I'm absolutely devastated, don't know where I'm heading now - futures io
futures io futures trading



I'm absolutely devastated, don't know where I'm heading now


Discussion in Traders Hideout

Updated by bobwest
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one syswizard with 11 posts (10 thanks)
    2. looks_two jmh13 with 9 posts (4 thanks)
    3. looks_3 CricStands with 6 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 LiveStream with 6 posts (0 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one wldman with 30.0 thanks per post
    2. looks_two MiniP with 6.7 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Artfldgr with 4.0 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 kevinkdog with 3.0 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 13,939 views
    2. thumb_up 272 thanks given
    3. group 667 followers
    1. forum 137 replies
    2. attach_file 7 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 100,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

I'm absolutely devastated, don't know where I'm heading now

(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
Legendary Embracer of Uncertainty
Indianoplace, IN
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart
Broker: CQG
Trading: All Micros, especially the ones that move
 
Rrrracer's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,181 since Feb 2017
Thanks: 14,590 given, 8,111 received


MiniP View Post
well I don't trade options so I won't be able to help out to much but a few things stick out to me.

It seems you are having a hard time explaining your system, if you can't explain your system to a child in elementary school then you don't really understand it.

Second if you are waiting on pivot points you are getting old info. pivots are a lagging indicator ( they all are). If you solely rely on these I would suggest you learn P/A or find a better way to look for entries.

third, you say you are taking trades of candlestick patterns, which ones work and which one's don't? Your play book could be to big focus on one trade I for one almsot take all my trades off a p/b and engulf its what I like to trade and I basically have one trade. One or two is more then enough to make some great money don't try to do to much.

forth, you shouldn't try to predict the market, you only should be trying to find entries that go with the market.

-P

@MiniP, these are all great points. So true what you say about your basic trades, that's really all one needs other than size and patience lol.

You just gave me a great idea for a poll or something like that. Thanks man.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Rrrracer for this post:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Cumulative Bid/Ask Chart resets after 2Billion
MultiCharts
Is your daily return predetermined?
Psychology and Money Management
DataLoader- incorrect cumulative values for other symbols
MultiCharts
Thinkorswim poor order execution?
Brokers
TOS Custom Implied Volatility Rank Watchlist/Scanner Column
ThinkOrSwim
 
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
Tel Aviv, Israel
 
 
Posts: 5 since Jan 2018
Thanks: 1 given, 10 received


cleanlogic View Post
Maybe it stopped working because the conditions of the market changed (but I don't really see what could have changed since 2016). Maybe you never really had an edge in the first place and it was just luck (overfitting bias). Also if you blew up your account maybe your risk management wasn't that great. Did you blow up your account selling options?

Luck wouldn't last for more than 2 years straight.

No I'm not an option seller, I'm an options buyer.
I blew up my account through a series of failed trades. Obviously I made a mistake of going a little too hard to "recover" myself on trades I thought were gonna be certain winners because they checked all my requirements. But I lost miserably.

I did try option selling because I've been told the edge is in favor of Option sellers, but the risk is quite high + the profit% is lame unless you sell naked contracts, and the risk isn't worth it.

What could have changed? I can't put my finger on one thing

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to OliverB for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
Europe
 
 
Posts: 4 since Mar 2019
Thanks: 0 given, 9 received


Hard to tell without knowing your strategy. Were you day trading? Swing trading? How many trades per year? How much did you risk per trade?
Have you backtested your strategy with prior data? To determine if your strategy was luck or not you need to backtest it and run it against a random coin flip strategy.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to cleanlogic for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Calgary, Alberta
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
JonnyBoy's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,339 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 523 given, 2,921 received


OliverB View Post
Hi.

I've been an options ETF trader for the past 5 years and have done quite well.

I developed my own trading systems and it worked.
2016-2018 I've been on a roll.
2019 was a complete turnover for me, especially the second half.

The stock market stopped making any sense for me, my technical analysis failed me time after time and I blew up my account.

I don't know what changed, but what I know is no longer relevant. I took a step back and try paper-trading, but to no avail. Still failing hard.

I tried devising new trading methods. Day trading, scalping, short term swings etc etc.
If I applied it back on past markets? BRILLIANT. 2019 onward? FAIL. None seem to be working because it all relies on my past technical analysis.

I'm seriously broken. Broke too.
Trading is my living, I don't have any other skills and don't know anything else. This is all I've got...

Where do I go from here? What can I do? Where can I learn working strategies to work with?
I feel like I'm on square one with no trading experience.

Any tips or advice are welcome.

I have mentioned this in a few threads but I and many other traders would probably agree, there was something that appeared to change in the market last year. I found it exceptionally difficult, especially in the last 1/4.

However, I do not rely on technical analysis because technical analysis doesn't work, especially when it's not evidence based. Before traders jump on that statement about TA I advise you to read the book by David Aronson "Evidence Based Technical Analysis" - he debunks most of TA as worse than wrong, but also shows you some ways to evaluate a method via statistical test that eliminates data mining bias.

With that said, my system is based purely and only on volume - I still limped home for the last 3 months of 2019! I am not sure I can even put my finger on what it was that had changed, but what used to work or had a high probability of working really struggled to make an impact. This year has been much better.

