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Would you share your Holy Grail?


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Would you share your Holy Grail?

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  #101 (permalink)
Boksburg, South Africa
 
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RDK91 View Post
If it where a holy grail everyone learning it would be millionaire in no time.

There is no such thing as a holy grail.

Hi RDK91
What does your name stand for??
Sounds like a bottle of wine
How do you know there is no Holy Grail ?
If you send $1 million to a charity of my choice , I will disclose the Holy Grail
regards
bobc

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  #102 (permalink)
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If one did share their Holy Grail, it would cease to be the Holy Grail!

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  #103 (permalink)
Antwerp
 
 
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bobc View Post
Hi RDK91
What does your name stand for??
Sounds like a bottle of wine
How do you know there is no Holy Grail ?
If you send $1 million to a charity of my choice , I will disclose the Holy Grail
regards
bobc

Of course i am not sure there is no one with a "holy grail" out there, however i am doubtful.

I would see a trading system as a holy grail if i can trade and repeat it indefinitely without making errors.
That is exactly the part where the issues is: no errors. Both humans and machines (algo's) will make errors every now and then, humans many many more than machines.

One thing i do know for sure, if there would be such a thing as a holy grail, no one would be selling/teaching it.

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  #104 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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A while back I listened to a series of podcasts called chatwithtraders.com

In one of the first interviews the host was interviewing a fellow from South Africa.

"Of course, don't ask me about my secret sauce. I won't tell you."

I was thinking - well duh, of course not.

There was a brief silent pause where you could sense the host was put off by the reply.

(Clearly the host was new to trading to take umbrage at such an obvious statement.)

------another example -------
reputedly the most successful algorithmic hedge fund of all time, Renaissance Technologies, head, Jim Simmons, said "I can't tell you about our methods they are even more secret than my work at the CIA" (where he was a top secret code-breaker for the US govt)


Let me rephrase your question:

"If you knew of a way to generate $100 billion in 30 years and you knew that by sharing it, it would become worthless to both you and others after a very short period, would you blab about and ruin the fortunes of all those who worked over the years to build it?"

Answer: Yes if you were a blankey-blank idiot, but then if you were that stupid you probably wouldn't have been able to built it.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies
Medallion, the main fund which is closed to outside investors, has earned over $100 billion in trading profits since its inception in 1988. This translates to a 66.1% gross return or a 39.1% average net return between 1988 - 2018.[28]

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  #105 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
If one did share their Holy Grail, it would cease to be the Holy Grail!

Hi Tiger,
Hows your golf?
What is the Holy Grail of getting to heaven?
Quick answer......... doing good.
Who knows this?
Everybody
And its still the Holy Grail
regards
bobc

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  #106 (permalink)
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  #107 (permalink)
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jmont1 View Post
@thoughtful, Sounds like you would share your not holy grail. May I request you expand on the technique you use? Would also be nice if you would share those improved indicators. Thanks in advance.

Yeah, I can share some info, most of what I like is stuff everyone has heard of, although with some more important details. IDK if I should post in this topic, because it's off-topic I guess. So, maybe I should start a new topic asking what everyones' favorite techniques are? If you want to start a new topic about this first, I'll post in there.

I spent alot of time researching how to trade, so I wouldn't mind helping others save alot of time & aggravation like I had to go through. Because life is pretty short! I found VERY little helpful into on the internet, SOME yes, but most of what I found is substandard at best.

I would be happy to share my improved public indicators code too, but I don't really like them myself so I wouldn't recommend people use them LOL. However I am thinking about writing an article about what I think about some public indicators, and I'll try to explain how they work in the article, and why not to use the bad ones, and how best to use the okay ones if one wished to do so. I haven't had time to do this yet, but hopefully I'll get around to this someday soonish.

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  #108 (permalink)
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RDK91 View Post
Of course i am not sure there is no one with a "holy grail" out there, however i am doubtful.

I would see a trading system as a holy grail if i can trade and repeat it indefinitely without making errors.
That is exactly the part where the issues is: no errors. Both humans and machines (algo's) will make errors every now and then, humans many many more than machines.

One thing i do know for sure, if there would be such a thing as a holy grail, no one would be selling/teaching it.

Hi RDK91
You are correct and your definition of the Holy Grail is good
Anyone else selling Holy Grails should make sure they meet RDK91''s requirement
bobc

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  #109 (permalink)
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I have scanned through most of the replies to this thread and there are some replies I agree with and others I donít.
Let me briefly add my perspective. I am going to be cryptic on purpose as there is no way I would divulge my holy grail - ever. But I will try and assist in changing your thinking so you might be able to reach the (your?) holy grail.

First off, yes there absolutely is a holy grail in trading, however the holy grail consists of a number of components and these all need to fit together and work seemlessly. There are 3 parts that make up the holy grail - a system or methodology, mental fortitude and adequate capitalization for whatever your system or methodology requires. Some more detail regarding these is important.

1) The system/methodology

My opinion of a holy grail system is one that can be traded either as a scalping system or swing system, can be traded in any market and can be traded on any time frame or price frame. Will you find this type of system being offered by any guru, vendor or anyone else who peddles systems? The simple answer is NO. Does something like this exist - YES. Would anyone who has a system like this sell it or share it..NEVER. If you want a system such as this, you need to develop it yourself. If you think you can use any of the canned indicators that come with every trading platform, youíre wrong. You have to think outside the box, at techniques that exist in other vocations and nature, and adapt those to trading. I will give you some small hints of how I, after 15 years of being a failed but extremely determined trader (Iím a dogmatic Taurus and the word failure does not exist in my vocabulary) changed my way of thinking and thought about doing things differently.

If we think about markets, they usually exist in primarily 2 states - a relaxed laidback state and a psychotic state. The relaxed state is when the market is just trading backwards and forwards, no emotional hype driving it. The psychotic state is usually around news events or after something that has resulted in the market behaving like an unbroken stallion, bucking and heaving all over the place until eventually the stallion realizes heís not winning the dual and starts behaving
ďnormallyď. The normal in the market, after the psychotic episode is when a trend is underway and becomes quite predictable. Usually the psychotic episode kicks the market into a trend.
So in order to find a system or methodology that works in all these conditions, you have to account for its personality first. My suggestion is look at 3 concepts from physics or nature - velocity, acceleration and adaptability. You should try and code indicators that encompass these qualities and will allow you to identify what state the market is in. When the market is relaxed, the velocity and acceleration will be low (acceleration is actually zero at this time) but when it becomes psychotic, the velocity and acceleration pick up and you can trade the change accordingly. When the market is accelerating, you should be trading that side of the market until the velocity and acceleration tell you itís changing.
Now onto adaptability. Adaptability aspect should tell you in which direction you should be trading, and whether you are in a strong trend ( which your velocity/accelerator indicator/s will confirm) When the market is relaxed, you need your indicator to reflect that, but when the market becomes rowdy and eventually hits a trend, the indicator needs to rapidly adapt to these changes. There are a multitude of adaptive indicators on the market - find the one/s that will give you this information, do some small modifications to make it your own, and you will have something that will never break and will be tradeable anywhere and everywhere!

2) After finding your edge with the correct tool you have developed, they mean nothing unless you have psychological fortitude and are able to control your mind. This is THE most important aspect of anything related to trading as it is your emotions against the worlds emotions. All markets are simply the worlds emotions on display and at play. As with anything in life, HUMANS DO NOT FUNCTION WELL UNDER STRESS (not shouting I really want this point to sink in as the 95% of all traders never appreciate this point and how important it is and continue to lose). I can tell you my 15 years of failure in trading wrought some significant psychological damage, just like it does to every single trader on the planet, but you have to realize that if you do not get control of this, you will not only never reach your holy grail, but you will forever be a failing/failed trader. Mark Douglas, The Disciplined Trader is a phenomenal book to get on the right path to overcoming psychological damage/hangups. The way I found works best for me now is to algorithmic trade, where I do not have to make any decisions in the heat of battle, I simply let the methodology/system do itís thing. Even today, I sometimes feel I want to do some discretionary trading and even though I know all the pitfalls, I still get swept away sometimes and do stupid, head smacking things that when the trade is closed, I till say to myself, ĒI cannot believe you fell for thatĒ. For example, you have your order waiting to be executed, the market gets close to your order and then suddenly darts quickly away. You think, oh no, its not coming back here so you start chasing it to either get into or out of a position, and when executed, see the market a while later go exactly back to where your original order was sitting. When Iím algorithmic trading, none of this ever occurs as Iím not making decisions based on emotion. Emotions are one of the most important qualities we have as humans and you need to be 100 percent in control of them in the market, not 80 or 90 %, the full 100 %, and if you cannot, then trade algorithmically.

3) Adequate capitalization - This is a very simple point - told by many traders, often. If you are trading on the sniff of an oil rag, you have no chance of making it and it is from this, that most of the psychological damage occurs. You are too scared to lose money and so you trade like a dick. You donĎt have rational stops, you use a simple money stop. You do not take into account leverage adequately so trade out of your comfort zone. There is a load that one could discuss regarding this but this was supposed to be a brief post but seems to have become really extended. Bottom line is if you do not have an adequately funded account, donít trade until you are able to get more cash together, or today one can actually trade micro contracts. Trade these micros, they can certainly help. Losing $50 in a trade rather than $500, in a small account is in itself, huge!

Hope some of these hit home and make you rethink various aspects of trading. But I am certainly, strongly on side for the existance of the holy grail.

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  #110 (permalink)
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No - of course no holly grail. Is just a good trading system and psychological training.

https://gyazo.com/a80cf9e00d596d03c9a01195236f6ec6

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  #111 (permalink)
Antwerp
 
 
Posts: 454 since Jun 2016


TraderDoc007 View Post
I have scanned through most of the replies to this thread and there are some replies I agree with and others I don’t.
Let me briefly add my perspective. I am going to be cryptic on purpose as there is no way I would divulge my holy grail - ever. But I will try and assist in changing your thinking so you might be able to reach the (your?) holy grail.

First off, yes there absolutely is a holy grail in trading, however the holy grail consists of a number of components and these all need to fit together and work seemlessly. There are 3 parts that make up the holy grail - a system or methodology, mental fortitude and adequate capitalization for whatever your system or methodology requires. Some more detail regarding these is important.

1) The system/methodology

My opinion of a holy grail system is one that can be traded either as a scalping system or swing system, can be traded in any market and can be traded on any time frame or price frame. Will you find this type of system being offered by any guru, vendor or anyone else who peddles systems? The simple answer is NO. Does something like this exist - YES. Would anyone who has a system like this sell it or share it..NEVER. If you want to a system such as this, you need to develop it yourself. If you think you can use any of the canned indicators that come with every trading platform, you’re wrong. You have to think outside the box, at techniques that exist in other vocations and nature, and adapt those to trading. I will give you some small hints of how I, after 15 years of being a failed but extremely determined trader (I’m a dogmatic Taurus and the word failure does not exist in my vocabulary) changed my way of thinking and thought about doing things differently.

