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I have no "edge" - Should I throw in the towel?


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I have no "edge" - Should I throw in the towel?

  #51 (permalink)
 jgilmo 
Largo Florida USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 26 since Apr 2016
Thanks Given: 2
Thanks Received: 6


tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Try trading before the cat herd starts up from 5AM till 8AM, the algos seem to not retrace as much at those times..

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  #52 (permalink)
digital911
Calgary AB/Canada
 
Posts: 3 since Oct 2018
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Imho there is no real edge other than buy and hold and average down. You can try to take profits and try to re enter lower but that's tough to do consistently. Of course people selling every trading idea will say averaging down, aka DCA is foolish.good luck

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  #53 (permalink)
 Bob M 
Newport Beach
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Futures
Posts: 6 since Jun 2016
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 1


You need to get serious! If this was easy everybody would live on large yachts, in penthouses or palatial estates. That's the candy we all digest at one time or another, but taking a course(s) or reading a book(s) alone won't entitle you to make millions all of a sudden - seriously. There's no edge in that approach as you aptly point out. Nobody is going to give you an edge, but many will offer to sell you an edge that fits you perfectly. You need to discover what fits YOUR desires, abilities, and style and develop your edge. Think in terms of half decades or decades to get good enough to be CONSISTENTLY profitable all the while you are honing and refining and adapting and modifying your edge. You might be frustrated with the school and your teacher. You've already been taught the value and importance of consistency, but haven't yet embraced it. Can you scalp just one tick consistently? How would you do that? What edge might you have or develop to do that?
IMHO, keep your day job and trade SIM exclusively until you have developed a process that works consistently in SIM. Then trade that process in SIM without limit orders, only market orders. If you can do that you will have an edge. Understand what that is.
Join trading groups, leave them, and join others. Take courses and then purge yourself of all you've just paid money to learn. Ask, was he a guru or a good salesman, or a little of both? How does that make you feel? Open up to your emotions and learn from them. Read books and then seriously wonder if the author is or was ever trading let alone (consistently) profitable. Was the author developing elaborate screens and then investing with a stop and pronouncing himself a trader, or was he actually trading: There’s a big difference. If this sounds like too much work or a ridiculous way of approaching your education, you're right. And that's where the alluring siren that goes by the name Trading lives. In time, you will begin to find a path, or not. In time you will either decide it is a [blood] sport you want to compete in or not. After all, as you now know, it's easy to make money trading. The only difficult part is keeping that money in your account.

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  #54 (permalink)
HMUZ
Raleigh NC/USA
 
Posts: 4 since Apr 2019
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 1

Bear in mind, you should be monitoring all the equties to trade just one.. to d the best setup.
Time of day your "entry" was created. And higher time frames have more risk and more probability. Find lower time frames inside the bigger ones.

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  #55 (permalink)
 
spinnybobo's Avatar
 spinnybobo 
Crete, IL/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Mt4
Broker: Tradestation/Tradestation, NinjaTrader, FXCM and Tallinex
Trading: ES, CL, EUR/USD, TF
Posts: 173 since Aug 2009
Thanks Given: 105
Thanks Received: 61

I would paper trade for a while and focus on two things for right now:
1. trade management strategy calibrated to your market
2. your entry point

the first one also assumes you have the money management portion figured out. i.e. how much money do you have and how many contracts are you willing to trade at one time
For example: I am doing Top Step Trader right now and I find that in order to meet their requirements for $150k combine, I cannot trade more than 3 contracts at a time in the ES market

I also set my stops anywhere from 16 ticks minimum to as much as 12 handles max
It depends on what kind of trade I am doing.

But if I am going long/short trend and it is happening now and it is about to continue after a pullback or basing, the 16 ticks is where I want to be
but If I am wrong and wanting to exit, then sometimes widening the stop works or if I am looking for a bigger move ---- like if the market is showing signs of the beginning of a sell off.

Anyway, I still have a lot to work through, but I am getting close to completing the combine and getting funded.

