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How did you do this week?


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How did you do this week?

  #1 (permalink)
Howard Roark
Oslo Norway
 
Posts: 438 since Aug 2018
Thanks Given: 389
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Hi all,

What a week! I imagine there must be quite a few blown accounts and careers this week. I hope you're not one of them.

If you traded live this week, I'd love to hear your results (specific or vague or not at all if you don't want) and how you experienced trading this week.

Personally, I broke even. Day trading ES futures. I was up around 10 points for the week before Friday's session. Profitable after the 1st 30 minutes. Slightly in the red after 45 minutes and called it a day deciding I should at least be satisfied with a positive week.

Well, still watching the market, I realized we had a pretty good chance of selling back down to the LOD based on a specific trigger I had. Turns out I was right on the general trade idea, but I managed the trade really badly due to the wild swings and ended up overtrading and ending the day down - 10 points.

Overall, I called quite a few of this weeks days main moves fairly well and I find that the overall action was quite technical. Yet, due to a general fear of losing and wild moves, I did not trade/execute so well.

Next week, I may decide to trade the MES instead as I think we should see another wild week.

I also found the week fairly stressing.

So, in brief, a stressful and breakeven week that was a bit too exciting.

What's your story for the week?

Regards,

Howard

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  #3 (permalink)
 
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 AllSeeker 
Mumbai, India
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Some wise person one time told me that "money is only safe when its in your pockets"

I do not like to trade when markets have this kind of abrupt high volatile moves, especially since I usually trade in options sudden rise and drop in premiums can be seen when such a volatility is there. Also, to note here is that I only trade my national index, which also took hit of more than 10%.

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  #4 (permalink)
 
Pariah Carey's Avatar
 Pariah Carey 
Memphis TN
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Probably my best week ever. Just estimating, my account grew by 25% the last few days. The week before was really good too. The important part is that I didn’t increase my risk by much. Now in es futures I did go from 10-point to 20-point stops. Absolutely necessary with the feverish volatility. But since my account had been growing before this week, this was still less than 2% risk. The rest of my portfolio was around 1% risk per trade.

Some highlights just off the top of my head....several $1-$2 wins in mini crude oil, a 1.5 euro win in the 6E, several $10 losses in micro gold (five contracts a trade) but there also was a small win and a $30 win.

Now the ES. ES was where it was at. A bunch of break evens, three 20-point losses, couple 20-point winners, and numerous (4 or 5?) wins in the 30-80 point range. All trades were just one contract. The size of my average winner absolutely crushed my average loss.

Times like this are when you see how asymmetric and non-linear trading really is, which is one reason it is so difficult. You could book six months to a year of profits just in this week.

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  #5 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
who cares
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In this red week the normal trader should have stayed at the sidelines to avoid unnecessary risks.
As I have already seen several weeks as the last one I decided to follow my rules still. Finally I had 3 trades in the week in total for both systems and journals on fio. Fortunately I just had a minus of 17 points - so nothing to talk about.

Instead it lead to a new rule in my first system that is open since 2012 without major rule changes. I put in now a take profit rule under one circumstance which is of course a very rare moment indeed (here a 5% jump in the DAX to EOD of previous day).
With that rule I could have harvested 200 points on the Friday trade which is 20% of my yearly total result. Quite a boost.
At least the week showed that my rules were not bad even under roughest waters which gives a good feeling in the long run.

GFIs1

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  #6 (permalink)
Howard Roark
Oslo Norway
 
Posts: 438 since Aug 2018
Thanks Given: 389
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Pariah Carey View Post
Probably my best week ever. Just estimating, my account grew by 25% the last few days. The week before was really good too. The important part is that I didn’t increase my risk by much. Now in es futures I did go from 10-point to 20-point stops. Absolutely necessary with the feverish volatility. But since my account had been growing before this week, this was still less than 2% risk. The rest of my portfolio was around 1% risk per trade.

Some highlights just off the top of my head....several $1-$2 wins in mini crude oil, a 1.5 euro win in the 6E, several $10 losses in micro gold (five contracts a trade) but there also was a small win and a $30 win.