If we think about markets, they usually exist in primarily 2 states - a relaxed laidback state and a psychotic state. The relaxed state is when the market is just trading backwards and forwards, no emotional hype driving it. The psychotic state is usually around news events or after something that has resulted in the market behaving like an unbroken stallion, bucking and heaving all over the place until eventually the stallion realizes he’s not winning the dual and starts behaving
“normally“. The normal in the market, after the psychotic episode is when a trend is underway and becomes quite predictable. Usually the psychotic episode kicks the market into a trend.
So in order to find a system or methodology that works in all these conditions, you have to account for its personality first. My suggestion is look at 3 concepts from physics or nature - velocity, acceleration and adaptability. You should try and code indicators that encompass these qualities and will allow you to identify what state the market is in. When the market is relaxed, the velocity and acceleration will be low (acceleration is actually zero at this time) but when it becomes psychotic, the velocity and acceleration pick up and you can trade the change accordingly. When the market is accelerating, you should be trading that side of the market until the velocity and acceleration tell you it’s changing.
Now onto adaptability. Adaptability aspect should tell you in which direction you should be trading, and whether you are in a strong trend ( which your velocity/accelerator indicator/s will confirm) When the market is relaxed, you need your indicator to reflect that, but when the market becomes rowdy and eventually hits a trend, the indicator needs to rapidly adapt to these changes. There are a multitude of adaptive indicators on the market - find the one/s that will give you this information, do some small modifications to make it your own, and you will have something that will never break and will be tradeable anywhere and everywhere!

2) After finding your edge with the correct tool you have developed, they mean nothing unless you have psychological fortitude and are able to control your mind. This is THE most important aspect of anything related to trading as it is your emotions against the worlds emotions. All markets are simply the worlds emotions on display and at play. As with anything in life, HUMANS DO NOT FUNCTION WELL UNDER STRESS (not shouting I really want this point to sink in as the 95% of all traders never appreciate this point and how important it is and continue to lose). I can tell you my 15 years of failure in trading wrought some significant psychological damage, just like it does to every single trader on the planet, but you have to realize that if you do not get control of this, you will not only never reach your holy grail, but you will forever be a failing/failed trader. Mark Douglas, The Disciplined Trader is a phenomenal book to get on the right path to overcoming psychological damage/hangups. The way I found works best for me now is to algorithmic trade, where I do not have to make any decisions in the heat of battle, I simply let the methodology/system do it’s thing. Even today, I sometimes feel I want to do some discretionary trading and even though I know all the pitfalls, I still get swept away sometimes and do stupid, head smacking things that when the trade is closed, I till say to myself, ”I cannot believe you fell for that”. For example, you have your order waiting to be executed, the market gets close to your order and then suddenly darts quickly away. You think, oh no, its not coming back here so you start chasing it to either get into or out of a position, and when executed, see the market a while later go exactly back to where your original order was sitting. When I’m algorithmic trading, none of this ever occurs as I’m not making decisions based on emotion. Emotions are one of the most important qualities we have as humans and you need to be 100 percent in control of them in the market, not 80 or 90 %, the full 100 %, and if you cannot, them trade algorithmically.

3) Adequate capitalization - This is a very simple point - told by many traders, often. If you are trading on the sniff of an oil rag, you have no chance of making it and it is from this, that most of the psychological damage occurs. You are too scared to lose money and so you trade like a dick. You don‘t have rational stops, you use a simple money stop. You do not take into account leverage adequately so trade out of your comfort zone. There is a load that one could discuss regarding this but this was supposed to be a brief post but seems to have become really extended. Bottom line is if you do not have an adequately funded account, don’t trade until you are able to get more cash together, or today one can actually trade micro contracts. Trade these micros, they can certainly help. Losing $50 in a trade rather than $500, in a small account is in itself, huge!

Hope some of these hit home and make you rethink various aspects of trading. But I am certainly, strongly on side for the existance of the holy grail.

There is no such thing as one system that works on every asset. Every asset trades different and needs different ways of trading.

Dreaming of making constant money from all markets is nothing but a retail traders dream, an unrealistic one that is.

There is not one professional trader out there that trades all markets. Definitely not active. Professional traders trade one or 2 different asset classes or a basket of stocks. There is no way to actively monitor the entire market.

Even for algorithms that is nearly impossible, algo firms have maybe a dozen different algos at work at once with millions in maintenance costs every year.

Retailers cannot compete with that, not on the long run. Best is to keep things simple and to focus on an instrument or 2.

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  #112 (permalink)
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RDK91 View Post
There is no such thing as one system that works on every asset. Every asset trades different and needs different ways of trading.

Dreaming of making constant money from all markets is nothing but a retail traders dream, an unrealistic one that is.

There is not one professional trader out there that trades all markets. Definitely not active. Professional traders trade one or 2 different asset classes or a basket of stocks. There is no way to actively monitor the entire market.

Even for algorithms that is nearly impossible, algo firms have maybe a dozen different algos at work at once with millions in maintenance costs every year.

Retailers cannot compete with that, not on the long run. Best is to keep things simple and to focus on an instrument or 2.

Sir, your opinion is totally wrong. Instead of quoting all the tired, well accepted BS that is currently available on the internet, read what I have said, and try to change your mind into what is possible rather than what you have been told by all these big great institutional traders and gurus who couldnít actually trade themselves out of a paper bag if they had to. So what you state is absolutely untrue and false. I couldnít really care which so called professional traders have said that all markets cannot be traded with one algorithm...Iím telling you, yes they can. The same tools for each different market is totally possible...read what I said...adaptive...adaptive...adaptive tools. Instead of just trying to find faults in what Iíve said, maybe think like 0.1% of successful traders do, and you will see that, not only is it possible, but probable.
Your thinking is like the 95% of traders who lose (remember I was in that category for many years) until I found a way to go totally against everything you ever read, are told and indoctrinated with.
If you choose to read everything I wrote through a lens of criticism rather than education, your loss. I have been on futures.io for years and I usually donít have much time to read and contribute, but this topic piqued my interest and I thought I would break all the commonly held crap from all sources, that simply are not true. Institutional traders and funds with billions mean nothing in my world because I am beating them every day, all day, and in any market I choose to trade. Stop being scared into and limited by what ever you read or have been told. It simply isnít true!!!

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  #113 (permalink)
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TraderDoc007 View Post
Sir, your opinion is totally wrong. Instead of quoting all the tired, well accepted BS that is currently available on the internet, read what I have said, and try to change your mind into what is possible rather than what you have been told by all these big great institutional traders and gurus who couldnít actually trade themselves out of a paper bag if they had to. So what you state is absolutely untrue and false. I couldnít really care which so called professional traders have said that all markets cannot be traded with one algorithm...Iím telling you, yes they can. The same tools for each different market is totally possible...read what I said...adaptive...adaptive...adaptive tools. Instead of just trying to find faults in what Iíve said, maybe think like 0.1% of successful traders do, and you will see that, not only is it possible, but probable.
Your thinking is like the 95% of traders who lose (remember I was in that category for many years) until I found a way to go totally against everything you ever read, are told and indoctrinated with.
If you choose to read everything I wrote through a lens of criticism rather than education, your loss. I have been on futures.io for years and I usually donít have much time to read and contribute, but this topic piqued my interest and I thought I would break all the commonly held crap from all sources, that simply are not true. Institutional traders and funds with billions mean nothing in my world because I am beating them every day, all day, and in any market I choose to trade. Stop being scared into and limited by what ever you read or have been told. It simply isnít true!!!

I do agree with TraderDoc007. You can tell he is speaking from the depths of experience and not theoretical intellectualism.
There is a Holy Grail but your one mindedness is limiting your perception. The Holly Grail is a combination of a trading strategies, personal psychology and the market. It takes time to develop it, just like it takes time to be a good surgeon, engineer, etc.
It is also a never ending quest because you keep finding optimal ways to deploy it but in an evolutionary way. Not everyone is going to stay the course but if you haven't found it yet it doesn't mean it doesn't exist, after all it'a quest.
I don't really think you could give it away because it is yours and it belongs to you. Even when Richard Dennis gave his system away to the turtles not all of them were successful. I think he was being very generous but he also knew that only the few that could embrace his psychology could make it work and even if they did as it became better understood it's edge eroded.
I am with Jim Simons on this. History has not been kind to trading strategies that have been made public and it is not a coincidence that the most successful hedge fund of all time is also the most secretive. Finally before I get push back about the difference between institutional or retail, it's only one of scale. The principles are the same in that you need to find trading signals with +ve expected value but the big difference is in the detail. Personally I think there's lots of trading signals with +ve expected value but the edges change over time. Secondly finding something that works for you is hard work. I cannot emphasis this enough. I am talking Bill Gates/Steve Jobs type work ethic. You are not going to make a living out of the market by treating it in a cavalier fashion. For all of those here on the quest keep working hard on it and it will come, don't know when don't know where but it will come on some sunny day
Finally some quotes to encourage those searching.

Richard Dennis:
I always say that you could publish trading rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline. Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80 percent as good as what we taught people. What they couldnít do is give them the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad.

Charles Faulkner
People need to have a perceptual filter that matches the way they think.
The appropriate perceptual filter for a trader has more to do with how well it fits a trader's mental strategy,
his mode of thinking and decision making, than how well it accounts for market activity.
When a person gets to know any perceptual filter deeply, it helps develop his or her intuition.
There's no substitute for experience.

The people that I know who are the most successful at trading are passionate about it.*
They fulfill what I think is the first requirement: developing intuitions about something they*care about deeply, in this case, trading...
They develop a deep knowledge of whatever*form of analysis they use.
Out of that passion and knowledge, their trading ideas, insights,*and intuitions emerge

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  #114 (permalink)
Antwerp
 
 
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TraderDoc007 View Post
Sir, your opinion is totally wrong. Instead of quoting all the tired, well accepted BS that is currently available on the internet, read what I have said, and try to change your mind into what is possible rather than what you have been told by all these big great institutional traders and gurus who couldnít actually trade themselves out of a paper bag if they had to. So what you state is absolutely untrue and false. I couldnít really care which so called professional traders have said that all markets cannot be traded with one algorithm...Iím telling you, yes they can. The same tools for each different market is totally possible...read what I said...adaptive...adaptive...adaptive tools. Instead of just trying to find faults in what Iíve said, maybe think like 0.1% of successful traders do, and you will see that, not only is it possible, but probable.
Your thinking is like the 95% of traders who lose (remember I was in that category for many years) until I found a way to go totally against everything you ever read, are told and indoctrinated with.
If you choose to read everything I wrote through a lens of criticism rather than education, your loss. I have been on futures.io for years and I usually donít have much time to read and contribute, but this topic piqued my interest and I thought I would break all the commonly held crap from all sources, that simply are not true. Institutional traders and funds with billions mean nothing in my world because I am beating them every day, all day, and in any market I choose to trade. Stop being scared into and limited by what ever you read or have been told. It simply isnít true!!!

The fact that you see your opinion as the only truth is all i need to know ...

You might think my thinking is like 95% of the traders who lose, luckily i know for a fact that i am not one of them. In fact, i would be thinking like 95% of the traders who lose IF i where to accept your testimony here as the one and only truth with 0 evidence to back it up.