You need to also look into why YOU lose.
For me, I get impulsive and jump into trades at the wrong point. I have somewhat reckless behavior. That is seen and I am putting in more and more rules to counter that so it works in my favor rather than against me.

It used to be a problem of not using stop losses and in some accounts it is still the case, but this is getting fixed because you have to use stop losses for Top Step
Not that they require it but it is mostly because I realized otherwise the daily loss will always be hit.

Second, you need to tighten the stop to break even after it almost hits your target 1
For me, my target 1 is like 8 ticks so my stop to break even is when it moves 5 ticks in my favor

7 times out of 10 it will then hit target 1. But more importantly is at that point I CANNOT LOSE on that trade.

Trading isn't about how much you make it is about how much you don't lose.

So work on your entry strategy and based on that how much adverse excursion and favorable excursion (max profit and max loss) should you experience
Formulate your trade management from there.

at some point, tighten to break even after only a small movement

this along with your entry point is the absolute key.

again, it is assuming you are trading small enough not to overtrade. that is given.

good luck!

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  #56 (permalink)
 TraderRaider22 
Orlando Florida United States
 
Posts: 1 since May 2018

This is all just my opinion. To me, a small $1000 account necessitates a stop loss. The only way I can see to keep the risk (stop loss) down is to find a methodology that utilizes a smaller stop loss. That is difficult to find in these days of high volatility. So, here's what I suggest: Look for a low stop loss methodology. Sim trade the ES every day while you are doing so, and try to find a charting software that uses market replay so you can review how your methodology worked, before, during, and after the open. Keep learning, And do your level best to start with at least $5000.

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  #57 (permalink)
hclara
Bangor Maine
 
Posts: 32 since Nov 2018
Thanks Given: 20
Thanks Received: 27


tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Only you and your pocket book can answer that question . I would say if you really have a passion to trade take some of the good advice given here already and sim trade . If you can't make a profit trading sim trading you will never make it live . There needs to be a passion and countless hrs. looking at charts . The ES is not an easy mkt. to trade for a beginner . You are up against the very best traders including institutions . During these crazy times I have been trading the Euro dollar (6E } . I look for one 1 or 2 trades per day during the morning US session and call it quits . Don't over trade , make a print out of every trade you take , good or bad and review them . What has helped me a great deal is I am no longer greedy and will take what the mkt. is willing to give me and patient enough to wait for a trade that fits my plan to come to me . If I don't get one I don't trade that day . It is easy for me to say that as I am retired living off a good pension . If you need to trade to make ends meet that is not a good place for a new trader , any good profession wasn't learned overnight and it can take years to become a good trader .

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  #58 (permalink)
 Smackalackattack 
Newnan Ga/US
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Emini ES/CL/GC
Posts: 7 since Feb 2020
Thanks Given: 4
Thanks Received: 9

Well, the first (and I’d say, most important) thing that sticks out is that you have no trading plan. “I’m trading blind” is a huge red flag! What is qualifying the long trade? The short trade? What is your criteria for getting out of a trade once you’re in? Profit target/risk level? You are only trading one micro contract on a $720 account. A $50 loss on the day seems really high. Having a well developed trading plan should and will answer all of these questions, and more! A lot of us here, I would assume, have traded real money long before we were prepared too. I politely suggest that you are doing that as well. To your credit, you are asking the questions you are before your small account is blown up. So congratulations! Bottom line, do your due diligence and create your trading plan and that should give you all the answers for when, how and why to get into and out of a trade. As far as whether you should just walk away, the fact that you care enough to post here tells me that you want to trade, so don’t give up, just change your process! I hope this helps and good luck!

