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how do you think markets work?
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how do you think markets work?

  #1 (permalink)
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wny
 
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how do you think markets work?

A few weeks back I quit my job as the monkey boy on a Citi USD/JPY option desk...I'm a college dropout and basically bullshitted my way into the position to start with, never was going to be a trader there though. Haven't been able to trade in 2 years because of compliance..and I'm hungry as fuck to trade.
So how do you believe global capital flows is essentially what I'm asking...
Here are two rough drafts, one for global markets and one for equity markets.

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
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In this bleak economic environment, it amazes me people quit their jobs and gamble their savings to chase a dream which is so heavily skewed against them. Did you drop out of college or flunk out?

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  #4 (permalink)
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Responding to the drafts.

Draft one: Intermarket relationships

- cds/ bons
- bonds/ currencies

are missing.

There are CDS on sovereign risk (remember Greece). There is a direct linkage between bonds and commodities, as they are alternatives for an investor.

Draft Two : Factors that influence share price

Need to add currencies (for export driven companies, or those dependant on imports), economic indicators, competitors, etc.

I do not see that the drafts are anyhow related to capital flows.

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  #5 (permalink)
Big game hunter
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darthtrader3.6 View Post
So how do you believe global capital flows is essentially what I'm asking...
.

With due respect , what difference does it make ? Is it a way to develop an edge ? Do you have an edge ? Do you believe you ( and all of us ) need an edge ?

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You are essentially talking about correlation, right? There should be an edge there somewhere, but I haven't had any luck with it.

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  #7 (permalink)
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vegasfoster View Post
You are essentially talking about correlation, right? There should be an edge there somewhere, but I haven't had any luck with it.

There are two main problems with correlations:

1. Correlations between the prices of tradeable instruments are permanently changing, because there are no linear, simple relationships. The markets show a complex, non-linear behaviour.

2. Even if there is a statistically sginificant correlation, it is not easy to determine which of the correlated instruments is leading and which is lagging. Often the correlation is coincidental, which does not help a lot.

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  #8 (permalink)
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Zoethecus View Post
In this bleak economic environment, it amazes me people quit their jobs and gamble their savings to chase a dream which is so heavily skewed against them. Did you drop out of college or flunk out?

I dropped out of CS at the University of Pittsburgh in 2000 for a 70k a year javascript job i bullshitted my way into(worked at a 20 person financial place that managed local retirement funds in college managing basically a fake database..or in other words I worked for a really smart 70yo with 2 moron sons who ran the business and only had business because daddy had a pretty sick social network) a massive venture capital funded(beyond sillican valley excess, instead of a swipe badge they had a thumb print scanner to get in) No surprise sitting here now they closed 6 months later but at the time I felt like God and was 22.
Citi practically shuffled their entire FX derivatives business upstate from wallstreet when the share price was getting crushed in the storm then started moving stuff back after the bailout...I loved the crisis because I thought it was just a matter of time before I could bluff my way into USD/JYP institutional FX options trader but after the bailout there was no place to go beyond monkey boy for NYC douchebags remotely. I fucked myself also though because I don't play golf and think its as fun as watching grass grow, literally..
What have you done to throw stones? "day trading" your own cash is straight out banned the moment you are hired at a big bank and sign the dotted line ..
Trying to swing trade through institutional compliance is beyond impossible stop wise. Even trying to average into SPY positions during the crisis was beyond absurd time wise, oh yea and I had to trade through citi's bullshit retail platform...they aren't going to let you give business to the competition..
so basically fuck off son..I didn't post this to get your opinion.

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  #9 (permalink)
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ar
 
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darthtrader3.6 View Post
I dropped out of CS at the University of Pittsburgh in 2000 for a 70k a year javascript job i bullshitted my way into(worked at a 20 person financial place that managed local retirement funds in college managing basically a fake database..or in other words I worked for a really smart 70yo with 2 moron sons who ran the business and only had business because daddy had a pretty sick social network) a massive venture capital funded(beyond sillican valley excess, instead of a swipe badge they had a thumb print scanner to get in) No surprise sitting here now they closed 6 months later but at the time I felt like God and was 22.
Citi practically shuffled their entire FX derivatives business upstate from wallstreet when the share price was getting crushed in the storm then started moving stuff back after the bailout...I loved the crisis because I thought it was just a matter of time before I could bluff my way into USD/JYP institutional FX options trader but after the bailout there was no place to go beyond monkey boy for NYC douchebags remotely. I fucked myself also though because I don't play golf and think its as fun as watching grass grow, literally..
What have you done to throw stones? "day trading" your own cash is straight out banned the moment you are hired at a big bank and sign the dotted line ..
Trying to swing trade through institutional compliance is beyond impossible stop wise. Even trying to average into SPY positions during the crisis was beyond absurd time wise, oh yea and I had to trade through citi's bullshit retail platform...they aren't going to let you give business to the competition..
so basically fuck off son..I didn't post this to get your opinion.

I get the feeling you do a lot of bull shitting...........................................................................

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  #10 (permalink)
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From your posts I respect you Fat Tails...I made this post to try to spark an interesting discussion beyond the same old lame single time series analysis stuff.
If you think what I posted is nonsense then put your knowledge on the line and draw up your own
This is just a rough draft.
This is an insanely complex problem to even vaguely get a glimpse of...odds are neither of us have a clue.
What I hope to spark with this post is we can collude brain power wise here to draw some vague conclusion and then prune down to find something interesting...
CDS/Bonds were not included because of course there is an entire 3rd dimension to what i posted, "volatility"...
This mysterious excitation input to a model that has a feedback input to itself.
Most here are not bond traders so its probably best to ignore that right here...




Fat Tails View Post
Responding to the drafts.

Draft one: Intermarket relationships

- cds/ bons
- bonds/ currencies

are missing.

There are CDS on sovereign risk (remember Greece). There is a direct linkage between bonds and commodities, as they are alternatives for an investor.

Draft Two : Factors that influence share price

Need to add currencies (for export driven companies, or those dependant on imports), economic indicators, competitors, etc.

I do not see that the drafts are anyhow related to capital flows.


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