I know several math geniuses myself who work and used to work as coders for large firms who mainly trade through complex and self learning algorithms. My reply is based on what they told me after i mailed them your post. They are not some so called gurus or YouTube fakes milking noobs.

So, if you have created one algorithm that can trade all markets profitable, good on you. You are probably the only person to have done so and you should be a billionaire in no time. In fact, shouldn't you already be one?

A profitable system or algorithm isn't the same as a holy grail ...

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  #115 (permalink)
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The fact that you see your opinion as the only truth is all i need to know ...

You might think my thinking is like 95% of the traders who lose, luckily i know for a fact that i am not one of them. In fact, i would be thinking like 95% of the traders who lose IF i where to accept your testimony here as the one and only truth with 0 evidence to back it up.

I know several math geniuses myself who work and used to work as coders for large firms who mainly trade through complex algorithms. My reply is based on what they told me after i mailed them your post. They are not some so called gurus or YouTube fakes milking noobs.

So, if you have created one algorithm that can trade all markets profitable, good on you. You are probably the only person to have done so and you should be a billionaire in no time. In fact, shouldn't you already be one?

A profitable system or algorithm isn't the same as a holy grail ...

You seem to be very intimidated or in awe of titles and individuals who tell you what is possible and limit your potential. You believe these ďmath geniuses who work and used to work as coders for large firms who mainly trade through complex algorithmsĒ. Interestingly enough my algorithm is extremely simple and not based on complex algorithms so that might just be where all retail traders should look. All I can say is open your mind and stop trying to find fault with every individual who might try and lead you to the holy grail!

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You seem to be very intimidated or in awe of titles and individuals who tell you what is possible and limit your potential. You believe these ďmath geniuses who work and used to work as coders for large firms who mainly trade through complex algorithmsĒ. Interestingly enough my algorithm is extremely simple and not based on complex algorithms so that might just be where all retail traders should look. All I can say is open your mind and stop trying to find fault with every individual who might try and lead you to the holy grail!

You do realize you are "just one of those gurus who couldnít actually trade themselves out of a paper bag if they had to" as long as you don't post any proof, right?

The fact that you claim to have created a holy grail that isn't even complex coding and is beating the biggest geniuses on the planet spending millions and millions a year to just keep their algorithms running is just to funny.

You might think that i am intimidated by those guy's that i know personally, but you are doing nothing different: "telling me what is possible". The only difference is is that there is plenty of information available for everyone to read on the biggest financial institutions of the world and their running costs, employees, returns, ... Plenty of information about how things are done in the industry. There is nothing about you anywhere and yet you are the one who beat them all.

Yeah right.

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The fact that you see your opinion as the only truth is all i need to know ...

That is what I noticed right away as well.

You have your opinion. They have theirs. Only you are not trying to impose yours on someone else - who seems to have a superiority complex of some sort.

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RDK91 View Post
You do realize you are "just one of those gurus who couldnít actually trade themselves out of a paper bag if they had to" as long as you don't post any proof, right?

The fact that you claim to have created a holy grail that isn't even complex coding and is beating the biggest geniuses on the planet spending millions and millions a year to just keep their algorithms running is just to funny.

You might think that i am intimidated by those guy's that i know personally, but you are doing nothing different: "telling me what is possible". The only difference is is that there is plenty of information available for everyone to read on the biggest financial institutions of the world and their running costs, employees, returns, ... Plenty of information about how things are done in the industry. There is nothing about you anywhere and yet you are the one who beat them all.

Yeah right.

Once again, take your blinders off and stop telling me all the crap youíve read on the internet and what people have told you. It is all totally irrelevant. The only costs I pay are my electricity costs, brokers fees and exchange fees. That in and of itself is a huge edge that these large know it all math geniuses that you know and large institutions cannot compete with. I know how annoyed you must be feeling because you believe all the hype you read and are told, so when someone else breaks that bubble and tells you differently, you simply go into defensive mode. I will say for the 3rd time, open your mind and think laterally and donít keep on quoting all those who you believe are so much better and who have deep pockets. You might just stumble onto something really big.
As for proof - sure Iíll show you. I will even go so far as to show you proof in whichever market you want. Let me know which markets you want proof in!

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That is what I noticed right away as well.

You have your opinion. They have theirs. Only you are not trying to impose yours on someone else - who seems to have a superiority complex of some sort.

Exactly.

And so i am going to end my participation in this discussion, since it is probably even more useless than searching a holy grail, with this:

@TraderDoc007

You are just the same as what you are accusing all those internet gurus of. Full of hot air.

Unless you post any for of evidence your entire rant is worthless.

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  #120 (permalink)
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I have scanned through most of the replies to this thread and there are some replies I agree with and others I donít.
Let me briefly add my perspective. I am going to be cryptic on purpose as there is no way I would divulge my holy grail - ever. But I will try and assist in changing your thinking so you might be able to reach the (your?) holy grail.

First off, yes there absolutely is a holy grail in trading, however the holy grail consists of a number of components and these all need to fit together and work seemlessly. There are 3 parts that make up the holy grail - a system or methodology, mental fortitude and adequate capitalization for whatever your system or methodology requires. Some more detail regarding these is important.

1) The system/methodology

My opinion of a holy grail system is one that can be traded either as a scalping system or swing system, can be traded in any market and can be traded on any time frame or price frame. Will you find this type of system being offered by any guru, vendor or anyone else who peddles systems? The simple answer is NO. Does something like this exist - YES. Would anyone who has a system like this sell it or share it..NEVER. If you want a system such as this, you need to develop it yourself. If you think you can use any of the canned indicators that come with every trading platform, youíre wrong. You have to think outside the box, at techniques that exist in other vocations and nature, and adapt those to trading. I will give you some small hints of how I, after 15 years of being a failed but extremely determined trader (Iím a dogmatic Taurus and the word failure does not exist in my vocabulary) changed my way of thinking and thought about doing things differently.

If we think about markets, they usually exist in primarily 2 states - a relaxed laidback state and a psychotic state. The relaxed state is when the market is just trading backwards and forwards, no emotional hype driving it. The psychotic state is usually around news events or after something that has resulted in the market behaving like an unbroken stallion, bucking and heaving all over the place until eventually the stallion realizes heís not winning the dual and starts behaving
ďnormallyď. The normal in the market, after the psychotic episode is when a trend is underway and becomes quite predictable. Usually the psychotic episode kicks the market into a trend.
So in order to find a system or methodology that works in all these conditions, you have to account for its personality first. My suggestion is look at 3 concepts from physics or nature - velocity, acceleration and adaptability. You should try and code indicators that encompass these qualities and will allow you to identify what state the market is in. When the market is relaxed, the velocity and acceleration will be low (acceleration is actually zero at this time) but when it becomes psychotic, the velocity and acceleration pick up and you can trade the change accordingly. When the market is accelerating, you should be trading that side of the market until the velocity and acceleration tell you itís changing.
Now onto adaptability. Adaptability aspect should tell you in which direction you should be trading, and whether you are in a strong trend ( which your velocity/accelerator indicator/s will confirm) When the market is relaxed, you need your indicator to reflect that, but when the market becomes rowdy and eventually hits a trend, the indicator needs to rapidly adapt to these changes. There are a multitude of adaptive indicators on the market - find the one/s that will give you this information, do some small modifications to make it your own, and you will have something that will never break and will be tradeable anywhere and everywhere!

2) After finding your edge with the correct tool you have developed, they mean nothing unless you have psychological fortitude and are able to control your mind. This is THE most important aspect of anything related to trading as it is your emotions against the worlds emotions. All markets are simply the worlds emotions on display and at play. As with anything in life, HUMANS DO NOT FUNCTION WELL UNDER STRESS (not shouting I really want this point to sink in as the 95% of all traders never appreciate this point and how important it is and continue to lose). I can tell you my 15 years of failure in trading wrought some significant psychological damage, just like it does to every single trader on the planet, but you have to realize that if you do not get control of this, you will not only never reach your holy grail, but you will forever be a failing/failed trader. Mark Douglas, The Disciplined Trader is a phenomenal book to get on the right path to overcoming psychological damage/hangups. The way I found works best for me now is to algorithmic trade, where I do not have to make any decisions in the heat of battle, I simply let the methodology/system do itís thing. Even today, I sometimes feel I want to do some discretionary trading and even though I know all the pitfalls, I still get swept away sometimes and do stupid, head smacking things that when the trade is closed, I till say to myself, ĒI cannot believe you fell for thatĒ. For example, you have your order waiting to be executed, the market gets close to your order and then suddenly darts quickly away. You think, oh no, its not coming back here so you start chasing it to either get into or out of a position, and when executed, see the market a while later go exactly back to where your original order was sitting. When Iím algorithmic trading, none of this ever occurs as Iím not making decisions based on emotion. Emotions are one of the most important qualities we have as humans and you need to be 100 percent in control of them in the market, not 80 or 90 %, the full 100 %, and if you cannot, then trade algorithmically.

3) Adequate capitalization - This is a very simple point - told by many traders, often. If you are trading on the sniff of an oil rag, you have no chance of making it and it is from this, that most of the psychological damage occurs. You are too scared to lose money and so you trade like a dick. You donĎt have rational stops, you use a simple money stop. You do not take into account leverage adequately so trade out of your comfort zone. There is a load that one could discuss regarding this but this was supposed to be a brief post but seems to have become really extended. Bottom line is if you do not have an adequately funded account, donít trade until you are able to get more cash together, or today one can actually trade micro contracts. Trade these micros, they can certainly help. Losing $50 in a trade rather than $500, in a small account is in itself, huge!

Hope some of these hit home and make you rethink various aspects of trading. But I am certainly, strongly on side for the existence of the holy grail.

Keyword regarding #1 above (with which I wholeheartedly agree) is identifying market context - I've yet to find indicators or strategies (that are publicly available) that account for that and are adaptable to a decent enough degree to trust with automation.

To me THAT'S always been the "holy grail", and no, I've never had expectations that I'd find it somewhere but would have to build it myself (it's taken me a LONG time but getting very close).

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RDK91 View Post
You do realize you are "just one of those gurus who couldnít actually trade themselves out of a paper bag if they had to" as long as you don't post any proof, right?

The fact that you claim to have created a holy grail that isn't even complex coding and is beating the biggest geniuses on the planet spending millions and millions a year to just keep their algorithms running is just to funny.

You might think that i am intimidated by those guy's that i know personally, but you are doing nothing different: "telling me what is possible". The only difference is is that there is plenty of information available for everyone to read on the biggest financial institutions of the world and their running costs, employees, returns, ... Plenty of information about how things are done in the industry. There is nothing about you anywhere and yet you are the one who beat them all.

Yeah right.


SunTrader View Post
That is what I noticed right away as well.

You have your opinion. They have theirs. Only you are not trying to impose yours on someone else - who seems to have a superiority complex of some sort.

Glad you noticed that - it was intentional. I donít have an opinion, I know from fact! Iím not trying to be anything at all - Iím trying to get anyone who wants to turn the corner to success to stop being intimidated by every thing they read and hear.

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Let me know which markets you want proof in!

All of them of course 😊.

Lets start with equities.

