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I am amazed at how much time is wasted on this topic. Why should you reveal your strategies and systems to the public?
If it's something simple, then everyone who is interested can read a book about it or find out about it via whatever YT, TW, Vimeo or whatever there is and hope that he can do something decent with it.
If it leads to real money, because the product / idea / strategy is unique, which idiot would then probably reveal his work for free behind it times simply in a forum or wherever.
Symple
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
"Why should you reveal your strategies and systems to the public?"
Maybe because you'd like to help other traders ?
"If it leads to real money, because the product / idea / strategy is unique, which idiot would then probably reveal his work for free behind it times simply in a forum or wherever."
Maybe because you'd like to help other traders ?
...and you realize that a dozen traders in the world who do a better
job; is not going to affect your own returns or bottom line in any way...
I think we'd all like to help others; but the problem I see is that the help
needed is likely to be complex. I'd like to help you to fly an F-22 with some
tips and hints... but you'd crash without tons of training.
Legendary / Stochastic Calculus is not your friend
Experience: None
Platform: Ninjatrader, Python API
Broker: CQG
Trading: S&P, Crude, Gold
Posts: 851 since Oct 2009
Thanks Given: 3,422
Thanks Received: 1,537
@Bubba1 excellent trades!...would you mind explaining how you enter and exit your positions please? Your style has me curious, as I've never been a scalper.
Sometimes you guys crack me up....this is one of those times.
It's funny and true as well but also deep.
For a well trained fighter pilot, flying an F-22 is easy.
The same applies to a well trained Neuro-surgeon.
But somehow this doesn't seem to apply to traders.
All you need is some unique product/idea/strategy and you are DONE.
I also thought of the turtles when I read the OP's question. I'm not sure that it was Dennis but one of the market wizards commented that he could publish his system and trading rules in the wall st. journal and wouldn't be concerned because nobody would follow it.
I'm going to take exception to your comment that Dennis was 'near-legendary'. The kid started trading with $500. He was a minor so he had to have his dad stand in the pits at the merc or board of trade and take his trades for him while he arb'd them into the pit. A kid who runs up $500 to over $100MM (when that was close to a billion in today's dollars.) is a legend, period. A 50% DD with his fund doesn't diminish his accomplishments whatsoever in my mind.
Richard Dennis learned a harsh reality. Investors won't sit through drawdowns like that. If you have annual returns of > 100% you are most likely going to have big drawdowns if you are a trend follower. Richard Dennis (and most successful traders) are cut out to stomach the ebb and flow. Most investors are not. They chase returns and are disappointed at the reversion to the mean.
I'm about to enter my fourth decade of active trading. I've started two funds. I've traded accounts for private investors. I've also worked for a few legit prop firms. (not these subscription based deals - I never paid a dime other than desk fees.) My point is that trading other people's money brings a whole new set of challenges. This also relates to the original poster's question:
The holy grail of trading exists. It does. Take the other side of the trades that the masses of speculators are placing. That's it. It's uncomfortable. It also runs counter to every evolutionary / survival impulse that you may have as a human being. This is why 98%+ of traders are unprofitable over a span of over more than a few years. It truly is a game of winner take all.
Back to the holy grail: Reverse engineer your trades. Why do traders (maybe you?) seem to get stopped out or enter at precisely the wrong moment? Who's on the other side of that trade? Why do a majority of traders feel like they're cursed or have bad luck?
Trading continues to be a exercise in self discovery. The PnL continues to tell a story of increasing self-awareness and observation. There is no algorithm or AI to date that can replicate or assimilate this learning.
So, the holy grail exists inside of you. (yes, I know how that sounds.) You will find it by eliminating, overcoming, or discovering each part of you that isn't in alignment. Keep looking.
"Take the other side of the trades that the masses of speculators are placing."
I agree fully, and that's why I work with Volume Analysis (and Risk estimation)
on Micro Trending. What you call "the masses of speculators" are, to me,
just ordinary Retail Traders (and some institutions) who "chase price"
and thus contribute to Market Maker's "aggregate position" against this
Retail population.
It is easily provable through data analysis that this is true; and it can be
summed up by "Retail traders tend to Buy a rising Price, and Sell a
falling Price"; and therein is Market Maker's power to control the
Buy/Sell bias of the Retail trading population; which can, in turn, be
easily estimated, and create a very useful trigger Indicator.
The major issue is that you are, if you think about it, entering your Trades
"counter trend" as you are Selling a Top where MM has too many Retail
Buyers, and wants to turn down; and you are Buying a Bottom where
MM has too many Retail Sellers on the downtrend; and is now motivated
to lift the price.
EVEN ARMED WITH THAT INFORMATION, the markets will NOT make it easy
for you to succeed, and "running past" the natural turning point, is one
way that MM makes it difficult.
In general, I'd say, just be PREDATORY, and not too eager to enter; and to
be able to sustain any temporary Price Adversity which may occur,
as you are waiting for your turn to manifest itself in Price movement.
