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I'm in deep S@$% now.


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I'm in deep S@$% now.

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  #1 (permalink)
 barabas 
Chicago IL USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradestation
Broker: Tradestation
Trading: ES,NQ, CL
 
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Posts: 110 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 102 given, 170 received

Hello all,

I didn't want to post this but I guess it is time for me to reach out for help. I am going down hill in my trading and can't stop. Meaning on my way to going broke and getting a job again.... I have enought to live for another few months before the job hunt.

My backstory. I have traded the markets for years. Good years and some bad years. In the last 3 years during my working hours I was able to make some good money. Then I had a system making me $300 a day avg for 5 months. So I decided to quit my job, taking a pay cut, to follow my dream as a trader. For the past 3 months I have been living from just the markets. Yes I had some good trades but the bad ones were there too. I was trading just futures and lost $8,000 in two weeks. (One contract each usually ES,CL,NQ,ZB) I had taken a break for two weeks came back and still fell like I can't master it. I am thankful that I bought some options and trade those daily to make some income.

I think my biggest problem is to find an indicator or system to follow my rules. I have one indicator I always use on a 5 min chart and it has made me some good money but then there is that one trade that takes out my stop loss right away and shoot me back down. my profit target is trailing stop, go for $100 profit then move stop to break even and move stop ever $100 profit. Now I love crude..... 10 cent move is nothing in crude so I usually put my initail stop loss at $200. This worked out great at times. Walked away with $200, $300, and max $1,000 trades. But then loss, loss, and loss.

I meditate ever day and try to learn more about the markets every day.

It might just be so stressed out from trying to learning every indicator out there that has me lost but then again the two week break would of help me with that... nope.

Over the years of trading I have foung out there is no holy grain indicator or system. There will be losing trades and just avoid the big ones. Don't over trade.

Taking al that in account with my years of learning and try and error. I can not crack the code.

I am asking for some help with anything.

I have faith in myself that this will work out and I will not stop till I make it. Will to try anuthing now.

Took $400 profiit in gold today then gave it away in crude's rally down.

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  #3 (permalink)
 Pariah Carey 
Market Wizard
Memphis TN
 
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Wow. That's brave of you to post this and I'm sure you will get some positive, helpful responses. Though some of it you may not want to hear. Like probably what I'm about to say: get a job. A steady income. You can do that and trade part time and work your way back up. Trading is stressful enough, but having to worry about paying the bills on top of it I think is just too much pressure. The markets aren't going away. They will always be there.

If you can get it to where you work to at least cover the bills and can still make a couple hundred a day trading, that's great. $200 a day is like 50k a year. And it sounds also like you need to work on your edge. The hard truth here is that it sounds like you just don't have what it takes to trade full time, but that is not an insult. I don't either! But I know I've got the potential, and you do too.

It's a tough business. You get humbled quick. So I'd say get a steady income to take off the stress of having to pay all your bills from trading, then take a look at your trading process and what you're doing wrong. Maybe trade micro contracts for less risk. Really, just forget about making lots of money trading right now. Focus on trading well and establishing a winning track record.

Money make ya handsome
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  #4 (permalink)
 MiniP 
Market Wizard
Columbus OHIO
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Trading: ES,
 
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it sounds like you are possibly over leverged, if you are trading all those at once it could wreck a smaller account ( idk account size)

I would suggest you trade one instrument and go from there. Thats what i started doing and I honestly make more money with less trades

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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  #5 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
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barabas View Post
Hello all,

I didn't want to post this but I guess it is time for me to reach out for help. I am going down hill in my trading and can't stop. Meaning on my way to going broke and getting a job again.... I have enought to live for another few months before the job hunt.

...

I am asking for some help with anything.

This speaks to me because I have been in this spot too. My solution was that I had to get a job again. This may sound rough and I know it's not what you want, but I didn't either. I hope someone else can give you a better answer, but this was how it worked out for me.

At this point I don't need to work for anyone else to live, but I can't live on trading either. Going back to work was what eventually worked for me, and made it possible to keep trying to learn the craft of trading without worrying. Trading never had to be something that I had to succeed at in order to eat. This is real important.

So I think you were over-leveraged when you moved from the steady job income in favor of trading income. Too much leverage can be a big problem, and, to keep the analogy going, you're getting close to your stop-loss.

So the first thing I would say is that, if you're willing to do anything, getting that job may be what you have to do. Think about this intelligently and carefully, and decide what your decision-point will be (x amount of money left or whatever.)

Don't despair. Working is a pain in the ass, but there are worse things, like starving.

------------

Now, as to your trading. If you're asking for trading help, no one can help you unless they know something about your trading. Try opening a public trading journal here on this forum and letting people see how you trade. The feedback can help you, and so will the fact that you will have to be really honest with yourself about each trade. This is a good thing.

There is no guarantee a journal will get you anything at all, but what do you have to lose?

As to indicators and systems, well, there are a lot of them, and I'm pretty sure that they are seldom or never the way to trading success. They can be useful, but it's what you do with them that makes them work, if they do. I absolutely would not ever spend any money, especially right now, where you are financially, on anything that anyone wants to sell you.

So these are my only suggestions. I have done every one of them, and, on the whole, they have worked for me. It did take time, but everything does. The most important thing is to accept where you are, and don't struggle with what you can't change. Work on what you can. There is certainly a pathway out, you just have to find it. If it goes through a job, well, OK then. If there are some other steps, OK too. Just don't run out of money while you're deciding.

I hope any of this helps you. You are not alone, and it is smart to ask for help. But you have some choices ahead and you need to make them as well as you can. Remember your stop-loss is getting real close now.

Good luck.

Bob.

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  #6 (permalink)
 LonnieMSP 
Minneapolis
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Optimus Futures, CQG
Trading: E-mini ES,
 
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Maybe apply the adage: don't quit your day job.

Why stress yourself out unnecessarily? There is no need to rush into a lifetime career of successful trading. Even if you're only working part time somewhere you can hedge you bet and give yourself more time to get consistent and weather the ups and downs.

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  #7 (permalink)
FuturesDisciple
Chicago IL, USA
 
 
Posts: 1 since Feb 2019
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Check out PATs Trading on YouTube. He uses no indicators, all pure price action. I am not affiliated with him in any way but I have been following him for a while and it's starting to make sense.

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  #8 (permalink)
 captainquenta 
Sioux Falls, South Dakota
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: Tradovate
Trading: NQ
 
Posts: 10 since Jul 2016
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I don't post here that often, but I've been where you've been.

I now have a big poster above my station that says, 'Jon' - I use my first name on it because my wife (who is a psychologist), said if you put your name on something you'll always take note of it. Anyway, it says, 'Jon - do you feel great about a big win or a series of wins? You're done for a week. Walk away.'

Every single significant major loss I can remember has ALWAYS been preceded by a big win or a series of wins. I know they say to 'quit when you're ahead' - but it's hard to do when you feel like you are 'in the zone'. I have to walk away for a week if I do well.

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  #9 (permalink)
 albat 
Greenville,NC
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: tradingview.com
Broker: Tradovate,CQG
Trading: currency futures,lean hogs,es,cl,euro,soybeans
 
Posts: 18 since Apr 2015
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have done what you have done but went back to work. still trading but only going for 2 points at a time. every time i get 2 thousand built up in profit i add another contract and only go for 2 points and call it a day.less trades less stress. just a part time trader in es and cl

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  #10 (permalink)
 OneEye 
The Netherlands
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: proprietary
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 20 since Dec 2017
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Do not trade when you are emotional.

You're either force yourself into a trade, and/or you are forced to exit a losing position.
This is how the big guys win and the small guys always lose.

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  #11 (permalink)
BNCREA
Copperas Cove
 
 
Posts: 1 since May 2017
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I'm not promoting this guy but,,,I follow ftseman (he's on youtube). He uses no indicators, okay maybe a couple fibs, POC, and VWAP but 99% pitch forks and other forms of geometry. He just reads price action. He's a 20 year pro.
Take some time off, decompress, re-evaluate your situation and study a proven method. Hope this helps man.

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  #12 (permalink)
 CannonTrading   is a Vendor
 
 
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barabas View Post
Hello all,

I didn't want to post this but I guess it is time for me to reach out for help. I am going down hill in my trading and can't stop. Meaning on my way to going broke and getting a job again.... I have enought to live for another few months before the job hunt.

