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Would you share your Holy Grail?


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Would you share your Holy Grail?

  #41 (permalink)
 trepidation 
San Jose, California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Posts: 139 since Apr 2018
Thanks Given: 25
Thanks Received: 167


Aurac View Post
LtCM



I think that becomes a challenge if your system is too good. If you have a 50:50 win rate with a 1.1 expected ROI, nobody cares. If you have an 80% win rate with a 3.0ROI, suddenly everyone cares and the smaller the frame the less liquidity and that means you can be front run or your opportunity stolen. Has anyone found such a system and shared it? Not to my knowledge. Most systems I see are just existing indicators that they rebrand, a variation of other systems that might have a unique indicator but follows the same methodology, or are highly discretionary and incredibly difficult to replicate and be consistent with. Sooo... it’s an interesting discussion.

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  #42 (permalink)
 gdstuart 
Hammonton NJ
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NT Continuum
Trading: Indexes (Indices?)
Posts: 101 since Nov 2014
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Be glad to post my Holy Grail.

Here's my simple advice: Examine your strengths and weaknesses and learn to fold 'em if your personality doesn't fit the overall investment strategy you're trying to develop.

In my case, I retired in 2014, fully intending to replace my ~$150K salary with futures trading revenues. After studying the markets and various trading methodologies, setting up my home computer as a trading workstation, licensing Ninja Trader and other appropriate tools, joining futures.io (which was invaluable!) and paper-trading in a pretty disciplined manner, I came to realize that my personality was not suited to this craft. After four years of dedicated effort, I have "folded my tent" and now am concentrating on safer investments to continue to build my and my wife's IRA's. Fortunately I had not liquidated any significant amount of our investments, so we've continued to benefit from the recent bull market. It was a big decision but I'm glad to have learned so much, at minimal cost, and my wife is in agreement with my decision.

Six months ago I took a job as Operations Manager with a non-profit at about 20% of my pre-retirement salary, and every day I see how much I am contributing to the well-being of my organization, helping them to deliver in-home mental health services to low-income youths in southern New Jersey.

This may not have been the post you were looking for, but I think it may be advice worth remembering as you pursue this craft. Best of luck to you!

Geoff

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  #43 (permalink)
 trepidation 
San Jose, California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Posts: 139 since Apr 2018
Thanks Given: 25
Thanks Received: 167



SunTrader View Post
Disagree completely.



I think a guru/mentor isn’t necessary, but a good one can can help because they give you a frame to analyze the market. It’s not the holy grail, but a starting point into the cold embrace of the markets. That’s also why I never trust a sim trader because they don’t have the same feelings as a live trader. Hindsight traders or gurus that don’t trade are also sim traders. They’re akin to the talking heads in the news that report what happened and talk from both sides of their mouth. What does drawdown mean to a sim trader? There’s so much information and opinion out there and it can be right or wrong. That’s irrelevant. If you have the wrong understanding, but it consistently makes money... so what? At the end of the day money never lies and if your PnL is consistently growing with a positive expectancy then nothing else matters where you have or don’t have a guru.

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  #44 (permalink)
 
Aurac's Avatar
 Aurac 
London+United Kingdom
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: eSignal
Broker: InteractiveBrokers
Trading: If it moves...
Posts: 50 since Jan 2013
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trepidation View Post
I think that becomes a challenge if your system is too good. If you have a 50:50 win rate with a 1.1 expected ROI, nobody cares. If you have an 80% win rate with a 3.0ROI, suddenly everyone cares and the smaller the frame the less liquidity and that means you can be front run or your opportunity stolen. Has anyone found such a system and shared it? Not to my knowledge. Most systems I see are just existing indicators that they rebrand, a variation of other systems that might have a unique indicator but follows the same methodology, or are highly discretionary and incredibly difficult to replicate and be consistent with. Sooo... it’s an interesting discussion.

I am afraid I disagree with your description of trading systems. As I said in the earlier part of my post, firms like Renaissance Technologies have discovered such systems and run a very tight ship and keep it very secretive. Even to the point that they sue employees who leave to go and work for competitors(Millennium). They also let employees who leave, keep their investments in the fund so that they don't share the information with competitors.
I don't think you have had a comprehensive review of systems if you think that
"Most systems I see are just existing indicators that they rebrand, etc"
I have come across systems that are much more sophisticated than that but require significant investment in education and time to use properly. Most people think trading systems are like learning to use Google. But in fact they are more like learning to play tennis. The racquet might be the same but whether you succeed depends on your ability to use the racquet and the opponent you are playing.