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  #59 (permalink)
 Emmanuel Erskine 
Scarborough
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Trading: Emini ES
Posts: 27 since Apr 2020


tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the NexusFi mobile app



I know what I’m about to say is going to hurt a little but we’ve all had to do it when we first start trading. First of all, trading with only a grand is going to put a lot of pressure on you to get it right. It is going to create fear in you because of the fear of losing it. So, what you need to do is hold on to your cash and make your mistakes in simulation trading. Take 1000 dollars and at least try to double it. I tried it. You can do it but you will find it extremely difficult because of ones natural tendencies to want more than what the market is giving us. Therefore you will want to try to trade with a sim account starting with 5000 and trade Eminis and not micros. Try to double it before you trade real money. The problem with micros is it breeds greed. You need or want more money so you will not be satisfied with what it gives you. It forces you to over trade and stretch too much. Eventually you lose by giving it all back.

Your issue right now is multi dimensional. You need money to make money. You have fear built up in your mind which you need to overcome. You can only do that by understanding how the market or instrument you trade moves. You can only get this understanding by spending time watching and simulating the price action. You need to learn to accept or overcome the fear of losing to gain confidence. While you trade simulation save your money till you get about 5000. This way, you will not be panicking every time the market moves a little bit against you. You can handle a little pain.

Now this pain can be avoided if you know what your instruments support is going to be. You can find this by using the Fibonacci tool which unfortunately I can not explain to you here. You can also look to see what the previous days low was to give you an idea how much the instrument can and possibly will pull back to from its highs, at which point you will buy with confidence in anticipation of an upward movement.

With one ES contract you will make 500 bucks on a 10 point move which should not be a problem if you are buying at support.

Your challenge is going to be learning how to be patient and wait for it. The other will be learning to not take a short while you are learning to find your instruments support. Your third will be learning to be content with not more than one or two trades a day. More than three trades will put you brain in gambling mode. This is when you will give your gains back to the market.

So as you can see, the journey is not just about making money but mastering your emotions, understanding your instrument and how it behaves, and money management.

At the end of your trading day, write down what you did right and what you did wrong. Close your computer and wait for another trading day with a fresh mind.

Start your day with finding your trading range and the general sentiment of the market. Are we up, or are we down. Are we heading up or down. How did Asia close, how is Europe doing, How will it affect North American markets. Where is my bias? Where is support? Where can I expect the market to come down to before I take a long position. Allow the market to convince you that it is going long before you get it.

The market is full of bait. But at some point it would have scared all those without a plan to get out and take all those with a plan for the ride. Wait for all the suckers to get off the bus, then take your place in first class.

Remember, you must overcome fear, you must build your account, you must know your instrument and how it behaves, you must know where ultimate support is and where resistance is going to be once it starts moving up. You must overcome greed. Take small wins. Do not trade for more than 2 hours. If you can’t read the markets direction then stay out. If it is not ready for you , you will be thrown out with the rest after it has chopped you up.

This is how I have been taught to trade, and in the last two weeks I have never lost a trade. If you buy right you will grow your account. You have to buy right. Take the time to learn the instrument then You will be ready to trade. Right now you are not. Trust me, I’ve been there. You have real work to do. The easy part is making the money. The hard part is your emotions, greed and things you are not even aware of. But you will do it if you take the time and sacrifice the time now. All the money you have lost will be made back in a week, easily.

You can do it, don’t give up, express your frustrations on paper. Journal and you will have a friend talking back to you soon. Be patient and put in the time to simulate and observe the behaviour of your instrument. Focus on one instrument at a time. Don’t trade multiple instruments.

Get it right and it will treat you right.

Have your plan and trade your plan. Everything else is noise.

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  #60 (permalink)
 
DanielTrader's Avatar
 DanielTrader 
Brazil
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tryd
Trading: Options, Stocks, in this order
Posts: 42 since Oct 2016
Thanks Given: 91
Thanks Received: 47


I didn't read other comments, but how long are you trading? how much did you studied? don't start doing day trading, try to start with something else. practice in the simulator. check you investment capital. it's not easy to get rich investing a thousand dollars and to pay your bills with the results.
Anyway try to study and to learn with your losses. If you need any help let me know.




tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the NexusFi mobile app


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