My backstory. I have traded the markets for years. Good years and some bad years. In the last 3 years during my working hours I was able to make some good money. Then I had a system making me $300 a day avg for 5 months. So I decided to quit my job, taking a pay cut, to follow my dream as a trader. For the past 3 months I have been living from just the markets. Yes I had some good trades but the bad ones were there too. I was trading just futures and lost $8,000 in two weeks. (One contract each usually ES,CL,NQ,ZB) I had taken a break for two weeks came back and still fell like I can't master it. I am thankful that I bought some options and trade those daily to make some income.

I think my biggest problem is to find an indicator or system to follow my rules. I have one indicator I always use on a 5 min chart and it has made me some good money but then there is that one trade that takes out my stop loss right away and shoot me back down. my profit target is trailing stop, go for $100 profit then move stop to break even and move stop ever $100 profit. Now I love crude..... 10 cent move is nothing in crude so I usually put my initail stop loss at $200. This worked out great at times. Walked away with $200, $300, and max $1,000 trades. But then loss, loss, and loss.

I meditate ever day and try to learn more about the markets every day.

It might just be so stressed out from trying to learning every indicator out there that has me lost but then again the two week break would of help me with that... nope.

Over the years of trading I have foung out there is no holy grain indicator or system. There will be losing trades and just avoid the big ones. Don't over trade.

Taking al that in account with my years of learning and try and error. I can not crack the code.

I am asking for some help with anything.

I have faith in myself that this will work out and I will not stop till I make it. Will to try anuthing now.

Took $400 profiit in gold today then gave it away in crude's rally down.

While not easy to swallow....some real stuff you wrote and i am sure you are not the only one going through this.

As a broker I have been able to observe MANY traders. The brutal truth is that very few make and even fewer make it consistently but the dream is there for the the select few who do make it....(personal opinion)

I can probably write about this topic for much more time than I have BUT here are a few pointers for thought and I will be more than happy to chat on the phone if interested:
I dont think anyone can crack the code. You may be able master enough skills and experience to bite a small piece which will be enough
I would consider getting a job that still allows me to trade certain periods but will provide income and take off some pressure.
If you have confidence in your method, than try to perfect it, maybe use range bar charts rather than 5 minutes? use 18 or 23 ticks range bar charts with the same indicators you are using and see if that provides more clarity?
I can share a few more indicators/ tips but dont want to violate futures.io rules, so feel free to PM me and regardless I respect what you wrote and trying to do.

PM with any questions about Cannon Trading (800) 454-9572 (310) 859-9572. Trading commodity futures, forex and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this post are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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  #13 (permalink)
 mafalda954 
QUITO ECUADOR
 
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barabas View Post
Hello all,

I didn't want to post this but I guess it is time for me to reach out for help. I am going down hill in my trading and can't stop. Meaning on my way to going broke and getting a job again.... I have enought to live for another few months before the job hunt.

My backstory. I have traded the markets for years. Good years and some bad years. In the last 3 years during my working hours I was able to make some good money. Then I had a system making me $300 a day avg for 5 months. So I decided to quit my job, taking a pay cut, to follow my dream as a trader. For the past 3 months I have been living from just the markets. Yes I had some good trades but the bad ones were there too. I was trading just futures and lost $8,000 in two weeks. (One contract each usually ES,CL,NQ,ZB) I had taken a break for two weeks came back and still fell like I can't master it. I am thankful that I bought some options and trade those daily to make some income.

I think my biggest problem is to find an indicator or system to follow my rules. I have one indicator I always use on a 5 min chart and it has made me some good money but then there is that one trade that takes out my stop loss right away and shoot me back down. my profit target is trailing stop, go for $100 profit then move stop to break even and move stop ever $100 profit. Now I love crude..... 10 cent move is nothing in crude so I usually put my initail stop loss at $200. This worked out great at times. Walked away with $200, $300, and max $1,000 trades. But then loss, loss, and loss.

I meditate ever day and try to learn more about the markets every day.

It might just be so stressed out from trying to learning every indicator out there that has me lost but then again the two week break would of help me with that... nope.

Over the years of trading I have foung out there is no holy grain indicator or system. There will be losing trades and just avoid the big ones. Don't over trade.

Taking al that in account with my years of learning and try and error. I can not crack the code.

I am asking for some help with anything.

I have faith in myself that this will work out and I will not stop till I make it. Will to try anuthing now.

Took $400 profiit in gold today then gave it away in crude's rally down.


Hi! I am new writing messages, but I hope you will receive it. I am learning to trade with Wyckoff method and it is awesome. You will have to read a lo the and maybe spend some money in courses but it will pay off. Look for the Wyckoff institute, a new course is starting in September.
Regards,
Guillermina

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  #14 (permalink)
mkklyk
amsterdam
 
 
Posts: 5 since Mar 2017
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Hi,

If you interested in my symmetrical price levels strategy for CL NQ and ES mail me or send PM
and I will share my charts with you on tradingview for CL , whole set from M to 4min.
Charts for ES are ONLY good on Sierrachart(i didn’t found better anyway) ,same NQ on sierra.
RSI-w and SMA 21 only indicators in use.
Greets.
mkklyk

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  #15 (permalink)
 mistafista 
Shelby Twp, MI
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SC
Broker: NT8, IB, AMP
Trading: ES, CL
 
Posts: 11 since May 2017
Thanks: 6 given, 17 received

So how bad do you want it?

FWIW I think most of us have been there (myself included). It may help to listen to some chat with traders and/or revisit the Market Wizards series. Those aren't just stories, they are real life and this career mostly beats the crap out of you and makes you fail more miserably than just about anything ever will.

So its perfectly fine to go back to a day-gig. No one in the system will have a clue what your going through anyways so you'll get that needed break to regroup mentally. Screw anyone else with a snarky or misinformed opinion. They never have skin in the game and certainly don't have what it takes to fail into success.

Get a job, clear the mind before you gift away any more capital and become worthy (furthering your learning and testing) because you are.

Don't forget to come back and update everyone on your journey. It will be really cool to see your outcome and hopefully encourage other traders in the future with the same obstacles.

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  #16 (permalink)
dbouzas
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 18 since Jul 2019
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thanks for your post. not knowing how you trade I will give you some ideas. there are probably a couple of things you could address at this point.

one thing comes to mind is your endless search for indicators and strategies. I would focus more on plays, setups, and having a playbook in general of trades that you consistently profit from. looks like your 5 min one could be a starter. keeping a journal is important because you could go back and check which ones your good at and stay away from the ones that your not. I would bet money that your losers are probably the same setups over and over.

you could also start looking at risk management and finding ways to improve it specifically. if youre taking small winners compared to your losers, that is never going to work out in the end. losses need to be small, NO MATTER WHAT. if your trading your own money you need to have STRICT rules on how much your risking compared to how much you have and the probability that your going to reach your target.

if you plot out all your trades over a year, its going to look like a chart with ups and downs. when your in a down phase, risk less and when your in an up phase risk more. this is KEY to making the big money. professional traders make their money in few trades and not every trade. when your in a draw down or see it developing, instead of revenge trading to get your money back, switch to sim or risk less until you start to see the trades happening again.

taking profit is never taught by anybody and is important. I would not take out more than 30% of your account value. building your account is priority.

another tip i learned from a hedge fund trader, is keep a bunch of sudokus, you can do those until you see your setup!

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  #17 (permalink)
 tenders 
Texas/United States
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: MES, MNQ, NQ, ES
 
Posts: 28 since Dec 2018
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I'm not sure if I'm the best with advice but this is just a word of encouragement when you aren't as emotional, follow the footsteps of others who have made it. Don't try to recreate. Follow a plan that you can withstand losing consecutively for a week even and still be okay. Maybe read a few journals to see what you can learn from them. Use ticks instead of $ to calculate how you are winning and losing.

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  #18 (permalink)
 agan1337 
Venice FL
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: Ninja Trader Brokerage
Trading: YM
 
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barabas View Post
Hello all,

I didn't want to post this but I guess it is time for me to reach out for help. I am going down hill in my trading and can't stop. Meaning on my way to going broke and getting a job again.... I have enought to live for another few months before the job hunt.

