I wholeheartedly agreed. I have seen 100's of beautifully backtested systems totally crash and burn when traded live, victims of curve-fitting and over-optimization. Trading also takes a ton of patience and more trial-and-error, and money management. That is why we've been able to stay afloat for so long: resisting the temptation to put all chips in.
~vmodus
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The issue of why all of the fancy indicators don’t work is because of the large investors. Using https://bookmap.com/ combined with moving averages, resistance points, vwap and other core market concepts will dramatically change your success ratio.
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Mack is the ONLY seriously profitable trader not pushing anything (he has a manual for $99 but does not push it at all) - watch his daily YT vids on the ES....absolutely priceless....many traders have turned profitable after picking up his patterns/methods. He is the REAL deal.
You can read my trading journal of my Hang Seng futures journey if you wish where I apply PATS in real-time.
I would have saved myself thousands of $$$ and years of pain if I had just learnt these methods earlier.
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[yt]https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQ3D2_YyX3BSalVUdZjkGRQ[/yt]
pure gold.....you need to review a few dozen then it all starts to make sense..
buy at support ,sell at resistance
identify trending vs rangebound
spot the signal bar -> at the key-entry-point..
pull the trigger
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I have been trading the ES.. options, at first I tried to do spreads, but ran into margin issues. I have noticed when the Volubility is high I could trade a single long option , buy it, and ride the ES.. move and Sell for some profit. Just before the last down move the vol dried up and so did the strategy ( whipped sawed down my account ). Have to move farter out in time and deeper into the money ( more capital tied up ) Moved back to XSP options just in time for the down move. Evaluating my next move. Keep evaluating....
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I'm definitely convinced it's possible for people to systematically trade futures for profit even though I've only actually been trading live for one month.
I've been researching systematic trading in my own way for almost 10 years prior to risking a single cent. I'm an engineer professionally and believe in doing your homework up front. I also believe in having sound simulation practices and that having such practices can make trading a real account not "feel" any different than simulation trading. I've sim traded for about 6 months and invested nearly 10 years in developing my process. As a result, I have very high confidence in it, and will be able to stand by it when the waters get rough provided the system stays within statistical expectations. (Never trust anyone that says they can't or won't lose...Markets are incredibly nonstationary, meaning their underlying mechanics are not fixed.)
I transitioned to live trading last month and have attached my first broker statement. I began with a little over $10K in the account.
Your journey doesn't have to look like mine or anyone else's on this forum. Only you can really determine what is the right journey for you. I am a fan of automated approaches for several reasons:
1) You can hold that day job and not feel compelled to achieve an earnings quota or hit any forced target
2) You aren't tethered to the pc all day.
3) Your setup will be uber simple. My trading office setup is an iphone screen when I'm on the go or at most a laptop screen.
4) Systematic actively managed approaches tend to be noncorrelated to buy and hold / value investing and can complement larger portfolios quite well
I wish you the best of luck on your journey! If you are looking for a great treatise on automated trading, I can wholeheartedly recommend Kevin Davey's book on the subject. Please note I am not affiliated with Mr. Davey in any regard, but he has a lot of great content which illustrates the nuances for when "out of sample data" turns into in sample data based on steps the system developer may take in his or her analysis.
Best Wishes,
OUrocketman
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Thank you so much! I can't tell you how much it means to me to hear from a regular person. It was pretty naive of me to write this thread, so I really appreciate you reaching out!
Thanks again,
Kyron
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