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I have no "edge" - Should I throw in the towel?


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I have no "edge" - Should I throw in the towel?

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  #101 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
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  #102 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
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tigertrader View Post
I find it ironic, but not surprising that this thread is currently the most active thread on the forum. In the almost 10 years that I've been a member, (and @Big Mike will attest to this fact) we've gone through many, many, iterations of discussions on this very topic. It's almost a cyclical phenomenon. Another generation of aspiring traders embarking on what they think is going to be a walk-in-the-park, until they discover that achieving success in trading isn't quite as easy as they had envisioned.

Most of them are under-capitalized, and the majority of them don't know the difference between a stock and a bond. A lot of them believe the market owes them a living, and will blame the market for their lack of success, when in fact they lack the self-determination to succeed. There is nothing novel about this phenomenon. And, there is certainly nothing surprising about the response it is generating.

Other aspiring traders are eager to offer their advice. What's ironic is most of these traders are experiencing the same problems, and are incompetent at trading themselves. Incompetent traders are at a double disadvantage, since they are not only incompetent, but they are unawre of it. Almost 1/2 of them couldn't even pony up the $ to become elite members, most are on SIM and have no skin in the game, and I truly wonder how many of the others are consistently profitable to the point, where they can actually support themselves and a family, from their trading. Yet they are crawling all over themselves to tell-like-it-is; to explain how they have reinvented the wheel, and found the answer to the eternal question.

Their advice is a panoply of retail aphorisms and urban trading myths that have been propagated over the years, and regurgitated to the newbie masses. And, it's the same worthless garbage every time. You have to find your edge! Trade your plan! Find what suits you and makes you comfortable. Find a nice indicator you can settle down with and crank out 4 tics at a time. I haven't heard one expert that was offering advice say, "learn how the markets work" before you attempt to trade it.

What's ironic, Is that you'll never see these "experts" participating in threads about the markets and trading, because they really have little knowledge of how markets function, and little idea of what it really takes to make consistent and scalable profits. But they are very inclined to tell a newbie how to trade, and dispense advice with no uncertainty, blissfully ignorant of their own ineptitude. This only serves to perpetuate the cycle of retail mis-information, and re-cycle uninformed, unprepared traders that provide the winners their fresh and unknowing counterparts.

Most people are unlikely to think highly of anyone whose views they oppose. So when the newbie thinks about which person to listen to, whose advice to respect, and where to get his information, itís likely that he will choose the one that parallels his views, even though it may not be in his best interest. There have been countless times that @Big Mike and I have tried to steer people in the right direction, but people hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. And what's sad, not ironic, is that these words will probably fall on deaf ears, or not really be comprehended nor believed, and most assuredly, they will be ignored by most.

Well put, and they still have to learn and fail on their own. Like I posted earlier...Advice is cheap. His question is exactly why this forum is so nice and choosing which advice you take will determine were you go. Its always the same question over and over...Where do I start, what do I trade, why doesn't this work, and etc. This is the cycle most have to go through. The poster doesn't know you any better than he knows me or anyone else on this forum. I hope he finds it. Because once you find it, its really all not that hard. Not the way some want to make you think. At least no harder than some other degrees out there. IMHO.

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  #103 (permalink)
Lakeland, FL, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Trading: futures
 
Posts: 13 since Dec 2010
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Many years, still learning. My take, stay away from MES. Too fast with too many large swings. Try something smaller with limited swing lengths like M6E. Look at a Renko chart set to 1,1,1 for average swing lengths. I prefer Unirenko charts to Renko. For swing length I use ProActionSwingPro. Not sure if it's a Ninja indicator or from Big Mike's. Monday's are too slow normally but the rest of the week is tradable. Look at 6E for comparisons and entries. Using this info, practice. Stop live trading for a while.

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  #104 (permalink)
Bangor Maine
 
 
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tigertrader View Post
I find it ironic, but not surprising that this thread is currently the most active thread on the forum. In the almost 10 years that I've been a member, (and @Big Mike will attest to this fact) we've gone through many, many, iterations of discussions on this very topic. It's almost a cyclical phenomenon. Another generation of aspiring traders embarking on what they think is going to be a walk-in-the-park, until they discover that achieving success in trading isn't quite as easy as they had envisioned.

Most of them are under-capitalized, and the majority of them don't know the difference between a stock and a bond. A lot of them believe the market owes them a living, and will blame the market for their lack of success, when in fact they lack the self-determination to succeed. There is nothing novel about this phenomenon. And, there is certainly nothing surprising about the response it is generating.

Other aspiring traders are eager to offer their advice. What's ironic is most of these traders are experiencing the same problems, and are incompetent at trading themselves. Incompetent traders are at a double disadvantage, since they are not only incompetent, but they are unawre of it. Almost 1/2 of them couldn't even pony up the $ to become elite members, most are on SIM and have no skin in the game, and I truly wonder how many of the others are consistently profitable to the point, where they can actually support themselves and a family, from their trading. Yet they are crawling all over themselves to tell-like-it-is; to explain how they have reinvented the wheel, and found the answer to the eternal question.

Their advice is a panoply of retail aphorisms and urban trading myths that have been propagated over the years, and regurgitated to the newbie masses. And, it's the same worthless garbage every time. You have to find your edge! Trade your plan! Find what suits you and makes you comfortable. Find a nice indicator you can settle down with and crank out 4 tics at a time. I haven't heard one expert that was offering advice say, "learn how the markets work" before you attempt to trade it.

What's ironic, Is that you'll never see these "experts" participating in threads about the markets and trading, because they really have little knowledge of how markets function, and little idea of what it really takes to make consistent and scalable profits. But they are very inclined to tell a newbie how to trade, and dispense advice with no uncertainty, blissfully ignorant of their own ineptitude. This only serves to perpetuate the cycle of retail mis-information, and re-cycle uninformed, unprepared traders that provide the winners their fresh and unknowing counterparts.

Most people are unlikely to think highly of anyone whose views they oppose. So when the newbie thinks about which person to listen to, whose advice to respect, and where to get his information, itís likely that he will choose the one that parallels his views, even though it may not be in his best interest. There have been countless times that @Big Mike and I have tried to steer people in the right direction, but people hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. And what's sad, not ironic, is that these words will probably fall on deaf ears, or not really be comprehended nor believed, and most assuredly, they will be ignored by most.

Well said --- After almost 30 years of trading and making so many mistakes you would think one would have all the answers but the truth is we don't have all the answers . I guess that is why trading is so interesting , there is always a new chapter . It's a journey that just keeps going on and on . I am 77 and still turn on my computer every morning to trade , and it doesn't have much to do about the money anymore it's just part of my life .

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  #105 (permalink)
Arnhem, The Netherlands
 
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So what would you suggest?
tigertrader View Post
I find it ironic, but not surprising that this thread is currently the most active thread on the forum. In the almost 10 years that I've been a member, (and @Big Mike will attest to this fact) we've gone through many, many, iterations of discussions on this very topic. It's almost a cyclical phenomenon. Another generation of aspiring traders embarking on what they think is going to be a walk-in-the-park, until they discover that achieving success in trading isn't quite as easy as they had envisioned.

Most of them are under-capitalized, and the majority of them don't know the difference between a stock and a bond. A lot of them believe the market owes them a living, and will blame the market for their lack of success, when in fact they lack the self-determination to succeed. There is nothing novel about this phenomenon. And, there is certainly nothing surprising about the response it is generating.

Other aspiring traders are eager to offer their advice. What's ironic is most of these traders are experiencing the same problems, and are incompetent at trading themselves. Incompetent traders are at a double disadvantage, since they are not only incompetent, but they are unawre of it. Almost 1/2 of them couldn't even pony up the $ to become elite members, most are on SIM and have no skin in the game, and I truly wonder how many of the others are consistently profitable to the point, where they can actually support themselves and a family, from their trading. Yet they are crawling all over themselves to tell-like-it-is; to explain how they have reinvented the wheel, and found the answer to the eternal question.

Their advice is a panoply of retail aphorisms and urban trading myths that have been propagated over the years, and regurgitated to the newbie masses. And, it's the same worthless garbage every time. You have to find your edge! Trade your plan! Find what suits you and makes you comfortable. Find a nice indicator you can settle down with and crank out 4 tics at a time. I haven't heard one expert that was offering advice say, "learn how the markets work" before you attempt to trade it.