My backstory. I have traded the markets for years. Good years and some bad years. In the last 3 years during my working hours I was able to make some good money. Then I had a system making me $300 a day avg for 5 months. So I decided to quit my job, taking a pay cut, to follow my dream as a trader. For the past 3 months I have been living from just the markets. Yes I had some good trades but the bad ones were there too. I was trading just futures and lost $8,000 in two weeks. (One contract each usually ES,CL,NQ,ZB) I had taken a break for two weeks came back and still fell like I can't master it. I am thankful that I bought some options and trade those daily to make some income.

I think my biggest problem is to find an indicator or system to follow my rules. I have one indicator I always use on a 5 min chart and it has made me some good money but then there is that one trade that takes out my stop loss right away and shoot me back down. my profit target is trailing stop, go for $100 profit then move stop to break even and move stop ever $100 profit. Now I love crude..... 10 cent move is nothing in crude so I usually put my initail stop loss at $200. This worked out great at times. Walked away with $200, $300, and max $1,000 trades. But then loss, loss, and loss.

I meditate ever day and try to learn more about the markets every day.

It might just be so stressed out from trying to learning every indicator out there that has me lost but then again the two week break would of help me with that... nope.

Over the years of trading I have foung out there is no holy grain indicator or system. There will be losing trades and just avoid the big ones. Don't over trade.

Taking al that in account with my years of learning and try and error. I can not crack the code.

I am asking for some help with anything.

I have faith in myself that this will work out and I will not stop till I make it. Will to try anuthing now.

Took $400 profiit in gold today then gave it away in crude's rally down.


Hello


I think you need stay with only one instrument and one contract.


Step back and review what is your setup is


Conservatively review your rules and paper trade

Concentrate on price action - not indicators and always follow your rules




Good luck

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  #19 (permalink)
 anddaley 
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barabas View Post
Hello all,

I didn't want to post this but I guess it is time for me to reach out for help. I am going down hill in my trading and can't stop. Meaning on my way to going broke and getting a job again.... I have enought to live for another few months before the job hunt.

My backstory. I have traded the markets for years. Good years and some bad years. In the last 3 years during my working hours I was able to make some good money. Then I had a system making me $300 a day avg for 5 months. So I decided to quit my job, taking a pay cut, to follow my dream as a trader. For the past 3 months I have been living from just the markets. Yes I had some good trades but the bad ones were there too. I was trading just futures and lost $8,000 in two weeks. (One contract each usually ES,CL,NQ,ZB) I had taken a break for two weeks came back and still fell like I can't master it. I am thankful that I bought some options and trade those daily to make some income.

I think my biggest problem is to find an indicator or system to follow my rules. I have one indicator I always use on a 5 min chart and it has made me some good money but then there is that one trade that takes out my stop loss right away and shoot me back down. my profit target is trailing stop, go for $100 profit then move stop to break even and move stop ever $100 profit. Now I love crude..... 10 cent move is nothing in crude so I usually put my initail stop loss at $200. This worked out great at times. Walked away with $200, $300, and max $1,000 trades. But then loss, loss, and loss.

I meditate ever day and try to learn more about the markets every day.

It might just be so stressed out from trying to learning every indicator out there that has me lost but then again the two week break would of help me with that... nope.

Over the years of trading I have foung out there is no holy grain indicator or system. There will be losing trades and just avoid the big ones. Don't over trade.

Taking al that in account with my years of learning and try and error. I can not crack the code.

I am asking for some help with anything.

I have faith in myself that this will work out and I will not stop till I make it. Will to try anuthing now.

Took $400 profiit in gold today then gave it away in crude's rally down.



Your issue is just money/risk management. Your systems obviously work as they have made you money. However when you start losing big chunks of your profits thats almost always a money/risk management issue. You need to have tighter stops so as not to blow out your account. Losing trades should not be an issue. Just the cost of doing business. Focus on reducing the size of your losses and not so much the number of losses. Losses will always come. But with proper risk management you should not blow out your accounts. Do some research on the “Risk Of Ruin formula for trading”. There are also Risk of Ruin calculators that can help you calculate how much you should risk per trade so as not to blow out your account. The value changes with each win/loss so the calculation should be made before each trade.

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  #20 (permalink)
 hoppy123 
orlando
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: esignal
Trading: forex emini oil gas
 
Posts: 49 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 19 given, 54 received

been trading for 10 yrs . I have the luxury that i have a small business that i can come and go . I have tried full time trading 3 times and failed mostly by over trading . I made $120k one year trading and working . I tried full time after that and lost$60K in 6 months (over trading ). The dream of trading fulltime on the beach travelling the world is bullshit . I have realised you need a steady income and trading will be less pressure . Like to day every thing was in a range and i didnt trade .i did my regular work and still made money . Uf i had traded in that chop i would lost most likely .

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  #21 (permalink)
CIO1
Irvine, CA USA
 
 
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dbouzas View Post
thanks for your post. not knowing how you trade I will give you some ideas. there are probably a couple of things you could address at this point.

one thing comes to mind is your endless search for indicators and strategies. I would focus more on plays, setups, and having a playbook in general of trades that you consistently profit from. looks like your 5 min one could be a starter. keeping a journal is important because you could go back and check which ones your good at and stay away from the ones that your not. I would bet money that your losers are probably the same setups over and over.

you could also start looking at risk management and finding ways to improve it specifically. if youre taking small winners compared to your losers, that is never going to work out in the end. losses need to be small, NO MATTER WHAT. if your trading your own money you need to have STRICT rules on how much your risking compared to how much you have and the probability that your going to reach your target.

if you plot out all your trades over a year, its going to look like a chart with ups and downs. when your in a down phase, risk less and when your in an up phase risk more. this is KEY to making the big money. professional traders make their money in few trades and not every trade. when your in a draw down or see it developing, instead of revenge trading to get your money back, switch to sim or risk less until you start to see the trades happening again.

taking profit is never taught by anybody and is important. I would not take out more than 30% of your account value. building your account is priority.

another tip i learned from a hedge fund trader, is keep a bunch of sudokus, you can do those until you see your setup!


I bet all here have a similar story... The quote above spoke volumes, and I thought I'd re-post it. I'll add the "fundamental" of cutting losers and letting profits run. If you're scalping, it's like playing in the tidepools because the waves are no larger than one foot, but then the periodic 5-footer comes in... I've putzed around with tiny profits, only to miss a giant one... If you're not doing it, I'd suggest looking at a larger time-frame or two, and let it shape your shorter-term trading. You'll need the big gains of the big moves to make up for the myriad little losses (at least that's true for my trading).

Best wishes!

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  #22 (permalink)
 Fxfutures1976 
London
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: cqg integrated,ninjatrade
Trading: Futures and forex
 
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barabas View Post
Hello all,

I didn't want to post this but I guess it is time for me to reach out for help. I am going down hill in my trading and can't stop. Meaning on my way to going broke and getting a job again.... I have enought to live for another few months before the job hunt.

My backstory. I have traded the markets for years. Good years and some bad years. In the last 3 years during my working hours I was able to make some good money. Then I had a system making me $300 a day avg for 5 months. So I decided to quit my job, taking a pay cut, to follow my dream as a trader. For the past 3 months I have been living from just the markets. Yes I had some good trades but the bad ones were there too. I was trading just futures and lost $8,000 in two weeks. (One contract each usually ES,CL,NQ,ZB) I had taken a break for two weeks came back and still fell like I can't master it. I am thankful that I bought some options and trade those daily to make some income.

I think my biggest problem is to find an indicator or system to follow my rules. I have one indicator I always use on a 5 min chart and it has made me some good money but then there is that one trade that takes out my stop loss right away and shoot me back down. my profit target is trailing stop, go for $100 profit then move stop to break even and move stop ever $100 profit. Now I love crude..... 10 cent move is nothing in crude so I usually put my initail stop loss at $200. This worked out great at times. Walked away with $200, $300, and max $1,000 trades. But then loss, loss, and loss.

I meditate ever day and try to learn more about the markets every day.

It might just be so stressed out from trying to learning every indicator out there that has me lost but then again the two week break would of help me with that... nope.

Over the years of trading I have foung out there is no holy grain indicator or system. There will be losing trades and just avoid the big ones. Don't over trade.

Taking al that in account with my years of learning and try and error. I can not crack the code.

I am asking for some help with anything.

I have faith in myself that this will work out and I will not stop till I make it. Will to try anuthing now.

Took $400 profiit in gold today then gave it away in crude's rally down.