Make Price come to you; so "Many Bids are made; but Few are
expected to be Filled" should be your attitude.
I always say "Price is The Great Liar" because it is mainly Price that all traders
are watching. Price movements are essentially designed to "tempt"
traders into the Market in the wrong direction, and perhaps "too late"
by Manipulating the Fear Factor, and FOMO ("Fear of Missing Out") with
regard to Breakouts, and Breakdowns.
Retail traders are "Chasers of Price". And Price doesn't Predict future
Price, although certain Patterns of Price action may do so... Try to have
Indicators which are "in addition to Price", such as Volume Analysis;
and then you'll have an Independent Predictor.
I've discussed this elsewhere, and even thrown in some simple code
to estimate this type of action.
Very good observations by everyone; hope my observations help !!
If you go look now, I just changed the description in my post of Dennis from "near" legendary to just "legendary," which he was, as you said. And yes, it was Dennis who said he could publish his system in the WSJ and no one would use it.
The rest of you post is also dead on, and it's also why no one is going to teach or give or sell the Secret to anybody: you have to get it yourself. If someone shows you something that you can latch on to and run with, that is great, and it's why there is a futures.io... because we can all learn, and sometimes there will be that insight that helps someone put it together for themselves, which is what it takes.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
I'm SURE this has been repeated here often. I have been trading futures +40 yrs both as a professional and a retail trader. I have no problem disclosing my Holy Grail. The true issue imho is being able to find a good "dance" partner to engage the market with. The alignment of your "Belief" in your process (not someone else's) and the ability to manage the psychological challenges of consistent execution/plan following are - based on my experience, the keys to long term success.
To succeed YOU must do the work, invest the time, research. Be willing to go down many dead-ends - persist. Trading is not a passive endeavor. You are trading against some of the brightest, elite financial athletes in the World - with more resources than you. You need to understand where you fit in the financial food-chain and you must not do what your retail competition is doing. Trading does not have to be complex. In fact, it can be simple -with a minimum of inputs to your process. What is difficult is the consistent execution of the plan. The only thing that we can anchor in the trading process - is our plan and execution. The outcome of any specific trade is random over a sample size of trades. To get your Positive Expectancy (Assuming you have a Profitable Process) you must anchor the things YOU can control - that is the only way, imho, to see if you can be profitable over a distribution of trades. This should be done with every specific set up that you define for your plan.
Oh, THE HOLY GRAIL - Create a spreadsheet - ERROR COST CALCULATOR and calculate the value of ALL your errors: Trades not taken/Moving stops not according to plan/Bailing/Chasing/ Violating any rules, How you behave after taking a loss/losses or wins etc. All of these can trigger subliminal responses. Put down the error type, what triggered it and the amount it cost you. You will see patterns emerge. Find out what the psychological impediments are and what you pay for them.
If you are like other traders I have suggested this to over the years, you might find what they did. They had the profits in hand and were just giving them away. Figure out the Cost $ and you find the secret. Emotional management is typically the last area traders engage with since the focus is typically charts/set ups - the next secret sauce. If you do the work and analyze where your emotional state is sabotaging your potential, you will be way ahead of the competition. The psychological aspects of trading are "the last frontier."
We are wired emotionally, psychologically for behaviors that are absolutely contrary to successful trading. When these emotional states are triggered during trading - conscious intent can go out the window - a primal reaction has been triggered. In that moment, you are not in control. Chemicals are surging in your brain - your primal wiring is activated (Fight or flight, etc.). We focus on trade management but you also need a tool to help manage your emotional states that are triggered in the normal course of trading.
This Holy Grail will light your path and help you take control of your outcome and offer you the best chance for success. Good Luck. It truly is in YOUR hands..
Regards,
Tom
Trading Is A Journey of Self-Discovery, Not A Destination.
Other than your remarks on Psychology as a primary gating factor; I
don't see how your comments describe a Plan for success.
I personally have everything stacked in my favor; and have no excuse
for "trading small" but, nevertheless, I do trade too small and too
Conservatively; so it is indeed a Psychological battle to break from an
"old habit" to the "new frontier" where I need to be...
Do as I SAY; don't do as I DO -- since what I am currently doing is
irrational, and overly defensive; so it is a personal Psychological
barrier.
Trading from excessive Defense, meaning Stopping out too soon, etc.
is really a Trader's worst enemy...
The topic is "The Holy Grail." It does not say "plan." That plan will be specific to "you." That is the point of the "Error Cost Calculator." It is a way to analyze you, your tendencies, your triggers, your obstacles, etc. You can't fix when you don't know what is broke or why. And you cannot contain these self-defeating behaviors until you can isolate them. The plan to remediate is up to you and what you find out about yourself. In the end you have to do the work. Anyone who has longevity in this business has walked this road. Where your journey takes you is up to you. Good luck.
Regards,
Tom
Trading Is A Journey of Self-Discovery, Not A Destination.