Now the ES. ES was where it was at. A bunch of break evens, three 20-point losses, couple 20-point winners, and numerous (4 or 5?) wins in the 30-80 point range. All trades were just one contract. The size of my average winner absolutely crushed my average loss.

Times like this are when you see how asymmetric and non-linear trading really is, which is one reason it is so difficult. You could book six months to a year of profits just in this week.

Well done! Congratulations!

If you don't mind, I'd like to ask you a few questions:

1. Is 10 points your normal ES stop for day trading? That seems like a huge stop to me. Using a 20 point stop also seems huge even in this environment.

Did you check your winners and how much adverse movement you had against you on those trades? I.e., would they been winners without such a large stop?

I would have done very well using just a 5 point stop and not moving it. My main mistake was trailing my stop too fast and not being fast enough to enter when I first got a signal.

2. Have you traded such volatile markets in the past?

I'm considering the MES for the coming week.

Howard

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  #7 (permalink)
Howard Roark
Oslo Norway
 
Posts: 438 since Aug 2018
Thanks Given: 389
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If I may add - I feel Friday was the most difficult day of the week as the 'micro' moves and retraces were simply huge - wheras earlier days of the week were a bit more directional.

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  #8 (permalink)
 tiktock 
New York, New York USA
 
Posts: 9 since Feb 2020


Howard Roark View Post
If I may add - I feel Friday was the most difficult day of the week as the 'micro' moves and retraces were simply huge - wheras earlier days of the week were a bit more directional.

I agree. As a rule I try not to trade on Fridays.

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  #9 (permalink)
 
Pariah Carey's Avatar
 Pariah Carey 
Memphis TN
Legendary E-mini dictator for life
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Thinkorswim
Broker: TDAmeritrade
Trading: Futures
Posts: 1,043 since Jan 2014
Thanks Given: 158
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Howard Roark View Post
Well done! Congratulations!

If you don't mind, I'd like to ask you a few questions:

1. Is 10 points your normal ES stop for day trading? That seems like a huge stop to me. Using a 20 point stop also seems huge even in this environment.

Did you check your winners and how much adverse movement you had against you on those trades? I.e., would they been winners without such a large stop?

I would have done very well using just a 5 point stop and not moving it. My main mistake was trailing my stop too fast and not being fast enough to enter when I first got a signal.

2. Have you traded such volatile markets in the past?

I'm considering the MES for the coming week.

Howard

I've gotten into day trading on and off but really I'm a swing trader. My trades will last anywhere from a few hours to two weeks. Usually, 10 points is enough of a stop for me. "Average" ES movement (if such a thing exists) is I guess around 20-25 points a day. If over the last 20 or so days the average gets to be above 40 points from daily high to low, I go to a 20-point stop.

Truthfully I don't like having to use 20-point stops for too long. It just doesn't feel natural for es. But with more volatility comes more opportunity, so I just learn to get used to it.

Adverse movement on winners...I don't know exactly. I don't keep stats on such things. I can remember price going 10-12 points against me on winning trades a few times last week, before reversing.

I traded a lot the week between Christmas and New Years 2018 and that was nuts. I put it all in my journal too and had some 80-100 point scores.

Here's a screenshot from my trading on Thursday, February 27 which I think was the craziest day last week. Overnight, just after midnight in fact, I had a stop hit to flatten me in an es trade. Can't remember if that was win, lose or break even. Just before 7 am (all these are US central standard time) I went short at 3070.25. Less than three hours later my stop was hit at 3030 for a 40-point win. I reentered short at 3040 about an hour later and I took a 20-point loss in 12 minutes. At about 12:30 I took another short at 3070 and won 10 points in less than 30 minutes (again using 20 pt trailing stop).

After that I said no more, people have lost their damn minds. I'd never seen such movement in a day. As such I missed the mammoth selloff the last few hours, which if I'd taken the signal would've netted me 50 or 60 points. But I made up for it with a nice score Thursday night and I stayed flat on Friday and avoided a lot of chop.


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  #10 (permalink)
Howard Roark
Oslo Norway
 
Posts: 438 since Aug 2018
Thanks Given: 389
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Thank you for sharing your experiences this week, Pariah Carey, and good luck for next week's trading!

I wonder if anyone else on futures.io traded the week that was.

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Last Updated on March 5, 2020


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