I can relate to you and I’m sure so many people can. I found out the hard way too until I realised some fundamental issues with money management and being undercapitalised.

Could you give me some more information so I can give you my advice.
What is your win rate percentage and what is your risk reward on each trade.

I read you have a set $200 Risk but what is your minimum expected per trade?

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  #23 (permalink)
 shodson 
Quantoholic
OC, California, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
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The problem may not be you, it could be that the markets you trade have changed, so the old ways of doing things don't work as well as they used to. That has probably damaged your confidence, which is hard to recover from.

For me, I have a number of trading "edges" that I trade with, but I also know what kind of markets they work and don't work in, so I only express them when the market conditions are favorable. If the conditions aren't right, that edge is not an edge.

If you don't know your edge, and can't measure when it does and doesn't work, then I would work on getting that first.

For example, oil is seasonally bearish from July/August to the end of the year. So, I would have a more bearish skew for the next few months. Is your strategy to only look for buy signals in oil? If so I would reconsider.

Also, trade higher time frames to slow things down a bit. You can still trade while working a steady income-earning job. I wouldn't leave your job until your trading income is at least 2x your job income for at least a 6 month period, because even though your trading income might be more than your job income, the income stream will be much more volatile so you may have to endure weeks or months of drawdown before making money again, so you need to make sure you have enough saved to live off of to survive your drawdown periods until the wins start coming back again.

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  #24 (permalink)
TradeThatJazz
sonora california
 
 
Posts: 14 since Aug 2017
Thanks: 3 given, 17 received

Help for you...

I will probably get a lot of flack from the first suggestion, but here goes anyway:

1) Look on the web for "Ace Trades". I am not a subscriber, but his /ES calling during his free trials appears to work.

In addition to looking at the YouTube videos, sign up for his free 3-day trials. If you watch enough of the videos, you can absorb much of what he has to teach.
If you decide to subscribe, obviously you will receive the whole banana.

2) Look on the web for "Tradeguider". Gavin Holmes and his mentor(s) have taken Richard Wyckoff's (1930s) teachings and practices them, along with a few changes. He calls his style of trading "Volume Spread Analysis" or, simply VSA.

He has no qualms about teaching the Wyckoff and VSA principles, if you would like to learn them. VSA actually explains how and where the Market Makers chisel away at your trading money. I have found very few educators that actually point out the how and why the Market Makers are able to gather your money so quickly.

Again, look at their website tradeguider.com, or on YouTube.

Note that he sells services and software that make the most of VSA, but he also explains the details of VSA in his videos. You can absorb many of the concepts (but not all the fine points) if you watch enough of his videos.
Read between the lines in his software and services videos. It will work.

3) If you want to learn candlesticks, head for (you guessed it), YouTube, and look at Stephen Bigalow's Candlestick Forum (and/or candlestickforum.com). There is so much free information. it will make your head spin. And, good information, too!
He is personable, knowledgeable, and you can learn with a good teacher.

Obviously, he has paid information, too.

-------------------------------------------

So, there are some no-cost options for you.
The caveat is that you need to WANT to dig in and learn. Simply watching the videos is not enough.
Test what they have to say until you are satisfied. Then, put your money on it.

Good trading.

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  #25 (permalink)
 GeoTrader86 
Nashville, TN/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ZN, ES
 
Posts: 88 since Mar 2017
Thanks: 22 given, 120 received

I’ve been in a similar situation and mode of thinking. I went from confidently trading full-time to having to get a night job and trading during the day.

It wasn’t the end of the world. I didn’t like it, but I didn’t go hungry and I paid my bills. Getting a job didn’t mean I failed at trading. It wasn’t what I wanted, but I chose to do it because it allowed me to continue on the path of developing as a trader. It was really nice to not have to worry about making money, I’ll tell you that for sure!

The mindset of “I have to make this work now; I have to make x amount of money now” is a dangerous place to be for a trader. We don’t get to decide when we’re successful. It just doesn’t work that way. It is incredibly difficult to make wise decisions when under extreme stress in any walk of life. In my experience, trading well is next to impossible when you believe that you must make money now.

My 2 cents on where to go from here:

1. Stop the bleeding. We have to be honest with ourselves when “trading on tilt” and break the cycle ASAP.

2. Secure steady income elsewhere. I found this very helpful for thinking clearly about where I was, where I wanted to be, how to possibly get there, and to decide if I was willing to do that and for how long.

3. Identify and track your edge by focusing on expectancy. Why should you expect to make money in the long run? Are you right most of the time? Are you looking for a few outsized wins occasionally to make up for being wrong most of the time? Or do you hover around 50% with average wins > average losers? Figure that out, thoroughly review your trades and look for weakness to improve upon.

4. Narrow your focus. Become a specialist. If you can’t generate positive expectancy in 1 or 2 markets, adding more things to look at won’t help that issue.

5. Reduce your risk until you figure out the above and show yourself that you can generate a positive expectancy when the pressure to succeed is reduced. Also, setting a dollar-based stop is difficult to do in a way that makes sense when you’re trading a single contract. The micro contracts are a great way get around that problem.


I have had several periods of a few weeks to months where I thought I had “figured it out.” I'm still working at it. It can be gut wrenching to have that illusion stripped away. But we have to see things for what they are before we can improve upon them.

Kudos for laying it all out there for the community to see. Best of luck to you!

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  #26 (permalink)
fkarjono
San Jose, CA
 
 
Posts: 2 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 1 given, 1 received

Hello,
I only trade ES futures since I work fulltime, and I only buy long, no short. I was able to make some last year, but this year I'm losing about 6K so far, trying to make it back, no pressure, I trade only when the trend is very strong, as market mostly faded or became weak after open recently.
If you trade randomly, please don't count on indicators, try to read charts beyond the indicators. Market is very manipulative, I think starting from March or April, ES has many "V" games and traps, it wants you to chase, and will stop you out first before ramping straight up. Indicators usually work if you let them run all the time, which covers all the probability. It will lose when market is in choppy mode, but able to cover during the longer trends.
It's easy to understand this concept but it's impossible to monitor market all the time. Take a break to review your past trades. Good luck.

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  #27 (permalink)
 Apollo91 
Queensbury NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim, NT8
Trading: CL, NQ, YM
 
Posts: 1 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 4 given, 1 received

Great job on sharing! Speaking out and sharing with other people of similar interest is the first step on the way out of your ditch. Based on your particular situation it does look you might need to consider getting at least a part time job not only to cover your bills but also to regain your confidence and take a little break from trading to regain a proper state of mind. Trading in your current state will produce overtrading and more losses. I'm only saying that because the same happened to me.

Have you though about automating your trading? If you have your own system you can just automate it so that you never miss a trade or move your stop. I've discovered that some of the best trades start overnight and I was never able to take them. Start with a low risk micro futures (which work great by the way, especially MNQ in my opinion), 1 contract at a time and see if it produces consistent results. Don't forget to backtest your system so you know what to expect from it in terms of profit potential, winloss ratio and drawdown. I've only used Ninjatrader for my autostrategies so I can't recommend anything else, but NT8 works great.

You don't need any new fancy indicators, some tried and true ones, like MACD and moving averages still work as long as you control your losses and let your winners rip!! Be right only 30% of the time, but if your winners are 4 or 5 times bigger than your losers, you'll be able to make tons of money. Manually its hard to achieve as we stop taking trades after a few stops or we'll cut a winner as soon as it makes $200, but bot will always get in and get out based on rules you set up.

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  #28 (permalink)
 barabas 
Chicago IL USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradestation
Broker: Tradestation
Trading: ES,NQ, CL
 
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Posts: 110 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 102 given, 170 received

From the bottom of my heart, thank you all.


I did not expect this many responses so fast. I even had a hard time logging back into the site since so many of you were active.

I will try to update you all on my journey going forward. Possibly job hunting too... first I need to clear my head and take this all in.

This is just another great reason why I love trading, we all come together to fight the battle. Can't get that in a "job".


Thank you.

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  #29 (permalink)
 LonnieMSP 
Minneapolis
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Optimus Futures, CQG
Trading: E-mini ES,
 
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Thanks: 348 given, 45 received


barabas View Post
From the bottom of my heart, thank you all.


I did not expect this many responses so fast. I even had a hard time logging back into the site since so many of you were active.

