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Shhh don't say the "R" word
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Shhh don't say the "R" word

  #21 (permalink)
Frankfurt Germany
 
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Great poll question but bad answer options. Futures.io is ten years late. Since then there has never been a recovery. Not in Europe, not at all in America.

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  #22 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Salao View Post
So this should change some minds...

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The 2/10 yield curve gets all the attention but according to BofA this curve "dominates" all other curves in its power to predict. The blue line is the 3 month rate 1 year forward (1y3M) versus the current 3 month rate and the slope is a reflection of the outlook for central bank policy.

I agree with your chart, and have seen something similair elsewhere. (also the 2/10 is sending a similar message). Problem is this shows 1y3m as being negative. At least in the US that's not the case. Sep20/Oct20/Nov20 Fed Funds futures had an average settlement last night of 98.92 which implies the 1y3m Fed Fund Rate to be 1.08* or am I missing something?

*edit Sep20 Eurodolloars settled 98.71 so 1y3m LIBOR is 1.29


Last edited by SMCJB; August 28th, 2019 at 12:18 PM. Reason: edit Sep20 Eurodolloars settled 98,71 so 1y3m LIBOR is 1.29
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  #23 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
I agree with your chart, and have seen something similair elsewhere. (also the 2/10 is sending a similar message). Problem is this shows 1y3m as being negative. At least in the US that's not the case. Sep20/Oct20/Nov20 Fed Funds futures had an average settlement last night of 98.92 which implies the 1y3m Fed Fund Rate to be 1.08* or am I missing something?

*edit Sep20 Eurodolloars settled 98.71 so 1y3m LIBOR is 1.29

Hey SMCJB! The chart shows the difference between the 1y forward projection of the yield for a 3 month UST versus the current yield on a 3 month UST. So the fed funds rate isn't a direct input here but the outlook on fed policy will influence that 1y forward projection on the 3 month treasury. I think that answers your question?

Although the chart is interesting to look at I posted it mostly tongue in cheek due to yield curve mania. I thought it sort of funny how a line cross on a chart helped create a type of frenzy. I mean it's not like a line cross on a chart has ever made me do anything stupid...ahem!

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Last edited by Salao; August 28th, 2019 at 02:27 PM. Reason: Accidentally quoted post twice
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  #24 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Salao View Post
Hey SMCJB! The chart shows the difference between the 1y forward projection of the yield for a 3 month UST versus the current yield on a 3 month UST. So the fed funds rate isn't a direct input here but the outlook on fed policy will influence that 1y forward projection on the 3 month treasury. I think that answers your question?

Yes. Brain fart on my behalf. I was looking at absolute levels not the spread.

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  #25 (permalink)
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MT4Survivor View Post
Great poll question but bad answer options. Futures.io is ten years late.

Please contribute in a positive way here:
https://futures.io/elite-circle/47729-next-new-poll-ideas.html

The poll and its answers were taken from that thread.

Mike

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  #26 (permalink)
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I voted for "talking ourselves into it" because whatever happens, that will be true. macroeconomics being what it is and all...

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  #27 (permalink)
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A broken clock is right twice a day. So you should talk up a recession at least twice in 12 years

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  #28 (permalink)
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"Booms follow busts follow booms". "It is out there" and "Timing is everything" all come to mind.

Also "The markets don't like uncertainty".

Us traders do because it brings volatility. But not so much investors or the companies they invest in.

Twitter tantrums,especially trade related, are taking a toll. Once the consumer starts pulling back ..... (one more cliche) the "chit will hit the fan".

My guess late next year.

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  #29 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Volume ratios are still positive. Last two times they were negative was end of 2007 and beginning of 1999. Hard to wrap my head around but I think indices still have room to grow. When I see them turn negative I'll be sure to report in this thread.

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  #30 (permalink)
Boca Raton, FL
 
 
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Think the topic is meant to be forward looking.

Of course right now things are hunky dory and maybe they stay that way for a good long time into the future? Or not?

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