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  #123 (permalink)
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You know what I notice? That it's always non-Elite members that cause the most trouble. Ten years and 100k members later, I still know of no good reason for someone to be an active member here for YEARS, consider themselves a trader, and make the decision to purposely NOT support the community they spend time in.

But, I do know that, unfortunately, this exact scenario has occurred in the past when the users were banned with prior accounts.
@bobwest can say something eloquent and with patience, whereas I'm just upset. I've been working on the site in all my spare time only to babysit people that don't value our community?



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RDK91 View Post
All of them of course 😊.

Lets start with equities.

Sorry only trade futures. I donít think my data provider Rithmic does equities. But if they do, no problem Iíll do any equity you choose.

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  #125 (permalink)
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Fu510n View Post
Keyword regarding #1 above (with which I wholeheartedly agree) is identifying market context - I've yet to find indicators or strategies (that are publicly available) that account for that and are adaptable to a decent enough degree to trust with automation.

To me THAT'S always been the "holy grail", and no, I've never had expectations that I'd find it somewhere but would have to build it myself (it's taken me a LONG time but getting very close).

Fusion thatís what Iím trying to illustrate, you will need to build it yourself. The key word is adaptive indicators that adapt to any market conditions. The algorithm/methodology part of any system needs to adapt to current conditions as markets change their character all the time. Gone are the days when one rigid system could be traded on all markets. You need a system that adapts to any type of market.

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Screenshot_20200502-210421


That didn't take long. Next, queue up the post on ET. This guy really likes to ignore all the evidence right in front him, it's so much easier to simply believe what you want to believe. Never going to be a good trader like that.

The ban originally was only three months. Permanent now.

Mike

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You know what I notice? That it's always non-Elite members that cause the most trouble. Ten years and 100k members later, I still know of no good reason for someone to be an active member here for YEARS, consider themselves a trader, and make the decision to purposely NOT support the community they spend time in.

But, I do know that, unfortunately, this exact scenario has occurred in the past when the users were banned with prior accounts.
@bobwest can say something eloquent and with patience, whereas I'm just upset. I've been working on the site in all my spare time only to babysit people that don't value our community?



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Sometimes you just have to put a stop to things. Well done.

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If by "Holy Grail' we mean, what did it take to become a consistent trader?

1. Patience, I learned to wait until I really liked a setup instead of trying to trade every squiggle
2. Trade smaller, taking emotions and bias out of the mix. Yes I theoretically make less money on paper but in rreality I keep more. I have tried to upsize over and over and it doesn't work well for me
3. Err on the side of taking profits often rather than waiting all the way until a target gets hit
4. Scale out. See above
5. Keep your setups simple and repeat them over and over. Trading becomes boring when you get good at it, imo, but I still like it

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Japhro View Post
If by "Holy Grail' we mean, what did it take to become a consistent trader?

1. Patience, I learned to wait until I really liked a setup instead of trying to trade every squiggle
2. Trade smaller, taking emotions and bias out of the mix. Yes I theoretically make less money on paper but in rreality I keep more. I have tried to upsize over and over and it doesn't work well for me
3. Err on the side of taking profits often rather than waiting all the way until a target gets hit
4. Scale out. See above
5. Keep your setups simple and repeat them over and over. Trading becomes boring when you get good at it, imo, but I still like it

I think this is a much better definition of Holy Grail. We know that there are consistently profitable traders from academic studies. We also know that trend following, momentum, arbitrage, etc can all produce +ve expected value signals from academic studies. There are lots of research papers (The Journal of Portfolio Management, Financial Analysts Journal, The Journal of Finance and The Journal of Financial Economics) with evidence supporting many methodologies for producing an edge.
The question is how does any of us use this information to become consistently profitable.
I still think some people are fixated with this idea of a money machine that you can just turn on that makes money for you and you can then go off and do something else.
This is not possible.
Increasing your size is also part of the quest. If you want to increase your size then you need to change something in you.
There is this theory that you have a threshold over which you start to get anxious(for want of a better word).
Increasing your size can put you over your threshold. If you want to trade bigger size you need to increase your threshold.
Just like going to the gym increases your physical fitness/flexibility, meditation increases your threshold.
In other words you can take more stress without feeling anxious.
Of course increasing your threshold is not just good for your trading.
I have used broad concepts to explain the theory.
For those who find this suggestion useful https://www.amazon.co.uk/Thresholds-Mind-Bill-Harris/dp/0972178015
Stay safe

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Japhro View Post
5. Keep your setups simple and repeat them over and over. Trading becomes boring when you get good at it, imo, but I still like it

@Japhro, you are not the first person I've seen mention trading becoming boring once they gained some level of success. Could you explain why this is from your perspective? Thanks!

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Glad you noticed that - it was intentional. I donít have an opinion, I know from fact! Iím not trying to be anything at all - Iím trying to get anyone who wants to turn the corner to success to stop being intimidated by every thing they read and hear.

You "know" from fact. LMAO

Put up some. And cute try with ... pick a market. You pick fact man.

BTW just to be clear no one else, including myself, have put forward any facts either. 100% opinion in this topic so far. But then no one but yourself is claiming to have the facts.

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Well, I've posted lots of videos winning trade after trade using some techniques I feel have a great win rate. Doesn't seem to get much interest though,. So I think even if someone posted an amazing Holy Grail system, the reaction would probably be lackluster. The posts that seem to get the most response are the usual "I'm a newbie and here is my journal" type stuff.

Failure is not an option
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If the holy grail is a system that gives you consistent profits then there a many opportunities to find the so called holy grail but most systems are developed through some level of sacrifice that one may not be prepared to go through to get the key to the holy grail. I had been chasing trading success since 1996. I wasnít given a holy grail package but an opportunity to learn a trading methodology which produces results , impressive results. My issues had nothing to do with making money. They had more to do with personality and mental challenges which work to block any hope of finding and holding on to what you make. The battle of greed, impulsive behaviour, a terrible lack of patience and a basic understanding of what the market is telling you without the use, any use of any indicators of any kind, will keep you from understanding the holy grail even if it stared you in the face. In no way do I want to come across as promoting any company or saying I have the answer for you. It would be up to you to come and try it out and we for yourself. When you are making money consistently, which you will, you will only get the key to your holy grail if you can win the mental battles that follow. I trade with a small group of traders at the Fibonacci Institute. We trade pure price action. This is where I found my holy grail. This is a good as it gets as long as you have a plan to conquer the toughest challenges in trading, greed, impulsiveness and a lack of patience.

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SunTrader View Post
You "know" from fact. LMAO

Put up some. And cute try with ... pick a market. You pick fact man.

BTW just to be clear no one else, including myself, have put forward any facts either. 100% opinion in this topic so far. But then no one but yourself is claiming to have the facts.

Iím not wasting my precious time on someone whose main aim is to argue and find fault with everything that is said.
Get a life - there are some opinions in some of the stuff I have written and there are facts where I have indicated they are. Your attitude just illustrates that you must be a total loser in the markets and are not prepared to open your mind and receive some sage advice. It is always the losers who think they know better than everyone else who argue and obstruct instead of trying to engage in meaningful dialogue. I shall not waste my time responding to you any further. You are exactly like that twist from Antwerp RD591 or whatever his name was - knowitalls.

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lancelottrader View Post
Well, I've posted lots of videos winning trade after trade using some techniques I feel have a great win rate. Doesn't seem to get much interest though,. So I think even if someone posted an amazing Holy Grail system, the reaction would probably be lackluster. The posts that seem to get the most response are the usual "I'm a newbie and here is my journal" type stuff.

I unfortunately do not spend a lot of time here but when I received a note in my inbox about whether one could answer some members questions, I thought let me see if I can offer some perspective. But as you say, it appears that a lot of people on here do not want to discuss and learn, they want to argue and ridicule. If this site existed when I was starting out and I could have had opinions and insights of experienced traders I would have thought that I had won the lottery and embraced whatever information I was given. Sadly these newbies are arrogant and think they know better than everyone else.

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Well, I've posted lots of videos winning trade after trade using some techniques I feel have a great win rate. Doesn't seem to get much interest though,. So I think even if someone posted an amazing Holy Grail system, the reaction would probably be lackluster. The posts that seem to get the most response are the usual "I'm a newbie and here is my journal" type stuff.

Def interested in your trades and technique mate

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  #138 (permalink)
Arnhem, The Netherlands
 
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TraderDoc007 View Post
. Would anyone who has a system like this sell it or share it..NEVER. If you want a system such as this, you need to develop it yourself.

Why not share your system?

My opinion: retail systems / portoilio approaches are very personal but aren't by any means unknown. I understand people not wanting to disclose these methods out in the open, but I see some traders responding in this threat if they have some secret that is so amazing that sharing would mean end of their revenues. So I felt the need to react:

1) I can imagine 1 reason not sharing a system. And that is if your system is so widely copied that people are going to front run it and your edge is arbed away. But is this realistic? No I think so. Imo profitable retail traders are eating the crumbs other dropped and are not interested in picking up. Don't get me wrong, that can be a perfect system. But not a system that nobody knows and and is harvesting valuable secret alpha! If you do believe the latter, that wouldn't be very humble and the trading gods do know their way around with those people...

2) A profitable system for you does not imply a profitable system for other traders.
When traders are presented with the same profitable system, they end up having very different results.

A trader that just adopts algo's or discretionary methods as a black box will have problems surviving the inevitable periods of drawdowns. This why I agree with your comment that every trader has to develop or evolve their own methods/algo's. It's all about YOUR believe/knowledge of a system that can make you a successful trader. But to be honest you need some experience and hard work and failure for creating a system or portfolio approach that is profitable

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  #139 (permalink)
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TraderDoc007 View Post
I unfortunately do not spend a lot of time here but when I received a note in my inbox about whether one could answer some members questions, I thought let me see if I can offer some perspective. But as you say, it appears that a lot of people on here do not want to discuss and learn, they want to argue and ridicule. If this site existed when I was starting out and I could have had opinions and insights of experienced traders I would have thought that I had won the lottery and embraced whatever information I was given. Sadly these newbies are arrogant and think they know better than everyone else.

I am a newbie who happens to totally agree with you. I have never set out to look for a holy grail but I have always wanted to find out how to deepen my understanding of how the market works and how to make money consistently. I believe I May know how to make money consistently but to get the key to the holy grail I must also overcome greed, impulsiveness and develop a deeper ability to exercise patience. Without those behaviour changes a system that does 1000 percent daily will still do me no good.

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  #140 (permalink)
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rlstreet View Post
Why not share your system?

My opinion: retail systems / portoilio approaches are very personal but aren't by any means unknown. I understand people not wanting to disclose these methods out in the open, but I see some traders responding in this threat if they have some secret that is so amazing that sharing would mean end of their revenues. So I felt the need to react:

1) I can imagine 1 reason not sharing a system. And that is if your system is so widely copied that people are going to front run it and your edge is arbed away. But is this realistic? No I think so. Imo profitable retail traders are eating the crumbs other dropped and are not interested in picking up. Don't get me wrong, that can be a perfect system. But not a system that nobody knows and and is harvesting valuable secret alpha! If you do believe the latter, that wouldn't be very humble and the trading gods do know their way around with those people...