I will try to update you all on my journey going forward. Possibly job hunting too... first I need to clear my head and take this all in.

This is just another great reason why I love trading, we all come together to fight the battle. Can't get that in a "job".


Thank you.

#winning

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  #30 (permalink)
JimPauley
WHEATON
 
 
Posts: 6 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 2 given, 15 received

The last thing you need is the pressure to make a minimum of X dollars to pay the bills. This will make you over-trade, and it sounds like it already has. Plus the stress of watching your account value go down every month will eat you alive. Get another 9-5 job and trade from 5am-8. Or don’t. You can cherry-pick the best trades. If you have a position when it’s time to quit, leave the order with a Broker, profit OCO stop.

Trade NQ ($5/tick) or the new S&P micro so you can handle normal price fluctuations without a worry.

Use volume charts or Renko bars, not minute charts. They’re smoother, and the market doesn’t give a rat’s ass about minutes, only traded volume and price movement.

Trade 2 lots so you can take quick profits on 1 and let the other 1 breathe.

In your Crude example, if you go long 2 at 5670 and sell 1 out at 5675, you are now long from 5665 on the remaining one. Much easier to watch the swings when you have a better entry price.

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  #31 (permalink)
 MJMack 
New York, NY USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL,TF,ES
 
Posts: 3 since Dec 2015
Thanks: 3 given, 1 received

Here's my 2 cents: I've had TOS for 10 yrs, but i trade off of Ninja. TOS has the best pivot points and great trendline & channel trend drawing tools. Use them to map out the market first (I draw angled trendlines & channels short term, med term & long term. Note, ES also has a horizontal channel due to its high volume). This will help to visualize what is happening and to find angled support & resistance points. I also use sharper angled trendlines on a 1min chart to help pinpoint my entry point. This may take a while to get used to, but once you see the trend points line up, its hard to 'unsee' them. Also, once you think you've found the most tradeable future based on the above, stick with that one future. You can also attach alerts to your lines. Their long list of indicators doesn't seem to have any good $ making ones imho. If there were any, it would be talked about all over this forum. Btw, if you make $400, keep it - that's $100k a yr if you can avg it everyday. Best of luck to you.

MJMack

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  #32 (permalink)
 Scottiep 
Green Bay, WI
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Trading: NQ
 
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Posts: 70 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 26 given, 26 received

Barabas-

Like you, I left a $170K job 12 years ago to pursue day trading futures. I made that decision based on some "Christians", 2-3 firms, who I naively trusted and believed. Frankly, I was a sucker. My system worked like yours until the crash of 2008.

But, since then, I have lost money every year for 11 years. I quit a while back, when I was informed that only 5%-10% of day traders actually make ANY money- and very few make what I did 12 years ago. This losing proposition- 90/95% lose has been known for 30 years!! But, the wealthy firms who take your money are never held accountable.

There are dozens, maybe hundreds, of charlatans who claim they have the system that is 70%+ accurate, but do not disclose they have inverted, (perverted), risk/reward ratios. With these nonsensical 'systems' a trader would have to be 'right' 90%+ of the time to make anything. I have tried at least a dozen of these 'B.S. systems', which is why only 5%-10% make any money- even after many years of experience. It is a very dishonest "business" and, I encourage you to do what I did: accept it is a losing proposition, just like gambling in Vegas, lick your wounds and move on. Don't waste any more of your time on this hoax. It is the ultimate Scam and the CFTC does little to protect the consumer. Get out while you can. Without inside information or omniscience you will fail.

I ask every "Guru" (Con Artist) who tries to pitch me their B.S. 1 question: "Please send me a copy- with all your personal information blacked out- showing what your actual profit or loss was the last 3, 6 or 12 months". None ever do that. In fact, all they do is trade in Simulation, and they make their real money selling their systems. Think of it: How can a moderator observe charts all day long, or even 1/2 day, and 'chat' with members in their phony 'trading rooms'.

Once you've lost money with these bogus 'systems'- try getting it back. I got 40% back, from 1 firm, when I filed a complaint with my State's Dept. of consumer affairs. They acted on my behalf and I got 40% returned- 2 years later.

I get tempted to look at charts but stopped doing so long ago. There is a reason professional trading prop firms, and institutional trading firms refer to "Us retail Wannabe Traders" as 'Paper'. Because all we do is give them our money 90%-95% of the time. It is a losing proposition, with very, very few exceptions. Day Trading is a Con- but the Con Artists will claim anything to get your money. The odds are against you 9-1. A losing bet. Sorry, but the truth is the truth. The game is stacked against you. Best wishes.

Scottiep

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  #33 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
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Try sizing down in to the micro contracts. MES, MNQ, QM, MYM, M2K, MGC, etc.
(I actually don't like M2K, the data is very sparse. MES in the summer is also been terrible)

Get really, Really, REALLY picky and selective about just the One setup that works for you.
That makes logical sense to you.
That you see in your sleep.
That you rehearse with your eyes closed when you wake up.
That you know what it looks and sounds like Exactly when it works.
You need to know what happens in the Setup AND what it should look like AFTER the entry.
Anything else you maybe look to move to break even or bail out.
Get really picky. Mentally flexible for all possibilities, but picky.

Wait for it. Watch a few markets and just wait for it. When it comes, then take it.
I actually don't like just 1 market, 1 strategy. I don't see that 1 market will be in favorable conditions every day.
IMHO the perfect setups can come if I'm watching 4 markets.
Then it's more consistent to cherry pick and focus on the best looking trade.
That way, I can at least be happy with my decision, rather than having to take what just 1 market gives me that day.
I know that's contrary to most wisdom, but I find that it alleviates regret and FOMO for me.
Seems to occupy my mind searching for the best cherry picked setup across charts, rather than thinking that I'm seeing something and forcing a trade because I'm limited to only one market.

It's the summer months and I've had a helluva time because it's such small timeframes active.
There are big moves, but the evidence of larger players is well hidden within the retail small timeframe noise.

Size down, use Micro futures. Get really picky and selective.
Do multiple markets, 1 setup. One PERFECT setup. One cherry picked perfect good trade at a time.
(This will keep you away from "market conditions have changed" because you're ignoring all non-ideal market conditions an just focusing on 1 cherry picked chart and setup)
Pay the extra commissions. A $25 loss is better than a $125 loss until you get your mind right again.

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  #34 (permalink)
 tpredictor 
North Carolina
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Trading: es
 
Posts: 644 since Nov 2011

Based on what I read, it sounds like you had fair degree of success but now things aren't working. It sounds like the market may have changed and that you might be trying to achieve unrealistic level of consistency. Because you haven't mention your statistics or specific systems, it also sounds like you aren't tracking your results sufficiently and haven't developed systematic methods toward your craft.

The following techniques may be of help,
  1. Go ahead and get some extra income now. Reduce the pressure.
  2. Start Tracking Your Stats
  3. Reduce Your Trading Frequency, Take Only Your Best Trades
  4. Be more systematic
  5. Consider where the dominant opportunity is, do not overly limit yourself
  6. Decrease expectations on consistency
  7. Take steps that can decrease the probability of taking correlated losses

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  #35 (permalink)
 Best Intentions 
San Marcos, California
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Think or Swim
Trading: Options for SPY
 
Posts: 4 since Dec 2017
Thanks: 3 given, 11 received

I can sympathize with your situation and can only say what others have already stated. If finances are getting thin then go and get employment to take that aspect of the stress out. Believe me, I have been trading the market for about 28 years and have blown up at least three accounts. But if trading has a hold on you then don't give up. Study the markets while you work and sort things out. Paper trade or whatever to keep fluent and develop technique. I had to break a really bad habit of over trading but now things are more peaceful and the trades I take are far less than before. But the account size is actually growing rather than whipsawing towards another explosion. Don't give up just take a hiatus. Then come back. All the best to you now and in the future.

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  #36 (permalink)
 Simba 
Irvine California
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: AMP MT5,Tradovate
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 17 since Feb 2011
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barabas View Post
Hello all,

I didn't want to post this but I guess it is time for me to reach out for help. I am going down hill in my trading and can't stop. Meaning on my way to going broke and getting a job again.... I have enought to live for another few months before the job hunt.

