely to receive. I base this opinion on two points. One, due to the highly charged political climate, there are many closet Trump supporters who will not publicly admit their support for the current President - even in an anonymous poll. The reason for this is that celebrities, mainstream media personalities and their followers routinely label Trump supporters as racists, misogynists, homophobes, idiots, etc. No one wants to be called those things, so many Republican voters simply keep their mouths shut.

The second point is that Joe Biden seems unlikely to arouse much voter enthusiasm from anyone other than the staunch Democrat - anti-Trump bloc. The swing voters, who ultimately decide elections, may not feel quite as inspired to go out and vote against the incumbent than the polls might suggest - especially during the current covid era.

The markets currently seem to be pricing in a pretty high likelihood of a Biden victory, but I'm not quite so convinced.

In the meantime, keep a close eye on energy stocks. They might be one of the better gauges of investor and voter sentiment right now.

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For me as an individual... if futures lose their favorable taxation status and/or capital gains go as regular way income, I am out. Agriculture and furniture building will replace stocks and trading.



-Dan


I could be mistaken, but I haven’t seen any proposals for changes like these.

In Illinois, there is a “fair tax” being put on the upcoming vote, but I did not see anything indicating securities were part of the proposed changes.


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I don't give 2 shits as long as it don't fuck up my NQ long @11270!

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Joe Biden's stated plan:

To finance the health-care plan, he would 1) increase the top marginal income tax rate on long-term capital gains to 39.6 percent for taxpayers earning more than $1 million annually, and 2) eliminate a tax expenditure called “step-up in basis” that allows decedents to pass capital gains to heirs without tax. This is also propose on dividend income, currently taxed at 15%

Biden has stated that he will eliminate the rule 1256 "exemptions for futures contracts". Currently futures are taxed 60/40. This means that while 40% of your gains in futures trading is taxed at the same 35% rate as short-term stock trading, 60% of your gains are taxed at the long-term capital gains rate of 15%

FFT or financial transactions tax of on stock trades at 0.2 percent, bond trades at 0.1 percent, and derivative transactions at 0.002 percent, have been planned.


Biden’s plan would increase the corporate income tax rate to 28 percent, from 21%, Harris wants 38%

The Democrats have also floated implementation of a 4 percent “income-based premium” on households making more than $100,000 annually to pay for her version of “Medicare for All”.

So, yeah, If that stuff happens I go full Bernie and live off the tax revenue of others. I've had enough.

...and as far as Illinois is concerned, I did not make any of those deals with public employee pension funds or any of the unearned giveaways that Madigan has used to retain power...so I'm out.

Just my two cents on taxation as it relates to trading.

-Dan

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wldman View Post
Joe Biden's stated plan:



To finance the health-care plan, he would 1) increase the top marginal income tax rate on long-term capital gains to 39.6 percent for taxpayers earning more than $1 million annually, and 2) eliminate a tax expenditure called “step-up in basis” that allows decedents to pass capital gains to heirs without tax. This is also propose on dividend income, currently taxed at 15%



Biden has stated that he will eliminate the rule 1256 "exemptions for futures contracts". Currently futures are taxed 60/40. This means that while 40% of your gains in futures trading is taxed at the same 35% rate as short-term stock trading, 60% of your gains are taxed at the long-term capital gains rate of 15%



FFT or financial transactions tax of on stock trades at 0.2 percent, bond trades at 0.1 percent, and derivative transactions at 0.002 percent, have been planned.





Biden’s plan would increase the corporate income tax rate to 28 percent, from 21%, Harris wants 38%



The Democrats have also floated implementation of a 4 percent “income-based premium” on households making more than $100,000 annually to pay for her version of “Medicare for All”.



So, yeah, If that stuff happens I go full Bernie and live off the tax revenue of others. I've had enough.



...and as far as Illinois is concerned, I did not make any of those deals with public employee pension funds or any of the unearned giveaways that Madigan has used to retain power...so I'm out.



Just my two cents on taxation as it relates to trading.



-Dan



I did not know that, thank you for sharing.


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wldman View Post
Dino, monitor Dec and Jan expiration index options...like /ES or SPY. Note that there is an EXTREME short position QQQ right now. Look at dollar gamma at each expiration and you will see what the market thinks, based on "bets on the table".

For me as an individual... if futures lose their favorable taxation status and/or capital gains go as regular way income, I am out. Agriculture and furniture building will replace stocks and trading.

-Dan

Long term capital gain taxation has been quite a controversial topic here as well.

Ironically enough, India's current government also has dabbled into it with little to no thought on the name of taxing "rich", but often it is just redirecting flow of money out of markets into physical assets like gold and silver, which is near impossible to track due to sizeable black economy.

For the people interested, to my knowledge, currently India is taxing 10% on gains above 1 lacs (that would be around $1.4k) in case of equity shares and 20% for non-equity share assets. I find that very very high considering already lowered fixed deposit interest rates due to recent lock-downs, FD has lost almost 2% interest gains in last year. That is sizeable decrease, usually it drops around 0.25 per year or two.

In this act the government has managed to neither tax rich nor pass on the any of the said benefits. All they have done is dry up inflow of money into market. Also, in US talking point is usually "healthcare for all", in India it is "farmer loans", I've significant rant on that topic but this is not appropriate outlet. I'm from farming family, for as far back as 150 years, and one of the things I oppose strongly is "forgiving farmer loans", because that doesn't do any good to farmers who actually need it or banks/taxpayers who carry that burden.



Schnook View Post
I am highly skeptical of the polls. Quite frankly I believe that they likely under-count the votes that Trump is likely to receive. I base this opinion on two points. One, due to the highly charged political climate, there are many closet Trump supporters who will not publicly admit their support for the current President - even in an anonymous poll. The reason for this is that celebrities, mainstream media personalities and their followers routinely label Trump supporters as racists, misogynists, homophobes, idiots, etc. No one wants to be called those things, so many Republican voters simply keep their mouths shut.

The second point is that Joe Biden seems unlikely to arouse much voter enthusiasm from anyone other than the staunch Democrat - anti-Trump bloc. The swing voters, who ultimately decide elections, may not feel quite as inspired to go out and vote against the incumbent than the polls might suggest - especially during the current covid era.

The markets currently seem to be pricing in a pretty high likelihood of a Biden victory, but I'm not quite so convinced.

In the meantime, keep a close eye on energy stocks. They might be one of the better gauges of investor and voter sentiment right now.

This was also very informative, @ bolded part we have similar case here as well, so I can relate.

Thank you both of you for taking time to reply here. Much appreciated, its unfortunate that in this age of high media presence all we hear is noise and nothing else.

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