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I recommend to subscribe to https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/ service.
The system is based on artificial intellegince system that makes conclusion based on its own without humans input.
It precisely forecasted a lot of world events economic and other, including what is going now long time before there was any sign.
it will cost you 150USD per month with one market included. The premium subscription will give you bullish and bearish reversals on daily, weekly and monthly base plus timing of when changes should occur (Time & price meet). the accuracy is between 70-90 % percent depends what is going in the market.
There is a learning curve, I am willing to help/explain, at least this way you will have an idea what you are facing.
You can be a subscriber for short while until you resolve the issue (check the cancellation policy).
(Disclaimer I am not affiliated with armstrongeconomics, just a customer, I am testing the system for trading.)
Everybody, thank you for your input. Your advice give some light on the options and I feel supported too.
I have closed the trade on 8th of June, almost at the top, over 11k EUR loss. Right now the price is 1000p (5k EUR) lower than it was when I closed, so my timing was terrible. Anyway, like futurestrader71 said, I did the right thing.
Hard lesson learned. Gladly I can carry the loss. I have swallowed it and moved on. Better for the quality of my sleep too
I would like to add here, unlike a surgeon, trading is the only occupation that one can make money, and not know what they are doing.
( Been there, and honestly had lost track how many accounts I have blown up over 10.)
The comment earlier that no one can really tell you what to do, is true. It's exclusive to you and your perception, and personality.
To me the real question, in my opinion is not the trade itself, but why are you choosing to do this. What is it that you are learning. It is obvious you have an fear of loosing money. You are not alone with this, but you are going to have to get over it. Loosing is part of the game. The most successful traders do not have this fear.
Consider writing things down. A journal (Ugh). Write down where you are screwing up, an work on correcting these issues. It's a lot like a journey of self discovery. Once you get the idea of what motivates you, on all levels, it will get easier from there.
Every single outcome has already been posted, and we all have our personal preferences, However, Every trade that we take, can be labelled as an statistically independent event. Having said so, and having set your perception of the current market trend, what's stopping you for even reversing your position? ultimately the risk will be the same, the cost, is just another broker commission, but again, the risk is just the same. Would the market go with you in this new trade? Nobody knows.
My personal preference is just to lick my wounds and forget about that losing trade and focus in future opportunities. Many people say that neither you catch "falling knives" nor put you in front of a "running train". I rather be in a trade that I am happy with, than to try to forcefully recoup losses. Of course I would be happier if I am in a winning trade.but losses are part of the game.
In this "game", the worse scenario is being taken out of the game, and that could easily happen if your balance drops to a place that you dont want it to be.
@supa2001 asked a few really good questions. I'm responding here in the thread so that others can benefit. Thanks man.
In my initial response I made certain to mention AVOIDING the pejorative. That is absolutely true, necessary, and one of the massive efforts by @BigMike to maintain a high value forum.
Let me say without offering it as criticism that if you routinely let positions get out of hand you need to check your method and your discipline. Hopium takes more lives than any other trading malpractice. That is not a high horse, its a seat Ive sat in numerous times. Learn from your errors.
The first and obvious choice is to kill the loser little. I get it that some people make a valid point that doing so can easily develop into a limitation...that is also true. I've never applied any formula to it and I believe that the non-algo guys that get to focused on R or some statistical metric are spending too much time analyzing.
Second it is important to distinguish between a planned hedge and a get me out of this shit position hedge. Reacting when it hurts is evidence of a flaw...find the flaw.
Options can create very complex positions, in turn, if you know what you are doing this can be very rewarding. BUT, if you are casual or haphazard in approach or execution there will be someone like me that is happy to take your money. To become acquainted with various characteristics and fundamental options strategies I recommend two texts.
The risk profile of one lot short. In the "price slices you can see how the position responds to changes up and down in price.
Price wheeled down to show position modestly against you:
So, almost 100 handles out this feels like a bad do. You could cover it or you could buy long call in the name or a mechanically correlated name, like SPY. Notice the "Delta" -50, that is what you hedge against....and there are a lot of ways to do it. I wheeled in some more pain....lol
So buy 9 is Dec 300's is a pretty good hedge, but if you look at the risk chart, you are effectively "stopped" at a little worse that $7,000.
Then the idea is to job (trade) that call position, booking profits and adjusting your strike price to gain advantage. You position is "neutral", your losses are limited and defined. However that is a $25,000 call position that will go to zero in 189 days. Your job is to scalp the theta and book profits from neutral till you work it out.
The risk tool on ToS does not link the pricing otherwise I would show scenario analysis.