My backstory. I have traded the markets for years. Good years and some bad years. In the last 3 years during my working hours I was able to make some good money. Then I had a system making me $300 a day avg for 5 months. So I decided to quit my job, taking a pay cut, to follow my dream as a trader. For the past 3 months I have been living from just the markets. Yes I had some good trades but the bad ones were there too. I was trading just futures and lost $8,000 in two weeks. (One contract each usually ES,CL,NQ,ZB) I had taken a break for two weeks came back and still fell like I can't master it. I am thankful that I bought some options and trade those daily to make some income.

I think my biggest problem is to find an indicator or system to follow my rules. I have one indicator I always use on a 5 min chart and it has made me some good money but then there is that one trade that takes out my stop loss right away and shoot me back down. my profit target is trailing stop, go for $100 profit then move stop to break even and move stop ever $100 profit. Now I love crude..... 10 cent move is nothing in crude so I usually put my initail stop loss at $200. This worked out great at times. Walked away with $200, $300, and max $1,000 trades. But then loss, loss, and loss.

I meditate ever day and try to learn more about the markets every day.

It might just be so stressed out from trying to learning every indicator out there that has me lost but then again the two week break would of help me with that... nope.

Over the years of trading I have foung out there is no holy grain indicator or system. There will be losing trades and just avoid the big ones. Don't over trade.

Taking al that in account with my years of learning and try and error. I can not crack the code.

I am asking for some help with anything.

I have faith in myself that this will work out and I will not stop till I make it. Will to try anuthing now.

Took $400 profiit in gold today then gave it away in crude's rally down.

Hello

1-"I had a system making me $300 a day avg for 5 months"+" I was trading just futures and lost $8,000 in two weeks"

A few comments.

1-Seasonality problems,5 months is not enough,so maybe you were mostly long/short and now that seasonality has changed, your system's bias doesn't work anymore.Check your trades to see if there was a bias that gave you lucky wins due to seasonality,same bias that now is probably giving you unlucky losses.

2-Management of trading system problem: You averaged $ 300 a day,making 1500 a trading week,on average,then you lose $ 8000 in 2 weeks?Either your TP/SL ratio is way off or,or more probably you didn't respect your stops.Adjust your system's position size based on risk of ruin calculations and respect your stops,if your system has an edge,you will make money,if not,at least you will buy time and realize you can't trade it anymore.

My personal view is that your average winning week should be higher than your average losing week.Mathematically that is not exactly right,it depends on your winning/losing probabilities,but,at least you should think that losing in 2 weeks what you made,on average during the previous 5+ weeks requires either a tweaking in your system or that you commit to respect your stops.

3-Volatility changes,specially in Crude,you should aim to adjust both your TP/SL and your position size with changes in volatility,easier said than done,but you have to try to adjust to volatility no matter what.

4-Stress:You support yourself by trading,left your job,doesn't have enough cushion and are starting to get nervous/desperate,consequently,you are probably not implementing your system as well as before.

Probably,all of these factors influence your results,and you will have to tackle all of them to avoid getting derailed.

Get a part or full time job,analyze the causes of your results,tweak your system,reduce your position size,give yourself a year and trade it with a small position size...Preserve your capital and you can always come back and fight another day.

And enjoy life,do not let trading destroy your happiness,trading is like any other profession/work/business,just tougher(usually) and more rewarding(when successfully executed),but in the end,it is just a part of your life.

S

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  #37 (permalink)
bbgg91
melbourne, australia
 
 
Posts: 26 since Mar 2016
Thanks: 2 given, 42 received

Trading time frame is related to volatility so using the same time frame on everything can be problematic. Learn to trade one style of instrument well. Aim for consistency. I only trade indices. I understand how they work and where the opportunities are. I can make a good living doing that so I do not worry about anything else. Once you become proficient at trading one style of instrument, adjust position size to match your risk. Do not play whack-a-mole.

In terms of indicators, use what is most helpful in understanding what is going on. Understand how the indicator is built so you have insight into when it is not useful. An indicator is just that, an indicator. Indicators cannot predict. That is your job and that is where experience and skill come into it.

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  #38 (permalink)
 Zephyr 
Nashville, TN
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS + NT
Broker: TBD
Trading: NQ, CL, eminiRussell +
 
Posts: 49 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 26 given, 43 received

I hope to offer some suggestions to keep you in the game and win.

1. It sounds to me like you need to see the immediate market structure on the instrument of your choice. Try placing a Linear Regression Channel on your charts with a length of 100 or 150 - whatever encompasses the highs and lows for that many bars. This will give you support and resistance levels. You can draw them yourself, or use the platform’s automated one.

2. Trade with Tick Charts or Range bars, not too slow and not to fast. (233 or 400 ticks for daytrading).

3. Consider using a Keltner Channel. Trade when the price closes above or below the Channel. Study how to use these indicators. I personally use one that I’ve blackened with shading, and it covers everything I shouldn’t trade. It cuts the noise in a major way.

4. For your trade signals, a good one to use is the “SuperTrend” or the ‘ATR Trailing Stop’. You can also use a HULL Moving Average set to 34. Experiment. Also, try using an “Overbought / Oversold” indicator like the Ehler’s Stochastic to warn you when the price might pullback or reverse. You might also want try using a good ZigZag indicator to help you stay in the trends. These indicators are HELPS only. You can not always rely on their signals, but they will be excellent guides as you learn. Learn about using FIBs (Fibonacci Retracements) also. This will help you with your exits. Study your Charts carefully. I can’t emphasize this enough!


5. Trade only ONE instrument at a time. Choose among the best trenders with the best range. Oil (CL) is a good one. The YM is fairly good. I’d stay away from the NQ and ES until you are a solid trader.

6. Your stops need to be larger. You can take the extra risk if you have a solid strategy that you’ve PAPER TRADED with consistent success.

When I first started trading, I was counseled to take ALL indicators off my charts and trade by price action only. To me, it was the worst advice I followed. There was no structure to the market that I could see. How high/low was the price going to go??? When there are so many useful tools to clarify the markets, a newbie trader should use them.

I hope I’ve provided something you can use. I wish you the best, and I hope you never give up trading!

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  #39 (permalink)
 pimmsno1 
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Trading: ES, EC, NQ, RTY, YM
 
Posts: 5 since Feb 2015
Thanks: 4 given, 4 received

I can't tell for certain from your post, but it may be that you are over trading - you want a certian return and trade until you get it or get frustrated from losing instead of looking for that 10% of the time the market is not random and your research edge driven method shows a place to enter has come up to take advantage of. Also, perhaps trading too big - correlated positions over 3% of bankroll make emotional equity swings. I and many other want to feel busy, so focus on short term staring at the screen 5 min bars. Statistically, "day", trading - a position taken possibly to stay in a day, or swing - over 2-5 days, has a better edge, less noise, etc. Finally, there is usually only 1-3 markets that are moving in an appropriate way for good trading with whatever your speciality is. Pick only one or two noncorrelated markets to trade for only 0-2 trades a day.

Indicatorwise, categorize your indicators. Pick one favorite in each category. Oversold Overbought oscillator, momentum, etc. Never use one until you know when and if it has an edge. Test it at various levels on different things with a blind buy and sell a set number of periods later. Recursive indicators and systems don't work as well in commodities generally although there are a few exceptions.

Risk management, If you need to trade more than 2-3% of your bankroll (per trade) to potentially survive, then you need to have some other income and focus on research and 2-5 day swing trading, with micros if necessary, to stay sharp and manage risk and position size. Run "risk of ruin" calculations based on your trade stats. Overtrading, position size, and correlation is what causes most blowouts - that and trading with no edge. Research, know if you have an edge for each strategy, what it is, when, in what markets, etc.

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  #40 (permalink)
ProBowie
Clarksburg, WV/US
 
 
Posts: 4 since Dec 2017
Thanks: 12 given, 12 received



I read through every response thus far and there is some great pearls in there, but honestly don't get overwhelmed with this and that. I will reiterate a few pearls.

Step 1: Get rid of the "pressure" to make money... however you want

Step 2: Narrow your trading to ONE and only one instrument...

Step 3: Trade as SMALL as you can. Most likely the micros... 1 contract

Step 4: Have strict rules for stops/targets/management/entry and limit # of trades per day. (you only take the best)

Step 5: Do NOT chase the golden goose of indicators. It doesn't exist... Just observe Long term and Short term charts with as few indicators as you can. Think for yourself.

With that I'll leave you with one more piece of advice: There is only Success and Learning, never failure.