I like to think that the repo, or Fed meddling was the cause but they meddle with the market all of the time so I just can't put my finger on it.

My advice is to read David's book. It might provide you with some ways to re-assess your technical analysis.

--------------------------------------------------------
- Trade what you see. Invest in what you believe -
--------------------------------------------------------
Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to JonnyBoy for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Chicago Illinois USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Broker: IB, ToS
Trading: /ES, US Equities/Options
 
wldman's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,226 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 1,879 given, 7,967 received


OliverB View Post
Hi.

I've been an options ETF trader for the past 5 years and have done quite well.

I developed my own trading systems and it worked.
2016-2018 I've been on a roll.
2019 was a complete turnover for me, especially the second half.

The stock market stopped making any sense for me, my technical analysis failed me time after time and I blew up my account.

I don't know what changed, but what I know is no longer relevant. I took a step back and try paper-trading, but to no avail. Still failing hard.

I tried devising new trading methods. Day trading, scalping, short term swings etc etc.
If I applied it back on past markets? BRILLIANT. 2019 onward? FAIL. None seem to be working because it all relies on my past technical analysis.

I'm seriously broken. Broke too.
Trading is my living, I don't have any other skills and don't know anything else. This is all I've got...

Where do I go from here? What can I do? Where can I learn working strategies to work with?
I feel like I'm on square one with no trading experience.

Any tips or advice are welcome.

There are only two options at this time. Really only one. You persevere. Endure what you have to in order to re-establish your vocation and you press forward. Learn from this, but never dwell on it. Press forward be diligent and never give up.

So, one of the stories I've never shared on FIO:

My worst period as a trader was brought about by a true Black Swan event. I was terrified that at any moment the risk manager would be in my crowd to escort me upstairs. I had some reserve in a personal account, but It was never closer to being over. Side note...you have not really seen the worst until your net liquidation sails past zero.

A huge trader, an industry legend, had agreed to back me...I had no idea about this support. It was offered because of something that I did totally not related to business. But not knowing who had my back I started to work nights and weekends delivering food for my friend Jimmy at Buona Beef. Nothing mattered other than providing for the family and staying in the game. From that place of humility, I learned more about myself and how to trade than any other time.

Back on the horse cowboy.

-Dan

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #16 (permalink)
Europe
 
 
Posts: 4 since Mar 2019
Thanks: 0 given, 9 received


OliverB View Post
Luck wouldn't last for more than 2 years straight.

Unfortunately, yes it can. Also blowing up your account after a few trades should never happen. If it does it means you took way too much risk. You should always be prepared to see your strategy stop working. I personnally doubt you can have a real edge using trendlines, macd and pivot points. You should read the book jonnyboy advised you to read. From the table of contents I can already tell it will help you understand all the biases you fell into. You should also read about risk management and how to avoid the risk of ruin.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to cleanlogic for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #17 (permalink)
Argentina
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja
Broker: Ninja
Trading: DC
 
Posts: 262 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 17 given, 117 received

My experience with back testing is it looks great on the back testing but once applied to the current markets it usually fails. If you believe that the markets are dynamic and random what worked in the past has a 50/50 chance of working in the future. Also, It appears that the platform vendors are the people who make out with back testing programs.
Just my 2 cents probably worth 1/2 cents.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jmh13 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #18 (permalink)
Europe
 
 
Posts: 4 since Mar 2019
Thanks: 0 given, 9 received


jmh13 View Post
My experience with back testing is it looks great on the back testing but once applied to the current markets it usually fails. If you believe that the markets are dynamic and random what worked in the past has a 50/50 chance of working in the future. Also, It appears that the platform vendors are the people who make out with back testing programs.
Just my 2 cents probably worth 1/2 cents.

Exactly, there are many pitfalls in backtesting. Creating a profitable system using backtesting on price series is very difficult and can only be done by those who really know what they are doing. Many people will show you incredible backtest performance but it doesn't mean the strategy will work live.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to cleanlogic for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #19 (permalink)
Argentina
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja
Broker: Ninja
Trading: DC
 
Posts: 262 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 17 given, 117 received

Well said cleanlogic.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #20 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Calgary, Alberta
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
JonnyBoy's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,339 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 523 given, 2,921 received



cleanlogic View Post
Exactly, there are many pitfalls in backtesting. Creating a profitable system using backtesting on price series is very difficult and can only be done by those who really know what they are doing. Many people will show you incredible backtest performance but it doesn't mean the strategy will work live.

I agree. I believe back testing has a place, but very few profitable back tested strategies are ever profitable walking forward and if you bring exotic bar types into the equation...forget about it.

--------------------------------------------------------
- Trade what you see. Invest in what you believe -
--------------------------------------------------------
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to JonnyBoy for this post:


futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout > I'm absolutely devastated, don't know where I'm heading now

« Hello! | Reviews »

February 13, 2020


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

Introducing Edge Pools: Prop Pricing Model w/Edge Clear

Jul 9
 

Every journal equals ten meals for the hungry

Now
     



Copyright © 2020 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts