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There are many mentors out there and most are crap... My turning point was when I took SMB Futures trading course. SMB Futures is a subsidiary of SMB Capital, which is one of the most consistently profitable trading firms on the street. SMB Futures is headed up by Merritt Black and their futures course will help you create a trading plan and the discipline to follow it. As part of their course, SMB has a realtime chat room where Merritt posts his trades, winners and losers. They are the real deal and have a great trading course.. check them out, it may well be what you need.
Tony,
I feel your pain, and I have a supposed edge. I have spent the last 4 years perfecting my chart reading ( price action only) wave theory based on fibonacci percentages for targets and support and resistance zones. I try to trade the 1 , 2, and 3 impulse waves only and avoid the lightning-bolt- like A B C corrective waves. I have also purchased Voodoo lines which give you constant historic support and resistance lines based on Elliot wave theory, which attract the price like a magnet. So I have two great edges and I am still not able to generate any real profits. I am trading the /MNQ ( 4 in one account and 2 in another)
I have managed to stop the losses caused by over trading and from also trying to trade the corrective a,b,c waves. Sometimes trading the B to C wave is a good bet. But like recently, I traded a nice wave 2 impulse wave up and it reached the fibonacci targets so I exited with a trailing stop. Then it continues to just pull back down to an a wave and then takes off again for another extended run of wave 2 . It has done that over and over again for the last two weeks and I have missed the greatest portion of that wave 2 run up. Very frustrating ,as I learned not to chase a wave once it made target.
I still have a passion for it , but like you I need to see some better results soon or else I think it is time to throw in the towel and play golf for a change of pace.
I think the everyone on this Thread did a good job of providing you with a ton of information. I've taken the time to read through it and I'm sure you are overwhelmed by the responses that have been provided.
Instead, I wanted to let you know about my journey into the futures world.
I started a small account of approx $4,000.00 and have been humbled by how hard it is. Let's just say that the Futures market made me a better trader, but I don't trade Futures any more.
I went back to Equities and Options and and this appears to be my true edge.
Scalping with out advanced knowledge of order flow, imbalances and key areas of where business is conducted is suicide.
I also understand that even if someone provided you with a step by step edge, are you mentally conditioned as a successful trader?
The mental re-wiring required takes time and this comes from market understanding.
You know you don't have an edge, but even an edge can become obsolete as systematic trading creates a ton of noise in today's markets. What do you do when that erodes and you have to think quickly on how you can start making a buck again.
You'll find that this journey started out by finding an edge, exploiting it and producing profits from the comfort of your home. It will most likely become an awakening and you will learn more about yourself in this process.
My advice to you is to start with a pen and paper and write down what you want to achieve and how you will do it.
Depending on the method that you select, educate yourself on these topics and if you don't know where to look, don't be afraid to ask.
Back test and trade your method diligently and with a margin of error. You will obtain a method from the books you read and the long hours of google searching you will need to do, or you already know a successful trader ( Rare ).
I would also trade one contract at a time, as you most likely will lose this account as you continue on.
Also note.. Many people on forums are not successful traders, so be skeptical and do your own research.
This could be a very long road for you or a very short one. You also will learn a ton about yourself on this journey and it might not be pretty. You don't have to throw in the towel, but that isn't such a terrible idea.
The previous reply suggested SIM Trading until you establish an edge, that is a great recommendation. Additionally, I would recommend watching a four part video series by Mark Douglas, it was mentioned in a previous post I was following and I wish I could remember the name of the member that posted it, so I could thank him. I hope it helps.
I am responding to your each line. I personally think this will help you with multiple questions you might have in your mind.
Read it as our conversation. I am just learning to write play-script ..lol
Tony:- I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong Yogi:- You are at better stage than many others, because you think you need 'edge' in trading to be successful. Pat on back, buddy. Many people keep trading with many losses and few wins, simply random rewards for trader. Unpredictable Rewards Keep Behavior Going. Same goes with any trader. Here some action items for you,
1. I suggest you to read how to change getting rewards consistenly instead randomly. Note - Consistenly doesn't mean 100% winning.
2. Find out total number of trades, then total number of winnners (any trade with more than zero loss), then total number of losses (trade with any loss, even 1 cent loss), then find out whats your avg winner (total profit earned in winning trades/ number of winning trades), then find out whats your avg loser (total losses made in losing trades/ number of winning trades).
3. Find out Win:Loss Ratio and also find our Risk:Reward ratio (If you dont know how to find, then you can get more info on internet)
Tony:- I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280. Yogi:- What would be your response if I ask you - "what does that mean to you?". I see it as 28% drawdown.
And I ask - "Is $1000 really enough to trade that one contract, considering you may have 20 losses in row before you start making money.
How much you are losing per losing trade, how much you are making per winning trade.
Here some action items for you,
1. Read more about drawdown.
2. Define what should be your drawdown.
Tony:- I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly. Yogi:- And why did you take those Longs and Shorts? Answer this question without using words like 'I thought', 'I felt', 'someone told me' etc etc.
If you can't answer my question without these words, it simply means you don't know why did you take those trades. And you don't know because, you don't have tested strategy.
But, if you can answer that question without the words I mentioned and if you have strategy, then it simply means you don't know that there could be few/some/many consecutive losses in any strategy. And you don't know tha you should be ready for how many consective losses.
Here some action items for you,
1. If you don't have system, please find 'one' system/strategy for you. I suggest start with just one stratgy which gives enough number of trades as per your style of trading.
2. If you have system to trade, then find out what's edge of that system. And get comfortable with consecutive losses of that system.
Tony:- I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time. Yogi:- Again same question as above -
"And I ask - "Is $1000 really enough to trade that one contract, considering you may have 20 losses in row before you start making money."
Tony:- Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better? It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong. Yogi:- If you know in which area you should get better, then keep trying I suggest. But if you don't know which area, which point, at what you need to get better, you would not get better. You would keep trying for years. And you may lose interest in trading.
Here some action items for you,
1. find out what are those things in trading you should 'Avoid' or 'Ignore'. This will help you not going in wrong way for you.
Please note - There could be 100 roads going in 100s direction from the place where you are standing. But you need to try on the road where you want to go.
I know I know this is very abstract example. So here is something direct for you - Do you wanna make extra dollars along with working fulltime somewhere, or you wanna make full time career in daytrading. Even in Day trading - Do you want trade only for 2 hours or you are okay to spend 6 hours every day.
2. What is your expectation in-terms on Returns? Are you expecting 25% yearly, or 25% monthly, or 25% weekly, or 25% daily?
Just taking some numbers hypothetically to make my point - if you wanna trade for next 10 years, and
If you expect 25% yealy, you can make it almost every year - very much possible.
If you expect 25% monthly, let's say you can make it some months in every some years - possible.
If you expect 25% weekly, I doubt you even can make 25% weeks in those years - unlikely.
If you expect 25% daily, I suggest you stop trading now only. In fact if you expect 25% weekly, please stop trading and think.
Anybody that's tried to play this game has experienced what your going through. What I share is just my journey, fwiw. My immediate suggestion - stop trading. Stop trading and get on Amazon and buy two books, if you don't already have them. 1) Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter; 2) High Probability Trading Strategies by Robert C. Miner. In order to become a trader who anticipates, preys and pounces, rather than one who reacts, runs and gets eaten, you have to grasp and begin to see for yourself how markets move.
All markets, no doubt some clearer than other, move according to an impulsive 5 wave, followed by a corrective 3 wave pattern. Doesn't matter the time-frame. If I were you I'd start with studying the 10 year note on the 5, 15, 60 and 240 minute charts. Then add whatever momentum indicators you understand inside and out and watch how they react at discernible wave structure. Then become familiar with Fibonacci retracement and extensions. I add in harmonic patterns just for fun...and market profile, volume profile, some Wyckoff and the Weiswave. Oh and and a good understanding of Point and Figure doesn't hurt either, c.f. Jeremy Du Plessis book.
At this point, you might think this is like going and getting a degree. Well, in a way it is. To be successful in any endeavor you must be educated - and "learning" how to trade is no different.
