Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
The story of Richard Dennis and the Turtles is indeed both amazing and uplifting, but it's a little more complex. He taught them a trend-following system that made money when markets were in strong trends, as they were when he came up, but that does not when markets change, as they do.
I think some of the Turtles were successful and remained successful, although many apparently did not. Dennis himself was a legendary trader, but eventually had large losses and stopped trading.
The point is not to knock Dennis or the Turtles, just to not expect to be able to put your trust in systems, even really good ones that are well-matched to the markets, or that at least are for a while. And, of course, you should make hay while the sun shines and get what you can out of them, if you find one.
Edited to change the description of Dennis from "near-legendary" to simply "legendary," as @sloth pointed out that I was understating the case, and I agree. .
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
As someone who once studied philosophy... Understand that to
an imprecise question, there can only be similar answers.
At the highest level, you'd need to consider whether you want to trade
Futures, or whether various Options are more your preference. And
do you want to Day Trade, Swing Trade or "invest" on a longer term?
But whatever you do, don't bounce around from market to market, but
choose 1 market, and 1 approach. That becomes your universe of
study and learning. [edit] Pretend that it's the ONLY thing available,
and ignore anything else. I'm not against "diversification" but this is
just a method which forces you to focus, instead of unproductive "market
hopping".
Say you want to use the ES Futures market, and you want to do Day Trading.
Of course, you could do Swing Trading or Options on Futures... But if you
can just focus... and not be tempted to shift markets, then you'll realize
that the "grass over there is not greener",
but that you need that "focus on tending your grass".
There is no doubt that you MUST "Buy low(er) and Sell high(er)" to
make money; so focus on how that would be possible. And really it
comes down to being able to "predict the future price" of whatever
you are trading... (on the time horizon you have chosen)
So focus on what it would take to predict the future price, of that specific
market you are studying. Therein lies your impetus to become
creative in your efforts to master your predictions.
Trading is always predicting the future of price... Do you have, or can
you build, that "crystal ball"? and what would that mean in terms
of technologies, or knowledge for you to get there?
I don't want to sound too picky but i think trading has more to do with forward planning, developing if-then scenarios based upon your assessment of the likely future price action. This is not prediction.
Where is price going?
How is it likely to act? Why?
Will that provide trade opportunity? What will it look like if my analysis is correct?
What will price look like if I'm wrong? What else could it do?
I was going to say something similar, picking up on the word "prediction."
Probably because we often want to make a distinction from people who do things like offer "predictions" on TV or other media, many of us don't like the word. But aside from that, there's a definite question about whether you need to have an actual projection (or prediction or guess or whatever you are calling it) about the future, vs. having tactics/strategies that help us make good decisions now, with what we have. Of course, there is still some ambiguity here, because if x action tends to work in y situation, is that not in some sense "predictive"?
Still, I do agree with @trendisyourfriend at least in terms of being more more probabilistic, rather than actually predictive (whatever "prediction" is. )
My only point is that there's a lot of ambiguity in the term, due partially to its history, and some of this is actually more semantic than anything else. So I avoid it as a rule, simply for the sake of clarity.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
I appreciate yours and others' comments; and I agree. But you're just making my
point.
When I said "predictive" did anybody think it was not probabilistic ??
My point is only "trivially true"; that when you take a trade, you are
(explicitly or implicitly) making a prediction; otherwise, you're just
trading randomly.
[EDIT] On a related note, I've been working for 2 decades on a "peek forward in
Time Machine" with only limited success !! ha ha
[EDIT2] I've been reading and watching a lot on Quantum Multi-Verse
speculation, and it would be wildly inappropriate for me to even hint at
that concept in this context..... but I would like to contribute a link
to a panel discussion of Quantum uncertainty; because it's the best thing
I've ever seen on the topic, even though the video itself is a bit off-topic
Please don't ding this and call it "spam"; since it is a scientific discussion
of outcomes and futures, and how Quantum theory is so confusing to us ...
I certainly did not use the word "Certainty" so... are we in "violent
agreement" ?? LOL
I saw this trading thread come through my email in-basket so I decided to share my Holy Grail for just 27 minutes of trading order flow back and forth. I am in my mid 70's and cannot do this all day long as I must take breaks. 2021-10-14_Trading order flow for ticks in the ES
Mark Douglas talked extensively in his books about 'probabilities thinking' in trading. I always took a small exception to the verbiage as I felt it might lead traders to believe that they need to be right more often than not. It's semantics - much like your use of the word 'prediction'. We do predict as traders. If I take this trade 100 times I will have more capital than I started with. That's a prediction - not about the impending direction of the market - but about the expectation of the cumulative outcomes of a significant number of trades.
Attempts at predicting the outcome of any given trade or forecasting immediate market behavior (knowing the future) is usually born out the ego's need to avoid loss. The need to be smart. The need to be right. The need to win. (now)
Speaking of Mark Douglas. He probably (that's a prediction) would have (a prediction of the past) enjoyed your video. While I never spoke to him specifically about quantum mechanics - we did speak at length about certain metaphysical principles (as they relate to trading and life in general) that might have been corroborated by or partially explained by quantum physics. Mark died way too young. But, then again - maybe he contributed what had to and moved on.
Returning the conversation to the OP: If you had the holy grail of trading - would you share it? I read thru the majority of the 28 or so pages of posts. I don't believe that I actually saw a definition of 'the holy grail' other than a vague annual return figure with a commensurate drawdown amount.
To me, the 'holy grail' to me is an approach or collective knowledge base that will help a trader achieve their desired outcome.
Is there a poker forum where somebody is posing a similar question? Trading isn't poker but there are some very deep parallels. When you are learning to play poker- you answer some fundamental mathematical questions: What are the odds that I have the best hand? What are the odds that I make a hand better than my opponent with another card? How much will that cost me? What are the pot odds? What are the implied odds?
With basic math skills and some-self discipline a person can be profitable playing poker against most opponents. All you need is math. But, what happens when all players at the table are proficient with these skills? The poker game leaves the left hemisphere of the brain and migrates to the right. It becomes a game of emotional intelligence. There isn't an algorithm in the world that can quantify how afraid or greedy a player is.
Trading is no different. Just as there is no 'holy grail' of poker - one does not exist for trading either. Pure mathematical edges exist but they are thin and fleeting.
This really isn't any different than any other endeavor in life. 25 million Americans play golf every year. One hundred of them net over 1 MM a year. (.00004%) The 'holy grail' of golf, while still evolving, is already in the public domain. There aren't any secrets. Tiger Woods clearly knows things about golf that your weekend golfer does not - BUT - it isn't because he has secrets held in some vault.
So - in my opinion and professional experience: the holy grail to trading already exists - AND - it is already in the public domain - it's just not what they expect.
.
