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I have no "edge" - Should I throw in the towel?


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I have no "edge" - Should I throw in the towel?

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  #1 (permalink)
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I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



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  #2 (permalink)
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Ask yourself:

What is the ADR of the instrument?

What percent of that does your 10 tick stop represent? Do you think you have the expertise to time the market to that extent?

TL;DR: 10 ticks is ridiculous. Try 10 points, it's closer to reality than 10 ticks. Then you are either right or wrong. At ten ticks you are trading noise in this market where we can move 100 points in a session.


tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



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  #3 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

@Big Mike brings up great points.

Bear in mind my experience is limited, so others feel free to correct if I am misleading, but here's something that I think is true...10 ticks is a static constant, in the sense that the underlying market is dynamic and always changing...volatility is something that you cannot determine in advance but you can gain a sense at least by seeing things like recent swing-highs and swing-lows. I don't know if you are trading a chart or a DOM or whatever but if its a chart look at the recent swing-highs and swing-lows, how many ticks away are they? the market tends to pay attention to things like that, then look at your 10-ticks by comparison, I am guessing that you are just getting swallowed up in the "harmonic rotation", the natural ebb & flow of the particular market you are trading. Finding the right stop-placement for the particular market you are trading is very difficult, because the market's job is to create confusion it seems, and you don't always get a clear swing-high or swing-low that makes the perfect stop-placement and often you have to improvise. You make mistakes and you learn from them and that's how you improve.

I really hope this helps and doesn't just add confusion, there are a lot more experienced traders here than me and sometimes I wonder if I should be giving advice at all. I hope it helps though. Cheers.

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  #4 (permalink)
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@tonybravo, re-reading your post now...do you have a chart of a trade you could post for reference? That might elicit more responses and get more ideas you can work with.

My first post ever on FIO is this one:

I don't have a clue what I was talking about and I keep coming back to that chart after all this time and I can't figure out what in the world I was thinking. We all start somewhere and I am still struggling.

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  #5 (permalink)
Legendary Pratik_4Clover
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Your situation is exactly what majority of us go through, at least I've. Problem is you have no defined SL and when you do you probably don't wait for market to prove you wrong or right.

You need to do both, if I were you I would pay very close attention to what Big Mike has said about ADR

ADR and ATR SL's are easy ways to calculate SL.

Edge is combination of many things, often its experience gained after repeated trading of same systems.

/just my 2c

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  #6 (permalink)
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Sorry little sidevtrack on SL. As I think using a SL is not always the right way to apply risk management. Do ask yourself is a SL really nessecary? Stoplosses are the least understood tool. Imo chasing momentum/trend in 1 instrument might be the only valid case where a SL has added value.

And if traders use a SL in a trend strategy they use ATR stops. Meaning when volatility is high you get a wider stop and when lower vol a closer stop.

But imo that doesn't make sense in trend trading. You want quite the opposite actually: when vol is high quite closer stops, so when vol explodes your cutting early or get a huge winner, and when vol is low you want to widen your stop.

LastDino View Post
Your situation is exactly what majority of us go through, at least I've. Problem is you have no defined SL and when you do you probably don't wait for market to prove you wrong or right.

You need to do both, if I were you I would pay very close attention to what Big Mike has said about ADR

ADR and ATR SL's are easy ways to calculate SL.

Edge is combination of many things, often its experience gained after repeated trading of same systems.

/just my 2c

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rlstreet View Post
Sorry little sidevtrack on SL. As I think using a SL is not always the right way to apply risk management. Do ask yourself is a SL really nessecary? Stoplosses are the least understood tool. Imo chasing momentum/trend in 1 instrument might be the only valid case where a SL has added value.

And if traders use a SL in a trend strategy they use ATR stops. Meaning when volatility is high you get a wider stop and when lower vol a closer stop.

But imo that doesn't make sense in trend trading. You want quite the opposite actually: when vol is high quite closer stops, so when vol explodes your cutting early or get a huge winner, and when vol is low you want to widen your stop.


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I can't really imagine my economical condition if as a newbie I didn't have SL, however it is true that many experienced traders don't use it. I'm not one of them yet so I can't talk about it.

I agree with ATR SL usage as you have explained too.

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LastDino View Post
I can't really imagine my economical condition if as a newbie I didn't have SL, however it is true that many experienced traders don't use it. I'm not one of them yet so I can't talk about it.

I agree with ATR SL usage as you have explained too.

It's indeed this fear that motivates new traders to use a hard SL. This fear is because new traders often trade on too much leverage. They know if the trade goes against them, you might blow up a big part of the account

The problem with using a hard SL is that you don't give yourself the time and room to be right. And as we know markets 80% of the time likes nothing better to wiggle around.

Imagine trading on less leverage giving yourself more the time and room to be right. So you can use other exits like a fixed time exit or a mental SL or exit when there is an opposite signal, without this fear that a trade against you will going to blow up your account.

For highly leveraged futures you can fe use calendar spreads or spreads between different assets to get some hedge and thereby deleverage your position. Or you can use the mini's, I just love those.

There are lots of ways to skin a cat, just just don't buy this newbie SL strategies stuff as it will prevent you being successful.

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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



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I bolded the statement I'm most interested in. I'm speaking for myself here, maybe you can relate.

I find that when I'm always wrong, it's because I'm really not paying attention to what's going on. Usually when I'm always wrong, I already have a trade I want to place regardless of the current conditions, or I have a bias that, for some reason or another, I just don't want to let go of. It's because of closed-mindedness, and stubbornness, for me. It's taking trades that I want to happen, but don't really flow or make sense in the environment. I'm still working on this.

What helped me (and it's something I may have to do again) was to sit back for a couple weeks and simply observe price action. I took no trades during this time. I don't want to go so far as to say it "re-wired" my brain completely to be more receptive to the flow of price action, but it pushed me in that direction. I stopped predicting and picking places to execute and instead sought out opportunities that objectively made sense (objective to me ).

Also, if I were trading the MES with a $1000 account, I would be stressed executing because of the stop loss size I'd have to use.

Stick with it man!

There's nothing to think about.

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  #10 (permalink)
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You are trading one contract, correct? @tonybravo I don't know if you're planning on going back to sim trade, but there's something interesting I heard this morning that rings true to me. Might be something you have to practice on sim because it;s more expensive when you're wrong.

"It's harder to trade with one contract than two because you have to be much more precise with your entry, and once you're in a trade the second contract can be scaled off to reduce risk."

Take this with a grain of salt. I've been trading 2 months only...maybe somebody else can chime in on this.

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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Yeah, that Mike guy is correct; you need to give your trades more room, and ATR is a s good as any metric out there, to gauge that space.

Then you need some very basic points of reference i.e., previous days high/low/close, ETH range, current day's opening etc

You also need to identify the kind of trading day i.e., range day or trend day. If it's a range day, then you should adopt a mean reversion mindset ( buying breaks, and selling rallies) and if it's a trend day, you should trade in the direction of the trend. If the market is trending higher, then you should be buying breaks, not selling rallies.

I would hold off on indicators, trend lines, and chart patterns. You want to be able to read price action w/o them.

You could put a 21MA, 50MA, and 200MA on your chart. A lot of low latency algos incorporate these averages (especially 50MA) and you would be surprised by how often they signal moves. They also help, to put the market in a directional and timeframe perspective.

There's a plethora of more advice out there, but this is a start.

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  #12 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
Yeah, that Mike guy is correct; you need to give your trades more room, and ATR is a s good as any metric out there, to gauge that space.



Then you need some very basic points of reference i.e., previous days high/low/close, ETH range, current day's opening etc



You also need to identify the kind of trading day i.e., range day or trend day. If it's a range day, then you should adopt a mean reversion mindset ( buying breaks, and selling rallies) and if it's a trend day, you should trade in the direction of the trend. If the market is trending higher, then you should be buying breaks, not selling rallies.



I would hold off on indicators, trend lines, and chart patterns. You want to be able to read price action w/o them.



You could put a 21MA, 50MA, and 200MA on your chart. A lot of low latency algos incorporate these averages (especially 50MA) and you would be surprised by how often they signal moves. They also help, to put the market in a directional and timeframe perspective.



There's a plethora of more advice out there, but this is a start.


@tigertrader , when I see masterminds like yourself who are at the top of the foodchain give a fairly detailed coaching to poor newbies (I am kinda one of them now that I see real pros), who are getting broken down by 50$ loss, I start to believe altruism still exists (hard to justify your time time otherwise, you canít sell anything to them worth of you time).

Aside from the above long-winded note of appreciation - any basic pointers to focus on about how to assess if it is a range day or a trend day? At the end of the day - it is clear, we are talking about status quo - as it happens... a leading indicator...
Even tossing a link to the relevant thread (I am sure it has been discussed before) - would work.


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  #13 (permalink)
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Unfortunately just the title of this post makes me question whether you really do want success out of the market or are hoping someone confirms what you might be feeling about getting out. There are far too many things that could possibly be wrong with how you are trying to trade but you don't give any details. Remember the markets are extremely tough and in order to be successful you need to be tenacious, determined, have humility, be ready to put in long hours training the different modalities that are needed to be successful as a trader, and then train, train and train some more.

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yoyotrader1 View Post
@tigertrader , when I see masterminds like yourself who are at the top of the foodchain give a fairly detailed coaching to poor newbies (I am kinda one of them now that I see real pros), who are getting broken down by 50$ loss, I start to believe altruism still exists (hard to justify your time time otherwise, you canít sell anything to them worth of you time).

Aside from the above long-winded note of appreciation - any basic pointers to focus on about how to assess if it is a range day or a trend day? At the end of the day - it is clear, we are talking about status quo - as it happens... a leading indicator...
Even tossing a link to the relevant thread (I am sure it has been discussed before) - would work.


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Using /ES as point of reference, it should first be noted that trend days are the exception rather than the rule. They probably occur about once very 6-7 days or 3-4 times a month. Most of the gains and the linear moves in /ES occur overnight in the ETH session. However, if you capitalize on trend days when presented during the RTH session, you can make your month.

That being said, a trend day typically opens higher/lower above/below the VWAP accompanied by a strong/weak $TICK and good/bad breadth, and remains above/below the VWAP all day, along with the 21EMA of $TICK staying positive/negative, and breadth remaining strong/weak. The market will usually close on its highs/lows.

On the other hand, a range day will see the market trade above and below the VWAP, often times with perfect symmetry to the VWAP i.e., rally +2SD and break -2SD, always returning to the VWAP, and often settling on it. Of course, the distinction gets easier to make as the day progresses.

Just pull up some 15min VWAP charts and you will be able to see some examples.







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There should be different size "Thank you" buttons for the experience based wisdom extract like this. Thank you.


tigertrader View Post
Using /ES as point of reference, it should first be noted that trend days are the exception rather than the rule. They probably occur about once very 6-7 days or 3-4 times a month. Most of the gains and the linear moves in /ES occur overnight in the ETH session. However, if you capitalize on trend days when presented during the RTH session, you can make your month.

That being said, a trend day typically opens higher/lower above/below the VWAP accompanied by a strong/weak $TICK and good/bad breadth, and remains above/below the VWAP all day, along with the 21EMA of $TICK staying positive/negative, and breadth remaining strong/weak. The market will usually close on its highs/lows.

On the other hand, a range day will see the market trade above and below the VWAP, often times with perfect symmetry to the VWAP i.e., rally +2SD and break -2SD, always returning to the VWAP, and often settling on it. Of course, the distinction gets easier to make as the day progresses.

