Must see video.....seriously.....




Ron


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South Korea, who have conducted 360k tests (26 positive / 1,000 tests). are among the countries which are closest to having identified all true cases. Taking an aggressive death approach of 7 days (it can be 2 to 8 weeks from symptoms to death) - their mortality rate is 1.5% (todays death toll = 126. 8,565 confirmed cases 7 days ago). Each day further out i.e 8, 9, 10 results in a higher mortality rate.



Other countries with high testing rates (less than 12 positives / 1,000 tests) are Taiwan, Belarus, UAE, Vietnam, Singapore and Bahrain. Their combined mortality rate is 1.0% (9 deaths, and 912 confirmed cases 7 days ago). Small numbers to be sure.



Using the same basis. US has 784 deaths and 7 days ago 9,415 cases. That's 8.3%. This points to a massive under capture of true cases.

Assuming a 1.4% death rate and 15% daily growth it's 150k true cases today, if its a 1.0% death rate and 30% daily growth its 470k today. If a more accurate offset is 10 days, rather than 7 days from onset to death, then true cases are even higher again.



I wonder how many of the actual unconfirmed (mostly mild / asymptomatic) are self isolating?



The US is screwed in terms of containing covid.



Due to piss-poor management it would seem the US's only hope is the discovery of a quick cure vaccine.



in absence of a vaccine some will say there is a case to just to get on with it for the sake of the economy and take the 1.6m+/- deaths (assuming half the country is infected at 1% mortality), rather than being half-assed with a lockdown. For context 2.4m+ US die each year anyway. Covid just speeds that process up for many of them. Hard to say what the net effect of covid deaths is after you take into account those who's number was already up.

Refrigerated semi trailer for dead bodies, NYC Hospital.....

Video

https://www.nytimes.com/video/nyregion/100000007052136/coronavirus-elmhurst-hospital-queens.html?referringSource=articleShare

Ron


Sent from my iPhone using futures.io

The U.S. now leads the world in confirmed coronavirus cases.

Scientists warned that the United States someday would become the country hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic. That moment arrived on Thursday.

In the United States, at least 81,321 people are known to have been infected with the coronavirus, including more than 1,000 deaths — more cases than China, Italy or any other country has seen, according to data gathered by The New York Times.