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Shhh don't say the "R" word
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Shhh don't say the "R" word

  #1 (permalink)
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Shhh don't say the "R" word

Hey guys,

New topic dominating the news cycle lately -- recession aka the "R" word.

Please vote & discuss our new poll:

Is a recession coming in the next 2 years?

 


Do you think a recession is coming, and how will it affect you?

1) 100% coming in the next 2 years
2) We are talking ourselves into a recession
3) Small sell off nothing more, less than 10%
4) 50/50 not sure
5) I'm stockpiling gold in my basement
6) I'm stockpiling food, water and guns
7) What recession?

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How will a recession affect you?

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
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In the poll, I chose "100% without a doubt," which is not exactly my opinion but is the closest offered.

I think there will be a recession, and that there is no doubt of it -- because recessions do come around, and it has been a very long time since the last one. I think it is probable that there will be one in the next two years, as the poll says. But if I could make reliable, accurate economic predictions, it would be similar to my being able to make reliable, accurate stock market predictions, and I don't do that too well.

So yes, I am sure there will be one, and I do think it will be "soon," but I'm not sure how "soon' that will be. I would not be at all surprised if it came much sooner, simply because of how long it has been.

Now, there can be some politics in this question, which I don't want to get into. All presidents like to take credit for a good economy, and none want the blame for a bad one, and probably most or all of them have no more clue than I have on the subject.

So I don't see it as primarily political, one way or the other. I just think one is due.

This is not a very sophisticated point of view, but then, if I could predict these things I would be already rich and famous, and somehow I'm not.

Bob.

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  #4 (permalink)
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I read a post by Al Brooks a couple weeks ago. He cited some statistic that after an inverted yield curve appears, there is a high probability that a bull market will continue for about 18 months before a recession sets in.

Now, I have no idea how valid that is, but here's my thought. If you're a guy running for President, would you be happy to know that it is highly likely that 1 month after your inauguration a recession will hit the country? How would you like to own that?

Just a thought.....

Mike
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  #5 (permalink)
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I chose not sure. Most the economic data has been mixed bag lately hasnít it? And I think the yield curve inversion isnít the best indication and this time the inversion has been driven by technicals. I.e risk off sentiment mixed with seasonal illiquidity mixed with demand for US 10s in a yield drained world. Anecdotally...I work in a sector that outperforms in growth periods and we are doing really well and have projects booked for the next year or so. But that can fall off really fast as it did in 2006 (for us).

On the other hand recessions are inevitable and a lot can happen in two years so why not? So who knows?

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Everything gets more expensive. Also,there will be a narrative forced down our throats about how much we must suffer because big industry made billions instead of trillions and the S&P is at a number not seen since another number.

What really worries me is the ineptitude of the people pulling the strings to leverage the system in their favour. There just doesn't appear to be anyone with leadership skills nowadays. They are all clamouring for more money, more power, more ego..... more more more. I get that greed is inevitable but there is a certain acceptable magnitude that the system can tolerate. Right now the pigs are not sipping the gravy, they have all jumped into the trough to gorge and are being obscene and unashamed about it.

There is a saying everyone knows:
  1. Hard times create strong men.
  2. Strong men create good times.
  3. Good times create weak men.
  4. Weak men create hard times.

We are in stage 4 I believe. I just try not to watch too much news. Its our kids future that gets affected by all the retard and greed of today. I hope that young people with big ambitions and youthful energy take a stand and bring about positive change that people so desperately need.

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comments

A couple of items: It never crashes when they expect it. (Contrarian investing) This is more like a scary gyrating 4th wave just before the parabolic blow off. Smart money is still long which means the blow off top isn't here yet because that's when they sucker main street in to buy because its going to the moon.

Second is that we are now on credit cycles instead of business cycles. Check out Graham Summers Everything Bubble.
Excellent book about the FED and a very easy read.

The FED was politicized many years ago under Greenspan and the deep state. In a very well documented effort to ensure Obama's election, Timothy Geithner (New York FED) sucked enormous liquidity out of the system that tanked the market and assuring his appointment as Treasury Secretary. If it worked once try it again.

Finally they never know we are in recession for 18 months after it began.

I already have my stockpile of food, water, ammo, gold and silver too. A good boy scout is always prepared....

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Love the poll...

...just to make sure my own bias doesn't fit with the majority ;-)

Obviously, sooner or later, there will be a recession... it's not if, but when (we all know that) what many people don't understand (I didn't either in the past) is that it's a futile undertaking to try to forecast it instead of just react when it happens -not extra credit for been first.

When a guy like Ray Dalio spent the last ten years telling us how the US economy was going to implode, and we saw one of the longest economic expansion in mother history -it tells you something... he didn't trade based on his own bias

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bobwest View Post
In the poll, I chose "100% without a doubt," which is not exactly my opinion but is the closest offered.

I think there will be a recession, and that there is no doubt of it -- because recessions do come around, and it has been a very long time since the last one. I think it is probable that there will be one in the next two years, as the poll says. But if I could make reliable, accurate economic predictions, it would be similar to my being able to make reliable, accurate stock market predictions, and I don't do that too well.

So yes, I am sure there will be one, and I do think it will be "soon," but I'm not sure how "soon' that will be. I would not be at all surprised if it came much sooner, simply because of how long it has been.


Bob.

My thoughts exactly, can add a thousand words, for the hunderds of reasons why, but the result will be the same.

So, What Bob said!

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Big Mike View Post
Do you think a recession is coming, and how will it affect you?

1) 100% coming in the next 2 years
2) We are talking ourselves into a recession
3) Small sell off nothing more, less than 10%
4) 50/50 not sure
5) I'm stockpiling gold in my basement
6) I'm stockpiling food, water and guns
7) What recession?

Great poll question but bad answer options. You need to have answers that are mutually exclusive (ie 1,5,6 could be the same thing!)

I think for Europe, Yes, and for US, Probably and if the US does then probably the whole world does.

"Buy Bonds, Buy Dollars, Wear Diamonds" - Raoul Pal

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