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Trading: nq, es, Hype cool runner Ipo's months out short into lockup expirations. UVXY, TSLA options
Posts: 24 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 60
It helps to take the long view on learning about markets. Most folks start trading waaaay to soon without much knowledge and especially not enough execution practice. Think like 10,000 hours of learning and practice. How many swings did Tiger Woods take before he turned pro? How much did he learn about the game? When you enter the market..believe it or not you are paying to play with pro's. Not everyone in the markets, just the ones taking all the $. At Tigers peak he would get up run 4 miles, lift for 3 hours in the gym, spend hours working on his long, middle and short game then run another 4 miles. So lets just say it takes time and commitment and some obsession. Frankly since you seem attracted to es or sim..Ide learn all I could..find and edge then sim/demo say Ninjatrader futures w free live data for a few weeks..then more. See if you can have some success w that first. I wont get into sim trading here cuz its so misunderstood and not used properly and it triggers debate but it has value if you use it effectively, getting to the point where your execution, your swing is..perfect and automatic. Even if you have an edge, (and you need many) you have to understand on a deep level that the wins/losses are distributed randomly within the parameters of the edge. You could get the losers all up front! An algo does not have a problem with that but humans do. Be the algo , be the price, do what it does...and not the commentary in your head (ego that just wants to be right and thus is responsible for thousands of cognitive biases). Learn all you can, find your edges that work for you. Then remember if x occurs do x1, if y occurs do y1. Imagine different scenarios and take the one that confirms. (Bruce Kovner). Your story is everyone's story at first. You are not a failure by any means. I'm not sure where folks get the idea there is anything easy about trading. Fascinating, challenging..for sure, but not easy. I'de say more like very, very difficult and elusive. We can learn say from a Grand Chess Master. They have 20,000 games in memory, can easily see a full game ahead (and there are grand masters in the markets..a GM in chess is lucky to make a mil a year..there is really no limit in the markets). What they realized (and this is true for the markets) is that they see the board and the players differently over time. The same is true for traders and the markets. Anyone's "advice, and or opinions" here including mine is a snapshot of where they are at right now. There's and yours will change over time. So if you are fascinated by the markets..maybe obsessed a bit..take your time..watch it, learn it..things will come to you ..then more things. Can always quit, or not. Don't beat yourself up either way. Good luck, either way. Trading's not for everyone. Wouldn't expect to just learn something, some edge and go make a success of trading. One can learn everything and still not be able to trade successfully. Seeing the market and executing in it are two different skill sets. A fave quote.."some stuff works some of the time". Mahalo
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
,
IF YOU REALLY DON'T HAVE A CLUE, DON'T TRADE WITH REAL MONEY!!! JUST PAPER TRADE UNTIL U FIGURE IT OUT. Trading is a business, you need to treat it like one, meaning you don't trade for "fun". You trade for one reason only, and that is to make money. if you are not making money then stop trading a live account. Also, this is an extremely difficult time to start trading, the market is extremely choppy, with much less follow-thru then usual. only traders with excellent execution will be profitable at this time. So my advise is to paper trade till such time that u are consistently profitable (on paper), then switch to a live account.
I wouldn't call losing $750 in a few weeks trading micros a slow bleed. I would call that hemorrhaging. I do agree with the rest of your post. Sim account until you can consistently show gains. Everybody thinks it's an easy way to get some quick money or even strike it rich. It's quite the opposite. Then there's the psychological effects. The loss that slams your ego or the endorphin rush from a nice gain. Yeah, easy it isn't. I always think of the line by Ed Sekota from Market Wizards "I guess everybody gets what they want from the market".
It should be clear the original poster of this thread doesn't want help any extra help. After reading thru the >80% BS posts on here i noted, he likes to like posts, but offers absolutely nothing for anyone to help.
And as far as good advice, the first 2 pages of the thread has more than enough info for this trader to keep him busy for the conceivable future
You need... a strategy for entering and exiting with consistency to acquire confidence.
...a defined target within a range.