2) A profitable system for you does not imply a profitable system for other traders.
When traders are presented with the same profitable system, they end up having very different results.

A trader that just adopts algo's or discretionary methods as a black box will have problems surviving the inevitable periods of drawdowns. This why I agree with your comment that every trader has to develop or evolve their own methods/algo's. It's all about YOUR believe/knowledge of a system that can make you a successful trader. But to be honest you need some experience and hard work and failure for creating a system or portfolio approach that is profitable

And just to not fool anyone word "some" translates to 10-20+ years in the trenches full time. What works for one most likely wont work for another as its the ability to read the context what matters imo. So eventually if it took ya 20yrs of blood and sweat to arrive at consistent profitability I'm pretty sure sharing is the last option of interest for the time being

Regards,
Bel.

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  #141 (permalink)
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TraderDoc007 View Post
Iím not wasting my precious time ...

Oooh precious you say. Like I said no facts. Just opinion like all the rest of us. But yet you can't admit it. Maybe someday huh.

This was all in vain annnnyway because OP was - would you share - and the answer everyone gave was no (other than money management etc blah blah) whether or not they had one or even thought one existed.

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  #142 (permalink)
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SunTrader View Post
Oooh precious you say. Like I said no facts. Just opinion like all the rest of us. But yet you can't admit it. Maybe someday huh.

This was all in vain annnnyway because OP was - would you share - and the answer everyone gave was no (other than money management etc blah blah) whether or not they had one or even thought one existed.

If you really read the answers carefully you will find that the answer is yes we are sharing our holy grail but not necessarily methods for generating trading signals. That's because the journey is part of the holy grail and without the journey you will not become a consistently profitable trader. Don't underestimate the importance of exits and money management. These can make a huge difference to your bottom line. But even they are not as important as your psychology. To make money you need a +ve expected value strategy, compliant markets and great psychology.

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Aurac View Post
If you really read the answers carefully you will find that the answer is yes we are sharing our holy grail but not necessarily methods for generating trading signals. That's because the journey is part of the holy grail and without the journey you will not become a consistently profitable trader. Don't underestimate the importance of exits and money management. These can make a huge difference to your bottom line. But even they are not as important as your psychology. To make money you need a +ve expected value strategy, compliant markets and great psychology.

You missed my point. I am not looking for a holy grail beyond the one I believe I have and will not divulge.

But saying the obvious, money management etc is the holy grail, IMO is not sharing. A bit like Buffett saying buy only sound, well run, undervalued businesses.

Again I am not looking for anything. Just someone who does as the OP asked, or not. And not is what all the responses have been to date.

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Big Mike View Post
Screenshot_20200502-210421


That didn't take long. Next, queue up the post on ET. This guy really likes to ignore all the evidence right in front him, it's so much easier to simply believe what you want to believe. Never going to be a good trader like that.

The ban originally was only three months. Permanent now.

Mike

Defeatist mindset is a self fulfilling prophecy. Always keeping an open mind will eventually lead to the solution. ET has alot of negativity. I love the positivity and sharing here.

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  #145 (permalink)
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I wrote this while trading and haven't had a chance to edit; so please excuse me if it makes Joe Biden appear coherent and lucid...


I believe there are at least a few points we can all agree upon; because they are blatantly obvious to anyone who has ever endeavored to become a profitable trader. And for the most part, they are self-explanatory. 1) Adequate capitalization 2) Emotional Aptitude, which includes the requisite temperament, attitude, patience, discipline, mindfulness, and humility. 3) Risk/Trade Management i.e., traders must strive for both a high win rate and asymmetric payoffs. It is essential in trading that a high win rate is attained in conjunction with high expectancy, because the risk of ruin is a function of the loss rate. If your method does not have a high enough win rate then the risk of ruin will be greater due to the inevitability of an idiosyncratic loss or consecutive losers. As an addendum, an approach that provides quick feedback to alert the trader of failure as soon as possible is highly preferable. That being said, no matter how crude or refined a method one employs, it finally boils down to surviving against one's own incomplete intellect, a misfired bout of randomness, in controlling the risk, and in executing a set of consistent ideas day in and day out, so that chance can prevail.

Perhaps another fact we can all agree upon, is that there isnít one correct way to trade, nor one correct approach to the market that will afford you the best chance of coming out a consistent winner. A lot of that has to do with the fact that no two traders are exactly alike. Allow me to generalize and classify the 3 main types of traders. 1) Those who donít know anything, or have a very limited understanding about the markets. 2) Those who think they have an understanding of the markets; but are unable to recognize their lack of relevant knowledge. And, 3) Those who understand how the markets are structured, how they function, and who drives price.

In a very generalized manner (once again), the markets are still the same as they were in the past. Markets go up and they go down, they back and fill, and risk and uncertainty is still a fundamental reality in trading; and just as in the past, the best we can hope to achieve is an incomplete, but probabilistic knowledge of that environment. However, todayís markets have evolved considerably from past markets. Not the least of the reasons why they have changed is the shift from active to passive investment, and increased AUM of strategies that are on ďautopilotĒ There are still decisions being made by humans; by active value investors, and the fundamental/discretionary crowd, but their influence on price has dwindled dramatically. ~90% of trading volume comes from Quant, Index, ETFs, and Options.

Back in the day, the market used to work something like this. The market had been moving in a certain regime, and sooner or later a fund manager would get the inkling that a change was afoot. His action or inaction would disseminate exponentially to others, and then the regime would change. The key to keeping up with this was to know what the fund manager was keying off of, and then following that signal. So, back then 2 of the most important things that counted with regard to markets were sentiment and momentum. That is, it was all behavioral, and reasonably efficient. Sure, they would like to comment on fundamentals, but the fundamentals were only important because they influenced the behavioral.

.A great deal of the human component has been removed, and this is why a trader should have a foundation of knowledge about the market and an understanding of how it works, before he actually begins to trade. One used to have to monitor data with human input, and you had best be making your inputs adapt to what the fund managers were watching (i.e. usually the length of past data). If the in-crowd had switched to watching the last week and you are watching the last two months, a change would occur before you become aware.

There Is still a herd effect, in a sense. Itís self-referential in the same way that the human phenomenon would feed upon itself.However, it is much more mechanical than psychological in nature. For the most part, non-human influenced data is fixed and linear And, it all falls neatly into place. ďAn increase in volatility typically leads to an increase in systematic selling, which happens in an environment of reduced liquidity, and hence can produce outsized market impactĒ Volatility spikes lead to less liquidity and also to systematic de-leveraging, which means selling into a falling and illiquid market, which in turn drives volatility higher, and around and around. Once trailing realized starts to move higher in a sustainable fashion, target-vol. deleveraging starts and executes ďpassivelyĒ in the market over the ensuing days until thereís nothing left to purge."

The markets have changed and that requires an approach built on an analytical framework that is relevant to current drivers of price. Accordingly, the tools we use have to change and so does the perspective needed to understand the context of the modern market. Therefore, it is not the tool nor technique so much, but the features of the market that count and define if an idea might work. The goal should always be to figure out the game that is being played, and then play that game.

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  #146 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
I wrote this while trading and haven't had a chance to edit; so please excuse me if it makes Joe Biden appear coherent and lucid...


I believe there are at least a few points we can all agree upon; because they are blatantly obvious to anyone who has ever endeavored to become a profitable trader. And for the most part, they are self-explanatory. 1) Adequate capitalization 2) Emotional Aptitude, which includes the requisite temperament, attitude, patience, discipline, mindfulness, and humility. 3) Risk/Trade Management i.e., traders must strive for both a high win rate and asymmetric payoffs. It is essential in trading that a high win rate is attained in conjunction with high expectancy, because the risk of ruin is a function of the loss rate. If your method does not have a high enough win rate then the risk of ruin will be greater due to the inevitability of an idiosyncratic loss or consecutive losers. As an addendum, an approach that provides quick feedback to alert the trader of failure as soon as possible is highly preferable. That being said, no matter how crude or refined a method one employs, it finally boils down to surviving against one's own incomplete intellect, a misfired bout of randomness, in controlling the risk, and in executing a set of consistent ideas day in and day out, so that chance can prevail.

Perhaps another fact we can all agree upon, is that there isnít one correct way to trade, nor one correct approach to the market that will afford you the best chance of coming out a consistent winner. A lot of that has to do with the fact that no two traders are exactly alike. Allow me to generalize and classify the 3 main types of traders. 1) Those who donít know anything, or have a very limited understanding about the markets. 2) Those who think they have an understanding of the markets; but are unable to recognize their lack of relevant knowledge. And, 3) Those who understand how the markets are structured, how they function, and who drives price.

In a very generalized manner (once again), the markets are still the same as they were in the past. Markets go up and they go down, they back and fill, and risk and uncertainty is still a fundamental reality in trading; and just as in the past, the best we can hope to achieve is an incomplete, but probabilistic knowledge of that environment. However, todayís markets have evolved considerably from past markets. Not the least of the reasons why they have changed is the shift from active to passive investment, and increased AUM of strategies that are on ďautopilotĒ There are still decisions being made by humans; by active value investors, and the fundamental/discretionary crowd, but their influence on price has dwindled dramatically. ~90% of trading volume comes from Quant, Index, ETFs, and Options.

Back in the day, the market used to work something like this. The market had been moving in a certain regime, and sooner or later a fund manager would get the inkling that a change was afoot. His action or inaction would disseminate exponentially to others, and then the regime would change. The key to keeping up with this was to know what the fund manager was keying off of, and then following that signal. So, back then 2 of the most important things that counted with regard to markets were sentiment and momentum. That is, it was all behavioral, and reasonably efficient. Sure, they would like to comment on fundamentals, but the fundamentals were only important because they influenced the behavioral.

.A great deal of the human component has been removed, and this is why a trader should have a foundation of knowledge about the market and an understanding of how it works, before he actually begins to trade. One used to have to monitor data with human input, and you had best be making your inputs adapt to what the fund managers were watching (i.e. usually the length of past data). If the in-crowd had switched to watching the last week and you are watching the last two months, a change would occur before you become aware.

There Is still a herd effect, in a sense. Itís self-referential in the same way that the human phenomenon would feed upon itself.However, it is much more mechanical than psychological in nature. For the most part, non-human influenced data is fixed and linear And, it all falls neatly into place. ďAn increase in volatility typically leads to an increase in systematic selling, which happens in an environment of reduced liquidity, and hence can produce outsized market impactĒ Volatility spikes lead to less liquidity and also to systematic de-leveraging, which means selling into a falling and illiquid market, which in turn drives volatility higher, and around and around. Once trailing realized starts to move higher in a sustainable fashion, target-vol. deleveraging starts and executes ďpassivelyĒ in the market over the ensuing days until thereís nothing left to purge."

The markets have changed and that requires an approach built on an analytical framework that is relevant to current drivers of price. Accordingly, the tools we use have to change and so does the perspective needed to understand the context of the modern market. Therefore, it is not the tool nor technique so much, but the features of the market that count and define if an idea might work. The goal should always be to figure out the game that is being played, and then play that game.

Interesting diatribe but is this an attempt to share your holy grail or are you saying you won't or neither or both ?

