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I have no "edge" - Should I throw in the towel?


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I have no "edge" - Should I throw in the towel?

  #41 (permalink)
BlakJak
Singapore
 
Posts: 2 since Jun 2018
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I agree with everyone here who says that you shouldn't be trading if you do not know what your edge is.

As I can see no charts, it is difficult to tell but it seems like your entries are guesses. A 10 tick stop in ES is nothing, so price better be already going in your direction strongly before you enter with such a tight stop. However, to do that you need to be able to read the tape really well and have enough experience to judge that the turn is really in.

Trade SIM, as if it was real money, and work out your strategy. Read up on some good trading books. I recommend Mike Bellafiore's "The Playbook" and "One Good Trade". The goal is to figure out one profitable strategy and get really good at it. Do that in SIM, make money, then move to MES, make money, then move up to ES. After you have one strategy down pat (do not be surprised if this takes you 1 to 2 years and most can't make it even that far because they do not have what it takes to become a trader) then you can start to expand your strategy portfolio.

This is a full time job. It needs hard work recording and reviewing and re-living every trade you make to see what went wrong, what you could have done better, and what went right. Multiply your opportunities to trade by investing in a good charting platform like SierraChart which will allow you to replay the market.

If you are not willing to do all that work then stop now. Save your money and do something else.

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  #42 (permalink)
Dawson
Charleston West Virginia United states of America
 
Posts: 2 since Jan 2015
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



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Man the es is hard to trade. Watch jigsaw order flow training videos, try the nq and scalp it.

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  #43 (permalink)
 Monika 
Frankfurt Germany
 
Posts: 14 since Apr 2020


I can understand that well. I often feel the same way. Many here tell the truth and are honest. As for the numerous "offers" of strategies, indicators, etc. for money. My very personal opinion: Let it be! All of them want your money. No more! Don't let anything else tell you. Find your own style. Work on it every day. and most important of all: keep it simple!
Finally, a book I can recommend: 20 Most Common Trading Mistakes: And How You Can Avoid Them by K. Butcher.
Have a nice day....
Monika

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  #44 (permalink)
 
FuturesTrader71's Avatar
 FuturesTrader71 
 
Posts: 391 since Feb 2012
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Welcome to the 2nd Stage of Competence > Finally knowing that you don't know what you need to know.

This is not a bad place to be for a cost of just $280. There is hope, in my opinion, because you named this thread exactly right. The fact that you are realizing that you have no edge tells me that you are being realistic.

@BigMike responded with the ADR and knowing what your product's volatility is on a daily basis. That is a good metric to get a general idea from on what your risk in the product might be.

In my opinion, you will want to figure out a whole bunch of stuff and put it all together in what is a business plan which will govern your trading plan. Until you have done this, you are simply doing this for entertainment (and there is nothing wrong with that...we don't judge). A few things you need to figure out are:
  1. What is your purpose for trading? Hobby/entertainment or career?
  2. How much time can you afford to devote to this? Money can be lost and won, but time is never recovered. Whatever time you give yourself, double it and you are closer to what it will take
  3. How much money are you willing to invest in your education?
  4. What is your risk tolerance? Can you see through a 30 pt drawdown? Would you prefer to have small gains but also small losses?
  5. What will your trading time frame be? Will you be trading for scalps? 10 min holds? Holding for hours? Days? Investing?
  6. Do you have an understanding of the auction and why the market moves?
  7. Do you want to trade based on technical or fundamental analysis or both?
  8. If technical, what makes sense to you? What is appealing to you? What have you tried?
  9. Once you know what you want to use, are you prepared to be the foremost expert on that tool? That's what it takes
  10. What is your risk plan? How much is reasonable to risk to find out if your bias (long/short), location, duration and stop are in agreement with the market?
  11. What are the milestones/goals that you need to hit? Are they performance based or P&L based?
  12. Are you trading to make big $$? If so, you will get more satisfaction by simply sending that money to a good cause. Your purpose has to be about solving the puzzle for yourself using your own individual process and ideas and then to become obsessed with executing it perfectly. The money comes if there is an edge and your emotions remain in check

That is just an abridged list. There is more to it, but those are a few things that you need to consider.

