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Shhh don't say the "R" word


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Shhh don't say the "R" word

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  #31 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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SunTrader View Post
Think the topic is meant to be forward looking.

Of course right now things are hunky dory and maybe they stay that way for a good long time into the future? Or not?

hmm ya think?


 
 
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  #32 (permalink)
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Massive l View Post
hmm ya think?

hmm I think, you not so much by your initial reply.

 
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  #33 (permalink)
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SunTrader View Post
hmm I think, you not so much by your initial reply.

You said you think it's meant to be forward looking (obviously) and then you said maybe the market can stay up for a long time but then you said or not...you didn't add anything relevant to the topic

 
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  #34 (permalink)
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Massive l View Post
You said you think it's meant to be forward looking (obviously) and then you said maybe the market can stay up for a long time but then you said or not...you didn't add anything relevant to the topic

I also said:

"My guess late next year."

Even the best of Economists are guessing when they forecast. You said nothing about the future.

"When I see them turn negative I'll be sure to report in this thread." Can't wait.

Then this morning NFP said something: less than estimated mediocre 130k added, plus downward revisions for the two previous months. This years monthly jobs reports are averaging about 70k less per month compared to last year.

I trade short term but keep an eye out down the road. Maybe you don't? Anyway I'll be following the topic to see if anyone else posts something relevant.

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  #35 (permalink)
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SunTrader View Post
I also said:

"My guess late next year."

Even the best of Economists are guessing when they forecast. You said nothing about the future.

"When I see them turn negative I'll be sure to report in this thread." Can't wait.

Then this morning NFP said something: less than estimated mediocre 130k added, plus downward revisions for the two previous months. This years monthly jobs reports are averaging about 70k less per month compared to last year.

I trade short term but keep an eye out down the road. Maybe you don't? Anyway I'll be following the topic to see if anyone else posts something relevant.

My apologies @SunTrader...I've seen quite a few posts from low post counts in threads thinking they are just boosting post count until they get pm capabilities. Anyways...

In regards to forecasting...my forecast right now is market up until further notice. I don't think we'll see a recession for 3 to 5 years.

However, I'm much better at trading than forecasting.

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  #36 (permalink)
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Once upon a time I was paid to estimate the value of real estate. Then the FOMC under Paul Volker came along and totally blew up the fundamental relationships. The lesson I learned was forecasting the future is straightforward as long as the fundamental relationships from the near past remain in place. There is a reason our brains are hard wired for recency bias.

According to the experts the only net cash driving the market up for close to a decade has been corporate buybacks. According to others who get paid to write more and more of that is from proceeds of bond sales. Some see a relationship between successful bond sales and central bank liquidity injections. As in the curious case of the USA markets the last couple of weeks. Federal Reserve became a net buyer of treasuries for the first time in a long time. Elsewhere we read about a huge amount of new corporate debt issued during the same period. I would say something sarcastic about the broker dealer New York banks but why bother.

At some point in time (tin foil hat time) pretty close on the heels of Muller's testimony crushing the media narrative of the POTUS being on Putin's payroll the media outlets controlled by the american oligarchs all started screaming recession. As seems to always be the case we all saw the primary indicators their stories were citing shifting over months and months before they "informed" us that with the market at highs and unemployment at lows we are about to instantly descend into a depression.

My points;
1. As long as the central banks keep printing money and suppressing interest rates corporations will keep borrowing and buying back to keep their stock up. Look at Apple, they are back to 2015 income levels, but with a 25% reduction in shares so the numbers look good. I don't think the tools are out there to forecast when this will end. I mean look at the person taking over the ECB and Peter Pan is still in charge of the BoJ. Good luck figuring out if and when they say stop the madness.
2. As long as the Oligarchs continue to control the media they will shape the message and those who are easily led will think that they are being told the full truth. And please, I really don't care what you think of Trump or Elizabeth Warren or the man in the moon don't tell me Jeff Bezo's and his ilk are not going to influence the narrative. So the consumer, that great driver of the economy is being told that the wolf is at the door. Problem is that you can only play that card so many times because shoppers are not market algos responding to the words "trade talks".

Reality is that for the most part earnings are like the cheerleaders at a football game, exciting , but not that meaningful. Liquidity from buybacks is the key issue. Consumers spend when they have money. The biggest two brakes on that are jobs and interest rates. The Fed's playbook has always been to make borrowing more expensive to put on the brakes. Well we know that won't happen again in my lifetime. Demographics say there are no new pools of qualified workers entering the labor force. After spending a decade laying off everyone they can unemployment keeps dropping. The population participation rate is going up again. Supply chains don't seem to be going overseas right now. So not enough new qualified workers and no major industry collapse providing a surplus of job applicants so I really don't see a major consumer pullback.

My forecast is we just keep muddling along at real close to the zero line. With occasional dips below like 2016 but no fast booms either. Boring and trend less.

Major risks to this are of course a significant new technology that changes things, and I don't mean Apple TV. Or we hit the Ah Ha moment for a major debt collapse that panics and sinks the bond market. I used to think that Tesla and the Shale Drillers would do it but now I am confident the Fed would step in fast. So that leaves China and we will never know until it is over and cleaned up given the Parties total control of the media and internet. So even if Kyle Bass wins his bets with a total news blackout folks like me will only find out well after the fact. Again, same thing, other central banks will step in to minimize the collateral damage to their own economies.

Please point out the gaping holes in my theory. I would much rather have you crush my ego than have me screw up my investment accounts.

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  #37 (permalink)
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I'm mid fifties folks , and with my own life experiences , and some light studies , it's clear to me that recessions over the last forty years were carefully orchestrated/timed . Soon enough , even a blue collar like my self could tell when the next one was coming ! Some thing has changed ! Now at this point one could get into conspiracies about the people at , or near the top running things , and how perhaps some have been exposed , or removed Ö.! R , WHAT R .

 
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  #38 (permalink)
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SEAPEAQQ View Post
I'm mid fifties folks , and with my own life experiences , and some light studies , it's clear to me that recessions over the last forty years were carefully orchestrated/timed . Soon enough , even a blue collar like my self could tell when the next one was coming ! Some thing has changed ! Now at this point one could get into conspiracies about the people at , or near the top running things , and how perhaps some have been exposed , or removed Ö.! R , WHAT R .

No conspiracy. You had an edge in that you could tell when the next turn would be. More and more people made similar observations and soon everyone became an expert. Problem is that the market is efficient so when everyone bcame experts no one was an expert anymore. Its the new normal. People still enjoy embarrassing themselves by loudly proclaiming to be experts and telling the rest of us what the market should be doing. On a long enough timeline they will eventually be right and shout it from the rooftops but in the meantime the rest of us should continue to trade what we see until further notice

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  #39 (permalink)
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  #40 (permalink)
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At best people paid to be economic prognosticators can only look into the future about six months. Anything longer is flipping a coin. The main reports I track are PMI, consumer confidence and Christmas holiday spending. Economics is all about movement of money so when money stops moving recession starts. That will not happen until consumers stop buying out of real or perceived fear. Itís that simple yet complicated.


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