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  #147 (permalink)
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SunTrader View Post
You missed my point. I am not looking for a holy grail beyond the one I believe I have and will not divulge.

But saying the obvious, money management etc is the holy grail, IMO is not sharing. A bit like Buffett saying buy only sound, well run, undervalued businesses.

Again I am not looking for anything. Just someone who does as the OP asked, or not. And not is what all the responses have been to date.

Many a truth spoken in jest
But you are right and the answer is yes and I am attempting to share but the margin is too small to contain it.

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  #148 (permalink)
Scarborough
 
Experience: Intermediate
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tigertrader View Post
I wrote this while trading and haven't had a chance to edit; so please excuse me if it makes Joe Biden appear coherent and lucid...


I believe there are at least a few points we can all agree upon; because they are blatantly obvious to anyone who has ever endeavored to become a profitable trader. And for the most part, they are self-explanatory. 1) Adequate capitalization 2) Emotional Aptitude, which includes the requisite temperament, attitude, patience, discipline, mindfulness, and humility. 3) Risk/Trade Management i.e., traders must strive for both a high win rate and asymmetric payoffs. It is essential in trading that a high win rate is attained in conjunction with high expectancy, because the risk of ruin is a function of the loss rate. If your method does not have a high enough win rate then the risk of ruin will be greater due to the inevitability of an idiosyncratic loss or consecutive losers. As an addendum, an approach that provides quick feedback to alert the trader of failure as soon as possible is highly preferable. That being said, no matter how crude or refined a method one employs, it finally boils down to surviving against one's own incomplete intellect, a misfired bout of randomness, in controlling the risk, and in executing a set of consistent ideas day in and day out, so that chance can prevail.

Perhaps another fact we can all agree upon, is that there isnít one correct way to trade, nor one correct approach to the market that will afford you the best chance of coming out a consistent winner. A lot of that has to do with the fact that no two traders are exactly alike. Allow me to generalize and classify the 3 main types of traders. 1) Those who donít know anything, or have a very limited understanding about the markets. 2) Those who think they have an understanding of the markets; but are unable to recognize their lack of relevant knowledge. And, 3) Those who understand how the markets are structured, how they function, and who drives price.

In a very generalized manner (once again), the markets are still the same as they were in the past. Markets go up and they go down, they back and fill, and risk and uncertainty is still a fundamental reality in trading; and just as in the past, the best we can hope to achieve is an incomplete, but probabilistic knowledge of that environment. However, todayís markets have evolved considerably from past markets. Not the least of the reasons why they have changed is the shift from active to passive investment, and increased AUM of strategies that are on ďautopilotĒ There are still decisions being made by humans; by active value investors, and the fundamental/discretionary crowd, but their influence on price has dwindled dramatically. ~90% of trading volume comes from Quant, Index, ETFs, and Options.

Back in the day, the market used to work something like this. The market had been moving in a certain regime, and sooner or later a fund manager would get the inkling that a change was afoot. His action or inaction would disseminate exponentially to others, and then the regime would change. The key to keeping up with this was to know what the fund manager was keying off of, and then following that signal. So, back then 2 of the most important things that counted with regard to markets were sentiment and momentum. That is, it was all behavioral, and reasonably efficient. Sure, they would like to comment on fundamentals, but the fundamentals were only important because they influenced the behavioral.

.A great deal of the human component has been removed, and this is why a trader should have a foundation of knowledge about the market and an understanding of how it works, before he actually begins to trade. One used to have to monitor data with human input, and you had best be making your inputs adapt to what the fund managers were watching (i.e. usually the length of past data). If the in-crowd had switched to watching the last week and you are watching the last two months, a change would occur before you become aware.

There Is still a herd effect, in a sense. Itís self-referential in the same way that the human phenomenon would feed upon itself.However, it is much more mechanical than psychological in nature. For the most part, non-human influenced data is fixed and linear And, it all falls neatly into place. ďAn increase in volatility typically leads to an increase in systematic selling, which happens in an environment of reduced liquidity, and hence can produce outsized market impactĒ Volatility spikes lead to less liquidity and also to systematic de-leveraging, which means selling into a falling and illiquid market, which in turn drives volatility higher, and around and around. Once trailing realized starts to move higher in a sustainable fashion, target-vol. deleveraging starts and executes ďpassivelyĒ in the market over the ensuing days until thereís nothing left to purge."

The markets have changed and that requires an approach built on an analytical framework that is relevant to current drivers of price. Accordingly, the tools we use have to change and so does the perspective needed to understand the context of the modern market. Therefore, it is not the tool nor technique so much, but the features of the market that count and define if an idea might work. The goal should always be to figure out the game that is being played, and then play that game.

This is so eloquently put, I intend on reading this post over and over again. It is packed with information that needs to be combed out / siphoned and analyzed for the precious nuggets of knowledge. Thank you so much .

I I may ask, how or where does AI play into this whole market ecosystem, for the lack of a better word?

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  #149 (permalink)
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Emmanuel Erskine View Post
This is so eloquently put, I intend on reading this post over and over again. It is packed with information that needs to be combed out / siphoned and analyzed for the precious nuggets of knowledge. Thank you so much .

I I may ask, how or where does AI play into this whole market ecosystem, for the lack of a better word?

Don't understand these posts.
I thought the thread was on whether or not one would share one's holy grail and why or why not ?

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  #150 (permalink)
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Aurac View Post
Don't understand these posts.
I thought the thread was on whether or not one would share one's holy grail and why or why not ?

The idea is that even if given a holy grail these are the factors that come into play for anyoneís system to be of any use to you. This is very much relevant to the conversation as far as I understand it. This is a holy grail, but these are all the factors that make decipherable. Thatís how I understand it and thatís why I want to read it over again.

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  #151 (permalink)
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Lots of info to go through thanks

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  #152 (permalink)
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Aurac View Post
Interesting diatribe but is this an attempt to share your holy grail or are you saying you won't or neither or both ?


It's not a diatribe; it's a mission statement for trading. I'm not attacking anyone, just pointing out some very salient facts. Everyone gets what they want out of the markets, including those who choose to be out of the markets, those who blame the markets for their lack of profitability, and those who think that achieving lasting and meaningful success in any discipline is easy. In other words, you get out of it, what you put into it!

So, if you and @SunTrader were to suspend your collective cynicism for a moment, and read the last paragraph, you might be able to decipher the post's meaning and intent.

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  #153 (permalink)
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Heres my idea of the holy grail to make big bucks. I safely disclose it because I dont think any of you have the b...s to try.
Based on highly successful traders that spring to mind
Livermore sold the market after the San Fransisco earthquake
Druckenmiller sold the British pound
Paulson subprime mortage
Method
Fundamental info used..... no TA
No day trading picking up pennies in front of the steam roller
Bet the farm. No 1% of your capital
All are shorts
And 90% LUCK
Now for the deluge
bobc

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  #154 (permalink)
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Emmanuel Erskine View Post
The idea is that even if given a holy grail these are the factors that come into play for anyoneís system to be of any use to you. This is very much relevant to the conversation as far as I understand it. This is a holy grail, but these are all the factors that make decipherable. Thatís how I understand it and thatís why I want to read it over again.

Forgive if I am misunderstanding the question. My thinking was that the question is "Would you share your Holy Grail ?"
And the answer would be along the lines of
"Yes, I would and here's why"
"No I wouldn't and here's why"
And even possibly
"Depends, and here's why"

Certainly not " if given a holy grail these are the factors that come into play..."

If I am incorrect in assessing the question then of course I am willing to be corrected as my interest is in having a conversation and not an argument.

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  #155 (permalink)
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Aurac View Post
Forgive if I am misunderstanding the question. My thinking was that the question is "Would you share your Holy Grail ?"
And the answer would be along the lines of
"Yes, I would and here's why"
"No I wouldn't and here's why"
And even possibly
"Depends, and here's why"

Certainly not " if given a holy grail these are the factors that come into play..."

If I am incorrect in assessing the question then of course I am willing to be corrected as my interest is in having a conversation and not an argument.

I completely agree with you. I was coming from the point of view that a holy grail is only as good as the discipline that is accorded it, as in if you have not rules and discipline governing your actions a holy grail would be of no use. I think itís because I struggle with that so I think Iím a bit hung up on that. But you are absolutely right. I am off topic later.

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  #156 (permalink)
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bobc View Post
Heres my idea of the holy grail to make big bucks. I safely disclose it because I dont think any of you have the b...s to try.
Based on highly successful traders that spring to mind
Livermore sold the market after the San Fransisco earthquake
Druckenmiller sold the British pound
Paulson subprime mortage
Method
Fundamental info used..... no TA
No day trading picking up pennies in front of the steam roller
Bet the farm. No 1% of your capital
All are shorts
And 90% LUCK
Now for the deluge
bobc


you are familiar with the concept of survivorship bias, aren't you?

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  #157 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
you are familiar with the concept of survivorship bias, aren't you?

I swear that this basic concept should be required understanding by every trader. It is practically rule #1!

Mike

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  #158 (permalink)
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bobc View Post
Heres my idea of the holy grail to make big bucks. I safely disclose it because I dont think any of you have the b...s to try.
Based on highly successful traders that spring to mind
Livermore sold the market after the San Fransisco earthquake
Druckenmiller sold the British pound
Paulson subprime mortage
Method
Fundamental info used..... no TA
No day trading picking up pennies in front of the steam roller
Bet the farm. No 1% of your capital
All are shorts
And 90% LUCK
Now for the deluge
bobc

It's also the best way to bet in Vegas. So it does have some merit and clearly full back-tested given the data you have shown

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  #159 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
I swear that this basic concept should be required understanding by every trader. It is practically rule #1!

Mike

I immediately thought of "John, the High-Yield Trader" from "Fooled by Randomness".

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  #160 (permalink)
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bobc View Post
Heres my idea of the holy grail to make big bucks. I safely disclose it because I dont think any of you have the b...s to try.
Based on highly successful traders that spring to mind
Livermore sold the market after the San Fransisco earthquake
Druckenmiller sold the British pound
Paulson subprime mortage
Method
Fundamental info used..... no TA
No day trading picking up pennies in front of the steam roller
Bet the farm. No 1% of your capital
All are shorts
And 90% LUCK
Now for the deluge
bobc

Disclose it? An idea of. Nice try.

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  #161 (permalink)
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Let me ask you a Question ? If you found a gold mine would you put the location on social media . I would share my trading ideas with family and very close friends .

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bobc View Post
Heres my idea of the holy grail to make big bucks. I safely disclose it because I dont think any of you have the b...s to try.
Based on highly successful traders that spring to mind
Livermore sold the market after the San Fransisco earthquake
.
.
Fundamental info used..... no TA
.
.
bobc

Actually, according to "Reminiscences..." and other sources, he shorted Union Pacific Railroad BEFORE the quake hit. His reason wasn't fundamental. It was an intuition. Even he said he didn't understand his intuition about this one.

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  #163 (permalink)
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Let me ask you a Question ? If you found a gold mine would you put the location on social media . I would share my trading ideas with family and very close friends .