What's ironic, Is that you'll never see these "experts" participating in threads about the markets and trading, because they really have little knowledge of how markets function, and little idea of what it really takes to make consistent and scalable profits. But they are very inclined to tell a newbie how to trade, and dispense advice with no uncertainty, blissfully ignorant of their own ineptitude. This only serves to perpetuate the cycle of retail mis-information, and re-cycle uninformed, unprepared traders that provide the winners their fresh and unknowing counterparts.

Most people are unlikely to think highly of anyone whose views they oppose. So when the newbie thinks about which person to listen to, whose advice to respect, and where to get his information, itís likely that he will choose the one that parallels his views, even though it may not be in his best interest. There have been countless times that @Big Mike and I have tried to steer people in the right direction, but people hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. And what's sad, not ironic, is that these words will probably fall on deaf ears, or not really be comprehended nor believed, and most assuredly, they will be ignored by most.

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  #106 (permalink)
Philly, Pa
 
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WoodyFox View Post
Because once you find it, its really all not that hard. Not the way some want to make you think. At least no harder than some other degrees out there. IMHO.

Agreed, up to a point!

As a leveraged trader, one makes short-term decisions/trades, manages the risk/ keeps draw-downs small & occasionally turns winning positions into big ones. Indeed, a simple strategy and path to follow.Scaling that simple strategy is another story, for many obvious reasons. Not the least of which is our knowledge of the markets is provisional and incomplete, and constantly requires revision. So, even if you are able to figure out the game that is being played, and what's working now; it doesn't mean that its grist for the mill tomorrow.

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  #107 (permalink)
Lexington KY
 
 
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



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Don't Quit reach out to me and I would love to help!

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  #108 (permalink)
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
 
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tigertrader View Post
I find it ironic, but not surprising that this thread is currently the most active thread on the forum. In the almost 10 years that I've been a member, (and @Big Mike will attest to this fact) we've gone through many, many, iterations of discussions on this very topic. It's almost a cyclical phenomenon. Another generation of aspiring traders embarking on what they think is going to be a walk-in-the-park, until they discover that achieving success in trading isn't quite as easy as they had envisioned.

Most of them are under-capitalized, and the majority of them don't know the difference between a stock and a bond. A lot of them believe the market owes them a living, and will blame the market for their lack of success, when in fact they lack the self-determination to succeed. There is nothing novel about this phenomenon. And, there is certainly nothing surprising about the response it is generating.

Other aspiring traders are eager to offer their advice. What's ironic is most of these traders are experiencing the same problems, and are incompetent at trading themselves. Incompetent traders are at a double disadvantage, since they are not only incompetent, but they are unawre of it. Almost 1/2 of them couldn't even pony up the $ to become elite members, most are on SIM and have no skin in the game, and I truly wonder how many of the others are consistently profitable to the point, where they can actually support themselves and a family, from their trading. Yet they are crawling all over themselves to tell-like-it-is; to explain how they have reinvented the wheel, and found the answer to the eternal question.

Their advice is a panoply of retail aphorisms and urban trading myths that have been propagated over the years, and regurgitated to the newbie masses. And, it's the same worthless garbage every time. You have to find your edge! Trade your plan! Find what suits you and makes you comfortable. Find a nice indicator you can settle down with and crank out 4 tics at a time. I haven't heard one expert that was offering advice say, "learn how the markets work" before you attempt to trade it.

What's ironic, Is that you'll never see these "experts" participating in threads about the markets and trading, because they really have little knowledge of how markets function, and little idea of what it really takes to make consistent and scalable profits. But they are very inclined to tell a newbie how to trade, and dispense advice with no uncertainty, blissfully ignorant of their own ineptitude. This only serves to perpetuate the cycle of retail mis-information, and re-cycle uninformed, unprepared traders that provide the winners their fresh and unknowing counterparts.

Most people are unlikely to think highly of anyone whose views they oppose. So when the newbie thinks about which person to listen to, whose advice to respect, and where to get his information, itís likely that he will choose the one that parallels his views, even though it may not be in his best interest. There have been countless times that @Big Mike and I have tried to steer people in the right direction, but people hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. And what's sad, not ironic, is that these words will probably fall on deaf ears, or not really be comprehended nor believed, and most assuredly, they will be ignored by most.


That was real.
This single statement you made (thank you) is the root of most human beings' problems in LIFE today.......it is what limits us all.

"People hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest"

In referencing it to Trading the markets:

It is hard to dig deep and look at once self with true honest reflection, finding the idiosyncrasies within ourselves that block us.
Most "want to be traders" will not endeavor to do so because the emotional pain is greater than the reward in their mind.

I am not profitable in my trading and I am not embarrassed to say that, because I know the effort in which I am putting forth will inevitably give me a result, will that result be that I become a consistent trader, (I leave profitable out because that is not the goal) "Consistent" is, that's the plan, but who can actually sit and say they know the actual result for every endeavor they try. Just because you can drive a car at 186 mph around a track does not mean you will win a NASCAR Race.......We can only try to achieve a result and the "amount" of effort is the key.....What are you willing to do!! to get there.

Dam you got me fired up today

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  #109 (permalink)
new york
 
Experience: None
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tigertrader View Post
I find it ironic, but not surprising that this thread is currently the most active thread on the forum. In the almost 10 years that I've been a member, (and @Big Mike will attest to this fact) we've gone through many, many, iterations of discussions on this very topic. It's almost a cyclical phenomenon. Another generation of aspiring traders embarking on what they think is going to be a walk-in-the-park, until they discover that achieving success in trading isn't quite as easy as they had envisioned.

Most of them are under-capitalized, and the majority of them don't know the difference between a stock and a bond. A lot of them believe the market owes them a living, and will blame the market for their lack of success, when in fact they lack the self-determination to succeed. There is nothing novel about this phenomenon. And, there is certainly nothing surprising about the response it is generating.

Other aspiring traders are eager to offer their advice. What's ironic is most of these traders are experiencing the same problems, and are incompetent at trading themselves. Incompetent traders are at a double disadvantage, since they are not only incompetent, but they are unawre of it. Almost 1/2 of them couldn't even pony up the $ to become elite members, most are on SIM and have no skin in the game, and I truly wonder how many of the others are consistently profitable to the point, where they can actually support themselves and a family, from their trading. Yet they are crawling all over themselves to tell-like-it-is; to explain how they have reinvented the wheel, and found the answer to the eternal question.

Their advice is a panoply of retail aphorisms and urban trading myths that have been propagated over the years, and regurgitated to the newbie masses. And, it's the same worthless garbage every time. You have to find your edge! Trade your plan! Find what suits you and makes you comfortable. Find a nice indicator you can settle down with and crank out 4 tics at a time. I haven't heard one expert that was offering advice say, "learn how the markets work" before you attempt to trade it.

What's ironic, Is that you'll never see these "experts" participating in threads about the markets and trading, because they really have little knowledge of how markets function, and little idea of what it really takes to make consistent and scalable profits. But they are very inclined to tell a newbie how to trade, and dispense advice with no uncertainty, blissfully ignorant of their own ineptitude. This only serves to perpetuate the cycle of retail mis-information, and re-cycle uninformed, unprepared traders that provide the winners their fresh and unknowing counterparts.

Most people are unlikely to think highly of anyone whose views they oppose. So when the newbie thinks about which person to listen to, whose advice to respect, and where to get his information, itís likely that he will choose the one that parallels his views, even though it may not be in his best interest. There have been countless times that @Big Mike and I have tried to steer people in the right direction, but people hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. And what's sad, not ironic, is that these words will probably fall on deaf ears, or not really be comprehended nor believed, and most assuredly, they will be ignored by most.

my goodness @tigertrader, that post packed an insane amount of truthiness.... well done

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  #110 (permalink)
Philly, Pa
 
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YogaTrading View Post
I know the effort in which I am putting forth will inevitably give me a result, will that result be that I become a consistent trader, (I leave profitable out because that is not the goal) "Consistent" is, that's the plan


The profit part, is kind of the whole idea. Consistency is important, especially if you are not well capitalized. But , you don't want to get in the habit of trading for average, or maximizing the chance of gain, by playing it safe. You want to maximize the gain. It's nice to say I make money on 80% of my trades, but how much money? It usually means you are not taking enough risk, not letting your winners run, and not trading enough.

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  #111 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: Intermediate
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tigertrader View Post
The profit part, is kind of the whole idea. Consistency is important, especially if you are not well capitalized. But , you don't want to get in the habit of trading for average, or maximizing the chance of gain, by playing it safe. You want to maximize the gain. It's nice to say I make money on 80% of my trades, but how much money? It usually means you are not taking enough risk, not letting your winners run, and not trading enough.

