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Recessions question


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Recessions question

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  #1 (permalink)
Denver, Colorado
 
 
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Hey. I'm new here, I couldn't find a forum for general questions, so I hope this is an appropriate place for this one.

I need help figuring out what a "recession" is actually made of. Can someone help me understand this. Officially, the Early 2000s Recession was from March, 2001 to November 2001 (highlighted square), but as you see in the chart, the stock market continued declining for about another year after that (highlighted circle). Why is that subsequent period not considered part of that recession?

Unlike the Great recession around 2018 which officially lasted from Dec 2007ĖJune 2009, (1 year and 6 months) which does officially capture the whole move down:


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  #3 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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You might find some information in these PDFs useful.

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Recessions question-economic_commentary-credit_trends.pdf   Recessions question-rok-.pdf  
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  #4 (permalink)
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anycolour View Post
Hey. I'm new here, I couldn't find a forum for general questions, so I hope this is an appropriate place for this one.

I need help figuring out what a "recession" is actually made of. Can someone help me understand this. Officially, the Early 2000s Recession was from March, 2001 to November 2001 (highlighted square), but as you see in the chart, the stock market continued declining for about another year after that (highlighted circle). Why is that subsequent period not considered part of that recession?

Unlike the Great recession around 2018 which officially lasted from Dec 2007ĖJune 2009, (1 year and 6 months) which does officially capture the whole move down:

There's no necessary connection between the stock market and a recession. Generally, two or more back-to-back quarters of negative growth of the economy (not of the stock market) are involved in a recession, but it can be more complex than that.

From the Wikipedia article on "Recession:"


Quoting 
In a 1974 The New York Times article, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb for defining a recession, one of which was two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.[6] In time, the other rules of thumb were forgotten. Some economists prefer a definition of a 1.5-2 percentage points rise in unemployment within 12 months.[7]

In the United States, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER, a private economic research organization, defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales".[8] Almost universally, academics, economists, policy makers, and businesses refer to the determination by the NBER for the precise dating of a recession's onset and end.

In the United Kingdom, recessions are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonal adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for real GDP,[4][5] with the same definition being used for all other member states of the European Union.[9]

(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession )

The stock market may go down in a recession, or it may go down before the recession starts, and it may start to go up before the recession is over, or it may go down and then up in step with the recession, or it may still be down after the recession in the general economy ends or it may go down and there may not be a recession. There is often some relationship, but it doesn't have to be the same all the time.

So the answer to the question you ask about why a period where the market was down was not considered part of a particular recession is basically, "They are different things, so why not?"

Bob.

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  #5 (permalink)
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To pile on to what Bob said those official recession start dates are released months after the fact. So for a trader it is an autopsy so of what value.

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To pile on to what Bob said those official recession start dates are released months after the fact. So for a trader it is an autopsy so of what value.

Right. Even by the simplest, bare-bones definition of "two down quarters for GDP," which is not the only definition, you won't know it until, well, two quarters -- six months -- have passed, at the very soonest.

It's historical, not current, information.

Bob.

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bobwest View Post
Right. Even by the simplest, bare-bones definition of "two down quarters for GDP," which is not the only definition, you won't know it until, well, two quarters -- six months -- have passed, at the very soonest.

It's historical, not current, information.

Bob.

IMO the next big thing won't be a recession, but much, much worse. Globally our debt has topped $188 trillion dollars. This to me is just incredible and the system won't be fixed with a simple recession next time.

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JonnyBoy View Post
IMO the next big thing won't be a recession, but much, much worse. Globally our debt has topped $188 trillion dollars. This to me is just incredible and the system won't be fixed with a simple recession next time.

Definitely not an MMT guy @JonnyBoy? .

Edit: to elaborate and not seem like a troll. Ha! I definitely lean Mises and Austrian, but in the end Iím a JAG...Just A Guy. Economics is more of a hobby. But itís definitely interesting to watch economic policy around the globe go all-in on more of a top-down approach.

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