I would argue that even if you gave your ideas to your family and very close friends in perfect detail, they would not be able to execute the entries as you do, because the market is subjective and each individual would have a different mental/psychological/emotional disposition as well (for better or worse).

I think that anything suspected to be a potential grail only has potential for grail-greatness until the next trade which would be just another chance for it to fail. :-)

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Exactly, just like the turtle traders said (his name is escaping me right now). I could tell people when to buy and sell, and they'd still screw it up.

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I would argue that even if you gave your ideas to your family and very close friends in perfect detail, they would not be able to execute the entries as you do, because the market is subjective and each individual would have a different mental/psychological/emotional disposition as well (for better or worse).

I think that anything suspected to be a potential grail only has potential for grail-greatness until the next trade which would be just another chance for it to fail. :-)

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  #165 (permalink)
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I guess a lot off people who really think they have the Holy Grail system are picking up pennies and have a long enough successful period for them to believe it's secret stuff. But in trading there is no free lunch. A high winrate comes with a price, they just haven't met their friend the steamroller.

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  #166 (permalink)
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Tad bit related since topic of historically big success came up with shorting markets around major events.

I've a friend who was buying far out of the money monthly puts since Dec 2019 for pennies. He made it big in recent coronavirus hit. If you are asking how big? He has converted INR 7800/- into INR 42,00,000/-, that's more than 500%+ return. He was risking around same amount each month for hero-zero strategy.

Funny thing is he is one of those typical Vegas guys, likes to be on slot machine, likes to buy lotteries. Has no real system, and almost no real knowledge of markets or global economics either. And didn't knew what corona was till government announced lock-down.lol

I can totally see him writing a book in future about "How I turned pennies into million", that is if he inclines to make money from it.

Maybe he would have to since he is having almost no +ve MTM days after the big profit booking, but those are small intraday losses, he is still far away from blowing his newly earned fortune. But I can see him blowing it up and ending worse than he was before making it.


His income source before this was running telegram channle to give arbitrary small SL big tgt calls on index. He still has it with some 35 paid members.

Now the question is, was that holy grail? Was he Livermore of today? Can others copy it?

Since I watched this from sidelines live, I'm very amused thinking if I was the new entrant, I would think he is god and coax him to get his "holy grail" haha. I would even be ready to pay to learn from him.

It really is funny how perspective changes based on your own experience and knowledge. This is why that survivor bias thing mentioned was important on last page.

Today markets have been boring here and coffee has taken over.

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  #167 (permalink)
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Imagine a world that was perfect. Variance did not exist. There were no approximations and risk was nowhere to be found. Such a world would not present any opportunities and would have no enterprise. Such a world would be boring, unchallenging, and would offer no incentives. Such a world would be devoid of humans, and only be inhabited by artificially intelligent robots that appear to be humans.

Fortunately, we live in an imperfect world, that makes us feel perfectly human. It offers opportunities, incentives, and enterprise. It was by design, a world created where uncertainty can never be eliminated. Because, if it was possible to eliminate uncertainties it would be a world devoid of energy and life.

While uncertainties are transcendent, and risk cannot be eliminated, you still have choice. Active or passive, and you can switch back and forth if you wish. You have the ability to choose styles, instruments, and levels of exposure, all the while believing you might be better off handling one type of risk over the other. But returns originate out of risk and not the other way around; and where there is the chance of any returns, there will always be risk

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  #168 (permalink)
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Well
Thank you to all the members for the polite replies
Big Mikes reply was borderline derogartory.
Aurac was sarcastic and questioned my back testing.
Even poor old Sun Trader was polite, but he has to be because I ve got the goods on him.
Tiger writes very well.
hclara has discovered a gold mine and wants to tell his family. Thats the last lot you should tell

It remains that only one member has offered a holy grail (besides me)
Thats nikotron post 84
Disappointing

More holygrail info to follow
regards
bobc

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  #169 (permalink)
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bobc View Post
Well
Thank you to all the members for the polite replies
Big Mikes reply was borderline derogartory.
Aurac was sarcastic and questioned my back testing.
Even poor old Sun Trader was polite, but he has to be because I ve got the goods on him.
Tiger writes very well.
hclara has discovered a gold mine and wants to tell his family. Thats the last lot you should tell

It remains that only one member has offered a holy grail (besides me)
Thats nikotron post 84
Disappointing

More holygrail info to follow
regards
bobc

I can be forgiven because Iím a newbie. Holy grails are just not in my radar. Establishing and implementing good trading habits as well as over overcoming and defeating negative impulses are currently my goal. But I appreciate reading every post. Quite interesting. Thank you.

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  #170 (permalink)
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Exactly, just like the turtle traders said (his name is escaping me right now). I could tell people when to buy and sell, and they'd still screw it up.


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Richard Dennis.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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  #171 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
Imagine a world that was perfect. Variance did not exist. There were no approximations and risk was nowhere to be found. Such a world would not present any opportunities and would have no enterprise. Such a world would be boring, unchallenging, and would offer no incentives. Such a world would be devoid of humans, and only be inhabited by artificially intelligent robots that appear to be humans.

Fortunately, we live in an imperfect world, that makes us feel perfectly human. It offers opportunities, incentives, and enterprise. It was by design, a world created where uncertainty can never be eliminated. Because, if it was possible to eliminate uncertainties it would be a world devoid of energy and life.

While uncertainties are transcendent, and risk cannot be eliminated, you still have choice. Active or passive, and you can switch back and forth if you wish. You have the ability to choose styles, instruments, and levels of exposure, all the while believing you might be better off handling one type of risk over the other. But returns originate out of risk and not the other way around; and where there is the chance of any returns, there will always be risk

Variance is the spice of life. A 'perfect' world would be the most horrible thing imaginable. Thus, no need for theodicies. Quite the opposite.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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  #172 (permalink)
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Anagami View Post
Variance is the spice of life. A 'perfect' world would be the most horrible thing imaginable. Thus, no need for theodicies. Quite the opposite.

perfect is imperfect...

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snax View Post
@Japhro, you are not the first person I've seen mention trading becoming boring once they gained some level of success. Could you explain why this is from your perspective? Thanks!

For me, 2 reasons :
1. There is a lot of waiting. much more waiting that trading right now. I live in Asia so I only trade from 8am EST to about 12-1pm EST, but out of that time period I might only be in trades for 20-30mins total. The rest is waiting
2. I trade the same 2-3 setups over and over. If I don't get my preferred setups, I don't trade. See above. Trading the same setups might seem boring, and it is, but that is offset largely by ringing in a winning trade.

Mostly, I trade intraday reversals based on a few things that I watch, then price action and orderflow for the entry. There is nothing fancy or exotic, I try to establish market context (bullish, bearish, neutral conditions) and generally only trade neutral/range days. I have about an 82% win rate now and just do the same thing over and over.

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  #174 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Exactly, just like the turtle traders said (his name is escaping me right now). I could tell people when to buy and sell, and they'd still screw it up.


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  #175 (permalink)
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Emmanuel Erskine View Post
I can be forgiven because Iím a newbie. Holy grails are just not in my radar. Establishing and implementing good trading habits as well as over overcoming and defeating negative impulses are currently my goal. But I appreciate reading every post. Quite interesting. Thank you.

You say that....But maybe, just maybe ....that's your recipe for a holy grail and you are sharing......Thank you.
L

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  #176 (permalink)
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snax View Post
I would argue that even if you gave your ideas to your family and very close friends in perfect detail, they would not be able to execute the entries as you do, because the market is subjective and each individual would have a different mental/psychological/emotional disposition as well (for better or worse).

I think that anything suspected to be a potential grail only has potential for grail-greatness until the next trade which would be just another chance for it to fail. :-)

I have had family members ask how to trade and just mentioned I didn't really want too as I would feel guilty if they dumped an account like I did starting out . I have spent years doing this and far from being great at it . I am retired and do it as a hobby and love it . I manage to keep my head above water and that keeps me going .

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  #177 (permalink)
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hclara View Post
I have had family members ask how to trade and just mentioned I didn't really want too as I would feel guilty if they dumped an account like I did starting out . I have spent years doing this and far from being great at it . I am retired and do it as a hobby and love it . I manage to keep my head above water and that keeps me going .

And I bet those family members and friends think that you are "keeping secrets" or simply "jealous" of them for not sharing how to make money quickly in markets.

For some weird reasons in recent times I've seen influx of new traders around me and they all think the exact same thing I mentioned above when I dare deny them. I know what trading took from me, and if offered a choice to redo I would probably choose little smartly.

The most ironic and hilarious thing in here is often that I make abundantly clear that I'm not making lot of money, in fact barely staying up float, nothing in my lifestyle indicates otherwise, these people also believe me on that but for some weird reasons would still think that I'm hiding from them way to make quick money in markets. And to make matters worse, they think that it will work out better for them because I'm not as smart as them (Although they don't say it on face but clearly thinking about it)

/losing track with the original topic here, but I had to say it. My last post on this thread I promise

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LastDino View Post
And I bet those family members and friends think that you are "keeping secrets" or simply "jealous" of them for not sharing how to make money quickly in markets.

For some weird reasons in recent times I've seen influx of new traders around me and they all think the exact same thing I mentioned above when I dare deny them. I know what trading took from me, and if offered a choice to redo I would probably choose little smartly.

The most ironic and hilarious thing in here is often that I make abundantly clear that I'm not making lot of money, in fact barely staying up float, nothing in my lifestyle indicates otherwise, these people also believe me on that but for some weird reasons would still think that I'm hiding from them way to make quick money in markets. And to make matters worse, they think that it will work our better for them because I'm not as smart as them (Although they don't say it on face but clearly thinking about it)

/losing track with the original topic here, but I had to say it. My last post on this thread I promise

You are so correct . I can't believe some of the comments I have received from family members , like some of the comments are none of their business .

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  #179 (permalink)
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For those of you who printed out my holy grail and stuck it on your computer screen
would you please add the following:
IDEAs ,at the top . ( which I will give you soon)
Timing , just above LUCK.. (you dont want to wait 3 years like Paulson,unless your partner is a Wall St lawer)

We all gotta eat
bobc

PS Just two more posts

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  #180 (permalink)
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Aurac View Post
You say that....But maybe, just maybe ....that's your recipe for a holy grail and you are sharing......Thank you.
L

Thank you for that. I guess I havenít actually thought of it that way and you are right because it is working. The patience to wait for the trade has been a challenge which has been costly at times but since I started fighting the urge and try to obey my rules thing have been working quite well. Thank you again. Itís opened my eye and mind.

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  #181 (permalink)
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Emmanuel Erskine View Post
Thank you for that. I guess I havenít actually thought of it that way and you are right because it is working. The patience to wait for the trade has been a challenge which has been costly at times but since I started fighting the urge and try to obey my rules thing have been working quite well. Thank you again. Itís opened my eye and mind.

At the end of the day or night depending on your timezone that's why we are here. Learning, sharing and having great conversations.
Thank you as well
Here's to a bigger boat

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  #182 (permalink)
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Aurac View Post
At the end of the day or night depending on your timezone that's why we are here. Learning, sharing and having great conversations.
Thank you as well
Here's to a bigger boat

Absolutely!