@tigertrader If you are trading ES for max gain, one will have more risk with a higher percent profitable by mean reversion. You can get and 80% win rate and low risk by trend trading it, but you will not be taking many trades and likely struggle to pin point these entries.

Its always fun to ride the long waves, but the big boy will kill you in the rough spots. JMHO.

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  #112 (permalink)
Philly, Pa
 
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WoodyFox View Post
@tigertrader If you are trading ES for max gain, one will have more risk with a higher percent profitable by mean reversion. You can get and 80% win rate and low risk by trend trading it, but you will not be taking many trades and likely struggle to pin point these entries.

Its always fun to ride the long waves, but the big boy will kill you in the rough spots. JMHO.


True, most trend following systems have average win rates because of high draw-downs during whipsaw periods. The fundamental problem of most trend-following systems is that in order to deliver a high payoff ratio they must sacrifice a high win rate. If you try to increase the fraction of winning trades, the payoff ratio will suffer. So in effect, you have to mitigate the negative effects of these problems by by combining a trend following strategy with a short-term trading system that would compensate for the negative trend following performance when markets are range-bound or mean-reverting. That's why you have to be able to switch gears, but first you have to be able recognize the trading environment you're operating in.

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  #113 (permalink)
Toronto Canada
 
 
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Everyone is giving plenty of advice here that you will likely find more confusing. You need to take more than a couple of steps back and do some real work on documentation. To find an edge you have to document all your trades on paper; not sim or live, just look at the right edge of a chart....pick an entry, a stop, and a target. (Each choice is independent of the other), then run the chart forward in time to see what the result was. This will allow you plenty of time to define your decisions in advance. Then write down why you made those choices and record the P/L stats, what went wrong and what was right. You need 100-300 trades with the same rules to be statistically significant and confident in your choices. If you can, put the rules and trades on spreadsheet to calculate an accurate p/l and ensure your rules work. If you change an entry and exit rule then redo another 100-300 "trades" to ensure your new rules work. This will take time but saves you money and builds consistency and confidence. You are now building a foundation of rules (ie system) that you can hold on to over time rather than just guessing.

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  #114 (permalink)
Scarborough
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Northernlimit View Post
Everyone is giving plenty of advice here that you will likely find more confusing. You need to take more than a couple of steps back and do some real work on documentation. To find an edge you have to document all your trades on paper; not sim or live, just look at the right edge of a chart....pick an entry, a stop, and a target. (Each choice is independent of the other), then run the chart forward in time to see what the result was. This will allow you plenty of time to define your decisions in advance. Then write down why you made those choices and record the P/L stats, what went wrong and what was right. You need 100-300 trades with the same rules to be statistically significant and confident in your choices. If you can, put the rules and trades on spreadsheet to calculate an accurate p/l and ensure your rules work. If you change an entry and exit rule then redo another 100-300 "trades" to ensure your new rules work. This will take time but saves you money and builds consistency and confidence. You are now building a foundation of rules (ie system) that you can hold on to over time rather than just guessing.


I really like this system of resetting, finding your own Trading support and then building your system and rules. Iím going to employ this in my studies as a way of controlling my impulsiveness Buying too early, I ride price down then ride it back up. I usually end up with a smaller gain than could have been if I was able to wait for a lower support area to go long. I always end up with 75 percent less than I should have. Like buying Gold this morning at 1708, riding it down to 1701, then riding it back up and selling it at 1711. I could have bought it at 1700 or 1701 or or 02 which was institutional support and sold it at resistance which was around 1712-1714. Made this mistake two days in a row leaving 20 to 40 ticks on the table. This will help me cure this impulsive patience-less act which is an abomination. Thank you for this.

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  #115 (permalink)
Toronto Canada
 
 
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Emmanuel Erskine View Post
I really like this system of resetting, finding your ground and system and then building your operation and rules. Iím going to employ this in my studies as a way of controlling my impulses. Buying too early, did I g down then riding up with the the market. I usually end up with a smaller gain than could hav sheen if I was able to wait for a lower support area. Always ending up with 75 percent less that I should have. Like buying Gold as 1707, riding it down to 1701, riding it back up and selling it at 1711. I could have bought it at 1700 which was institutional support and sold it at resistance which was around 1712-1714. Made this mistake two days in a row leaving 20 to 50ish ticks on the table. This will help me cure this impulsive patience-less act which is an abomination. Thank you for this.

That's exactly it....also, you can't beat yourself up as you are never going to hit top to bottom perfection, "leaving money on the table" means you didn't take a loss on other trades that were profitable and you waited too long; consistency is more important than high per trade p/l, just be happy making a bit of money consistently, and once you're doing it's more fun as you look to the next opportunity as it's easy to scale up. The importance of execution cost vs. trade p/l is important, there is a balance between getting out too early even if it's profitable, and too late...the only reason retail day traders exist is because trade execution cost has dropped so much, but that spread cost can't be ignored either.

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  #116 (permalink)
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: ES
 
YogaTrading's Avatar
 
Posts: 53 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 700 given, 108 received


tigertrader View Post
The profit part, is kind of the whole idea. Consistency is important, especially if you are not well capitalized. But , you don't want to get in the habit of trading for average, or maximizing the chance of gain, by playing it safe. You want to maximize the gain. It's nice to say I make money on 80% of my trades, but how much money? It usually means you are not taking enough risk, not letting your winners run, and not trading enough.

I agree......I wanted to make the "consistent" part to be more important in that statement, so often traders new and experienced can focus on the money, and that in itself can lead to other behavioral issues.

I developed a simple system, morphed together by different concepts that I found comfortable and understood. Somebody else may see it and go ..WTF..but that is part of trading, we all have a different set of lenses on.

It was not that I could not make money, it was I could not keep it, hence why I said I am not profitable, to be profitable means (to Me) you are consistent long term. What I am finding out about myself, is what has opened the door to that consistency.

Our behavior subconsciously with issues in our past come alive when we trade, more so in some than others, the way a person was raised and the experiences they had...developed their personality. It is why engineers and military men sometimes have an edge sometimes in trading.... let's face it discipline.... is a learned skill.....so is patience.......as humans we have issues......the more we can identify our own idiosyncrasies,(beliefs) the more we can repair our mindset...or so I believe, IMHO

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  #117 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro. Brazil.
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Trading: Emini ES
 
Posts: 7 since Sep 2019
Thanks: 7 given, 8 received

Big names have shown up, and I dont feel I have much to offer next to them, so I will just say what I have ''learned'' so far in this last 14 months of studying...

What you are going through everyone has passed (or still passing). Have you learnt why markets move? Have you studied price action, volume profile, risk management, harmonic trading, chart patterns, etc or are you solely depending on indicators someone said it is good?

I am not saying any of these is the Holy Grail (actually I dont think there is one), but studying these will help you develop a ďfeelingíí about what is going on.

One day in business school my teacher said: ''everything we want to learn has been probably written in a book, but your generation is too lazy to read and you want someone to show you the way.''
Thatís why when I began to study the markets, I was willing to read books from the authors and not only watching youtube videos (thatís the problem with our generation, including myself).
If someone is teaching on youtube or charging for a course, you can probably learn from the author himself.

I would say, stop trading live, go back to the basics, learn first, try in demo account for some months your strategy and then get ready for the emotions when trading live.

Now, I will say what has helped me improve (not saying I am good, just better than before):
-I've read 3 books on Elliot Wave, the one I liked the most was from Frost and Pretcher.
Iíve read other books on technical analysis, but for me Elliot wave is what makes the most sense (I donít know why).
-Read about trendlines, I really liked a book by Jeffrey Kennedy.
-I like Measured Moves (Al Brooks talks about it and there videos on youtube, what our generation like)
-Understand Volume Profile, there many books out there, and I really like FuturesTrader71's perspective. (And I watch his trader bite EVERY morning).
-A book that helped me a lot in the mental game was Trading in the Zone, by Mark Douglas, and I think every aspiring trader should read.

The best analogy for the markets in my head is: I have studied 5 years in a Brazilian Business School, spent around USD30.000 and when I finally finished, there was no job paying more than USD4.000/yr.
Still, I studied 5 years without receiving a penny for my future profession. If I study the markets for 5 years and get it right, my upside is ''unlimited''.
How long does an aspiring lawyer takes studying before he can practice law? Do I expect the markets to pay me in less than a year if I donít even know how it operates?
For me, learning the markets is like learning a new language, I've spent over 10 years studying English, in my first year I could get by, but far from perfect.
In 2 years I could understand almost everyone, but specific terms used by lawyers, doctors, scientists and American RAP was just impossible (lol). In 3-5 years things got waaaaay easier and nowadays everything sounds easy (and I am still learning new things).

