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Shhh don't say the "R" word


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Shhh don't say the "R" word

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  #11 (permalink)
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With the state of the world economy, and also the trade war the way it is right now, it seems increasingly likely for a big correction, and longer term, possibly recession.

This is especially true with the increasing rhetoric and tariff actions over the past month - the chance of a deal is looking increasingly unlikely.

Several countries are on the brink of recession already even today; long term outlook does not look good!

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  #12 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Hey guys,

New topic dominating the news cycle lately -- recession aka the "R" word.

Please vote & discuss our new poll:



Do you think a recession is coming, and how will it affect you?

1) 100% coming in the next 2 years
2) We are talking ourselves into a recession
3) Small sell off nothing more, less than 10%
4) 50/50 not sure
5) I'm stockpiling gold in my basement
6) I'm stockpiling food, water and guns
7) What recession?






How will a recession affect you?

Mike



I agree 100% with Morpheus.

 
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  #13 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Great poll question but bad answer options. You need to have answers that are mutually exclusive (ie 1,5,6 could be the same thing!)

I think for Europe, Yes, and for US, Probably and if the US does then probably the whole world does.

"Buy Bonds, Buy Dollars, Wear Diamonds" - Raoul Pal

Appreciate the feedback, please suggest poll topics including possible answers here:



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  #14 (permalink)
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Media has scared all of us in thinking that there will be recession( due to political reasons) . With so much technological advancement in the USA, I don't see that happening unless people are getting more scared and get out of the market and start buying bonds , Gold Silver etc.,


 
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  #15 (permalink)
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what if we don't have recessions any more? Now I'm not talking about sell offs, I'm talking a full on recession
like 08 or other years. Is it possible ?? In a perfect world it actually might be, with the correct policy's I honestly think it could happen.. might sound a little pipe dreamy but take a look at this year..

Employment is great
Consumer spending and saving is up
Consumer confidence just came in at a high
Markets are up double digits this year

but on the flip side the housing market seems to be at a full steam ahead my house with out the complete reno is up 15% this year, I do think it will get to a point where people aren't going to want to buy houses at these crazy prices on average homes.

Really none of us know, the media needs something to talk about to fill up time on there programs, we could break 3000 tomorrow and some would still run recession headlines

-P

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  #16 (permalink)
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yeskannan View Post
Media has scared all of us in thinking that there will be recession( due to political reasons)

It's not the media (or their alleged politics!). The Bond Market has an inverted yield curve and Eurodollar Futures are trading at multi year highs. These are all reliable predictors for a slow down and potentially a full recession

yeskannan View Post
With so much technological advancement in the USA

I think the question of the US is an interesting one. Recently saw Powell reference Brexit and Europe in his fed speech but his mandate is supposed to be the US economy. The problem is the super strong dollar is causing problems for the rest of the world and we are all very connected.

yeskannan View Post
I don't see that happening unless people are getting more scared and get out of the market and start buying bonds , Gold Silver etc.,

Hmmm... Bonds & Gold already at multi year highs.... Stockmarket now 5% off recent (all-time highs) ... maybe thats already happening...

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  #17 (permalink)
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So that we are all talking about the same thing. A recession is defined usually as

"a contraction in the GDP for six months (two consecutive quarters) or longer."

It's not stock market dependent!

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  #18 (permalink)
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MiniP View Post
what if we don't have recessions any more? Now I'm not talking about sell offs, I'm talking a full on recession
like 08 or other years. Is it possible ?? In a perfect world it actually might be, with the correct policy's I honestly think it could happen.. might sound a little pipe dreamy but take a look at this year..

Employment is great
Consumer spending and saving is up
Consumer confidence just came in at a high
Markets are up double digits this year

but on the flip side the housing market seems to be at a full steam ahead my house with out the complete reno is up 15% this year, I do think it will get to a point where people aren't going to want to buy houses at these crazy prices on average homes.

Really none of us know, the media needs something to talk about to fill up time on there programs, we could break 3000 tomorrow and some would still run recession headlines

-P

I don't think anyone can truly predict when a recession (or any other major economic event) will happen. I've just seen a lot of them, usually unexpected, and I think they will continue to be unexpected.

I do know that, every time I can recall anyway, everything looked rosier at what turned out to be the top. By the time trouble actually appeared, things had passed their peak, but no one believed it. (Which is one bright spot for the economy today -- suddenly we are seeing a lot of news about "the coming recession," just as if we knew all about it. )

My personal opinion, which buys you absolutely nothing (and is correctly priced ) is that neither politics, nor the media, nor good news/bad news will tell anyone much until it is a bit too late to benefit. With that said, it's been quite a long time (2008) and no boom goes on forever.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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  #19 (permalink)
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The fact that a large population seems to expect a recession leads me to believe it will be delayed further. Folks expecting a recession are keeping dollars on the sideline which means they are potential buyers/demand to keep pushing higher.

Or maybe it's just the brilliant folks who are anticipating it and they a tad early.

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So this should change some minds...



The 2/10 yield curve gets all the attention but according to BofA this curve "dominates" all other curves in its power to predict. The blue line is the 3 month rate 1 year forward (1y3M) versus the current 3 month rate and the slope is a reflection of the outlook for central bank policy.

Edit: tongue in cheek post.

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April 16, 2020


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