God Bless

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  #41 (permalink)
 GoldLinx 
New York City, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS
Trading: ES, Stocks
 
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I have A LOT to say because I have been in literally the EXACT same situation. I had produced about $90,000 in net profits in my first 6 months of trading before quitting my job to become a full-time trader, I spent the following year losing every dollar of that money. Some of my suggestions may be repeated but I did not have the patience to read everyone else's responses and just skimmed them. If you're willing to listen to someone whose been in the same exact shoes and you actually want to come out of it as a career trader, listen:

I'm going to address the job part at the end, let's talk about your trading first.

(1) First, you need to stop your search for indicators. If you are trading 5 minute charts with a stoploss where you expect to lose less than $200 in those products, you are essentially are a very short term day trader bordering a scalper. What you are missing right now is the context of the markets, indicators cannot define context, however a trained eye can have a "pretty" good idea going into a session if this is likely to be a balanced day or a trending day. I'm not saying you will predict what happens before it happens but I am saying you need a unique plan for each and every scenario. There are zero indicators to my knowledge that covers the shifting context of markets. With all the stuff going on as far as Fed, Trump, Iran, etc etc there is no indicator that is going to cover your ass all the time when you are trading news driven products like ES, NQ, and CL.

With that being said, it is likely that whatever indicator you are currently using DOES work, but only during the correct context. So you are going to need to develop a system on defining (in real-time) what type of market we are currently in. The reason why algo traders struggle to do this is because you cannot code context into an algo, so they have to create numerous if/then scenarios for the algo to execute. If you didnt know, some of the best algos are actually trading off news releases or certain key words in trump tweets, etc. I have never met someone long-term profitable trading a yes/no indicator without adding personal discretion.

You mentioned your system averaged $300 a day over the course of 5 months, well what was the market like during those 5 months? What was the volatility? What was the relative volume to other times of the year? Who was participating in those markets? What was the average rotation size for the timeframe you look at? Where were your targets and where were your stops? Maybe that edge is temporarily gone and will return when certain market conditions return. Maybe that edge was temporary and will never be back...

(2) I reluctantly want to tell you to learn about orderflow, the reason why I am reluctant is because you are likely going to struggle to be patient enough to really learn the auction process and how reading the tape, dom, and other various orderflow tools actually work. Orderflow is a way to judge the quality of YOUR PREDEFINED SETUPS THAT HAVE EDGE, orderflow itself is not a tool for entering the market. Because it sounds like you do not yet have setups with proven edge, I really caution you to not think that you can jump in the market because you saw 1000 contracts at X price, or you have noticed an iceburg forming or something because that's a recipe for big losses. Just remember orderflow either confirms your idea or keeps you OUT of the market. It's not a setup.

(3) Third, we know nothing about your trade management. If you are trading 1 lots well this gets pretty difficult, because you either have to win/lose, you're not affording yourself the opportunity for a scale out for risk reduction. Being able to do this will greatly increase your win/scratch %. So if you cannot afford multiple contracts in these products you need to start trading the micros (MES). You are doing yourself a HUGE disservice trying to get after it with 1 lots. I would recommend immediately transitioning to trading 3 lots on the MES as opposed to 1 ES.

(4) Next you need to specialize in a product. You mentioned 4 futures that you trade, my initial guess is that you probably look at the same indicators and tools across all 4. This is extremely erroneous. It is extraordinarily rare that a system would work in CL and then untweaked also be profitable in the ES, its so extremely unlikely. Your first order of business needs to be selecting ONE product and building consistency in your approach there. Then your PROCESS can be applied to other markets as you expand. In ANY of the products you mentioned there is more than enough activity to make any kind of money that you want to make over the long run. You are not improving your expectancy by jumping across markets in fact you are making it much more difficult on yourself because your feedback loop is messed up. If you are trading a particular setup in both CL and NQ, and you lose on it 5 times in a row on NQ, you might have lost confidence to trade that setup in any market but it may actually have edge in CL. It's extraordinarily difficult to interpret your results.

(5) Speaking of interpreting your results, how are you journaling? And do you have the ability right now to determine whether a losing trade was a mistake or a typical loss of your system? You could have a losing trade for the following reasons:
-Entry Error
-Management Error
-Incorrect Stoploss Placement (perhaps too tight)
-Incorrect Target Selection (is the target some arbitrary number or have you identified a level that you expect price to get to based on the context of that particular market)
-A scheduled loser of your system

Let's say you have a system that wins 56.5% of the time, and you get 2.5R on your winners risking $200(R) per trade:

Over 100 trades your expectancy is: 56.5 x 2.5R($500) - 43.5 x 1R (200) = This system "should" make $19,550 over 100 trades

However lets pretend you are executing PERFECTLY and making no errors, there is still a probabilistic chance that your system has 4, 5, even 6 sequential losers in a row. So, do you have the psychology skills in place that you could drawdown $1000 or even $1200 dollars in just a few days and STILL execute the system perfectly and believe in it?

The answer to that is likely no, and that is probably what is resulting in you looking for new indicators. (And I am speaking from experience here)

--------

Now lets get to the job thing.

If you want to trade for a living, you need to get into prop. If you have 3 months left to live off of, you're done. Your trading account will not be able to sustain that.

Just to be frank, I have never met a person in my life who makes 50k a year trading 1 lots. Lets just imagine you are a gifted superstar trader you do a complete transformation and you pull in 4k a month in profits trading the size you do right now. Generously, that's 3k after taxes, do you live frugally enough that you can live from 3k AND still add to your trading account to grow it? Because if the answer is no, then that means even if you do survive another 6 or even 9 months you are bound to blow up the very first time you have a negative month after that. You CANNOT be paycheck to paycheck in a trading account (again, speaking from experience). Not to mention the unbelievable weight that has on your psychology, how are you going to perfectly execute your system and then remain calm when it has 6 losers in a row?

Get a part-time job at a minimum. Free-lance your skills from your old career, uber, do phone sales in your free time, start a youtube channel, just get something or several somethings rolling on the side because you need to cover your expenses outside of trading. You can either have 2 jobs, or stick with 1 job your losing money on and then be forced to go to a job you don't like. Either way is difficult, but you know which choice you like better.

Brush up that old resume and start talking to prop firms, and if you don't currently have the credentials to get hired, you know what they're going to want to see? A consistent and methodical trader who is tracking his progress and getting better with each trading session. Buy (literally) yourself some time with a part time job while you try to get your foot in the door at a firm over the next year and hopeful you progress enough as a trader that you become highly marketable.

---------

To wrap this up I am going to summarize my list of executable actions:


1. Move to the micros
2. Select which 1 micro product you will specialize in
3. Backtest a strategy and find an edge (this is easier than you think, and there's many places you can research how to find your own edge, I think there's even a webinar on this website called "vetting your own edge" or something like that)
4. Implement a new rule where you are only allowed ONE change to your charts per 2 week period (even a damn color change, ONE change per 2 weeks)
5. Test your strategy in REAL-TIME, but WITHOUT trading it. WATCH your strategy play out or not play out over the course of 2 weeks. Watch every day, DO NOT take the trade. Watching it will help you with timing, what to look for when its working and not working, and getting used to seeing it fail. While you are in the trade your personal emotions run to high to objectively look at all of these variables because you cant help but want a win. So look at it where you do not care if it wins or not.
6. SIM trade that strategy for 2 weeks
7. Go back to live trading (there is only so much SIM can do, your first order of business is finding an edge, that is what SIM is for, however when you go to live you will find out if YOU can execute that edge or not)
8. Journal the details of each and every trade, tracked my setup, day type, context, volume, and anything else you think could be useful. Invest in a software like tradervue or journalytix, I think the basic version of tradervue is free.
9. Start analyzing whether you have made a mistake or this is a standard loss expected by your system
10. Look at every mistake as an opportunity to learn, so that when you mess up (because all of us at every stage still make mistakes) you will be able to use a mistake today an experience that makes you money in the future.
11. Also create some sort of routine for analyzing the news, I'm not saying to trade the news, but I am saying if the fed is cutting rates you sure as shit don't want to be short for a swing trade. The other day ES popped nearly 10pts just from news that the US was sending a negotiation team to China. If your indicator was telling you to fade that move, that would be a trade you would want to skip.
12. Create a "learning" syllabus, PLAN your education, the times of searching "CL setups" in YouTube is over. Remember step 4, where you cant change your charts? You need to select a tool that you are ALREADY using to get MORE skilled at each week. So if I have volume profile on my chart, I am going to plan out a week of learning where I will listen to other people talk about their use cases, I will plan out times where I just sit there and look at volume profile on my charts over the last month, time where I look at previous trades I made and go back and see if there was information volume profile gave that I did not see at the time. If your "studying" consists of finding "new" information, that is not study, study time is for SKILL improvement. Most traders have everything they need to be profitable already on their charts.
13. Create a technical goal and a discipline goal for each week (I do this every week without fail), Technical Goal could be: "I want to get better at recognizing weakness in pullbacks". Discipline Goal could be "I want to stop moving my stoploss after I have initially placed it in my trade". And you give yourself a score on how well you executed these goals every single day this week.
12. Demonstrate consistency for 3 months and start applying to firms, if you do not get hired at that point 6 months or 9 months of consistency looks even better. Firms want you to manage how much of their capital you risk. They will help you in getting more profitable, but they need to be able to trust that you are not going to blow up