Today, FuturesTrader71 said he trades over 20 years and he still adapts now and thenÖ So imagine me with 14 months?! I liked what @tigertrader wisely said, markets owes us nothing.

To summarize: Just donít give up! Nothing is easy, but I believe it will be well worth it.

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  #118 (permalink)
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: ES
 
YogaTrading's Avatar
 
Posts: 53 since Sep 2014
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foreverlearner View Post
Big names have shown up, and I dont feel I have much to offer next to them, so I will just say what I have ''learned'' so far in this last 14 months of studying...

What you are going through everyone has passed (or still passing). Have you learnt why markets move? Have you studied price action, volume profile, risk management, harmonic trading, chart patterns, etc or are you solely depending on indicators someone said it is good?

I am not saying any of these is the Holy Grail (actually I dont think there is one), but studying these will help you develop a ďfeelingíí about what is going on.

One day in business school my teacher said: ''everything we want to learn has been probably written in a book, but your generation is too lazy to read and you want someone to show you the way.''
Thatís why when I began to study the markets, I was willing to read books from the authors and not only watching youtube videos (thatís the problem with our generation, including myself).
If someone is teaching on youtube or charging for a course, you can probably learn from the author himself.

I would say, stop trading live, go back to the basics, learn first, try in demo account for some months your strategy and then get ready for the emotions when trading live.

Now, I will say what has helped me improve (not saying I am good, just better than before):
-I've read 3 books on Elliot Wave, the one I liked the most was from Frost and Pretcher.
Iíve read other books on technical analysis, but for me Elliot wave is what makes the most sense (I donít know why).
-Read about trendlines, I really liked a book by Jeffrey Kennedy.
-I like Measured Moves (Al Brooks talks about it and there videos on youtube, what our generation like)
-Understand Volume Profile, there many books out there, and I really like FuturesTrader71's perspective. (And I watch his trader bite EVERY morning).
-A book that helped me a lot in the mental game was Trading in the Zone, by Mark Douglas, and I think every aspiring trader should read.

The best analogy for the markets in my head is: I have studied 5 years in a Brazilian Business School, spent around USD30.000 and when I finally finished, there was no job paying more than USD4.000/yr.
Still, I studied 5 years without receiving a penny for my future profession. If I study the markets for 5 years and get it right, my upside is ''unlimited''.
How long does an aspiring lawyer takes studying before he can practice law? Do I expect the markets to pay me in less than a year if I donít even know how it operates?
For me, learning the markets is like learning a new language, I've spent over 10 years studying English, in my first year I could get by, but far from perfect.
In 2 years I could understand almost everyone, but specific terms used by lawyers, doctors, scientists and American RAP was just impossible (lol). In 3-5 years things got waaaaay easier and nowadays everything sounds easy (and I am still learning new things).

Today, FuturesTrader71 said he trades over 20 years and he still adapts now and thenÖ So imagine me with 14 months?! I liked what @tigertrader wisely said, markets owes us nothing.

To summarize: Just donít give up! Nothing is easy, but I believe it will be well worth it.

Touche...And so the journey begins with the understanding that nothing worthwhile is easy and it may take years to get to a level you want to be....but relative to other goals......why not!!... and along the way it improves your life...cherries on top...And that is a mindset worth having!!!
On we go....

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  #119 (permalink)
Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 1 since Mar 2020
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

At the outset thank you for posting. It takes a lot of courage to post something like this. What you are going through is quite common and I too have struggled and continue at times to struggle. My personal view about edge is that it is mental rather than having a system. Your edge, in my opinion comes from having discipline. Discipline in this case is a well-rehearsed plan at the beginning of every session or whatever time frame you chose to participate in. Under what circumstances and what areas will you engage in the market? How much you are willing and able to lose per trade to determine your sizing and stops? At what point do you stop trading. The only thing that allows you over a period of time to make money in this business is consistency Ė in approach. Tome that is your edge. The reality (IMHO) is that no one really has an edge from a perspective of having the ďHoly GrailĒ when it comes to trading. Your chances of success on any given trade is 50/50. It is your discipline over a period of time which allows you to make money and perhaps improve your historical odds to 60/40 or whatever. Some succeed at even 30% or 40% because of strict risk mismanagement rules.

I guess what I am trying to say, is to take a step back. Create a routine for yourself and stick to it, to prevent the frustration of the market jerking you around. The market reaches its objective sometimes in mysterious ways and unless you have very deep pockets or are very experienced it is not easy to hold on to a losing position. Bottom line is you have to start thinking in terms of protecting your capital first and foremost. The rest will fall into place if you are disciplined. If you do not have the capital you cannot trade so focusing on the gains (FOMO) is inconsequential.

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  #120 (permalink)
Scarborough
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Trading: Emini ES
 
Posts: 27 since Apr 2020


Northernlimit View Post
That's exactly it....also, you can't beat yourself up as you are never going to hit top to bottom perfection, "leaving money on the table" means you didn't take a loss on other trades that were profitable and you waited too long; consistency is more important than high per trade p/l, just be happy making a bit of money consistently, and once you're doing it's more fun as you look to the next opportunity as it's easy to scale up. The importance of execution cost vs. trade p/l is important, there is a balance between getting out too early even if it's profitable, and too late...the only reason retail day traders exist is because trade execution cost has dropped so much, but that spread cost can't be ignored either.


I aspire to think like you and come to a comfortable understanding like you. I am grateful for your insight. Everyday I discover brilliance and wisdom which allows me to appreciate this forum more than I could have expected. Thank you for taking the time to share your wisdom and insight into your psychology. I have benefited a lot. Consistency is important. Greed must be overcome. When the market shows you the money take it and say thank you. Donít cry over what you left on the table. Be content. Tomorrow do it again. Thank you.

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  #121 (permalink)
Missioul Montana usa
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Trading: nq
 
Posts: 10 since Feb 2016
Thanks: 1 given, 29 received

It helps to take the long view on learning about markets. Most folks start trading waaaay to soon without much knowledge and especially not enough execution practice. Think like 10,000 hours of learning and practice. How many swings did Tiger Woods take before he turned pro? How much did he learn about the game? When you enter the market..believe it or not you are paying to play with pro's. Not everyone in the markets, just the ones taking all the $. At Tigers peak he would get up run 4 miles, lift for 3 hours in the gym, spend hours working on his long, middle and short game then run another 4 miles. So lets just say it takes time and commitment and some obsession. Frankly since you seem attracted to es or sim..Ide learn all I could..find and edge then sim/demo say Ninjatrader futures w free live data for a few weeks..then more. See if you can have some success w that first. I wont get into sim trading here cuz its so misunderstood and not used properly and it triggers debate but it has value if you use it effectively, getting to the point where your execution, your swing is..perfect and automatic. Even if you have an edge, (and you need many) you have to understand on a deep level that the wins/losses are distributed randomly within the parameters of the edge. You could get the losers all up front! An algo does not have a problem with that but humans do. Be the algo , be the price, do what it does...and not the commentary in your head (ego that just wants to be right and thus is responsible for thousands of cognitive biases). Learn all you can, find your edges that work for you. Then remember if x occurs do x1, if y occurs do y1. Imagine different scenarios and take the one that confirms. (Bruce Kovner). Your story is everyone's story at first. You are not a failure by any means. I'm not sure where folks get the idea there is anything easy about trading. Fascinating, challenging..for sure, but not easy. I'de say more like very, very difficult and elusive. We can learn say from a Grand Chess Master. They have 20,000 games in memory, can easily see a full game ahead (and there are grand masters in the markets..a GM in chess is lucky to make a mil a year..there is really no limit in the markets). What they realized (and this is true for the markets) is that they see the board and the players differently over time. The same is true for traders and the markets. Anyone's "advice, and or opinions" here including mine is a snapshot of where they are at right now. There's and yours will change over time. So if you are fascinated by the markets..maybe obsessed a bit..take your time..watch it, learn it..things will come to you ..then more things. Can always quit, or not. Don't beat yourself up either way. Good luck, either way. Trading's not for everyone. Wouldn't expect to just learn something, some edge and go make a success of trading. One can learn everything and still not be able to trade successfully. Seeing the market and executing in it are two different skill sets. A fave quote.."some stuff works some of the time". Mahalo

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  #122 (permalink)
buffalo grove, Illinois/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: Emini ES
 
Posts: 6 since Feb 2017
Thanks: 4 given, 10 received


snax View Post
@tonybravo, re-reading your post now...do you have a chart of a trade you could post for reference? That might elicit more responses and get more ideas you can work with.
.My first post ever on FIO is this one:

I don't have a clue what I was talking about and I keep coming back to that chart after all this time and I can't figure out what in the world I was thinking. We all start somewhere and I am still struggling.

