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Let me ask you a Question ? If you found a gold mine would you put the location on social media . I would share my trading ideas with family and very close friends .
Actually, according to "Reminiscences..." and other sources, he shorted Union Pacific Railroad BEFORE the quake hit. His reason wasn't fundamental. It was an intuition. Even he said he didn't understand his intuition about this one.
I would argue that even if you gave your ideas to your family and very close friends in perfect detail, they would not be able to execute the entries as you do, because the market is subjective and each individual would have a different mental/psychological/emotional disposition as well (for better or worse).
I think that anything suspected to be a potential grail only has potential for grail-greatness until the next trade which would be just another chance for it to fail. :-)
Exactly, just like the turtle traders said (his name is escaping me right now). I could tell people when to buy and sell, and they'd still screw it up.
I guess a lot off people who really think they have the Holy Grail system are picking up pennies and have a long enough successful period for them to believe it's secret stuff. But in trading there is no free lunch. A high winrate comes with a price, they just haven't met their friend the steamroller.
Tad bit related since topic of historically big success came up with shorting markets around major events.
I've a friend who was buying far out of the money monthly puts since Dec 2019 for pennies. He made it big in recent coronavirus hit. If you are asking how big? He has converted INR 7800/- into INR 42,00,000/-, that's more than 500%+ return. He was risking around same amount each month for hero-zero strategy.
Funny thing is he is one of those typical Vegas guys, likes to be on slot machine, likes to buy lotteries. Has no real system, and almost no real knowledge of markets or global economics either. And didn't knew what corona was till government announced lock-down.lol
I can totally see him writing a book in future about "How I turned pennies into million", that is if he inclines to make money from it.
Maybe he would have to since he is having almost no +ve MTM days after the big profit booking, but those are small intraday losses, he is still far away from blowing his newly earned fortune. But I can see him blowing it up and ending worse than he was before making it.
His income source before this was running telegram channle to give arbitrary small SL big tgt calls on index. He still has it with some 35 paid members.
Now the question is, was that holy grail? Was he Livermore of today? Can others copy it?
Since I watched this from sidelines live, I'm very amused thinking if I was the new entrant, I would think he is god and coax him to get his "holy grail" haha. I would even be ready to pay to learn from him.
It really is funny how perspective changes based on your own experience and knowledge. This is why that survivor bias thing mentioned was important on last page.
Today markets have been boring here and coffee has taken over.
Imagine a world that was perfect. Variance did not exist. There were no approximations and risk was nowhere to be found. Such a world would not present any opportunities and would have no enterprise. Such a world would be boring, unchallenging, and would offer no incentives. Such a world would be devoid of humans, and only be inhabited by artificially intelligent robots that appear to be humans.
Fortunately, we live in an imperfect world, that makes us feel perfectly human. It offers opportunities, incentives, and enterprise. It was by design, a world created where uncertainty can never be eliminated. Because, if it was possible to eliminate uncertainties it would be a world devoid of energy and life.
While uncertainties are transcendent, and risk cannot be eliminated, you still have choice. Active or passive, and you can switch back and forth if you wish. You have the ability to choose styles, instruments, and levels of exposure, all the while believing you might be better off handling one type of risk over the other. But returns originate out of risk and not the other way around; and where there is the chance of any returns, there will always be risk
Well
Thank you to all the members for the polite replies
Big Mikes reply was borderline derogartory.
Aurac was sarcastic and questioned my back testing.
Even poor old Sun Trader was polite, but he has to be because I ve got the goods on him.
Tiger writes very well.
hclara has discovered a gold mine and wants to tell his family. Thats the last lot you should tell
It remains that only one member has offered a holy grail (besides me)
Thats nikotron post 84
Disappointing
I can be forgiven because I’m a newbie. Holy grails are just not in my radar. Establishing and implementing good trading habits as well as over overcoming and defeating negative impulses are currently my goal. But I appreciate reading every post. Quite interesting. Thank you.