Just pull up some 15min VWAP charts and you will be able to see some examples.








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@yoyotrader1, I posted this yesterday on another thread; however, it seems especially appropriate for this thread...

There really isn't that many different ways of approaching trading correctly, but there are an infinite number of ways to trade incorrectly. Unfortunately, higher visibility is a user level factor, and the acquisition of information and adoption of that information transfers almost instantaneously when it is readily available, versus when one has to seek it out and perception of adoption is non-existent.

Obviously, there are many more failed traders than successful traders, so there is a very high probability, that there is a commensurate amount of bad advice and faulty knowledge available to aspiring newbie traders. In other words, what-they-see-is what-they-get. The stuff that really works takes time and is hard work to uncover. That is, the methodological wrapper for inductively organizing the information gathered is accomplished through quasi-experimentation.

The other problem is, people believe what they want to believe, see what they want to see, and hear what they want to hear. They tend to avoid information that contradicts what they already think or believe, and tend to seek out other like-minded people. Itís the guiding force behind organized religion, the political system, cults, and yes...forums.

Researchers found that people are about twice as likely to select information that supports their own point of view (67 percent) as to consider an opposing idea (33 percent) and 3 times as reluctant to consider differing perspective when it pertains to politics and religion. One could only imagine what the percentage is when it comes to money and trading -probably 95-99%, huh? I've seen this phenomenon repeat itself ad infinitum on this forum. Big Mike and other experienced traders will dole out advice, and it is summarily ignored or even refuted, by aspiring traders with little experience.

It is not only easy to get sidetracked, spun around, and derailed by the markets, but one can also be misled if the information they are receiving is apocryphal. Everyone wants to make money, but with respect to what? Everyone one wants to wrestle the gorilla, until the door opens. So, instead of making rational decisions based on objective observation, they make emotional decisions that make them feel safe and comfortable. They develop a compulsive addiction to this stimulus-response loop which reduces them to instant-gratification junkies. They may have a seemingly effective methodology that generates profitable trades, but in the end, they never get ahead because they end giving it all back in the rake and grind. They either choose the markets-they-trade and the strategies-they-use randomly, or once again, make the decision based on comfort.

The result is that 80% of the ideas that are freely exchanged on this site are invalid. They are misguided, anachronistic, simplistic, irrelevant and often just plain wrong. The dilemma is, how does one separate the wheat from the chaff. Logic would dictate, and it is confirmed from my personal experience, that the best place to seek knowledge is from someone who is extremely knowledgeable and experienced. So for starters, i would question the quality of the sources of the advice you are seeking, and look to those individuals who are proven and have successfully accomplished what you seek to achieve.

Rational traders incorporate risk into the determination of their expectation, because their approach is reason-based, rather than driven by emotion. They are able to build positions, add to their positions, and follow the move-to-the-end. They focus on getting bigger, and size their trades to get the maximum compounded growth of their capital relative to the amount of risk they are willing to incur, and they trade the markets and use the strategies that allows them to accomplish these goals. They realize and accept that markets vary from day-to-day and even intra-day, and that it is unwise to trade the market the same way, on days that aren't alike.

Forums can be beneficial and I would certainly argue that more education is preferable to less, provided the education doesn't impede someone's ability to reason things through for themselves. And provided the knowledge that is imparted is accurate and doesnít mislead itís readers.. In order to effectively convey ideas to others, you must amend their perspective and their point of reference, so that they may see it anew, and from an entry point that they will understand. To spare them the inevitable beatings of otherwise learning it the hard way is not often appreciated until its too late.

I realize this is very theoretical sounding and not very practical in nature, but it is not without its reason. Learn to think critically (& on your own) and don't be a follower. The way you choose to learn and acquire expertise in trading is as important as the actual process. So, give it careful thought and approach it logically - develop a plan to learn and then execute the plan. Forget about popular opinion and don't take anything at face value. Organize and filter your ideas and determine what is relevant, but allow conflicting ideas to generate new conclusions. Keep in mind, that in theory, there is no difference between theory and practice, but in practice there is.

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  #17 (permalink)
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@tigertrader
What you just wrote is appropriate not just this thread, but should be a mandatory part of intro course for all the newbies who suffer through the bitter personal experience, rather than learning from the priceless wisdom accumulated over years (almost half a century in your case). Being a brain specialist in my main/original profession, I could not concur more about the bias in people believing what they want to believe - something I "preach" to many in my "other life" all the time.

I am just ecstatic to finally find a place (this forum), when someone experienced (like you) is not beating their own drum for an hour lecture on youtube, and at the end of it trying to sell you their "magic indicator" packaged with bunch of .pdfs and videos at a deeply discounted rate. Don't get me wrong, I actually found some of these quite useful. But you are spot on one thing - most trader's "bottleneck" in being successful is not knowing whether 21 EMA is better than 20 EMA, but their own psychology of wanting to be right overruling the primary goal they are in the game - being profitable.

I have an inborn allergy to "experts", and often challenge many before I accept them as such, albeit after seeing a few posts from you mentioning just a few pearls - (using ADR for SL rather than Ticks and almost opposite mindset for Trend days vs range days, etc.) -I was sold, those were exactly the same things I came up with myself, but took weeks to months of trial and errors as a beginner.

Probably the single most important advice you gave - and I have already been doing - is seeing inordinate amount of data ourselves, to develop it as a skill, rather than blindly follow any single one or any single thing. It's just for beginners - looking at the price action is like Chinese characters, and unless given the meaning of each character - one can stare at it all their life and won't get far. People like you provide the "cleanest" and most straightforward definition of those characters - that's what I am talking about. Our brain (yet) is the best "deep machine learning" computer we have. One just needs to push through enough data with the right mindset (let the reality shape the logic, not the wishful thinking).

Thank you once again, and very much looking forward to future posts. I hope there are a few more people like yourself on this forum (though even just you are sufficient). I am very new here and just starting to dig on all the existing good stuff (Spoonalysis, etc.).


tigertrader View Post
@yoyotrader1, I posted this yesterday on another thread; however, it seems especially appropriate for this thread...

There really isn't that many different ways of approaching trading correctly, but there are an infinite number of ways to trade incorrectly. Unfortunately, higher visibility is a user level factor, and the acquisition of information and adoption of that information transfers almost instantaneously when it is readily available, versus when one has to seek it out and perception of adoption is non-existent.

Obviously, there are many more failed traders than successful traders, so there is a very high probability, that there is a commensurate amount of bad advice and faulty knowledge available to aspiring newbie traders. In other words, what-they-see-is what-they-get. The stuff that really works takes time and is hard work to uncover. That is, the methodological wrapper for inductively organizing the information gathered is accomplished through quasi-experimentation.

The other problem is, people believe what they want to believe, see what they want to see, and hear what they want to hear. They tend to avoid information that contradicts what they already think or believe, and tend to seek out other like-minded people. Itís the guiding force behind organized religion, the political system, cults, and yes...forums.

Researchers found that people are about twice as likely to select information that supports their own point of view (67 percent) as to consider an opposing idea (33 percent) and 3 times as reluctant to consider differing perspective when it pertains to politics and religion. One could only imagine what the percentage is when it comes to money and trading -probably 95-99%, huh? I've seen this phenomenon repeat itself ad infinitum on this forum. Big Mike and other experienced traders will dole out advice, and it is summarily ignored or even refuted, by aspiring traders with little experience.

It is not only easy to get sidetracked, spun around, and derailed by the markets, but one can also be misled if the information they are receiving is apocryphal. Everyone wants to make money, but with respect to what? Everyone one wants to wrestle the gorilla, until the door opens. So, instead of making rational decisions based on objective observation, they make emotional decisions that make them feel safe and comfortable. They develop a compulsive addiction to this stimulus-response loop which reduces them to instant-gratification junkies. They may have a seemingly effective methodology that generates profitable trades, but in the end, they never get ahead because they end giving it all back in the rake and grind. They either choose the markets-they-trade and the strategies-they-use randomly, or once again, make the decision based on comfort.

The result is that 80% of the ideas that are freely exchanged on this site are invalid. They are misguided, anachronistic, simplistic, irrelevant and often just plain wrong. The dilemma is, how does one separate the wheat from the chaff. Logic would dictate, and it is confirmed from my personal experience, that the best place to seek knowledge is from someone who is extremely knowledgeable and experienced. So for starters, i would question the quality of the sources of the advice you are seeking, and look to those individuals who are proven and have successfully accomplished what you seek to achieve.

Rational traders incorporate risk into the determination of their expectation, because their approach is reason-based, rather than driven by emotion. They are able to build positions, add to their positions, and follow the move-to-the-end. They focus on getting bigger, and size their trades to get the maximum compounded growth of their capital relative to the amount of risk they are willing to incur, and they trade the markets and use the strategies that allows them to accomplish these goals. They realize and accept that markets vary from day-to-day and even intra-day, and that it is unwise to trade the market the same way, on days that aren't alike.

Forums can be beneficial and I would certainly argue that more education is preferable to less, provided the education doesn't impede someone's ability to reason things through for themselves. And provided the knowledge that is imparted is accurate and doesnít mislead itís readers.. In order to effectively convey ideas to others, you must amend their perspective and their point of reference, so that they may see it anew, and from an entry point that they will understand. To spare them the inevitable beatings of otherwise learning it the hard way is not often appreciated until its too late.

I realize this is very theoretical sounding and not very practical in nature, but it is not without its reason. Learn to think critically (& on your own) and don't be a follower. The way you choose to learn and acquire expertise in trading is as important as the actual process. So, give it careful thought and approach it logically - develop a plan to learn and then execute the plan. Forget about popular opinion and don't take anything at face value. Organize and filter your ideas and determine what is relevant, but allow conflicting ideas to generate new conclusions. Keep in mind, that in theory, there is no difference between theory and practice, but in practice there is.


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  #18 (permalink)
Buffalo, NY
 
 
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if you have a journal of all your trades, analyze it. wouldnt it be wonderful if you can just take the opposite side of the losing trades that you have been making ?

from the journal analysis, what kind of losses were you having ?
- time of the day (getting smack at the 9.30am open ?)
- trading news event
- timeframe risk/reward, scalping 1 min but expecting 10 points ?

good posts in this thread from others, I would suggest MTF approach 1min/5min/15min for example.



tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app


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  #19 (permalink)
canada
 
 
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Thank you to everyone who replied. I will be going through all of the posts this evening

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  #20 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Continuum
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tonybravo View Post
Thank you to everyone who replied. I will be going through all of the posts this evening

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@tonybravo Let me add my 2 cents.

You need to start looking more long term. Scalping intraday is a tough world. I did this for awhile with good success and then a lot of not so much success. Back and forthÖMade me sick! I suggest you swing trade the MES. You are going to need more Capital than $1000. I think I could start over with about $2640. Thatís double the initial margin. You might need more, depending on the strategy you develop.

Find a strategy looking for mean reversion. The ES or MES are mathematically more profitable buying lows and selling highs. You can make money with trend trading, but the more trades you take, you will have a much lower win loss ratio and worse average win to average loss than with mean reversion. The one down fall to mean reversion is it works better with no Stops. This will make your MAE higher, but with consistent trading you will reap the benefits. You can always place an extreme emergency stop but keep it out of the way.
Over time you will build your capital and then can start adding contracts, Avg. Down, etc.

So for nowÖ.. stop trading and save some capital. While you are waiting, find a strategy that can mathematically make money. Get to know it well. Practice it in sim. Learn to trust it.