,
IF YOU REALLY DON'T HAVE A CLUE, DON'T TRADE WITH REAL MONEY!!! JUST PAPER TRADE UNTIL U FIGURE IT OUT. Trading is a business, you need to treat it like one, meaning you don't trade for "fun". You trade for one reason only, and that is to make money. if you are not making money then stop trading a live account. Also, this is an extremely difficult time to start trading, the market is extremely choppy, with much less follow-thru then usual. only traders with excellent execution will be profitable at this time. So my advise is to paper trade till such time that u are consistently profitable (on paper), then switch to a live account.

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  #123 (permalink)
Shirley
 
 
Posts: 5 since Jun 2019
Thanks: 0 given, 6 received


Xman007 View Post
Hey Tony.

I suggest that you move (back?) to demo mode until you have established a repeatable edge. Sounds like you are the victim of hopeium the same stuff that many of us have overdosed on.

It is good that you are bleeding slowly (MES instead of ES) but I am not sure if you are following a trading plan that produces positive results. Getting "Lucky"is one of the worst things that can happen for it offers a double portion of hopeium and encourages you to trade out side the lines of the Proven Trading Plan. Do you have one, written or thought out? Write it out so that you can reference it clearly and modify it as market conditions change.

Save you capital until you have a good reason to believe in your plan, (repeated success in demo mode).

I am sure that others will chime in with sage advice but that should be a good start.

Hang in there man, it does get better if you put the time in!

I wouldn't call losing $750 in a few weeks trading micros a slow bleed. I would call that hemorrhaging. I do agree with the rest of your post. Sim account until you can consistently show gains. Everybody thinks it's an easy way to get some quick money or even strike it rich. It's quite the opposite. Then there's the psychological effects. The loss that slams your ego or the endorphin rush from a nice gain. Yeah, easy it isn't. I always think of the line by Ed Sekota from Market Wizards "I guess everybody gets what they want from the market".

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  #124 (permalink)
South Elgin IL/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP CQG
Trading: ES
 
romerico's Avatar
 
Posts: 6 since Oct 2013
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You need guidance. Go to Jigsawtrading.com They are a trading software vendor with available , and very good, education available.

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  #125 (permalink)
Australia/New Zealand
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja trader
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 3 since Oct 2018
Thanks: 56 given, 1 received

It should be clear the original poster of this thread doesn't want help any extra help. After reading thru the >80% BS posts on here i noted, he likes to like posts, but offers absolutely nothing for anyone to help.

And as far as good advice, the first 2 pages of the thread has more than enough info for this trader to keep him busy for the conceivable future

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  #126 (permalink)
Ocala, Florida
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Thinkorswim, OEC
Broker: Apex, TDA
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 2 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 6 received


tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

You need... a strategy for entering and exiting with consistency to acquire confidence.
...a defined target within a range.
...stop following price!
...learn the market internals and what they mean at what levels and have them in front of you in real time. You cannot trade successfully without that understanding and information. That will help you determine what direction you should be trading, or if you should be trading. That alone has value.
...no diagonal lines, channels, bands, mcclellen, etc on your charts. Learn the wrong way and you will pay.
...stop following price!
...no moving averages. Levels are horizontal. It's just noise that doesn't help with what's happening now! If they worked, Big Mike wouldn't have needed to create this forum/website.
...realistic goals/targets. #1 reason why people fail at trading: nebulous goals.
...stop following price!
...NEVER chase price! See above. Better to be too early than too late with 1/3 position, then manage the trade.
...define what is "risk" and what is "opportunity".
...trade in a news vacuum. NO news, NO TWITTER!(other than entertainment) It's noise and too late anyway. Somebody always knows.
There is no substitute for trading with live vs paper account. However, at the point you are at, to build your skill set and confidence, it is the next best way to determine if/when you should "withdraw and go home", or not.
More tips:
The 1st 15 min and last 15 minutes of RTH's there is no NBBO...so until you have the aforementioned under your belt, you should observe those time periods, but don't trade them unless you are in profit and/or want to gamble.

Like the baseball player that only wants to hit sliders....he'll ignore every pitch unless it's a slider.
He doesn't wrack his brain trying to figure out in advance WHEN the pitcher throws one..he's focused on identifying it WHEN he sees it, i.e., strategy/setup.

Learn what is comfortable for you. Just watching the first 15 minutes knowing you are not going to enter and watching the reaction after the NBBO is taken off will be so much more relaxing...and then if/when you have a setup with your new skill set, trade it.

If you follow your plan, there will never be "bad trades", only good trades. Not all trade will be successful, but that's by no means a bad trade. How you manage the trade is crucial.

Peace.

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  #127 (permalink)
Seattle, WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation + Bookmap
Trading: ES only
 
Posts: 23 since Aug 2016
Thanks: 11 given, 57 received

I will share with you what it took me ten years of wandering in the woods of futures to learn:

FORGET ABOUT INDICATORS

There, I said it, and probably 95% of the readers on this website are thinking to themselves: Are you kidding? This guy must be nuts.

But from my perspective, what indicators have the potential to tell you is: WHERE HAS PRICE GONE --- NOT where is price going? --- which is what you really want to know --- the future, not the past.

And at least in my experience, the only thing that I've found that has the potential to tell me where price is going is price itself, not some mathematical formulation of where it has been.

And the only way that I've been able to do that is to look at price charts and keep looking at them to look for recurring price patterns. They're there. You just have to be patient and look at lots of price charts and days and days (and months and months) of price charts to find them. And at least in my experience, they will give you the edge that you need to make money in the markets. Maybe not the only way, but at least one way --- and one way is all you need, a repeatable, demonstrable edge. And then, if you can get your emotions out of the way and consistently execute what you have found, you might be able to make a buck as a futures trader.

My best to you however you decide to proceed.

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  #128 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Futures
 
WoodyFox's Avatar
 
Posts: 266 since May 2016
Thanks: 104 given, 534 received


seattle7 View Post
I will share with you what it took me ten years of wandering in the woods of futures to learn:

FORGET ABOUT INDICATORS

There, I said it, and probably 95% of the readers on this website are thinking to themselves: Are you kidding? This guy must be nuts.

But from my perspective, what indicators have the potential to tell you is: WHERE HAS PRICE GONE --- NOT where is price going? --- which is what you really want to know --- the future, not the past.

And at least in my experience, the only thing that I've found that has the potential to tell me where price is going is price itself, not some mathematical formulation of where it has been.

And the only way that I've been able to do that is to look at price charts and keep looking at them to look for recurring price patterns. They're there. You just have to be patient and look at lots of price charts and days and days (and months and months) of price charts to find them. And at least in my experience, they will give you the edge that you need to make money in the markets. Maybe not the only way, but at least one way --- and one way is all you need, a repeatable, demonstrable edge. And then, if you can get your emotions out of the way and consistently execute what you have found, you might be able to make a buck as a futures trader.

My best to you however you decide to proceed.

I couldn't agree more with the indicator part (Although I've had some success with them), but the part about "not some mathematical formulation" couldn't be further from fact. I am glad you are able to build and edge without math, and if it works keep doing it.

But....By using math you can certainly predict with a certain degree of accuracy how the market may react. And it is a pretty nice degree of accuracy. Please refer to Jim Simmons and Renaissance Technologies.

Math is what kicked my trading into hyper drive. JMHO.

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  #129 (permalink)
Tel Aviv, Israel
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES,NQ,STOCKS
 
Posts: 10 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 5 given, 5 received

Hi,
You got a lot of ideas from others to go forward.
I suggest you to choose ES as your trading instrument.It is less volatile in this high volatility fast moving market.Others like NQ or Russel 2000 is too volatile to trade these days.
You can also use MES but only for practicing for few days,because after commissions and exchange fees there is no profit for retail trader.
Study 2 or three day trade/scalp methods and practice first in a demo platform and afterwords real trade with 1 contract.
In non trendy days try the technique of closing of gaps..This usually occurs in the first hour of RTH.
Use VWAP trading method.
If you have time, study order flow trades: 2 methods that suits you.
Use small profit / stop loss 50-100$ per trade. (ACCORDING TO RHYTHM OF MARKET) . If random movement is higher than your affordable stop stay clear of market.
Be positive.

