Its going down at some point we all know that just based on the fundamentals. the wild card is the government though. they seem to have their paws in every little corner of the economy, It could be that market is rising because government intervention has taken the risk out of things.
Inflation could cause us to rise as well. If oil goes back to 100+ the S&P will certainly follow. and with trillions in cheap dollars flying around the world why not just bid up the market with funny money.
I think it will all come crashing down honestly but while it doesn't ill keep riding it higher.
The times I've lost money in the past year are when I've let my macro opinions color my trading. I'm slowly learning to check my opinion at the door and follow price action. So the answer to your question is "I have no idea!" and if I do I'm trying to block it out .
For active trading the long term stuff doesn't matter too much. I think most here play in less than day time frames.
But it is always fun to try to predict.
I just sold the last of my 'investment' longer term stuff where I try to stay with the intermediate trend. It is getting risky now IMO.
I am still in the camp that we 'might' get a continuation of the current C wave of this bear market rally into the 1050ish (until October??). But we are now close to 38% retracement, so the rally may end here any moment.
Then I expect we go down again to new lows well below March.
IMO the dollar will be key in the start of the decline. The dollar is due for a (last?) bounce, and then stocks and commodities should start to go down.
Then longer term in about 6 months to a year? more panic and money printing... dollar depreciation and surge in inflation.
I'll revise my view and get bullish when the S&P breaches 1200.