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  #21 (permalink)
College Point, NY, USA
 
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

just one month? i would say an edge, one that fits your personality / style / goal...., really takes a lot longer than that to figure out.

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  #22 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Philly, Pa
 
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WoodyFox View Post
@tonybravo Let me add my 2 cents.

You need to start looking more long term. Scalping intraday is a tough world. I did this for awhile with good success and then a lot of not so much success. Back and forthÖMade me sick! I suggest you swing trade the MES. You are going to need more Capital than $1000. I think I could start over with about $2640. Thatís double the initial margin. You might need more, depending on the strategy you develop.

Find a strategy looking for mean reversion. The ES or MES are mathematically more profitable buying lows and selling highs. You can make money with trend trading, but the more trades you take, you will have a much lower win loss ratio and worse average win to average loss than with mean reversion. The one down fall to mean reversion is it works better with no Stops. This will make your MAE higher, but with consistent trading you will reap the benefits. You can always place an extreme emergency stop but keep it out of the way.
Over time you will build your capital and then can start adding contracts, Avg. Down, etc.

So for nowÖ.. stop trading and save some capital. While you are waiting, find a strategy that can mathematically make money. Get to know it well. Practice it in sim. Learn to trust it.

you're overcharging for your advice...

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  #23 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
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tigertrader View Post
you're overcharging for your advice...

LOL. Advice is cheap.

"I always say that you could publish trading rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them,"

Good old Richard. Boy was he so right!

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  #24 (permalink)
Toronto, ON
 
Experience: Intermediate
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

In this market you should probably not be trying to trade - certainly not with a 10 tick stop. Big Mike is right on the money. !0 points would be more realistic. But the stop is only one piece of the puzzle. Unless you have a trade plan with a demonstrated edge you are throwing your money away.

Good luck!

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  #25 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
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Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also ED&F and Tradestation
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tonybravo View Post
Should I just withdrawal and go home

Yes

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  #26 (permalink)
Mumbai India
 
 
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Hi Tony,
Even before you place an order for 1 or many contracts be it any market for that matter you should ask yourself the following:
1. What is my purpose?
2. Do I have system and a set process to follow this purpose
3. I am abiding to the basic risk management rules

I think the reason everytime you get varied results with your trading is because of not following a set system or a process. I would still persist in trading a max of 1-3 markets and learn to master them first. Try and make whatever your system you are following objective and rule based.
For example I am Demand and Supply trader and I primary use price action and no indicators on my chart to trade but just because this works for me the same might not work for you because we are different. Have a stop loss for the day and also a set profit target for the day so that you donít over trade and give back the money you have made. Follow one system and try and master it. Trading for a living is not easy but not impossible if you have the right mindset. Discipline is key. Just wanted to share a few cents of my experience with you. All the best and happy trading Also trade on a sim account and use the same risk management rules that you would on a love account. Only once you are comfortable and see results coming in then only shift to a live account....
Cheers,
Vishal

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  #27 (permalink)
Milan + Italy
 
 
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app


Can You simulate Your strategy in a software including/excluding commissions and increasing timeframe?

Most of the time You find that You do better on longer timeframes, with simpler strategies with less trades rather then complex ones with lots of rules.

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  #28 (permalink)
Bay Area, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation, TOS
Trading: Futures, Equities, Options on Futures
 
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

If you truly are consistently directionally wrong as you say you are, and your P/L curve is nicely trending from top left to bottom right, then that sounds like a potential edge to me, just reverse your long/short positions! This assumes your losses are due to market direction, not slippage and commissions. It also assumes you have some sort of well defined rules you are following for entering and exiting positions.

With regards to "should I withdraw and go home or keep trying to get better." It sounds like you are trying to find an edge by live trading. This can be very expensive.... Much better to discover your edge paper trading and/or backtesting, then confirm it's a real edge by live trading. Any test sample under 30 trades will not give you reliable insight of the existence of an edge. Ideally 100 trades or more.

Be mindful that any edge you find is likely to be temporary, and you need to stop trading it when it stops working.

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  #29 (permalink)
Philadelphia, Pa
 
Experience: Intermediate
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You want an edge? Get the edge the big boys use.
Read J. Peter Steadlmyre's book Steidlmayer on Markets. Learn it, Understand it. Then apply it to Volume Profiles. Start there and you're on the road to understanding the markets. And, Learn take a loss! It's not the end of the day. It's not about being WRONG! It's about making money. It's about finding a cheap entry point and then a profitable exit. A "cheap" entry will keep your losses small and manageable if your hypothesis is wrong. It's not personal! It's about understanding the market and willing to be caught on the wrong side now and then.
Winston Churchill said it best, "Never, never, never, never give up."
This business is very, very difficult, until it isn't......
Better days ahead.
N

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  #30 (permalink)
Ashburn, VA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8, ThinkorSwim
Broker: TD Ameritrade (currently)
Trading: MES MNQ
 
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I left the game for years after losing thousands. Recently I began paper trading again, really trying to understand reading the market structure. Every trader's journey is different. I always try to live by the old saying "If you want to get out of the hole, stop digging" Take a break... educate yourself (don't buy indicators, there is no holy grail other than education that you can get online...) .... again don't buy a bunch of indicators, if you can't find it here then there is nothing "out there" that you're going to find.

So basically yea, if you're down 20% I'd take a pause, evaluate if you need to go back to paper trading to hone in on your issues, be it emotional or technical.

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  #31 (permalink)
Bodoe , Norway
 
 
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Have you done any trading on sim or done any backtesting of your strategy?
...if not.. then that would be a very good way to start of before doing any more live trading...

Here is a good video if you have an edge and want to get moving forward :


Good luck!

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  #32 (permalink)
Palma de Mallorca/Spain
 
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Automate your strategy to remove emotions and human mistakes. Test it in different markets : ranging, uptrend, downtrend. Adjust all. Then start in Sim and observe for sometime. Then start again in live.

You should be a professional with a lot of hours of trading and accounts destroyed in your back to win money in this bussines.
Remember that most of the retail traders lose money. You are not an exception. Leave the Robot work for you.

Bernard
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  #33 (permalink)
North Carolina, US
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TOS, NT, MT4
Trading: ES, /6J, CL, GC, etc...
 
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge...

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If you have no edge or don't know from where your edge is coming from -you should not be trading. You should be spending your capital researching/working on developing an edge, and then on saving to "fund" a trading account... btw: even if you have an edge (several edges actually) to make trading worthwhile, you need seizable trading account; otherwise, this is a losing preposition.

Yes, yes, we all read that Bruce Kovner borrowed $3,000 on his MasterCard back 1977, and today he is worth 5 billions, but the likelihood of repeating that must be 1 in 7 billions per decade... buying a winning lotto ticket is more probable like 1 in 15 million.

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  #34 (permalink)
Richmond VA/USA
 
 
Posts: 2 since Feb 2015
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Hey Tony.

I suggest that you move (back?) to demo mode until you have established a repeatable edge. Sounds like you are the victim of hopeium the same stuff that many of us have overdosed on.

It is good that you are bleeding slowly (MES instead of ES) but I am not sure if you are following a trading plan that produces positive results. Getting "Lucky"is one of the worst things that can happen for it offers a double portion of hopeium and encourages you to trade out side the lines of the Proven Trading Plan. Do you have one, written or thought out? Write it out so that you can reference it clearly and modify it as market conditions change.

Save you capital until you have a good reason to believe in your plan, (repeated success in demo mode).

I am sure that others will chime in with sage advice but that should be a good start.

Hang in there man, it does get better if you put the time in!

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  #35 (permalink)
coplay pa
 
 
Posts: 2 since Oct 2015
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Sorry for a very straight forward reply! No Edge No trading, otherwise its a gamble.

Spend time looking for a edge that you like. Invest time in that. I have spent lot of time just trying to figure out what is my edge.

Yet working on it.

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  #36 (permalink)
Lagos, Nigeria
 
 
Posts: 3 since Oct 2018
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Hello Tony,

I'm sorry you feel the way you do. A few things though. Your edge will only work when you have a good risk management (RM) model and you stick with it. With a disciplined obedience to your RM you could trade a system that has a lower win rate and still be profitable. Accuracy in market prediction is hardly an edge. You just need to be sure that you consistently make more money when you're right than you lose when you're wrong.

The ultimate question, I guess, is do you think you have the discipline to follow a trading system or not. If yes, hang in there, and look for a mentor. If no, you could try algorithmic trading and not be a discretionary trader. If none of those two work, maybe you should let trading go and pursue another career where decision making won't be your responsibility.

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  #37 (permalink)
Hilo Hawaii
 
Experience: Beginner
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Hi Tony;

I understand what you are going thru. I was like that also. Now I know that trading futures is not easy especially when you are losing. My advice is to take a look at Emini Stock Index Trading Room | Live Trading Room | Learn to Day Trade | Learn How to Trade S&P Emini Futures Trading Room and Day Trading Education. Now I am not here to promote anything. You still have to spend money. Look at what is being used at this site. I am now using this trading setup and have had terrific results.Now no trading is 100% accurate but learning this will keep you on the right side. Hope this helps.

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  #38 (permalink)
Westlake, Oh
 
Experience: Beginner
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

I don't know for sure how long you have been trading but if your trying to learn to trade with real money no mater your account size, don't do it. You MUST first trade a Sim account and have patience. Also I found that trading with one contract is difficult to make money. Good luck.

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  #39 (permalink)
Gilbert Arizona
 
 
Posts: 6 since Mar 2017
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Let me help you out. If you're just trading direction(long/short), you have no edge. Its statically proven. If on the other hand you're trading options, a small edge could be had, maybe(60-40), but good luck managing that tight spread. Market conditions/volatility etc can skew that with ease. You need truck loads of cash to make it feasible.

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  #40 (permalink)
Columbus
 
 
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Online forums are NOT where you will find the answers. 95 percent of the people on these things are losing money as well.

(I can make it in FX, can't do it in Futures - as a full admission to being no better than anyone else. )

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  #41 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 2 since Jun 2018
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I agree with everyone here who says that you shouldn't be trading if you do not know what your edge is.

As I can see no charts, it is difficult to tell but it seems like your entries are guesses. A 10 tick stop in ES is nothing, so price better be already going in your direction strongly before you enter with such a tight stop. However, to do that you need to be able to read the tape really well and have enough experience to judge that the turn is really in.

Trade SIM, as if it was real money, and work out your strategy. Read up on some good trading books. I recommend Mike Bellafiore's "The Playbook" and "One Good Trade". The goal is to figure out one profitable strategy and get really good at it. Do that in SIM, make money, then move to MES, make money, then move up to ES. After you have one strategy down pat (do not be surprised if this takes you 1 to 2 years and most can't make it even that far because they do not have what it takes to become a trader) then you can start to expand your strategy portfolio.

This is a full time job. It needs hard work recording and reviewing and re-living every trade you make to see what went wrong, what you could have done better, and what went right. Multiply your opportunities to trade by investing in a good charting platform like SierraChart which will allow you to replay the market.

If you are not willing to do all that work then stop now. Save your money and do something else.

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  #42 (permalink)
Charleston West Virginia United states of America
 
 
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Man the es is hard to trade. Watch jigsaw order flow training videos, try the nq and scalp it.