Good luck

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  #130 (permalink)
canada
 
 
Posts: 12 since Apr 2020
Thanks: 38 given, 21 received


Shippy View Post
It should be clear the original poster of this thread doesn't want help any extra help. After reading thru the >80% BS posts on here i noted, he likes to like posts, but offers absolutely nothing for anyone to help.

And as far as good advice, the first 2 pages of the thread has more than enough info for this trader to keep him busy for the conceivable future

If you have nothing constructive to say, keep it to yourself.


Sent using the futures.io mobile app

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  #131 (permalink)
Australia/New Zealand
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja trader
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 3 since Oct 2018
Thanks: 56 given, 1 received


tonybravo View Post
If you have nothing constructive to say, keep it to yourself.


Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Well it was intended to entice you out of your quiet spot, and see if you were willing to write more. Many people have written and asked questions in relation to your trading plan/style in order to try and help, however nothing at all has come back.

And please don't think there was nothing constructive in my post. I just honestly can't see any more than what was written in those first 2 pages helping, and that is because of the quality of the responses you received in those 2 pages.

I love trading, I love to be proven wrong. Please then, help the people that are trying to help you, prove me wrong.

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  #132 (permalink)
Florida/USA
 
 
Posts: 3 since May 2020
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Trader's aren't born with an edge. They either develop it or they don't. It takes time and practice.

You have so much actionable advice on this thread so I am only writing to say good luck and give yourself some time to learn what you want your edge to be then work your ass off to develop it. You need more money before you go live so you have time. Of course I know you want to start now but it is better to be patient, build up your capital and learn. Trading isn't going away. To become a trader that doesn't go away (like most) you have to think long term. It isn't easy but it is worth it.


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  #133 (permalink)
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

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Hello Tony, seems your scalping, I think scalping is a bit like standing behind the one-armed-bandit, it is very stressful and most of the time you feel you are wrong, while you might be right. I tried this a few weeks, and it gave me some extra gray hair.

Stick with the Micros, preferable MYM or MES, a little bit slower than the MNQ. Use the Russel (M2K) as you leading indicator (most of the time this one starts running before the rest follows), but give yourself some more time. And over trading is something that we all did and we still do sometimes. (I was up yesterday $1200 and closed with a -$1400) but don't kick yourself, as long as you are good by the end of the month. NEVER EVER trade with money you cannot afford to loose, this would put more mental stress and works AGAINST your trading.

Never stick with the trade when it really goes against you a lot, it will kill your portfolio, period. If you cannot admit being wrong and telling the world you should be right, than forget about it. Trading is not about YOU being right, it is about the MARKET is being right and you just follow it, nothing else.

It is work, it is fun, it is challenging but most of all, if you can break even or gain at the end of the month, you did a good job.

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  #134 (permalink)
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.



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To be fair - this realization puts you ahead of 99% of traders.

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  #135 (permalink)
Knoxville Tennessee USA
 
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If you do sim trade, take it seriously. If you make 40 sim trades in a day, and end up with a gain of $12.00 you have learned nothing.
Limit yourself to 5 trades per day (for example) and only pick the best of the best situations that fit your criteria. Trade for a week and review progress.

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  #136 (permalink)
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datahogg View Post
If you do sim trade, take it seriously. If you make 40 sim trades in a day, and end up with a gain of $12.00 you have learned nothing.
Limit yourself to 5 trades per day (for example) and only pick the best of the best situations that fit your criteria. Trade for a week and review progress.

I agree - but some people just 'break it' - get to a point where it's meaningless. They abused SIM trading so much it becomes useless to them.

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  #137 (permalink)
Frederick, MD
 
 
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This is the thread that really pulled me in. I signed up over a month ago realizing there is no way i'm going to get this game on my own.

Posting here to up my count so i can reply to my own post or at least thank @Epistemophilic (can't PM either) for putting in more research on my account questions that it would seem i have. lots of reading ahead.

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  #138 (permalink)
Fletcher NC
 
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no edge .. he is saying i can not trade .. every member on here knows that feeling . we also know there is little we can do to help him . it took most of us 5 plus years and we still have losses that are painful . the only advice i can say to help is .... stay away from trading educators ... they can not trade as well .

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  #139 (permalink)
Monroeville, ohio
 
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There are times I get frustrated. I look for the right game plan. A lot of times. I am ready to quit.

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  #140 (permalink)
Reno, Nevada
 
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Jigsaw Trading View Post
I agree - but some people just 'break it' - get to a point where it's meaningless. They abused SIM trading so much it becomes useless to them.

What do you mean "abused SIM trading"? It only becomes useless if people don't know how to test their ideas and trading setups. And that's a huge problem with 90% of traders - they don't know how to test. If pilots, surgeons and companies who design cars and aircraft didn't test their skills and products, we would have a lot of dead bodies around as a result.

If wannabe traders don't know how to test, they may as well give up the ship.

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  #141 (permalink)
Verona, KY
 
 
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forgiven View Post
no edge .. he is saying i can not trade .. every member on here knows that feeling . we also know there is little we can do to help him . it took most of us 5 plus years and we still have losses that are painful . the only advice i can say to help is .... stay away from trading educators ... they can not trade as well .

I would disagree with this admonition to this extent: Adam Grimes is a quant and trader who provides an excellent and free market training series. About 30 hrs of videos, and a large volume of free reference and training materials.

One has nothing to lose, and a lot to gain from at least taking a look. https://www.marketlifetrading.com/course/index

I've been returning to the markets after a 20 year absence, and his materials have provided an effective "on ramp," at least for me. I'm grateful to him for sharing so much information, experience and worthwhile opinions.

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  #142 (permalink)
Frederick, MD
 
 
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being new to this game i have to wonder about all the free training material out there. i think i'm reaching the end of free youtube content on the subjects of day trading & technical analysis.
I even started a Kindle unlimited subscription and while it is not exactly free, not every trading instructional book is included. is this the best quality or even comparable to the textbooks that are not included at this price level?
and whats the alternative, pay these trading "gurus"?

Back to the title of this original post, i have no edge, i feel like i could spend as much time learning terot cards and apply that to technical analysis as an edge with as much success.....

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  #143 (permalink)
College Point, NY, USA
 
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danimal7777 View Post
I would disagree with this admonition to this extent: Adam Grimes is a quant and trader who provides an excellent and free market training series. About 30 hrs of videos, and a large volume of free reference and training materials.

One has nothing to lose, and a lot to gain from at least taking a look. https://www.marketlifetrading.com/course/index

I've been returning to the markets after a 20 year absence, and his materials have provided an effective "on ramp," at least for me. I'm grateful to him for sharing so much information, experience and worthwhile opinions.

his training is indeed very good and i highly recommend it. but trading his approach is another story. i have been looking at his forex calls, i have no further comments.....

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  #144 (permalink)
Verona, KY
 
 
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kingfish8877 View Post
his training is indeed very good and i highly recommend it. but trading his approach is another story. i have been looking at his forex calls, i have no further comments.....

Can't disagree with you in that regard. He monitors and identifies continuation trades, not reversions. Choppiness pretty well beats up a number of his recommendations. Earlier this year when the currencies were more prone to continuation, he cleaned up on a handful of them. Comes and goes, just like my trading!!!!

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  #145 (permalink)
Fletcher NC
 
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danimal7777 View Post
I would disagree with this admonition to this extent: Adam Grimes is a quant and trader who provides an excellent and free market training series. About 30 hrs of videos, and a large volume of free reference and training materials.

One has nothing to lose, and a lot to gain from at least taking a look. https://www.marketlifetrading.com/course/index

I've been returning to the markets after a 20 year absence, and his materials have provided an effective "on ramp," at least for me. I'm grateful to him for sharing so much information, experience and worthwhile opinions.

i would agree Grimes is one of the few good guys in trading education . i have taken his free course . it would help him I.D. brake out failure , trend continuing , and a other core material. however Grimes is not an expert in day trading . that is a different ball game. most folks on here are wanting to do that.

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  #146 (permalink)
Verona, KY
 
 
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forgiven View Post
i would agree Grimes is one of the few good guys in trading education . i have taken his free course . it would help him I.D. brake out failure , trend continuing , and a other core material. however Grimes is not an expert in day trading . that is a different ball game. most folks on here are wanting to do that.

Interesting, Forgiven, I haven't spent enough time here to realize there was a balance of interest in day trading. I guess now is a pretty good time for it, with the continuing high volatility.

