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South Korea, who have conducted 360k tests (26 positive / 1,000 tests). are among the countries which are closest to having identified all true cases. Taking an aggressive death approach of 7 days (it can be 2 to 8 weeks from symptoms to death) - their mortality rate is 1.5% (todays death toll = 126. 8,565 confirmed cases 7 days ago). Each day further out i.e 8, 9, 10 results in a higher mortality rate.
Other countries with high testing rates (less than 12 positives / 1,000 tests) are Taiwan, Belarus, UAE, Vietnam, Singapore and Bahrain. Their combined mortality rate is 1.0% (9 deaths, and 912 confirmed cases 7 days ago). Small numbers to be sure.
Using the same basis. US has 784 deaths and 7 days ago 9,415 cases. That's 8.3%. This points to a massive under capture of true cases.
Assuming a 1.4% death rate and 15% daily growth it's 150k true cases today, if its a 1.0% death rate and 30% daily growth its 470k today. If a more accurate offset is 10 days, rather than 7 days from onset to death, then true cases are even higher again.
I wonder how many of the actual unconfirmed (mostly mild / asymptomatic) are self isolating?
The US is screwed in terms of containing covid.
Due to piss-poor management it would seem the US's only hope is the discovery of a quick cure vaccine.
in absence of a vaccine some will say there is a case to just to get on with it for the sake of the economy and take the 1.6m+/- deaths (assuming half the country is infected at 1% mortality), rather than being half-assed with a lockdown. For context 2.4m+ US die each year anyway. Covid just speeds that process up for many of them. Hard to say what the net effect of covid deaths is after you take into account those who's number was already up.
Public monitoring site is down, my contacts who are doctors suspect that there is "Stage 3" break out in some cities already. Stage 3 means we can find an infected person in city that can not recall or tell where he might have got it from and there is nothing in his history that makes it evident for one tracing it back.
Lock down has been on for more than week already, it was called "Janata Curfew" which was slightly more moderate, yesterday it was case of extending it by 21 more days and making it more stricter, my view is that it will be again extended in period till somewhere mid Jun in one way or another. Its more like they have to, we have less than 100k critical beds in entire country of 1.3 bn, and approx 20% population over 50.
Our problem is that we are late by 4 weeks, I also do think that we are in for some horrible time for at least 6 more months, especially when this virus makes come back after summer. Which RNA based flue viruses do with bit of mutation. (Your usual cold virus is also RNA based which mutates every single year and infects you again)
Saving grace is that we now have testing kit produced locally, news came out just this morning about this. Which should improve our rate of testing which was 1 per 1 million till today. Pathetic right? But the problem was testing kit was imported before this and its really not that easy to get.
All in all, hard steps are taken and they will have to keep at it for 6 months, only necessary supply lines are kept live and everything else is shutdown. Majority of public is also very cordially following this, its just that there are always some buffoons somewhere who think just because they are young they are immune. Actually this has become bit of problem as some people just refuse to take precautions and follow government orders, that's where police is coming in and eventually military will too.
I'm hoping for best, we are still relatively safe till numbers are not in thousands and people are not panicking.