You are blessed in that the micros exist. It used to cost a lot more to learn.

By the way, have your broker set a hard stop for you on a daily basis. This is going to be important until you fully learn how to manage your response to stress.

Yes, in my opinion, this can be done and is done by others. It is really about your commitment to it.

Best of luck!

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.

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  #45 (permalink)
 StockT8er 
ROY, Utah
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation
Posts: 81 since Apr 2020
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Go back to practice trading until you start making a profit

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  #46 (permalink)
 RDCoach 
Las Vegas, NV
 
Experience: Master
Platform: APEX n Sierra
Broker: Tradestation and AMPFutures
Trading: Emini Futures, Futures
Posts: 12 since Apr 2018
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You can't get a QUICK solution to trading. That's like getting into a formula one race car the 1st time and expecting to win the race, not going to happen. Suggest NOT trading live but SIM, until you know what your doing or your just throwing away money. Read all you can on what Candles mean and Support and Resistance. That will keep you busy for the first 3 years. Trading is NOT a video game it's a REAL job, you have to put in the work, time and learn. Sorry for the realty check.

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  #47 (permalink)
aurelien
Antibes
 
Posts: 3 since Apr 2020
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Hi Tony,
I am not an experienced professional trader. As such I usually don't post on this forum where many great traders have so much clever things to say.
However, in your specific case I think I can give my 2 cents:

I have been trading for more than 10 years, as an amateur: perhaps 1% of my time is trading.
My "way of trading" is choosing the right time, the right time scale, and the right market. The ones I feel comfortable predicting moves.

I paper trade for a few days, build a strategy, and when I feel like this strategy can be profitable, I trade, with big capital. I try to be patient and trade only patterns and indicators that I am comfortable with, and that seem to work right now for the market / context. Keep in mind that current covid context is very specific. Sometimes you will feel like the market is not following any predictable pattern, indicator, trend that you are currently using. That's when you have to stop : if I am not making profit anymore, I "reboot" my mind. I stop trading for a while, read books, relax. You need to be relaxed and self-confident in order to make profit. If you are not self confident you will doubt your strategy, you will keep changing your mind, and you will stop trading and start gambling.

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  #48 (permalink)
 pugpack 
Blue Ridge Mountains, Georgia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, Futures Plu
Broker: Tradestation, Etrade
Trading: ES, NQ, GC, Si, Softs, Grains, Energy
Posts: 10 since Mar 2017
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 4

Having an edge means making your trading more mechanical. Looking for setups that justify a risk for a certain reward. If you were only going to read one trading book then read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas, then I would check out Trading the Measured Move by David Halsey (you can also find him at https://www.eminiaddict.com/, live daily. That will help you go a long way to finding your own edge. Good Luck

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  #49 (permalink)
 mikhersh 
Montrose, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Trading View
Trading: ES, TF
Posts: 1 since Oct 2012
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A possibility is to look into NOBS trading room. Like the acronym, these guys are no bullshit. You start performing simple pullback trades during stacked EMAs. You trade sim and post your trades in the room while they critique. It's tough love but you don't go live until you've met their criteria. I see it as a trading Bootcamp. In addition, you have a set ATM strategy and a goal for each day.

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  #50 (permalink)
tradermpls
St. Paul, Minnesota
 
Posts: 3 since Dec 2018
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I found this NQ trader who has been profitable; but his trading style is not suitable for small accounts. He trades without a stop and will average down (add to loosing trades). If you have been exposed to markets for a while and understand price actions to place your stop, you might want to check his live youtube channel called "The Quant007"

[yt]https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOb1xQVNbfpJLwPhsGRA7Fg[/yt]

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