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  #43 (permalink)
Frankfurt Germany
 
 
Posts: 14 since Apr 2020

I can understand that well. I often feel the same way. Many here tell the truth and are honest. As for the numerous "offers" of strategies, indicators, etc. for money. My very personal opinion: Let it be! All of them want your money. No more! Don't let anything else tell you. Find your own style. Work on it every day. and most important of all: keep it simple!
Finally, a book I can recommend: 20 Most Common Trading Mistakes: And How You Can Avoid Them by K. Butcher.
Have a nice day....
Monika

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  #44 (permalink)
 
 
FuturesTrader71's Avatar
 
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Welcome to the 2nd Stage of Competence > Finally knowing that you don't know what you need to know.

This is not a bad place to be for a cost of just $280. There is hope, in my opinion, because you named this thread exactly right. The fact that you are realizing that you have no edge tells me that you are being realistic.

@BigMike responded with the ADR and knowing what your product's volatility is on a daily basis. That is a good metric to get a general idea from on what your risk in the product might be.

In my opinion, you will want to figure out a whole bunch of stuff and put it all together in what is a business plan which will govern your trading plan. Until you have done this, you are simply doing this for entertainment (and there is nothing wrong with that...we don't judge). A few things you need to figure out are:
  1. What is your purpose for trading? Hobby/entertainment or career?
  2. How much time can you afford to devote to this? Money can be lost and won, but time is never recovered. Whatever time you give yourself, double it and you are closer to what it will take
  3. How much money are you willing to invest in your education?
  4. What is your risk tolerance? Can you see through a 30 pt drawdown? Would you prefer to have small gains but also small losses?
  5. What will your trading time frame be? Will you be trading for scalps? 10 min holds? Holding for hours? Days? Investing?
  6. Do you have an understanding of the auction and why the market moves?
  7. Do you want to trade based on technical or fundamental analysis or both?
  8. If technical, what makes sense to you? What is appealing to you? What have you tried?
  9. Once you know what you want to use, are you prepared to be the foremost expert on that tool? That's what it takes
  10. What is your risk plan? How much is reasonable to risk to find out if your bias (long/short), location, duration and stop are in agreement with the market?
  11. What are the milestones/goals that you need to hit? Are they performance based or P&L based?
  12. Are you trading to make big $$? If so, you will get more satisfaction by simply sending that money to a good cause. Your purpose has to be about solving the puzzle for yourself using your own individual process and ideas and then to become obsessed with executing it perfectly. The money comes if there is an edge and your emotions remain in check

That is just an abridged list. There is more to it, but those are a few things that you need to consider.

You are blessed in that the micros exist. It used to cost a lot more to learn.

By the way, have your broker set a hard stop for you on a daily basis. This is going to be important until you fully learn how to manage your response to stress.

Yes, in my opinion, this can be done and is done by others. It is really about your commitment to it.

Best of luck!

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #45 (permalink)
ROY, Utah
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation
 
Posts: 80 since Apr 2020
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Go back to practice trading until you start making a profit

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  #46 (permalink)
Las Vegas, NV
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMPFutures
Trading: Emini Futures, Futures
 
Posts: 3 since Apr 2018
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You can't get a QUICK solution to trading. That's like getting into a formula one race car the 1st time and expecting to win the race, not going to happen. Suggest NOT trading live but SIM, until you know what your doing or your just throwing away money. Read all you can on what Candles mean and Support and Resistance. That will keep you busy for the first 3 years. Trading is NOT a video game it's a REAL job, you have to put in the work, time and learn. Sorry for the realty check.

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  #47 (permalink)
Antibes
 
 
Posts: 3 since Apr 2020
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Hi Tony,
I am not an experienced professional trader. As such I usually don't post on this forum where many great traders have so much clever things to say.
However, in your specific case I think I can give my 2 cents:

I have been trading for more than 10 years, as an amateur: perhaps 1% of my time is trading.
My "way of trading" is choosing the right time, the right time scale, and the right market. The ones I feel comfortable predicting moves.

I paper trade for a few days, build a strategy, and when I feel like this strategy can be profitable, I trade, with big capital. I try to be patient and trade only patterns and indicators that I am comfortable with, and that seem to work right now for the market / context. Keep in mind that current covid context is very specific. Sometimes you will feel like the market is not following any predictable pattern, indicator, trend that you are currently using. That's when you have to stop : if I am not making profit anymore, I "reboot" my mind. I stop trading for a while, read books, relax. You need to be relaxed and self-confident in order to make profit. If you are not self confident you will doubt your strategy, you will keep changing your mind, and you will stop trading and start gambling.

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  #48 (permalink)
Ft Lauderdale + FL/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8, IB TOS
Broker: IB & NT8
Trading: ES, ZB, YM, GC SI
 
Posts: 7 since Mar 2017
Thanks: 1 given, 2 received

Having an edge means making your trading more mechanical. Looking for setups that justify a risk for a certain reward. If you were only going to read one trading book then read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas, then I would check out Trading the Measured Move by David Halsey (you can also find him at https://www.eminiaddict.com/, live daily. That will help you go a long way to finding your own edge. Good Luck

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  #49 (permalink)
Las Vegas, NV United States
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, TF
 
Posts: 1 since Oct 2012
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A possibility is to look into NOBS trading room. Like the acronym, these guys are no bullshit. You start performing simple pullback trades during stacked EMAs. You trade sim and post your trades in the room while they critique. It's tough love but you don't go live until you've met their criteria. I see it as a trading Bootcamp. In addition, you have a set ATM strategy and a goal for each day.

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  #50 (permalink)
St. Paul, Minnesota
 
 
Posts: 3 since Dec 2018
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I found this NQ trader who has been profitable; but his trading style is not suitable for small accounts. He trades without a stop and will average down (add to loosing trades). If you have been exposed to markets for a while and understand price actions to place your stop, you might want to check his live youtube channel called "The Quant007"

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOb1xQVNbfpJLwPhsGRA7Fg

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  #51 (permalink)
Largo Florida USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 12 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 1 given, 5 received


tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Try trading before the cat herd starts up from 5AM till 8AM, the algos seem to not retrace as much at those times..

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  #52 (permalink)
Calgary AB/Canada
 
 
Posts: 3 since Oct 2018
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Imho there is no real edge other than buy and hold and average down. You can try to take profits and try to re enter lower but that's tough to do consistently. Of course people selling every trading idea will say averaging down, aka DCA is foolish.good luck

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  #53 (permalink)
Newport Beach
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 2 since Jun 2016
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You need to get serious! If this was easy everybody would live on large yachts, in penthouses or palatial estates. That's the candy we all digest at one time or another, but taking a course(s) or reading a book(s) alone won't entitle you to make millions all of a sudden - seriously. There's no edge in that approach as you aptly point out. Nobody is going to give you an edge, but many will offer to sell you an edge that fits you perfectly. You need to discover what fits YOUR desires, abilities, and style and develop your edge. Think in terms of half decades or decades to get good enough to be CONSISTENTLY profitable all the while you are honing and refining and adapting and modifying your edge. You might be frustrated with the school and your teacher. You've already been taught the value and importance of consistency, but haven't yet embraced it. Can you scalp just one tick consistently? How would you do that? What edge might you have or develop to do that?
IMHO, keep your day job and trade SIM exclusively until you have developed a process that works consistently in SIM. Then trade that process in SIM without limit orders, only market orders. If you can do that you will have an edge. Understand what that is.
Join trading groups, leave them, and join others. Take courses and then purge yourself of all you've just paid money to learn. Ask, was he a guru or a good salesman, or a little of both? How does that make you feel? Open up to your emotions and learn from them. Read books and then seriously wonder if the author is or was ever trading let alone (consistently) profitable. Was the author developing elaborate screens and then investing with a stop and pronouncing himself a trader, or was he actually trading: Thereís a big difference. If this sounds like too much work or a ridiculous way of approaching your education, you're right. And that's where the alluring siren that goes by the name Trading lives. In time, you will begin to find a path, or not. In time you will either decide it is a [blood] sport you want to compete in or not. After all, as you now know, it's easy to make money trading. The only difficult part is keeping that money in your account.

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  #54 (permalink)
Raleigh NC/USA
 
 
Posts: 4 since Apr 2019
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Bear in mind, you should be monitoring all the equties to trade just one.. to d the best setup.
Time of day your "entry" was created. And higher time frames have more risk and more probability. Find lower time frames inside the bigger ones.

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  #55 (permalink)
Crete, IL/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Mt4
Broker: Tradestation/Tradestation, NinjaTrader, FXCM and Tallinex
Trading: ES, CL, EUR/USD, TF
 
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Posts: 181 since Aug 2009
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I would paper trade for a while and focus on two things for right now:
1. trade management strategy calibrated to your market
2. your entry point

the first one also assumes you have the money management portion figured out. i.e. how much money do you have and how many contracts are you willing to trade at one time
For example: I am doing Top Step Trader right now and I find that in order to meet their requirements for $150k combine, I cannot trade more than 3 contracts at a time in the ES market

I also set my stops anywhere from 16 ticks minimum to as much as 12 handles max
It depends on what kind of trade I am doing.

But if I am going long/short trend and it is happening now and it is about to continue after a pullback or basing, the 16 ticks is where I want to be
but If I am wrong and wanting to exit, then sometimes widening the stop works or if I am looking for a bigger move ---- like if the market is showing signs of the beginning of a sell off.

Anyway, I still have a lot to work through, but I am getting close to completing the combine and getting funded.

You need to also look into why YOU lose.
For me, I get impulsive and jump into trades at the wrong point. I have somewhat reckless behavior. That is seen and I am putting in more and more rules to counter that so it works in my favor rather than against me.

It used to be a problem of not using stop losses and in some accounts it is still the case, but this is getting fixed because you have to use stop losses for Top Step
Not that they require it but it is mostly because I realized otherwise the daily loss will always be hit.

Second, you need to tighten the stop to break even after it almost hits your target 1
For me, my target 1 is like 8 ticks so my stop to break even is when it moves 5 ticks in my favor

7 times out of 10 it will then hit target 1. But more importantly is at that point I CANNOT LOSE on that trade.

Trading isn't about how much you make it is about how much you don't lose.

So work on your entry strategy and based on that how much adverse excursion and favorable excursion (max profit and max loss) should you experience
Formulate your trade management from there.

at some point, tighten to break even after only a small movement

this along with your entry point is the absolute key.

again, it is assuming you are trading small enough not to overtrade. that is given.

good luck!

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  #56 (permalink)
Orlando Florida United States
 
 
Posts: 1 since May 2018
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This is all just my opinion. To me, a small $1000 account necessitates a stop loss. The only way I can see to keep the risk (stop loss) down is to find a methodology that utilizes a smaller stop loss. That is difficult to find in these days of high volatility. So, here's what I suggest: Look for a low stop loss methodology. Sim trade the ES every day while you are doing so, and try to find a charting software that uses market replay so you can review how your methodology worked, before, during, and after the open. Keep learning, And do your level best to start with at least $5000.

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  #57 (permalink)
Bangor Maine
 
 
Posts: 23 since Nov 2018
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Only you and your pocket book can answer that question . I would say if you really have a passion to trade take some of the good advice given here already and sim trade . If you can't make a profit trading sim trading you will never make it live . There needs to be a passion and countless hrs. looking at charts . The ES is not an easy mkt. to trade for a beginner . You are up against the very best traders including institutions . During these crazy times I have been trading the Euro dollar (6E } . I look for one 1 or 2 trades per day during the morning US session and call it quits . Don't over trade , make a print out of every trade you take , good or bad and review them . What has helped me a great deal is I am no longer greedy and will take what the mkt. is willing to give me and patient enough to wait for a trade that fits my plan to come to me . If I don't get one I don't trade that day . It is easy for me to say that as I am retired living off a good pension . If you need to trade to make ends meet that is not a good place for a new trader , any good profession wasn't learned overnight and it can take years to become a good trader .

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  #58 (permalink)
Newnan Ga/US
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Emini ES/CL/GC
 
Posts: 7 since Feb 2020
Thanks: 4 given, 9 received

Well, the first (and Iíd say, most important) thing that sticks out is that you have no trading plan. ďIím trading blindĒ is a huge red flag! What is qualifying the long trade? The short trade? What is your criteria for getting out of a trade once youíre in? Profit target/risk level? You are only trading one micro contract on a $720 account. A $50 loss on the day seems really high. Having a well developed trading plan should and will answer all of these questions, and more! A lot of us here, I would assume, have traded real money long before we were prepared too. I politely suggest that you are doing that as well. To your credit, you are asking the questions you are before your small account is blown up. So congratulations! Bottom line, do your due diligence and create your trading plan and that should give you all the answers for when, how and why to get into and out of a trade. As far as whether you should just walk away, the fact that you care enough to post here tells me that you want to trade, so donít give up, just change your process! I hope this helps and good luck!

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  #59 (permalink)
Scarborough
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Trading: Emini ES
 
Posts: 27 since Apr 2020


tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app



I know what Iím about to say is going to hurt a little but weíve all had to do it when we first start trading. First of all, trading with only a grand is going to put a lot of pressure on you to get it right. It is going to create fear in you because of the fear of losing it. So, what you need to do is hold on to your cash and make your mistakes in simulation trading. Take 1000 dollars and at least try to double it. I tried it. You can do it but you will find it extremely difficult because of ones natural tendencies to want more than what the market is giving us. Therefore you will want to try to trade with a sim account starting with 5000 and trade Eminis and not micros. Try to double it before you trade real money. The problem with micros is it breeds greed. You need or want more money so you will not be satisfied with what it gives you. It forces you to over trade and stretch too much. Eventually you lose by giving it all back.

Your issue right now is multi dimensional. You need money to make money. You have fear built up in your mind which you need to overcome. You can only do that by understanding how the market or instrument you trade moves. You can only get this understanding by spending time watching and simulating the price action. You need to learn to accept or overcome the fear of losing to gain confidence. While you trade simulation save your money till you get about 5000. This way, you will not be panicking every time the market moves a little bit against you. You can handle a little pain.

Now this pain can be avoided if you know what your instruments support is going to be. You can find this by using the Fibonacci tool which unfortunately I can not explain to you here. You can also look to see what the previous days low was to give you an idea how much the instrument can and possibly will pull back to from its highs, at which point you will buy with confidence in anticipation of an upward movement.

With one ES contract you will make 500 bucks on a 10 point move which should not be a problem if you are buying at support.

Your challenge is going to be learning how to be patient and wait for it. The other will be learning to not take a short while you are learning to find your instruments support. Your third will be learning to be content with not more than one or two trades a day. More than three trades will put you brain in gambling mode. This is when you will give your gains back to the market.

So as you can see, the journey is not just about making money but mastering your emotions, understanding your instrument and how it behaves, and money management.

At the end of your trading day, write down what you did right and what you did wrong. Close your computer and wait for another trading day with a fresh mind.

Start your day with finding your trading range and the general sentiment of the market. Are we up, or are we down. Are we heading up or down. How did Asia close, how is Europe doing, How will it affect North American markets. Where is my bias? Where is support? Where can I expect the market to come down to before I take a long position. Allow the market to convince you that it is going long before you get it.

The market is full of bait. But at some point it would have scared all those without a plan to get out and take all those with a plan for the ride. Wait for all the suckers to get off the bus, then take your place in first class.

Remember, you must overcome fear, you must build your account, you must know your instrument and how it behaves, you must know where ultimate support is and where resistance is going to be once it starts moving up. You must overcome greed. Take small wins. Do not trade for more than 2 hours. If you canít read the markets direction then stay out. If it is not ready for you , you will be thrown out with the rest after it has chopped you up.

This is how I have been taught to trade, and in the last two weeks I have never lost a trade. If you buy right you will grow your account. You have to buy right. Take the time to learn the instrument then You will be ready to trade. Right now you are not. Trust me, Iíve been there. You have real work to do. The easy part is making the money. The hard part is your emotions, greed and things you are not even aware of. But you will do it if you take the time and sacrifice the time now. All the money you have lost will be made back in a week, easily.

You can do it, donít give up, express your frustrations on paper. Journal and you will have a friend talking back to you soon. Be patient and put in the time to simulate and observe the behaviour of your instrument. Focus on one instrument at a time. Donít trade multiple instruments.

Get it right and it will treat you right.

Have your plan and trade your plan. Everything else is noise.

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  #60 (permalink)
Brazil
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tryd
Trading: Options, Stocks, in this order
 
DanielTrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 42 since Oct 2016
Thanks: 91 given, 47 received

I didn't read other comments, but how long are you trading? how much did you studied? don't start doing day trading, try to start with something else. practice in the simulator. check you investment capital. it's not easy to get rich investing a thousand dollars and to pay your bills with the results.
Anyway try to study and to learn with your losses. If you need any help let me know.




tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app


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  #61 (permalink)
Lewiston Idaho
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjatTrader
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 50 since Mar 2015
Thanks: 9 given, 72 received

A tibdit. Your mouse is the meal. The market is a rattlesnake. If you're scalping in the equities, especially NQ, YM, RTY, but also ES at prime time hours, you have to set your stops and targets where the strikes miss the first (stops) but snags the second (targets). If you only set stops and not targets you guarantee you'll suffer stop strikes and never catch target strikes because your mouse won't usually know the strike occurred until its over and ghen your screen paints it and your speaker tells you the news.

Another tibdbit: Markets are very efficient in filling pockets, that is places where price move through a range without retesting the price levels in that range at least once. If the market goes your way and you didn't catch very near the absolute top or bottom of the swing level you are trading, you'll be tempted when price goes your way to move your stops to breakeven, hoping the first retracement toward entry won't stop you out. You're playing bad odds to hope for that. Either grab the first stretch in your direction with a well placed stop and re-enter on the pocket fill, or leave your stops alone at least until the second wave in your direction occurs. although if its a major turning point there will likely be more than one pullback and lots of testing before a sharp break in your direction.

If trading multiple contracts you can "campaign" into a position by setting more entries at favorable levels (high side of or above sideways noise if shorting). The problem with campaigning with micros if just scalping for 10 or 20 ticks is micros cost 3 times minis for the same commitment, so scalping multiple contracts with micros eats up profits you've made three times faster. A work around is to wait for a major entry level and use a mini to get in then scale partially out with micros if wanting to take some of the position off.

By the way, taking part of profits off half way to your target but not taking part of losses off until your full stop is hit is stacking the odds against you if target to stop ratio isn't better than 2 to 1 (to cover commissions).

If you set targets at strategic levels (not just x ticks of profit), if you're right about target level to expect you'll be tempted to close the trade before your target is filled on those frequent occasions when price almost reaches your target and pulls back from it, eating up your profits. Be patient. Seems the bots work at persuading you to get out prematurely. If it were your stop and not your target you as a novice would likely leave your stop alone when price pulls back from it, again damaging your target to stop ratio by cutting targets short but letting stops get hit. Be fair.

Last tidbit: If you use market orders you lose minimum of two ticks on every round trip, one on entry on exit. If scalping for a few ticks that's a heavy weight to swim with.

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  #62 (permalink)
Vancouver, Canada
 
 
Posts: 3 since Feb 2019
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Hello Tony,

You are most likely absolutely correct. You might not have any edge yet. And you are on the right track by atleast acknowledging that; now the search is on. One key tip; dont assume anyone over the internet will hand you over the keys though. No one selling any subscription for any amount will do that for you. You will have to work hard at it and find something that works for you. Starting with how to find that edge.. and how to define it if you actually find something; and its going to be a long and rough ride. In the meantime save yourself heartache and trade as small as possible just to keep at the game.

One good resource to look for are books: read everything you can find.

Also if you go towards trading futures in and out; perhaps quantitative trading is what you should lean for instead of gut based which you cant quantify either ways. Perhaps not. Either ways searching for that will lead you to profitable places i hope.




tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app


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  #63 (permalink)
Toronto, Omtario/Canada
 
 
Posts: 2 since Jul 2015
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Its very hard to make an assessment of where you are failing.

Trading involves many aspects:

1. The Type of trading you feel comfortable with (scalping or longer term trading)
2. Tolerance levels to drawdowns
3. How much pressure you have in trying to make a profit
4. Trading knowledge/experience
5. Capital

At least these 5 criteria or more needs to be carefully examined before you can trade successfully.

Try to learn each aspect before you actually try to trade live.

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  #64 (permalink)
Syracuse, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: Mirus Futures/Zen-Fire
Trading: NQ
 
Posts: 114 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 21 given, 82 received

Tony,
I see lots of good advise here....good....Just wondering why you were going long....did you have a breakout of a MACD, or SMA Crossover, or the TDI was breaking to the high side or your ADX was rising, or the OBV was flying high....what exactly was your logic for going long....or was it just the price rising....the answer will tell us what you are doing and we can then help you...

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  #65 (permalink)
La Mesa, CA, USA
 
Experience: None
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 1 since Oct 2018
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You have already received on the whole good advice. I will highlight a few things.
First three old market maxims:
1. Know your edge, if you don't know what it is, you don't have one.
2. Always trade with a stop. It can be a "disaster stop", placed where you don't think the market is likely to go.
3. Scared money loses. Never risk money you need for your expenses.

4.Practice in SIM until you are profitable.

5.Use this calculator: https://evilspeculator.com/futuresRcalc/
Set your stop at .25 to .5% of your account size.
Calculate the ATR for the time frame you are trading and multiply by 2.5 to 3. If that stop is outside the .25 to .5% of your account size, then you need more capital to go live or you can pass on trading until volatility settles down. Don't think you can keep reducing the time frame to be able to trade with less risk, you will have lag time in decisions, order placement, execution.

6. To scalp you must be nimble on executions. Learn to set up OCO orders, so you always have profit targets and stops in place and the opposite side cancels automatically.

7. View the market in multiple time frames. 1, 5 and 15 min has been suggested to you. Consider 5 minutes and less as very noisy and full of head fakes. Do not try to trade several time frames.
Use the middle frame as your trading chart, the quick one for refining entries, the longer of the three for an indication of the larger direction. You should always also look at larger time frames, such as hourly and daily. Always keep the daily in view and mark potential support & resistance there when you are between sessions.

8. Monitor your psychology (inner self-talk) and physical stamina. Are you sick? Don't trade.
Are you feeling negative or didn't sleep well or feel tired? Don't trade. Are you seeing the market as an adversary? Don't trade. You will need to be both alert and relaxed without feeling over-stimulated to have a chance to day-trade successfully.

9. Want what the market wants.

10. Trade Journal. Create a debrief for everything your do. Why? Stops/PT? How effective was entry/exit? How did you feel before/during/after the trade? You can't write too much. Review your previous entries from time to time. Reflect on how your perspective has changed and journal some more about that as well.

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  #66 (permalink)
Vancouver, WA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Jigsaw, MC.NET, ToS, SC
Broker: Stage5,IronBeam/Rithmic, ToS
Trading: Emini ES & YM
 
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Trading is highly competitive -- it takes character, skill, and a lot of work to succeed. And you come out of the swamp every day with leeches all over you -- trading gurus and vendors of all kinds. On a successful day trading micros, my brokers take a big chunk of what I pull out of the Market.

