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So the crisis is over?
Started:August 2nd, 2009 (04:44 PM) by pedroxp Views / Replies:655 / 4
Last Reply:August 4th, 2009 (03:38 AM) Attachments:0

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View Poll Results: Do you think the financial crisis is over?
Of course not! It will go more down! 2 11.11%
Just up for short term and then down again! 13 72.22%
Yes, we've reached the bottom some time ago, time to go up! 3 16.67%
I have no idea! 0 0%
Voters: 18. You may not vote on this poll

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So the crisis is over?

Old August 2nd, 2009, 04:44 PM   #1 (permalink)
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So the crisis is over?

So, I've been wondering what do you guys think of the markets nowadays, Is the crisis over ? Do you think It's time do start buying?

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Old August 3rd, 2009, 03:31 AM   #2 (permalink)
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not real sure of the differences between 1 and 2, so i will select 2 because i believe this rally will end, and end hard, and we'll come back down once again after the second wave or everything hits.

then just as everyone exits it will signal capitulation and that will be our bottom.

"Let us be thankful for the fools. But for them the rest of us could not succeed." - Mark Twain

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Old August 3rd, 2009, 10:56 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Its going down at some point we all know that just based on the fundamentals. the wild card is the government though. they seem to have their paws in every little corner of the economy, It could be that market is rising because government intervention has taken the risk out of things.

Inflation could cause us to rise as well. If oil goes back to 100+ the S&P will certainly follow. and with trillions in cheap dollars flying around the world why not just bid up the market with funny money.

I think it will all come crashing down honestly but while it doesn't ill keep riding it higher.


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Old August 4th, 2009, 01:23 AM   #4 (permalink)
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The times I've lost money in the past year are when I've let my macro opinions color my trading. I'm slowly learning to check my opinion at the door and follow price action. So the answer to your question is "I have no idea!" and if I do I'm trying to block it out .

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Old August 4th, 2009, 03:38 AM   #5 (permalink)
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For active trading the long term stuff doesn't matter too much. I think most here play in less than day time frames.

But it is always fun to try to predict.
I just sold the last of my 'investment' longer term stuff where I try to stay with the intermediate trend. It is getting risky now IMO.

I am still in the camp that we 'might' get a continuation of the current C wave of this bear market rally into the 1050ish (until October??). But we are now close to 38% retracement, so the rally may end here any moment.

Then I expect we go down again to new lows well below March.
IMO the dollar will be key in the start of the decline. The dollar is due for a (last?) bounce, and then stocks and commodities should start to go down.
Then longer term in about 6 months to a year? more panic and money printing... dollar depreciation and surge in inflation.

I'll revise my view and get bullish when the S&P breaches 1200.

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