During more "normal" times, I always had aggravations with the lack of "elbow room" within a trading day. Like 30 to 40 handles wall-to-wall in S&P or bonds. I prefer swings, but often wind up punching out during the entry day as a defensive issue. So, I guess I'm often a "reluctant daytrader."

Enough styles to go around for everyone!!

Regards!!

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  #147 (permalink)
Philadelphia Pa/USA
 
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Nothing could be more true. Trading with 2 contracts is way easier than trading with one...unless you have software that can move your stop after a certain number of ticks go in your favor.

Nowhere have I seen a reason for why the trades are being taken?
What's the plan here? Trading a news event? One needs a purpose and a method to trade well.

What is yours?

Leigh Goldstein

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  #148 (permalink)
melbourne victoria australia
 
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To become a profitable trader you need to be well educated, like any other profession. you cannot become a doctor or a accountant overnight, so the Idea anyone can open an account at a broker and then start trading and expect to make money it does not work that way. For you are up against some of the brightest coming out of the elite universities, and institutions with very deep pockets, moreover machine trading with bots .

That said there is room for the small retail trader which is the agility and flexibility of day trading for instance,.

Now education is a difficult one there are so many vendors out there canvasing there courses, whereby a majority of them are dubious at least by the complaints, of spending thousands with no results of profitability.

There are a many different approaches to trading and there needs to be a fit to the style of how you would like to trade, this site is ideal for that approach as there is a many well educated and profitable traders to assist and try different styles and then recommend a reputable vendor for you.

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  #149 (permalink)
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phantomtrader View Post
What do you mean "abused SIM trading"? It only becomes useless if people don't know how to test their ideas and trading setups. And that's a huge problem with 90% of traders - they don't know how to test. If pilots, surgeons and companies who design cars and aircraft didn't test their skills and products, we would have a lot of dead bodies around as a result.

If wannabe traders don't know how to test, they may as well give up the ship.

I mean that some people go through that whole process of becoming a SIM millionaire, then blowing SIM accounts, then shooting for SIM stars so many times that SIM becomes meaningless for them.

Sometimes you break something beyond the point it can be repaired.

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  #150 (permalink)
Bend OR
 
 
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FlynntMaverick View Post
being new to this game i have to wonder about all the free training material out there. i think i'm reaching the end of free youtube content on the subjects of day trading & technical analysis.
I even started a Kindle unlimited subscription and while it is not exactly free, not every trading instructional book is included. is this the best quality or even comparable to the textbooks that are not included at this price level?
and whats the alternative, pay these trading "gurus"?

Back to the title of this original post, i have no edge, i feel like i could spend as much time learning terot cards and apply that to technical analysis as an edge with as much success.....

Hehe, yeah, I can't stand watching another video... 99% of them are using totally illogical analysis techniques IMHO. Like candles, trendlines drawn 'intuitively' nevermind calculated/drawn wrong, squigglies (indicators) that don't have any meaningful information, everything is bar-centric [who cares about those pesky swings that actually mean something], using one chart (scale) to trade off of [who cares about that pesky trend direction].

Some have a catchy title, and then in the video they're telling you things like "you should always have a stop loss". OMG. Super lame. They should have titled their video "super lame braindead advice for total beginners".

And, don't get me started about the salespeople...
Typical sales pitch: "...don't be like the 'retail traders' and lose money, the big guys run stops and the retail traders lose." Well, I don't think that's entirely accurate. IF the "retail traders" were losing all the time, they would quit due to having no more money to lose. So, logic dictates that this premise is false.
Sales pitch #2: "...you can make TONS of money in the "first hour" of the day." Yeah, sure you can make $50 maybe. But you're leaving $100's/$1000's on the table by quitting after that first hour. Yeah, if you're ALREADY a millionaire, then maybe you don't mind making only $50 a day on your $15,000 capital. That's 10% a month return on your invested capital. That's not bad. But the people interested in learning how to trade aren't looking to make 10% a month, they're looking for more than that so they can actually live off this income. Geez.
Sales pitch #3: "...make $10,000 in one hour" (or one day -- whatever)" BUT, the catch is they don't tell you how many shares/contracts/lots that is! They don't tell you how much they make on ONE lot/contract, the truth is it's probably much less exciting, like $100 a day or whatever. Plus they don't tell you that they only make that much one day out of the year. HAHAHA LAME.

Aaaaand, if you want their "expert" training, it's gonna cost $5,000 - $10,000, or, they have a monthly fee. OUCH! That's what it costs to tell you that they basically just look at big levels (or lines/channels) for their setups and then their signal is some kind of breakout (like a 20-bar-lkback ema) & the old classic 'step/zig-zag' pattern (iow for a buy signal it'd be a higher low followed by a higher high). Oops -- I just told you all their secrets! Now you owe me $5,000. Oh, I forgot one thing... at least look at the ~next larger scale to make sure you don't go against the trend direction, and/or also look at the dominant scale's trend direction. And signals use a smaller scale than the setups. Uh oh, now you owe me $10,000.

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  #151 (permalink)
SpeculatorSeth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
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Jigsaw Trading View Post
I mean that some people go through that whole process of becoming a SIM millionaire, then blowing SIM accounts, then shooting for SIM stars so many times that SIM becomes meaningless for them.

Sometimes you break something beyond the point it can be repaired.

I think it goes much further than just abusing the sim account. Sim is like practice, but what good is practice if the method you are practicing has components that are just wrong? Then all you're doing is ingraining bad habits.

To put it in perspective we have to remember that edge is not really a singular thing. It's not like there's just this one secret ingredient that you need and then suddenly you're profitable. There are countless edges that you'll have to develop to stand a chance in the market, and that's just to break even. It's difficult to know what things you have wrong. Otherwise you'd already be working on it right? So you start experimenting, maybe you get lucky and find something.

I think it's fair to say that I've abused sim from time to time. There's times where I realize I just don't have edge, and start trying crazy things that usually don't work out. There's severe limitations, and eventually you'll hit a wall. I just don't want anyone to think "well if I don't abuse it then I should be ok". The problem is bigger than that. Sim isn't going to tell me that corporate bond offerings bring hedgers into the treasury market that can temporarily bring down price. I watched that Gary Norden webinar on the institutional trading day 3 times before I realized that's what I was seeing in the tape. But at least if you're trading sim you're not blowing all your capital while you try to figure it out.

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  #152 (permalink)
Boca Raton, FL
 
 
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tigertrader View Post
....

You could put a 21MA, 50MA, and 200MA on your chart. A lot of low latency algos incorporate these averages (especially 50MA) and you would be surprised by how often they signal moves. They also help, to put the market in a directional and timeframe perspective...

Can I ask how you know of this?

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  #153 (permalink)
Braunschweig Germany
 
 
Posts: 12 since Dec 2019

It depends solely on what you're looking for. If it's your dream, than just follow it and don't pay attention to problems. Trading isn't about luck, it's about your skills. You should learn more, I think.

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  #154 (permalink)
Palm Harbor, Florida/USA
 
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TWDsje View Post
I think it goes much further than just abusing the sim account. Sim is like practice, but what good is practice if the method you are practicing has components that are just wrong? Then all you're doing is ingraining bad habits.

So true! I had a fencing instructor who said "Practice doesn't make perfect. Perfect practice makes perfect".

And then there's that definition of insanity.

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  #155 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Salt Lake City, UT
 
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Hilarious post! Love it!


thoughtful View Post
....Oops -- I just told you all their secrets! Now you owe me $5,000. Oh, I forgot one thing... at least look at the ~next larger scale to make sure you don't go against the trend direction, and/or also look at the dominant scale's trend direction. And signals use a smaller scale than the setups. Uh oh, now you owe me $10,000.


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  #156 (permalink)
boise idaho
 
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CLEARING YOUR MIND OF FALSE CONCEPTS FIRST

1) "Learning to Trade" strongly suggests that there is a "before I learned it" and then an "after I've learned it" and make lots of money. Because there is a phrase, does not mean there is such a reality.

2) "Learning to Trade a very Specific niche Market with Specific Techniques" can be a more realistic thing to strive for. Obviously, there are so many markets, driven by so many factors; that it may be wishful thinking to regard trading as some generic skill. Sure, it's a "generic skill of buying lower than you sell, consistently, and thus making profits" but that doesn't tell you how to time your entries to achieve that goal.

3) Price is what most traders are watching; and, after all, it's one price against another price later in time, which determines whether you make money. Obviously Price is important ! But Price doesn't predict Price, it doesn't predict itself !! Maybe a "pattern of price" could predict future price, but you get my point.

