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I have no "edge" - Should I throw in the towel?


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I have no "edge" - Should I throw in the towel?

  #31 (permalink)
sharpshoota
Bodoe , Norway
 
Posts: 143 since Jun 2014
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Have you done any trading on sim or done any backtesting of your strategy?
...if not.. then that would be a very good way to start of before doing any more live trading...

Here is a good video if you have an edge and want to get moving forward :


Good luck!

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  #32 (permalink)
 
bcomas's Avatar
 bcomas 
Palma de Mallorca/Spain
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: Ninjatrader Brokerage
Trading: micro e-mini nasdaq-100 index futures
Posts: 118 since May 2015
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



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Automate your strategy to remove emotions and human mistakes. Test it in different markets : ranging, uptrend, downtrend. Adjust all. Then start in Sim and observe for sometime. Then start again in live.

You should be a professional with a lot of hours of trading and accounts destroyed in your back to win money in this bussines.
Remember that most of the retail traders lose money. You are not an exception. Leave the Robot work for you.

Bernard
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  #33 (permalink)
 
IceZ4's Avatar
 IceZ4 
North Carolina, US
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TOS, NT, MT4
Trading: ES, /6J, CL, GC, etc...
Posts: 3 since Sep 2017
Thanks Given: 3
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge...

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If you have no edge or don't know from where your edge is coming from -you should not be trading. You should be spending your capital researching/working on developing an edge, and then on saving to "fund" a trading account... btw: even if you have an edge (several edges actually) to make trading worthwhile, you need seizable trading account; otherwise, this is a losing preposition.

Yes, yes, we all read that Bruce Kovner borrowed $3,000 on his MasterCard back 1977, and today he is worth 5 billions, but the likelihood of repeating that must be 1 in 7 billions per decade... buying a winning lotto ticket is more probable like 1 in 15 million.

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  #34 (permalink)
Xman007
Richmond VA/USA
 
Posts: 2 since Feb 2015
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Hey Tony.

I suggest that you move (back?) to demo mode until you have established a repeatable edge. Sounds like you are the victim of hopeium the same stuff that many of us have overdosed on.

It is good that you are bleeding slowly (MES instead of ES) but I am not sure if you are following a trading plan that produces positive results. Getting "Lucky"is one of the worst things that can happen for it offers a double portion of hopeium and encourages you to trade out side the lines of the Proven Trading Plan. Do you have one, written or thought out? Write it out so that you can reference it clearly and modify it as market conditions change.

Save you capital until you have a good reason to believe in your plan, (repeated success in demo mode).

I am sure that others will chime in with sage advice but that should be a good start.

Hang in there man, it does get better if you put the time in!

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  #35 (permalink)
rad dev
coplay pa
 
Posts: 2 since Oct 2015
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Sorry for a very straight forward reply! No Edge No trading, otherwise its a gamble.

Spend time looking for a edge that you like. Invest time in that. I have spent lot of time just trying to figure out what is my edge.

Yet working on it.

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  #36 (permalink)
crestrider
Lagos, Nigeria
 
Posts: 3 since Oct 2018
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Hello Tony,

I'm sorry you feel the way you do. A few things though. Your edge will only work when you have a good risk management (RM) model and you stick with it. With a disciplined obedience to your RM you could trade a system that has a lower win rate and still be profitable. Accuracy in market prediction is hardly an edge. You just need to be sure that you consistently make more money when you're right than you lose when you're wrong.

The ultimate question, I guess, is do you think you have the discipline to follow a trading system or not. If yes, hang in there, and look for a mentor. If no, you could try algorithmic trading and not be a discretionary trader. If none of those two work, maybe you should let trading go and pursue another career where decision making won't be your responsibility.

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  #37 (permalink)
 dogman549 
Hilo Hawaii
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader8
Trading: Emini ES, Crude CL, Emini NQ
Posts: 2 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 2
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Hi Tony;

I understand what you are going thru. I was like that also. Now I know that trading futures is not easy especially when you are losing. My advice is to take a look at Emini Stock Index Trading Room | Live Trading Room | Learn to Day Trade | Learn How to Trade S&P Emini Futures Trading Room and Day Trading Education. Now I am not here to promote anything. You still have to spend money. Look at what is being used at this site. I am now using this trading setup and have had terrific results.Now no trading is 100% accurate but learning this will keep you on the right side. Hope this helps.

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  #38 (permalink)
 
Riverend's Avatar
 Riverend 
Westlake, Oh
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL
Posts: 356 since Jun 2009
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

I don't know for sure how long you have been trading but if your trying to learn to trade with real money no mater your account size, don't do it. You MUST first trade a Sim account and have patience. Also I found that trading with one contract is difficult to make money. Good luck.

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  #39 (permalink)
Silicon
Gilbert Arizona
 
Posts: 6 since Mar 2017
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 4

Let me help you out. If you're just trading direction(long/short), you have no edge. Its statically proven. If on the other hand you're trading options, a small edge could be had, maybe(60-40), but good luck managing that tight spread. Market conditions/volatility etc can skew that with ease. You need truck loads of cash to make it feasible.

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  #40 (permalink)
clockwork71
Columbus
 
Posts: 14 since Mar 2017
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Online forums are NOT where you will find the answers. 95 percent of the people on these things are losing money as well.

(I can make it in FX, can't do it in Futures - as a full admission to being no better than anyone else. )

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