...stop following price!
...learn the market internals and what they mean at what levels and have them in front of you in real time. You cannot trade successfully without that understanding and information. That will help you determine what direction you should be trading, or if you should be trading. That alone has value.
...no diagonal lines, channels, bands, mcclellen, etc on your charts. Learn the wrong way and you will pay.
...stop following price!
...no moving averages. Levels are horizontal. It's just noise that doesn't help with what's happening now! If they worked, Big Mike wouldn't have needed to create this forum/website.
...realistic goals/targets. #1 reason why people fail at trading: nebulous goals.
...stop following price!
...NEVER chase price! See above. Better to be too early than too late with 1/3 position, then manage the trade.
...define what is "risk" and what is "opportunity".
...trade in a news vacuum. NO news, NO TWITTER!(other than entertainment) It's noise and too late anyway. Somebody always knows.
There is no substitute for trading with live vs paper account. However, at the point you are at, to build your skill set and confidence, it is the next best way to determine if/when you should "withdraw and go home", or not.
More tips:
The 1st 15 min and last 15 minutes of RTH's there is no NBBO...so until you have the aforementioned under your belt, you should observe those time periods, but don't trade them unless you are in profit and/or want to gamble.
Like the baseball player that only wants to hit sliders....he'll ignore every pitch unless it's a slider.
He doesn't wrack his brain trying to figure out in advance WHEN the pitcher throws one..he's focused on identifying it WHEN he sees it, i.e., strategy/setup.
Learn what is comfortable for you. Just watching the first 15 minutes knowing you are not going to enter and watching the reaction after the NBBO is taken off will be so much more relaxing...and then if/when you have a setup with your new skill set, trade it.
If you follow your plan, there will never be "bad trades", only good trades. Not all trade will be successful, but that's by no means a bad trade. How you manage the trade is crucial.
I will share with you what it took me ten years of wandering in the woods of futures to learn:
FORGET ABOUT INDICATORS
There, I said it, and probably 95% of the readers on this website are thinking to themselves: Are you kidding? This guy must be nuts.
But from my perspective, what indicators have the potential to tell you is: WHERE HAS PRICE GONE --- NOT where is price going? --- which is what you really want to know --- the future, not the past.
And at least in my experience, the only thing that I've found that has the potential to tell me where price is going is price itself, not some mathematical formulation of where it has been.
And the only way that I've been able to do that is to look at price charts and keep looking at them to look for recurring price patterns. They're there. You just have to be patient and look at lots of price charts and days and days (and months and months) of price charts to find them. And at least in my experience, they will give you the edge that you need to make money in the markets. Maybe not the only way, but at least one way --- and one way is all you need, a repeatable, demonstrable edge. And then, if you can get your emotions out of the way and consistently execute what you have found, you might be able to make a buck as a futures trader.
I couldn't agree more with the indicator part (Although I've had some success with them), but the part about "not some mathematical formulation" couldn't be further from fact. I am glad you are able to build and edge without math, and if it works keep doing it.
But....By using math you can certainly predict with a certain degree of accuracy how the market may react. And it is a pretty nice degree of accuracy. Please refer to Jim Simmons and Renaissance Technologies.
Math is what kicked my trading into hyper drive. JMHO.
Hi,
You got a lot of ideas from others to go forward.
I suggest you to choose ES as your trading instrument.It is less volatile in this high volatility fast moving market.Others like NQ or Russel 2000 is too volatile to trade these days.
You can also use MES but only for practicing for few days,because after commissions and exchange fees there is no profit for retail trader.
Study 2 or three day trade/scalp methods and practice first in a demo platform and afterwords real trade with 1 contract.
In non trendy days try the technique of closing of gaps..This usually occurs in the first hour of RTH.
Use VWAP trading method.
If you have time, study order flow trades: 2 methods that suits you.
Use small profit / stop loss 50-100$ per trade. (ACCORDING TO RHYTHM OF MARKET) . If random movement is higher than your affordable stop stay clear of market.
Be positive.