4) Accept that you must be able to "predict" the future; in order to be a successful trader. That is the future of price movement from now, in a very specific market, using some indications which are as objective as possible, and as predictive as possible.

5) Understand that the "garbage in / garbage out" principle applies, and that any indicator can be applied to Price movements, but you must keep in mind the distinction whether these are only "describing" what just happened, or are they "predictive" of what is to come? A bit of the "scientific method" mindset is very helpful.

6) Understand that traders are looking for patterns; and that in their search for a pattern that seems to work, they approach the mentality of a Gambler. There is an element of gambling in Trading; but most traders would like to think they have a Business which is based upon something consistently objective and profitable. The "double blind" objectivity of a scientist is there for a reason. "Confirmation Bias" is a real thing, and examples which support your particular theory or hunch are remembered, while counter-examples are easily forgotten, as you attempt to convince yourself you have a Predictive model which...

...which gives you the "Edge" you believe, rightly, that you need to have.

Look for something other than Price which may "stand behind" or "drive" price; whether that be some a) fundamental market research which applies to your trading/investing timeframes, or b) some Technical Analysis which you are able to show is positively correlated and predicts outcomes. Otherwise, yes, you are lost; and should throw in the towel.

hyperscalper

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  #157 (permalink)
San anselmo ca
 
 
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That is very well stated! Hyper, Thank you. Now if I could just find that edge. I have spent years looking at this and looking at that. It will work a bit and then not, I must say I have loved it and have no regrets although it has been a great time waster. Hope springs eternal.

Always keep in mind that selling the idea of trading and making money is where the money is! Sell the sizzile and not the steak. Any time you see boats and fast cars in the ad you know its sizzzzl.
Others try other sales methods, its all the same. They need you to cover their losses.

Trading is very personal I think and does not pass to others with much ease. Bottom line is that nobody is going to let just any swinging dick just come and take the money you have to very very clear to make any money in this market place.

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  #158 (permalink)
boise idaho
 
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Upordown View Post
That is very well stated! Hyper, Thank you. Now if I could just find that edge. I have spent years looking at this and looking at that. It will work a bit and then not, I must say I have loved it and have no regrets although it has been a great time waster. Hope springs eternal.

Always keep in mind that selling the idea of trading and making money is where the money is! Sell the sizzile and not the steak. Any time you see boats and fast cars in the ad you know its sizzzzl.
Others try other sales methods, its all the same. They need you to cover their losses.

Trading is very personal I think and does not pass to others with much ease. Bottom line is that nobody is going to let just any swinging dick just come and take the money you have to very very clear to make any money in this market place.

For my money, the edge is in "deep" Technical Analysis. Not the usual stuff looking at Price movements, but digging into Inventory, Risk and Depth of Market quote placement bias. But this is something only the very few dedicated, maniacal, traders are able to do. I would advise you to learn how to code in a serious Object Oriented, multi-threaded, language like C#, but for me, it's Java; both are similar, so C#'s probably going to win, since Ninja, ATAS and other platforms use it. You need to be a pro level programmer; but, if you invest that time, then you will be able to implement your ideas, and have a better chance of succeeding. Not only in Analytics, but also in Order Entry, of course you can write your own Order placement assistants, etc. which go beyond what the platforms offer.

hyperscalper

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  #159 (permalink)
Clearwater+Florida/United States
 
 
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Interesting viewpoint on becoming a programmer Hyper. Do you think Bloodhound and Blackbird could be a subsitute for learning a programming language?

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  #160 (permalink)
boise idaho
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader adv C#/Java
Broker: NinjaTrader with LeeLoo
Trading: NinjaTrader 8 advanced Strategies and Indicators
 
Posts: 63 since Apr 2020
Thanks: 5 given, 79 received


chrisbergen View Post
Interesting viewpoint on becoming a programmer Hyper. Do you think Bloodhound and Blackbird could be a subsitute for learning a programming language?

Not knowing much about those things, I'd say there's no substitute for a "real" programming language. If you can't do multi-threading; object oriented analysis and implementation in something like C# then you're always bound by the tool you've used, as an excuse for not diving in and learning how serious programming is done. (no offense meant, in any way).

You'll never be "free" and be able to implement your wacky ideas unless you abandon scripts, frameworks, and learn a real programming language. But I'm old and biased

hyperscalper

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  #161 (permalink)
melbourne victoria australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninjatrader
Broker: FXCM
Trading: AUS200
 
Posts: 110 since Apr 2016
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The first step in becoming a successful trader is to understand your own psychological makeup, because once in a trade , logic goes out the window. this is because the emotions of fear and greed take precedence . To be a consistently successful trader the most important trait is to learn emotional discipline.

Second step is money management. Risk in terms of individual trades and risk as a percentage of account size. Understanding that losses are apart of trading ''The Holy Grail'' does not exist

Third step you must have a methodology that is objectively definable. That is a systematic unwavering way of examining price action, it should be simple enough, that if someone asks how you make a decision to trade you can quickly and easily explain and if someone asks the same question in six months time it will be the same answer, however that is not to say the method cannot be improved.

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  #162 (permalink)
tucson
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Charts , Sceeto andTOS
Broker: AMP-Rithmic
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 24 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 3 given, 34 received

Agree with martinhunting 80 % is emotional and 20 % is mechanical , and if you try to find out the holy grail on the 20% , good luck .you will waist a lot of your life years
now you need to learn the mechanical part first to be in this business and that where the first problem show up , who is going to be your mentor, where there is hundred of options to choose from and where 95% are sale business man not a real professional traders, they can not make money trading and that where you need to choose from, wow, talking about
a hard way to start a business...now this business is all about prediction of the future,if this dont turn you off keep reading, yes you here me right you try to predict where the price will go in the near future so all you have is probabilities nothing else and no program or computer can tell you where price will do for sure but can give you some probable outcomes that all.
Now my advice for new traders is not to get to close to the action like scalping ,reading the tape, order flow, etc .this area is where the institutional algos are heavily invested and is where your emotional will be tested to your limit, you dont want to be there jet
Is much better to learn Market profile , volume profile and use bigger time frame charts to see where big money has been participate and where you can expect to participate in the future, now this levels of support and resistance are very visual and a lot of traders can see it, you are not the only one so you need to expect some kind a game from the big money to shake some weak hands, so my advice is to trade with micro emini contracts to keep you emotional levels low and be able to stay with the trade
you dont need any fancy tools to trade this way only basic charts.

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  #163 (permalink)
tucson
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Charts , Sceeto andTOS
Broker: AMP-Rithmic
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 24 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 3 given, 34 received


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  #164 (permalink)
Reno, Nevada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ZN, ZB, CL
 
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Posts: 356 since May 2011
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mayazoro View Post

That's a very nice volume profile. Is that Sierra Chart or a 3rd party indicator? Thanks.

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  #165 (permalink)
tucson
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Charts , Sceeto andTOS
Broker: AMP-Rithmic
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 24 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 3 given, 34 received

Sierra Charts

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  #166 (permalink)
New York NY/United States
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS NinjaTrader Jigsaw
Trading: Futures, Options, Stocks
 
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Posts: 43 since Dec 2013
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tonybravo View Post
I have no edge. I don't know what my edge could be. I'm trading blind. Today I lost $50 by over trading and just being wrong

I started with just $1000 near the end of April. I'm down by $280.

I can't seem to get this right. I go long, I'm down 10 ticks. I go short, then the contract moves 10 ticks upwards. Once in a while I'll get lucky and catch a 20 tick move but then it's back to getting it wrong constantly.

I'm trading the mes contracts. 1 at a time.

Should I just withdrawal and go home or do I keep trying to get better?

It just seems that no matter what direction I choose I have it wrong.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app


Yours is a very common situation with beginning retail traders.

A couple of questions to ask yourself:

1) Do I really love trading?
2) Am I willing to put in a ton of hard work to find an edge?

If your answers to either 1 or 2 are no then quit trading and find something that 1) you love, 2) you're good at, and 3) can make decent money.













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  #167 (permalink)
Brisbane Queensland Australia
 
 
Posts: 206 since Aug 2017
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Analytic View Post
Yours is a very common situation with beginning retail traders.

A couple of questions to ask yourself:

1) Do I really love trading?
2) Am I willing to put in a ton of hard work to find an edge?

If your answers to either 1 or 2 are no then quit trading and find something that 1) you love, 2) you're good at, and 3) can make decent money.













Append further


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futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout > I have no "edge" - Should I throw in the towel?


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