I do agree with you that it's an interesting discussion

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  #45 (permalink)
 trepidation 
San Jose, California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Posts: 139 since Apr 2018
Thanks Given: 25
Thanks Received: 167


Aurac View Post
I am afraid I disagree with your description of trading systems. As I said in the earlier part of my post, firms like Renaissance Technologies have discovered such systems and run a very tight ship and keep it very secretive. Even to the point that they sue employees who leave to go and work for competitors(Millennium). They also let employees who leave, keep their investments in the fund so that they don't share the information with competitors.

I don't think you have had a comprehensive review of systems if you think that

"Most systems I see are just existing indicators that they rebrand, etc"

I have come across systems that are much more sophisticated than that but require significant investment in education and time to use properly. Most people think trading systems are like learning to use Google. But in fact they are more like learning to play tennis. The racquet might be the same but whether you succeed depends on your ability to use the racquet and the opponent you are playing.



I do agree with you that it's an interesting discussion



I should’ve added "retail" in front. I'll need to look up RT systems, but seeing as they're so secretive I'll probably yield nothing.

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  #46 (permalink)
 
Aurac's Avatar
 Aurac 
London+United Kingdom
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: eSignal
Broker: InteractiveBrokers
Trading: If it moves...
Posts: 50 since Jan 2013
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SunTrader View Post
Disagree completely.

That's like saying there's no point in going to medical school to learn to be a surgeon or engineering school to learn to be an engineer.
If you want to learn to be a doctor on you own it's possible but if you go to medical school it will be faster and then after that you can add your own 2 cents to medical knowledge by innovating.
Even a well documented profession like medicine has it's own share of charlatans never mind trading where all you need is enough money to open a brokerage account as your qualification.

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  #47 (permalink)
 
Aurac's Avatar
 Aurac 
London+United Kingdom
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: eSignal
Broker: InteractiveBrokers
Trading: If it moves...
Posts: 50 since Jan 2013
Thanks Given: 90
Thanks Received: 93


gdstuart View Post
Be glad to post my Holy Grail.

Here's my simple advice: Examine your strengths and weaknesses and learn to fold 'em if your personality doesn't fit the overall investment strategy you're trying to develop.

In my case, I retired in 2014, fully intending to replace my ~$150K salary with futures trading revenues. After studying the markets and various trading methodologies, setting up my home computer as a trading workstation, licensing Ninja Trader and other appropriate tools, joining futures.io (which was invaluable!) and paper-trading in a pretty disciplined manner, I came to realize that my personality was not suited to this craft. After four years of dedicated effort, I have "folded my tent" and now am concentrating on safer investments to continue to build my and my wife's IRA's. Fortunately I had not liquidated any significant amount of our investments, so we've continued to benefit from the recent bull market. It was a big decision but I'm glad to have learned so much, at minimal cost, and my wife is in agreement with my decision.

Six months ago I took a job as Operations Manager with a non-profit at about 20% of my pre-retirement salary, and every day I see how much I am contributing to the well-being of my organization, helping them to deliver in-home mental health services to low-income youths in southern New Jersey.

This may not have been the post you were looking for, but I think it may be advice worth remembering as you pursue this craft. Best of luck to you!

Geoff

The full implication of this post is so stupendous that I had no option but to thank you for posting this reply. Unfortunately most persons will read what you have said and moved on without letting it sink in.
Thank you for such a deep and enlightening response.

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  #48 (permalink)
 
Aurac's Avatar
 Aurac 
London+United Kingdom
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: eSignal
Broker: InteractiveBrokers
Trading: If it moves...
Posts: 50 since Jan 2013
Thanks Given: 90
Thanks Received: 93


trepidation View Post
I should’ve added "retail" in front. I'll need to look up RT systems, but seeing as they're so secretive I'll probably yield nothing.

hahaha.....that's right but it's not as bleak as it seems.
With the right paradigm it's possible to come up with suitable systems and with the right amount of perseverance and application you will discover systems that suit you.
Being good at trading is no different than being good at anything else.

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  #49 (permalink)
SunTrader
Boca Raton, FL
 
Posts: 260 since Nov 2018
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Aurac View Post
That's like saying there's no point in going to medical school to learn to be a surgeon or engineering school to learn to be an engineer.
If you want to learn to be a doctor on you own it's possible but if you go to medical school it will be faster and then after that you can add your own 2 cents to medical knowledge by innovating.
Even a well documented profession like medicine has it's own share of charlatans never mind trading where all you need is enough money to open a brokerage account as your qualification.

If you want to become a doctor you, of course, learn from other doctors. Not gurus.

If you want to become a great doctor that comes from within

IMO. Agree or not I've said my piece.

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  #50 (permalink)
 joe s 
sacramento ca us
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader,Trade Station
Trading: es
Posts: 163 since Aug 2015
Thanks Given: 133
Thanks Received: 105


Trader's will never give up the quest for the Holy Grail

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