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  #183 (permalink)
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Emmanuel Erskine View Post
Thank you for that. I guess I havenít actually thought of it that way and you are right because it is working. The patience to wait for the trade has been a challenge which has been costly at times but since I started fighting the urge and try to obey my rules thing have been working quite well. Thank you again. Itís opened my eye and mind.

I heard a saying many years ago and it was let a trade come to you instead of chasing after one . I try to always keep that in the back of my mind . I have found over the years the less I trade the better I do .

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  #184 (permalink)
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hclara View Post
I heard a saying many years ago and it was let a trade come to you instead of chasing after one . I try to always keep that in the back of my mind . I have found over the years the less I trade the better I do .

That so accurately true. I try not to take more than two trades a day. Difficult as it may be, itís the only strategy that gives me a winning week. I am working on cutting Fridays out as well. Four days a week should be more than enough to preserve energy and excitement to trade for the coming week. So far so good. Thanks for the advise. I k ow a wiseman whe I encounter one.

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  #185 (permalink)
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Emmanuel Erskine View Post
That so accurately true. I try not to take more than two trades a day. Difficult as it may be, itís the only strategy that gives me a winning week. I am working on cutting Fridays out as well. Four days a week should be more than enough to preserve energy and excitement to trade for the coming week. So far so good. Thanks for the advise. I k ow a wiseman whe I encounter one.

Next thing, you'll be cutting out trading the opening, and then you'll be cutting out the closes, and of course, trading around reports. These are all commonly held shibboleths of beginning traders. Trading is exactly like any performance based endeavor, and that means you have to practice to achieve competency. Are you trading for average, or to make money?

If you lack the skills to trade, then trade to acquire the skills you lack

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tigertrader View Post
Next thing, you'll be cutting out trading the opening, and then you'll be cutting out the closes, and of course, trading around reports. These are all commonly held shibboleths of beginning traders. Trading is exactly like any performance based endeavor, and that means you have to practice to achieve competency. Are you trading for average, or to make money?

If you lack the skills to trade, then trade to acquire the skills you lack

You are so right , I have cut out all 3 of those however tempting it may get at times .

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  #187 (permalink)
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hclara View Post
You are so right , I have cut out all 3 of those however tempting it may get at times .


you do realize, these are arguably the best times to trade?

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tigertrader View Post
you do realize, these are arguably the best times to trade?

Yes but the worst for beginners that get pulled by emotions and whipsawed out of trades.

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  #189 (permalink)
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Japhro View Post
Yes but the worst for beginners that get pulled by emotions and whipsawed out of trades.

well then, how do you learn, if you are afraid to try

that's why they have micros

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  #190 (permalink)
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Japhro View Post
Yes but the worst for beginners that get pulled by emotions and whipsawed out of trades.

Beginners always believe that scalping with small stops lowers the monetary risk to their account.

They are wrong.

The proper way to lower monetary risk:

a) Widen your stop to a REASONABLE amount, perhaps start at 1/3rd of the ADR
b) Trade a micro market, not a mini. This reduces point value by a factor of 10

Why?

Because re-entering the trade multiple times because "I was right, just early" is one way to blow up your account. Give your trade enough room to be right, or wrong. That should be the outcome, right or wrong. Not "right, but early".

Mike

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  #191 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Beginners always believe that scalping with small stops lowers the monetary risk to their account.

They are wrong.

The proper way to lower monetary risk:

a) Widen your stop to a REASONABLE amount, perhaps start at 1/3rd of the ADR
b) Trade a micro market, not a mini. This reduces point value by a factor of 10

Why?

Because re-entering the trade multiple times because "I was right, just early" is one way to blow up your account. Give your trade enough room to be right, or wrong. That should be the outcome, right or wrong. Not "right, but early".

Mike

Indeed. They like to trade for average which encourages them to take small profits, and teaches them to maximize of the chance of gain, rather than to maximize the gain.

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tigertrader View Post
Indeed. They like to trade for average which encourages them to take small profits, and teaches them to maximize of the chance of gain, rather than to maximize the gain.



Got any advice for those of us who close winners too early, even when we know better? I am so fed up with getting in my own way


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  #193 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
Next thing, you'll be cutting out trading the opening, and then you'll be cutting out the closes, and of course, trading around reports. These are all commonly held shibboleths of beginning traders. Trading is exactly like any performance based endeavor, and that means you have to practice to achieve competency. Are you trading for average, or to make money?

If you lack the skills to trade, then trade to acquire the skills you lack

This is a gift you have give. Me. I e been going back and forth about my trading times. I e just recently made a commitment to not trade the open. I never trade the close and find that trading the EU time frame can be benefit but the best time is around 10.00 to 11am when the market has calmed down and retraced. You have confirmed my thoughts and I appreciate that very much. Iíll add it to my rules and stick to post market open or on occasion premarket and get out before the open. Masterful advise.

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  #194 (permalink)
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snax View Post
Got any advice for those of us who close winners too early, even when we know better? I am so fed up with getting in my own way


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Most traders exit their winning trades too early because they trade for average and lack the discipline to watch their profits erode. Markets usually do go further than one thinks, however these excesses can evaporate quickly also.

For me at least, managing a losing trade isn't fraught with much angst. I don't overstay my welcome. I just get out! Paradoxically managing a winning trade is much more emotionally demanding and realizing a large winning trade can be more emotionally destabilizing than a losing trade.

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snax View Post
Got any advice for those of us who close winners too early, even when we know better? I am so fed up with getting in my own way


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I have found a fear of losing is a reason I keep jumping out of winners. Also, as Big Mike said, expand your stop a bit more. Simulate for a while and try to sit through what might be looking like a trade going against you. Lastly, if you use ninja trader, use the playback function and spend some time on market replay. playback the trades that you jumped out of for whatever reason and analyze or observe your feelings and your fears. A fear of losing was a big problem for me. Wanting to be right and not having a good reason of why I jumped into the market was a root cause as well. Of course I could be wrong but fear is always a reason we leave money on the table.

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tigertrader View Post
Most traders exit their winning trades too early because they trade for average and lack the discipline to watch their profits erode. Markets usually do go further than one thinks, however these excesses can evaporate quickly also.



For me at least, managing a losing trade isn't fraught with much angst. I don't overstay my welcome. I just get out! Paradoxically managing a winning trade is much more emotionally demanding and realizing a large winning trade can be more emotionally destabilizing than a losing trade.



For me I think I just have to keep building discipline and judgment.

Judgment in the sense that when I have selected a questionable entry, exiting with a small profit eliminates many potential losing trades. But its a losing strategy when the price-action remains favorable once in the trade so Iím not pressing my winners which is very bad.

The discipline I need is to be able to watch the price-action once in a trade in a calm, detached manner so that I can learn to do things like add on to the trade at certainpoints or take partial-profits.

I canít practice those things if I simply walk away from the screen so I force myself to try to grow past this but I sure flake out and close at the worst times. Just going to take more practice like anything else in trading.


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snax View Post
For me I think I just have to keep building discipline and judgment.

Judgment in the sense that when I have selected a questionable entry, exiting with a small profit eliminates many potential losing trades. But its a losing strategy when the price-action remains favorable once in the trade so Iím not pressing my winners which is very bad.

The discipline I need is to be able to watch the price-action once in a trade in a calm, detached manner so that I can learn to do things like add on to the trade at certainpoints or take partial-profits.

I canít practice those things if I simply walk away from the screen so I force myself to try to grow past this but I sure flake out and close at the worst times. Just going to take more practice like anything else in trading.


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You must have a strong conviction of why you entered the trade. If it is questionable you probably shouldnít be in it. That would be a sure reason you would have the expectation of a losing trade. You must have a healthy understanding of when the buyers are jumping in and where to expect resistance. Jump in with the buyers and jump out before resistance is reached. Donít overstay your welcome. This eliminates fear and builds confidence to stay through any minor down swing. Donít take a trade just because it looks like itís going up. Take trades that offer you a high probability of success with plenty of room to the next resistance level.

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Emmanuel Erskine View Post
You must have a strong conviction of why you entered the trade. If it is questionable you probably shouldnít be in it. That would be a sure reason you would have the expectation of a losing trade. You must have a healthy understanding of when the buyers are jumping in and where to expect resistance. Jump in with the buyers and jump out before resistance is reached. Donít overstay your welcome. This eliminates fear and builds confidence to stay through any minor down swing. Donít take a trade just because it looks like itís going up. Take trades that offer you a high probability of success with plenty of room to the next resistance level.


Lots of good ideas there. I guess Iím starting to see more and more ďshades of grayĒ where the probabilities arenít as clear but there is potential if that makes any sense. I used to not see these possibilities, so with more opportunities comes more questions I guess


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  #199 (permalink)
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snax View Post
Lots of good ideas there. I guess Iím starting to see more and more ďshades of grayĒ where the probabilities arenít as clear but there is potential if that makes any sense. I used to not see these possibilities, so with more opportunities comes more questions I guess


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Absolutely. This is a journey, not a destination. Everyday you will be tested. Just when you think you have acquired understanding, you will be faced with a new challenge. Best thing to do is to journal, which Iím sure youíve heard many times. Write down what you think you did wrong and what you do not want to do again. What made you do it. How you felt before you did it. How you can overcome it, the action, the feeling etc. Express anger if you have to. Write it all down and go over your journal as often as you can and you will start forming new habits. Enjoy the journey, after all, trading should be fun and enjoyable. Itís your business. If you donít learn to enjoy your business, success is difficult. I hope this helps.

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snax View Post
Lots of good ideas there. I guess Iím starting to see more and more ďshades of grayĒ where the probabilities arenít as clear but there is potential if that makes any sense. I used to not see these possibilities, so with more opportunities comes more questions I guess


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My biggest challenge as a trader is in trying to figure out if the current trade I'm in is likely to be a winner or loser (LOL). I have experienced many instances in which a trade I surely thought was going to be a loser became a winner, and vice versa. It particularly sucks when a trade comes within mere points of my profit target and reverses to stop me out- but my philosophy now is "tough shit." I had an idea, I executed the trade, and I really don't know if it's going to work or not.. It's out of my hands. It either works or it doesn't. Thankfully I'm not too concerned with the outcome of one particular trade. I have faith that if I always stick to my stops and targets, I will come out positive eventually. Not to mention, it's a consistent approach and I never regret closing a trade too early. I can't stand that. There's evidence of it in my first journal.

This is not to say that I don't think that there's not valuable MGI that should be considered while in a trade, but this is more of a measure to compensate for my own poor judgement / psychology while in a trade. Right now I obviously have quite a black and white view of exits and it is subject to change as I grow, but nothing has taught me more to hold my winners than obeying my stop loss rule. I will stick to this rule until I realize that in all likelihood that what I'm doing won't pan out in the long run and that I need to be more flexible with my exits.. I will say, it's been very promising so far. It keeps me in trades.

Just thought I'd share this one last time. I share because it made a huge difference for me, but I acknowledge that it may not be well suited to you and you have your own way. Because I have this rule, my weakness is "overstaying my welcome." I did have a winning trade on my hands today, I just chose to hold out longer.

There's nothing to think about.

- Mark Douglas
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