Each of us comes to junctures where doubts and questions arise. We each have to decide for ourselves whether to jump into the ring another day or throw in the towel. I go along with Arnold in my response:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_ktRTWMX3M

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  #67 (permalink)
Boston, MA. United States
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Trading: Futures and Forex
 
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1. You need to get more capital that you can afford to go to zero before you stand a chance of being psychologically able to handle the ups and downs of trading.

2. You need to completely understand what you're doing and why. Learn to program or Bloodhound at least so you can at least understand if your particular system actually works. I can tell you after years of system developement most squiggly lines are useless so move past that.

3. You need to spend a great deal of time testing and incubating your systems on sim before you risk real cash.

4. You need to invest in decent hardware and begin to realize trading is a very serious business and you're competing with people who have vastly more money, experience and resources than you.

Just my opinion but its not just an edge you lack.

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  #68 (permalink)
MŁnchen + Austria
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP+TT order routing
Trading: Emini ES
 
Posts: 6 since Oct 2019
Thanks: 42 given, 8 received

Hi Tony, i need couple of years and loss 10000 Ä before i understand some simple rules.

+Decide how much money you will make every day and on average per trade. (i Start with 5 Point MES)
+How much per average will you lose? (i Start with 5 Point MES)
+Whatís your max loss per trade and per day and per week?
+Find good charting software. (Sierra Chart is free with AMP)+TT Data Feed

I also trade MES, 1 Contract with Small account.


Good luck!

Last Month i made 220 Points with some simple Strategy.
trades


Initial Balance Strategy is very Simple and work good for me

Unbenannt


VWAP from JonnyBoy is also work good for me.
https://futures.io/emini-emicro-index/46813-vwap-volume-weighted-average-price-stock-index-futures-trading-11.html#post796425
vwap

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  #69 (permalink)
Simi Valley CA/USA
 
 
Posts: 1 since Apr 2020
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I would not quit. There is no trader not even the best of the best who do not have losses. The key is to work toward having more wins with bigger profits than losses with smaller amounts. The first thing I would do is paper trade until you find the right approach. On stocks do you day trade, swing trade, or in for the longer holding pattern. If you do stock options again decide on tour style day, swing, 30-60 days. If you are trading futures I would recommend E-mini S&P 500. It is a better market to learn and is a good market because you can trade small accounts as well as large accounts. There are also a lot of traders there so you can always find buyers when you are ready to exit a trade.

The next thing you need to do is concentrate on small wins. Do not shoot for the moon right away. 9 wins of $100 and 1 loss for $50 equals $850. But one win for $500 with 9 losses of $50 equals only a $50 win and if you are going for the bigger win chances are those losses would be around $100 each equalling a $400 loss.

Once you get in a pattern of winning 60% of your trades then you can place larger trades equally. If you are making $300 trades first and are hitting 60% wins then you can step all of your trades to about $500. Do not do some at 300, some at 500 because you cannot positively pick which ones will do better than others. Then as you improve move your trades to about $750 and then later to $1000. Patience and control is the key to success.

The nice thing about the E-mini S&P 500 is you can day trade, swing trade or do longer trades. Options do not fall under the day trading criteria like stocks where you need a minimum of $25k in the account.

I also use some great advisors. I do not promote or advertise for anyone but I personally use Chuck Hughes, Wendy Kirkland, Kyle Dennis, Jason Bond, Trade Alert 365 and others. I find people with extremely high success rates. But even they lose but if I am winning way more than losing I am happy. Their programs are rarely free but you probably payed for a few yearly subscriptions with the amounts it sounds like you lost.

Good Luck
Alan

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  #70 (permalink)
Gainesville, Texas/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: OFA, Jigsaw, Bookmap
Trading: Anything that moves
 
Posts: 20 since Jul 2013
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If you really want to double your money, I suggest you fold it over and put it in your pocket. Good Luck.

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  #71 (permalink)
Richmond Hill
 
 
Posts: 1 since Apr 2020
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Tony, What is your trading plan? What is your trigger to enter a trade?





tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app


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  #72 (permalink)
Tucson Arizona
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES CL 6E 6C 6B
 
Posts: 7 since Aug 2018
Thanks: 0 given, 12 received

There are many mentors out there and most are crap... My turning point was when I took SMB Futures trading course. SMB Futures is a subsidiary of SMB Capital, which is one of the most consistently profitable trading firms on the street. SMB Futures is headed up by Merritt Black and their futures course will help you create a trading plan and the discipline to follow it. As part of their course, SMB has a realtime chat room where Merritt posts his trades, winners and losers. They are the real deal and have a great trading course.. check them out, it may well be what you need.


tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app


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  #73 (permalink)
Houston
 
 
Posts: 6 since Oct 2015
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You have no edge. Granted. You have to keep trading to find your edge. The way to find your edge is to trade a sim account until you do find the edge.

Once you find an edge in sim, keep trading the sim for over 1,500 trades to ensure that the edge holds up over time.

I also recommend you trade the micro contracts, both in sim, and when you feel you have consistent results, start with 1 or maximum 2 micro contracts.

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  #74 (permalink)
Houston
 
 
Posts: 6 since Oct 2015
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Do not throw in the towel. Trade sim until you finally find your edge.

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  #75 (permalink)
Carrollton
 
 
Posts: 1 since Mar 2016
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Tony,
I feel your pain, and I have a supposed edge. I have spent the last 4 years perfecting my chart reading ( price action only) wave theory based on fibonacci percentages for targets and support and resistance zones. I try to trade the 1 , 2, and 3 impulse waves only and avoid the lightning-bolt- like A B C corrective waves. I have also purchased Voodoo lines which give you constant historic support and resistance lines based on Elliot wave theory, which attract the price like a magnet. So I have two great edges and I am still not able to generate any real profits. I am trading the /MNQ ( 4 in one account and 2 in another)
I have managed to stop the losses caused by over trading and from also trying to trade the corrective a,b,c waves. Sometimes trading the B to C wave is a good bet. But like recently, I traded a nice wave 2 impulse wave up and it reached the fibonacci targets so I exited with a trailing stop. Then it continues to just pull back down to an a wave and then takes off again for another extended run of wave 2 . It has done that over and over again for the last two weeks and I have missed the greatest portion of that wave 2 run up. Very frustrating ,as I learned not to chase a wave once it made target.
I still have a passion for it , but like you I need to see some better results soon or else I think it is time to throw in the towel and play golf for a change of pace.

Wishing you all the Best,
David
DRS1850

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  #76 (permalink)
Lansdale, PA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Tradingview, NT 8.0, TOS
Trading: Crude CL, Gold GC
 
Posts: 25 since Aug 2019
Thanks: 23 given, 42 received


tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app



I think the everyone on this Thread did a good job of providing you with a ton of information. I've taken the time to read through it and I'm sure you are overwhelmed by the responses that have been provided.

Instead, I wanted to let you know about my journey into the futures world.

I started a small account of approx $4,000.00 and have been humbled by how hard it is. Let's just say that the Futures market made me a better trader, but I don't trade Futures any more.

I went back to Equities and Options and and this appears to be my true edge.


Scalping with out advanced knowledge of order flow, imbalances and key areas of where business is conducted is suicide.

I also understand that even if someone provided you with a step by step edge, are you mentally conditioned as a successful trader?

The mental re-wiring required takes time and this comes from market understanding.


You know you don't have an edge, but even an edge can become obsolete as systematic trading creates a ton of noise in today's markets. What do you do when that erodes and you have to think quickly on how you can start making a buck again.


You'll find that this journey started out by finding an edge, exploiting it and producing profits from the comfort of your home. It will most likely become an awakening and you will learn more about yourself in this process.


My advice to you is to start with a pen and paper and write down what you want to achieve and how you will do it.

1.) Mean Reverting / Trend Following/ Scalping Type Trading.
2.) Trading Vehicle - RUT, CL, ES, MES,NQ,
3.) Trading Methods - Futures Contracts, Futures Options,
4.) Risk Policy - 1 : 1 Risk, 1 : 1.25 Risk, 1 : 1.5 Risk,

Depending on the method that you select, educate yourself on these topics and if you don't know where to look, don't be afraid to ask.


Back test and trade your method diligently and with a margin of error. You will obtain a method from the books you read and the long hours of google searching you will need to do, or you already know a successful trader ( Rare ).


I would also trade one contract at a time, as you most likely will lose this account as you continue on.


Also note.. Many people on forums are not successful traders, so be skeptical and do your own research.

This could be a very long road for you or a very short one. You also will learn a ton about yourself on this journey and it might not be pretty. You don't have to throw in the towel, but that isn't such a terrible idea.

Good Luck...

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  #77 (permalink)
Phoenix, AZ/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: Emini ES
 
Posts: 1 since Apr 2020
Thanks: 9 given, 1 received

Hi Tony,

The previous reply suggested SIM Trading until you establish an edge, that is a great recommendation. Additionally, I would recommend watching a four part video series by Mark Douglas, it was mentioned in a previous post I was following and I wish I could remember the name of the member that posted it, so I could thank him. I hope it helps.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgaTlTfQnZI

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  #78 (permalink)
MUMBAI
 
 
Posts: 2 since Jan 2020
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Hi Tony,

I am responding to your each line. I personally think this will help you with multiple questions you might have in your mind.
Read it as our conversation. I am just learning to write play-script ..lol

Tony:- I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong
Yogi:- You are at better stage than many others, because you think you need 'edge' in trading to be successful. Pat on back, buddy. Many people keep trading with many losses and few wins, simply random rewards for trader. Unpredictable Rewards Keep Behavior Going. Same goes with any trader.
Here some action items for you,
1. I suggest you to read how to change getting rewards consistenly instead randomly. Note - Consistenly doesn't mean 100% winning.
2. Find out total number of trades, then total number of winnners (any trade with more than zero loss), then total number of losses (trade with any loss, even 1 cent loss), then find out whats your avg winner (total profit earned in winning trades/ number of winning trades), then find out whats your avg loser (total losses made in losing trades/ number of winning trades).
3. Find out Win:Loss Ratio and also find our Risk:Reward ratio (If you dont know how to find, then you can get more info on internet)

Tony:- I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.
Yogi:- What would be your response if I ask you - "what does that mean to you?". I see it as 28% drawdown.
And I ask - "Is $1000 really enough to trade that one contract, considering you may have 20 losses in row before you start making money.
How much you are losing per losing trade, how much you are making per winning trade.

Here some action items for you,
1. Read more about drawdown.
2. Define what should be your drawdown.


Tony:- I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.
Yogi:- And why did you take those Longs and Shorts? Answer this question without using words like 'I thought', 'I felt', 'someone told me' etc etc.
If you can't answer my question without these words, it simply means you don't know why did you take those trades. And you don't know because, you don't have tested strategy.
But, if you can answer that question without the words I mentioned and if you have strategy, then it simply means you don't know that there could be few/some/many consecutive losses in any strategy. And you don't know tha you should be ready for how many consective losses.

Here some action items for you,
1. If you don't have system, please find 'one' system/strategy for you. I suggest start with just one stratgy which gives enough number of trades as per your style of trading.
2. If you have system to trade, then find out what's edge of that system. And get comfortable with consecutive losses of that system.

Tony:- I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.
Yogi:- Again same question as above -
"And I ask - "Is $1000 really enough to trade that one contract, considering you may have 20 losses in row before you start making money."

Here some action items for you,
Read about Money Management.

Tony:- Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better? It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.
Yogi:- If you know in which area you should get better, then keep trying I suggest. But if you don't know which area, which point, at what you need to get better, you would not get better. You would keep trying for years. And you may lose interest in trading.

Here some action items for you,
1. find out what are those things in trading you should 'Avoid' or 'Ignore'. This will help you not going in wrong way for you.
Please note - There could be 100 roads going in 100s direction from the place where you are standing. But you need to try on the road where you want to go.
I know I know this is very abstract example. So here is something direct for you - Do you wanna make extra dollars along with working fulltime somewhere, or you wanna make full time career in daytrading. Even in Day trading - Do you want trade only for 2 hours or you are okay to spend 6 hours every day.
2. What is your expectation in-terms on Returns? Are you expecting 25% yearly, or 25% monthly, or 25% weekly, or 25% daily?
Just taking some numbers hypothetically to make my point - if you wanna trade for next 10 years, and
If you expect 25% yealy, you can make it almost every year - very much possible.
If you expect 25% monthly, let's say you can make it some months in every some years - possible.
If you expect 25% weekly, I doubt you even can make 25% weeks in those years - unlikely.
If you expect 25% daily, I suggest you stop trading now only. In fact if you expect 25% weekly, please stop trading and think.

All above points may help you in future trading.

Best of luck.

Regards,
Yogi

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  #79 (permalink)
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: ES
 
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yoyotrader1 View Post
There should be different size "Thank you" buttons for the experience based wisdom extract like this. Thank you.

Agreed on the BIGGER button...I learn something every day here......thanks TigerTrader

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  #80 (permalink)
Grand Junction, CO
 
Experience: Beginner
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Broker: NT
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 32 since Mar 2015
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Tony -

Anybody that's tried to play this game has experienced what your going through. What I share is just my journey, fwiw. My immediate suggestion - stop trading. Stop trading and get on Amazon and buy two books, if you don't already have them. 1) Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter; 2) High Probability Trading Strategies by Robert C. Miner. In order to become a trader who anticipates, preys and pounces, rather than one who reacts, runs and gets eaten, you have to grasp and begin to see for yourself how markets move.

All markets, no doubt some clearer than other, move according to an impulsive 5 wave, followed by a corrective 3 wave pattern. Doesn't matter the time-frame. If I were you I'd start with studying the 10 year note on the 5, 15, 60 and 240 minute charts. Then add whatever momentum indicators you understand inside and out and watch how they react at discernible wave structure. Then become familiar with Fibonacci retracement and extensions. I add in harmonic patterns just for fun...and market profile, volume profile, some Wyckoff and the Weiswave. Oh and and a good understanding of Point and Figure doesn't hurt either, c.f. Jeremy Du Plessis book.

At this point, you might think this is like going and getting a degree. Well, in a way it is. To be successful in any endeavor you must be educated - and "learning" how to trade is no different.

Best to you -
no3putts

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  #81 (permalink)
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Dorman Trading
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Well phrased Doc.... overload of information is a killer, unfortunately I am not always sure what good data is versus bad data, hence the overload, but knowing where to come to get some good is critical.


yoyotrader1 View Post
@tigertrader
What you just wrote is appropriate not just this thread, but should be a mandatory part of intro course for all the newbies who suffer through the bitter personal experience, rather than learning from the priceless wisdom accumulated over years (almost half a century in your case). Being a brain specialist in my main/original profession, I could not concur more about the bias in people believing what they want to believe - something I "preach" to many in my "other life" all the time.

I am just ecstatic to finally find a place (this forum), when someone experienced (like you) is not beating their own drum for an hour lecture on youtube, and at the end of it trying to sell you their "magic indicator" packaged with bunch of .pdfs and videos at a deeply discounted rate. Don't get me wrong, I actually found some of these quite useful. But you are spot on one thing - most trader's "bottleneck" in being successful is not knowing whether 21 EMA is better than 20 EMA, but their own psychology of wanting to be right overruling the primary goal they are in the game - being profitable.

I have an inborn allergy to "experts", and often challenge many before I accept them as such, albeit after seeing a few posts from you mentioning just a few pearls - (using ADR for SL rather than Ticks and almost opposite mindset for Trend days vs range days, etc.) -I was sold, those were exactly the same things I came up with myself, but took weeks to months of trial and errors as a beginner.

Probably the single most important advice you gave - and I have already been doing - is seeing inordinate amount of data ourselves, to develop it as a skill, rather than blindly follow any single one or any single thing. It's just for beginners - looking at the price action is like Chinese characters, and unless given the meaning of each character - one can stare at it all their life and won't get far. People like you provide the "cleanest" and most straightforward definition of those characters - that's what I am talking about. Our brain (yet) is the best "deep machine learning" computer we have. One just needs to push through enough data with the right mindset (let the reality shape the logic, not the wishful thinking).

Thank you once again, and very much looking forward to future posts. I hope there are a few more people like yourself on this forum (though even just you are sufficient). I am very new here and just starting to dig on all the existing good stuff (Spoonalysis, etc.).


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SMCJB View Post
Yes

Gald nobody told you that !! LOL

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Reefunit View Post
I think the everyone on this Thread did a good job of providing you with a ton of information. I've taken the time to read through it and I'm sure you are overwhelmed by the responses that have been provided.

Instead, I wanted to let you know about my journey into the futures world.

I started a small account of approx $4,000.00 and have been humbled by how hard it is. Let's just say that the Futures market made me a better trader, but I don't trade Futures any more.

I went back to Equities and Options and and this appears to be my true edge.


Scalping with out advanced knowledge of order flow, imbalances and key areas of where business is conducted is suicide.

I also understand that even if someone provided you with a step by step edge, are you mentally conditioned as a successful trader?

The mental re-wiring required takes time and this comes from market understanding.


You know you don't have an edge, but even an edge can become obsolete as systematic trading creates a ton of noise in today's markets. What do you do when that erodes and you have to think quickly on how you can start making a buck again.


You'll find that this journey started out by finding an edge, exploiting it and producing profits from the comfort of your home. It will most likely become an awakening and you will learn more about yourself in this process.


My advice to you is to start with a pen and paper and write down what you want to achieve and how you will do it.

1.) Mean Reverting / Trend Following/ Scalping Type Trading.
2.) Trading Vehicle - RUT, CL, ES, MES,NQ,
3.) Trading Methods - Futures Contracts, Futures Options,
4.) Risk Policy - 1 : 1 Risk, 1 : 1.25 Risk, 1 : 1.5 Risk,

Depending on the method that you select, educate yourself on these topics and if you don't know where to look, don't be afraid to ask.


Back test and trade your method diligently and with a margin of error. You will obtain a method from the books you read and the long hours of google searching you will need to do, or you already know a successful trader ( Rare ).


I would also trade one contract at a time, as you most likely will lose this account as you continue on.


Also note.. Many people on forums are not successful traders, so be skeptical and do your own research.

This could be a very long road for you or a very short one. You also will learn a ton about yourself on this journey and it might not be pretty. You don't have to throw in the towel, but that isn't such a terrible idea.

Good Luck...

Those are grounded wise words and advice you just gave.!! cheers

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  #84 (permalink)
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There is a lot of very good advice in this threat so far. However I strongly believe that you can find "your" edge only on "your" own. Look and stuy carefully the charts, with only very few indicators. Max 2 but better none! Ask yourself, what patterns are there repeating. How do they look and how could you have spotted them in advance. Donīt think or listen about other peopleīs advice at least for some time (scalping or swing trading, indicators or no indicators etc.) Find that out for yourself. Ask yourself what do you expect from trading? Are your expectations realistic or not? How is your mindset? Are you hesitant or in a rush? Have you fear of missing out or fear of getting in to early? All this is very important. Get realistic with yourself, and then try to find a method that suits your way. Donīt try to change yourself too much. That is not working very well. (Remember Sinatra..."I did it my way"?)

And also very important: Do not expect to ever get a better win rate than 60% on the long run (with a 1:1 R/R ratio i.e. -- other ratios influence the win rate accordingly).

Imagine very clearly that this means out of the next 100 trades at least 40 will be loosers !!! Adjust your position size and your strategy and your expectations accordingly to stay in the game.

Do not expect to learn this in a couple of months. It takes years! If this shies you away, stop trading and look for something else. If not, then go at it with your full attention with ambition and yet with patience.

Good luck!

"A chap who speculates- let this be said-
Is very like a beast on moorland dry,
That by some evil spirit round and round is led,
While fair, green pastures round about him lie."
v. Goethe (Faust)
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  #85 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

that is not to bad i lost 20,000 my first blow out. it will not be your last . it takes a few to learn. its part of the process ..

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  #86 (permalink)
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Like most I tried to make money by reading the chart and I think I am very good at it. I did not start making money until I developed my own trading system and FOLLOWED MY RULES. It is widely accepted that 90% of all retail traders lose 90% of their money in 90 days so the key to success is to not do what the 90% does.

If you follow these 9 steps you will be ok but it will take work. What separates those who make money from those who do not is that 90% of traders won't do the work that separates themselves from the herd.

1. Develop an indicator, filter, etc., anything that gives you what I like to call an "unfair advantage." i.e. crossovers, pivot points, breakouts, flags, touches of the 50dSMA, BB bands, etc.
2. Define trend. i.e. moving average crosses, comparing a moving average against itself X days ago, price change breakouts, comparing price to itself X days ago, etc.
3. Create an entry trigger. i.e. breakout, bounce, touch, cross, etc.
4. Add multiple exits based on how you are trading; (swing, trend following, etc.) i.e. stops, targets, # days, %'s, counting, trailing stop, scale into strength, etc.
5. Proper back testing without over optimization. Plenty of examples on YouTube. I suggest checking out Kevin Davey
6. We never want to run out of cash so our systems have to withstand Monte Carlo testing. again Kevin Davey
7. Go live while closely monitoring to see if your system performs as expected.
8. NEVER be a keyboard cowboy and ALWAYS follow your rules
9. Take a days rest before starting your next system.

No matter how easy the TV commercials tell you trading is you cannot make money without some sort of a formal system. Then trade your system and only your system.

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  #87 (permalink)
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Edge? Do you believe we all have an edge? In your view, do you think we all know something that you don't and that is what makes us rich while you stay poor? If you think that you are sadly mistaken. If I could think of any advantage I have over anyone else, it would be that I have experience and I understand strategies. That is it. Most single trades are 50/50 whether you gain or lose. Flip a coin, same odds. I saw you mention "overtrading". That implies you do not have a plan. You have not developed a trading plan that sets up all of those parameters in advance where you do not overtrade, even by accident. I have a very strict plan. I trade options, futures, and options on futures. For futures, I trade energies and grains. Period. Why? I have family that owns HUGE farms in the midwest. We talk and I get ideas. I just ask them about the weather, the plantings, the seedlings, and whatever else. and I get ideas. I know my max # of contracts, when, if it works out, I will sell, everything. I have strayed from my plan in the past and it has not hurt me that bad. But I learned, as you should, that you have a plan, you test it on paper, and if it works, you test it some more BEFORE you monetize it. Lastly, remember, NO ONE KNOWS ANYTHING, I have no idea what corn, wheat, or natural gas will do tomorrow. No idea at all. I might THINK I do, but in truth, I don't. DO NOT fall into the trap of thinking that some guy who wrote a book, or appears on TV has some secrets that you can buy. There are no secrets.

Be well,
Tim

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  #88 (permalink)
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Bravo Tony...I am reversing it to let you know we all appreciate your courage in coming into this forum with that post, it says a lot about you.
Everyone on this Thread is providing you with a piece of good information. I'm sure you are overwhelmed a bit.
I am just reading it all

As a newbie, it is hard...finding out who you are as a trader, are you a scalper, are you a swing, are you any of the 20 different suggestions given so far, the only way to know is to go on the journey.
If you go into SIM, this gives you a chance to try your hand at different concepts for free. You may think you are a scalper because you don't have extra cash, but that may be totally not what your personality aligns with, once you try a variety of systems you fill find it.

I have tried scalping, in trends as well as counter-trend. I've traded 5 min bars as well as 15 min bars and 30-minute bars.
And that will be another issue, what time frame do you align with, what are you comfortable with, and that takes time to figure out.

This was a great nugget in one of the posts.....and there were many.
"I also understand that even if someone provided you with a step by step edge, are you mentally conditioned as a successful trader?"
That is so so real, it would take another thread to discuss that.

I will use a metaphor...."Market Understanding" is like understanding a combustion engine thoroughly, not just turn the key !!!
and the transmission is also part of the deal.

Market knowledge comes over time, you cannot absorb it all at once and don't try, there are some very famous traders that will share that sometimes "knowing more" is not what you want to chase....Watch Mark Douglas, try any of his books and videos.

What is an Edge? and that is also a subject for great minds here. In my world of trading, it is having a way to consistently produce a result that provides a profit. Linda Raschke says she is right 35% percent of the time and makes a windfall.........so everybody has a different edge, it is about how you trade and your risk......understand your risk level......I can tell you that if you get sick to your stomach on a loss, it is the wrong risk level.

Stop placement is another in-depth subject, it all hinges on your risk tolerance and trading methodology.

Big Mike is a successful trader, my guess is that 40 point stop has taken him years to handle emotionally.
But I will leave that to Big Mikes to share his journey. I've traded the ES with a 60 tick stop and the NQ with a 110 tick stop...two markets that look the same on a chart but act totally differently. Understanding Volatility is critical. ATR for scalping is a good place to start, depending on your time frame, watching market structure is also needed.

Here is another nugget given to you, and there were many, "you will learn more about yourself in this process"
This is very critical..YOU....what is your emotional attitude, what triggers you? fear, greed, FOMO..all of this will come to play internally.

Spend time finding your method that you are comfortable with, educate yourself to different concepts, and there is plenty to test.
And remember your not testing to see if the system is profitable, your testing yourself to see if you can align with it, and handle the emotional swings it will produce.

Very wise words here..."Many people on forums are not successful traders, so be skeptical and do your own research"
As pointed out before, the best trader can give you a signal and there is a high chance you will fail with it.
Why? because you also have to develop a mental game.

Another great nugget given "You also will learn a ton about yourself on this journey and it might not be pretty."

I will share this...if you do NOT have a strong passion and desire to make this journey, you will suffer, it is hard !!
Nobody on this forum who has crossed over to profitability on a consistent basis did NOT have a journey that took years.

I remember my first winning month, it was followed by 4 months of blowing the account up.
I've been working at my mental game now for 1 year straight and it's not easy. I have an edge but my emotional reaction to issues has been my nemesis.
And of course...going from SIM to LIVE trading is another part of the journey... and you can't get through that until you think you have an edge. You are trading live now and it is not working so stop....(that would have saved me 20k.) Forcing your will on the market is a losing game.

You are in the right place to share and ask questions, most of the successful folks here will contribute good advice.

Cheers

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  #89 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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YogaTrading View Post
Gald nobody told you that !! LOL

I was never in this position

Quoting 
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind.


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SMCJB View Post
I was never in this position

Please dont take that as a slight, I laughed hard when I read it, its real
Ahhh...the difference between passion and desire and.... just the want

Cheers....

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  #91 (permalink)
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Try Adam Grimes free trading course at MarketlifeTrading. It is built around the concept of "finding edge". You won't be sorry, IMO.

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  #92 (permalink)
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YogaTrading View Post
Please dont take that as a slight, I laughed hard when I read it, its real
Ahhh...the difference between passion and desire and.... just the want

Cheers....

From another thread, very similar to this


SMCJB View Post
Okay I'll say what nobody else seems to have said.

Even though you'd love this to work have you ever considered that maybe this isn't for you and that you should move on?

I'd love to be an NFL Middle Linebacker but it ain't ever going to happen no matter how much I love it or how matter I try.


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  #93 (permalink)
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Look there are ways you can use just ten ticks if trading the Naz you can up it to 20 here is my Edge using Fibonacci fans different color lines for different setups using ABC patterns and pivots I placed the arrows on the trades so you can see there are ways... NQ today
Capture.PNGNAZTODAY

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SMCJB View Post
From another thread, very similar to this

You are a realist and there is a lot to said for knowing when you cant be an NFL linebacker
I was 6' 3" 260 but was not mean enough to be in the NFL...

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  #95 (permalink)
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Edges in the markets are very small and elusive, you can only tell if they work after years of trading.
I encourage you to listen to Adam Grimes' interviews on "Chat with traders" where he dissects this important subject.

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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app


My two cents worth .... get to know market structure ---- movement on the Emini is mostly between Support and Resistance areas .... when there is a move to a resistance area the price will cross the 10 period ema as it moves to the resistance zone (I use a 5 minute chart) .... the MA will act as a trailing stop. Enter above the MA 'at market and place an MIT two or three ticks below the support line .... same thing when price moves to support .... try to capture one to two points and then wait for the next move ....

Buy double or triple bottoms and sell double or triple tops ... with tight stops ... and re-enter if necessary ... the other two patterns that are useful are 'triangles and flags ... these patterns provide price targets and you can use the same system as above

Thesis for this style of trading ... price always respects support and resistance levels ...

I never use angular trend lines ... only horizontal price levels ... and the 10 period ema.

When the market is trending ... buy or sell on pullbacks ... until the trend is broke'

Never buy at resistance and never sell at support ..... I never trade breakouts on the emini but wait for pullback and then start the above process all over again

Before the trading day make sure you prepare by identifying the support and resistance levels. Know these areas before trading and mentally rehearse possible trading these levels ... never trade on payroll data day ... on the day ... wait ..

Stops ... I use tight stops and then re-enter if I need to .... the 10 period ema and support and resistance areas are important to my trading .... but most importantly preparation is the key

Never try to pick direction on the emini it is far too volatile ... that is a losing game ... stick to rules ... buy above 10 period ema and sell below

That is it .... and good luck ... and never be greedy

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  #97 (permalink)
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You need a trading plan, based on a trading system with clearly defined conditions for setup, entry trigger, position sizing and exit algorithm etc. Then paper trade or backtest this trading plan to see if it statistically makes money. Then do some forward testing in a demo account. Once you see that the trading system is profitable you should be ready to trade in your live account. Your trading plan should be a combination of edges. Plan the trade, and trade the plan. That should get you a long way.

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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Ok.
First: Thank you for sharing your difficulties. Admitting and looking for help is the most healthy way to improve. Congrats!

Now answering your question. If you think you have no edge, then you definitely don't have it. So, STOP TRADING RIGHT NOW! Go to simulation. I don't know If you are flow trader, chartist or spread trader. Neither if trade scalp, trade location or day trade. It's tricky to help without knowing what are you looking for.

Let me say this: Edge is an advantage over the market. A pattern you perceive that gives you a probability of capitalize your margin.
For its own nature, an edge is at same time objective and subjective. Objective because must be measurable (or falsifiable in science method). Subjective because it depends of the human mind and then influenceable by human emotions.

Your edge must be learned. And demands time and effort. It's not possible for one person to put 1k into the broker and starts to taking profits. It is not that easy. Personally, I have two years of watching price ladder (I am a price ladder scalper) in one specific market and now I can say I am finding my edge. And it was very hard and frustrating to developing it.

But also, I must say, the edge is only 30% of your trading process. 70% is about to risk management. When you enter in a trade you must know where it you probable gain and your probable loss. And you have to manage it. You must know you likehood of hit your gain before hit you loss. Also, you must have distinct Value At Risk. For each trade, daily, weekly and monthy. And you must stick on it.
You said you lose 28% of your capital (1k), and lost 5% in one trade. You should be more conservative on your loss. Some say you should never risk more then 2% of capital each trade. I suggest 0,2%. So, to you lose 50 USD, you should have 10k into broker. And never lose more then 2,5% a Day. This is a more reasonable approach.

Everytime I enter in a trade, I ask these questions to myself: "Why I am entering this trade?"; "Where is my most probable positive gain?";"Where is my tinyest stop loss if I am wrong?";"Are the odds in my favour?"; "What must be happen to I remain in this trade?".

Sorry for beeing too long. This is an extensive topic. Hope it helps

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  #99 (permalink)
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It looks like you need to learn order flow, to improve your entries. It's not easy, but this is the only way. Don't rely blindly on indicators and levels. You need to see what's happening at the level before entry. Check out Axia Futures YouTube channel or even better, enrol for the Career Course online, or better still do the In-House course if you can afford

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  #100 (permalink)
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I find it ironic, but not surprising that this thread is currently the most active thread on the forum. In the almost 10 years that I've been a member, (and @Big Mike will attest to this fact) we've gone through many, many, iterations of discussions on this very topic. It's almost a cyclical phenomenon. Another generation of aspiring traders embarking on what they think is going to be a walk-in-the-park, until they discover that achieving success in trading isn't quite as easy as they had envisioned.

Most of them are under-capitalized, and the majority of them don't know the difference between a stock and a bond. A lot of them believe the market owes them a living, and will blame the market for their lack of success, when in fact they lack the self-determination to succeed. There is nothing novel about this phenomenon. And, there is certainly nothing surprising about the response it is generating.

Other aspiring traders are eager to offer their advice. What's ironic is most of these traders are experiencing the same problems, and are incompetent at trading themselves. Incompetent traders are at a double disadvantage, since they are not only incompetent, but they are unawre of it. Almost 1/2 of them couldn't even pony up the $ to become elite members, most are on SIM and have no skin in the game, and I truly wonder how many of the others are consistently profitable to the point, where they can actually support themselves and a family, from their trading. Yet they are crawling all over themselves to tell-like-it-is; to explain how they have reinvented the wheel, and found the answer to the eternal question.

Their advice is a panoply of retail aphorisms and urban trading myths that have been propagated over the years, and regurgitated to the newbie masses. And, it's the same worthless garbage every time. You have to find your edge! Trade your plan! Find what suits you and makes you comfortable. Find a nice indicator you can settle down with and crank out 4 tics at a time. I haven't heard one expert that was offering advice say, "learn how the markets work" before you attempt to trade it.

What's ironic, Is that you'll never see these "experts" participating in threads about the markets and trading, because they really have little knowledge of how markets function, and little idea of what it really takes to make consistent and scalable profits. But they are very inclined to tell a newbie how to trade, and dispense advice with no uncertainty, blissfully ignorant of their own ineptitude. This only serves to perpetuate the cycle of retail mis-information, and re-cycle uninformed, unprepared traders that provide the winners their fresh and unknowing counterparts.

Most people are unlikely to think highly of anyone whose views they oppose. So when the newbie thinks about which person to listen to, whose advice to respect, and where to get his information, itís likely that he will choose the one that parallels his views, even though it may not be in his best interest. There have been countless times that @Big Mike and I have tried to steer people in the right direction, but people hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. And what's sad, not ironic, is that these words will probably fall on deaf ears, or not really be comprehended nor believed, and most assuredly, they will be ignored by most.

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futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout > I have no "edge" - Should I throw in the towel?


Last Updated on July 19, 2020


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