--------

I know this is very long and will probably require multiple reads, but I have been there my friend and it was not a fun time in my life, in fact it wasn't even that long ago so I recall those feelings vividly. To my benefit, my fiance actually produced enough income to pay our bills. However it still messed with my psychology deeply as I felt emasculated and downright embarrassed being reliant on my lady to produce an income for us both. I forced many trades unnecessarily because I was trading to make money now not trading for the best performance over the course of 1000 trades. The latter is where you have to be at. Best of luck.

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  #42 (permalink)
 arijit 
plano TX
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Trading: TF
 
Posts: 2 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 1 given, 1 received

From my experience I have seen that I can consistently make profits every day if I trade ONLY ES and NOT trade GC and CL. Though they seem to give good profits, the losses will always be much more than the profits unless you have mastered it OR you are playing long term.
Stop trading CL and GC and focus only on ONE instrument and master it to such an extent that you can predict its path at least 50 percent of time. Then apply money management on top of it.

I trade only ES and use jigsaw tool and market profile to make trade decision, but I do not look at 5 min chart but 4500 tick chart which is a higher timeframe.

I still make mistakes, but the impact is not that brutal if I trade CL or GC. Take one day at a time and only think how to end with positive pnl on that day.

I too te ent quit my job to pursue trading , so I understand your worries.

Hope it helps.

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  #43 (permalink)
 max13 
New York
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Trading: 6e TF CL
 
Posts: 1 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 3 given, 1 received


barabas View Post
Hello all,

I didn't want to post this but I guess it is time for me to reach out for help. I am going down hill in my trading and can't stop. Meaning on my way to going broke and getting a job again.... I have enought to live for another few months before the job hunt.

My backstory. I have traded the markets for years. Good years and some bad years. In the last 3 years during my working hours I was able to make some good money. Then I had a system making me $300 a day avg for 5 months. So I decided to quit my job, taking a pay cut, to follow my dream as a trader. For the past 3 months I have been living from just the markets. Yes I had some good trades but the bad ones were there too. I was trading just futures and lost $8,000 in two weeks. (One contract each usually ES,CL,NQ,ZB) I had taken a break for two weeks came back and still fell like I can't master it. I am thankful that I bought some options and trade those daily to make some income.

I think my biggest problem is to find an indicator or system to follow my rules. I have one indicator I always use on a 5 min chart and it has made me some good money but then there is that one trade that takes out my stop loss right away and shoot me back down. my profit target is trailing stop, go for $100 profit then move stop to break even and move stop ever $100 profit. Now I love crude..... 10 cent move is nothing in crude so I usually put my initail stop loss at $200. This worked out great at times. Walked away with $200, $300, and max $1,000 trades. But then loss, loss, and loss.

I meditate ever day and try to learn more about the markets every day.

It might just be so stressed out from trying to learning every indicator out there that has me lost but then again the two week break would of help me with that... nope.

Over the years of trading I have foung out there is no holy grain indicator or system. There will be losing trades and just avoid the big ones. Don't over trade.

Taking al that in account with my years of learning and try and error. I can not crack the code.

I am asking for some help with anything.

I have faith in myself that this will work out and I will not stop till I make it. Will to try anuthing now.

Took $400 profiit in gold today then gave it away in crude's rally down.

I would like to give you some good advice, as of right now that means today stop trading live. Do not risk one more dollar of your hard earned money to the market. Here is what you should do next go to this website and sign up for a two week free trial and not the paid option. Prove that you can trade here profitably in sim before you even think of trading with real money again. If you can get approved for a funded account than use their service and not your own money for trading again period. That means as of today do not trade your money in these markets again. These markets are rigged and manipulated and the real money makers are the brokers, they never lose money. I can tell you for sure if you keep doing what you’re doing it will not be a good outcome. Think of it like this if you take a free trial and it does not workout than sign up under a different email address and try it one more time. If you end up doing well than go in and get funded under the Novice Account this way your max contract size is only 3 contracts.

Yes you will be doing a profit split of 80% 20% but this way if it turns out that you can trade profitable than you will not be risking your money. As of today that means right now you need to stop losing money. It is much more safer to put 100 dollars at risk if you decide to test out the funded account to see if you can get approved. When trading your real live funded account I can tell you if you continue trading poorly you will lose a lot more than what it will cost for the novice account. Do not get sucked in to trading your real live funded account again stop trading your money and you will see that it’s a much wiser decision to get funded through OneUp Trader than using your money. If you do become successful than you can always put some of your profit in to your personal account in the future for trading. Give yourself one more month if this does not work out its time to move on. You probably here it all the time don’t give up if you remain positive you will become successful at trading. Well by stopping trading and moving on to something else doesn’t mean you are a quitter or a failure. It will make you a better wiser man and in the end you will see you made the right choice. One more thing to keep in mind if you don’t take this advice and you keep failing at trading these markets will suck the life right out of you and you will see that time spent at trying to make this work was all a waste of time. You can recover from losing money but you will never be able to replace time and this is the most precious resource we have.

I am going to recommend two services that you can get free trials, the first is OneUp Trader for the trading account and Viper Trading Systems. These guys are an educational trading room try something completely different than what you’re doing now to see if you can make it work also these guys at Viper have a discount with OneUP for a 25% off if you decide to go live to get approved for a funded account. I am only recommending Viper because of the free trial and the discount they have with OneUP. These guys may just show you a completely different style of trading that may help your trading in the long run. Just like all these trading gurus they say there trading a real live account and they will show you some of there profitable trades during the live trading room. The idea is to try a different system to see if you can fix your problem, just give it a try. Follow there trading calls pick just one instrument stay focus and see if you can get back on track again to take it to the next level. Don’t hesitate to ask for a second free trial with them if you need to and be sure to ask a lot of questions, what you will get is five days Monday thru Friday plus they also do three live training webinars during the week. Remember the world class traders are of the top 90 percent of traders that’s is where you would have to be to become a successful trader.

Check it out and good luck with your trading.

https://oneuptrader.com/
https://vipertradingsystems.com/

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  #44 (permalink)
 mattz   is a Vendor
 
 
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Posts: 2,489 since Sep 2010
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Traders perceive that if they are profitable, the next natural thing is to quit their job and move to a full-time position. But, that is precisely where the "tilt" happens, and they are in danger of becoming gamblers as opposed to traders. Gamblers are those who use their impulses and intuition more than logic, and that is a very subtle mental change where it is tough to distinguish between our conscious and unconscious decisions.

Sudden changes lead to anger, desperation, urgency, low confidence, and fear. Do you think indicators (delayed quasi graphs/signals of price) will solve the above? Time frames change? No. You did well before because you were not under the same pressure. Go back to that and start over and develop a process that will get to the point you wish to be at.

Think inchworm. Move slowly! Make transitions gradually while analyzing yourself through these changes and documenting it in a journal. If you make mistakes in the (slow) process, you should potentially be able to fix them. You will be able to realize where the real skill is in trading: handling the ups and downs of trading, and not micro analyze each trade as a winner/loser. You will treat trading, and it's mathematical variance better.

I will publish tomorrow on the Optimus Blog the process of learning and will post it here.

I hope this helps.

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email support@OptimusFutures.com
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  #45 (permalink)
Eric1704
California
 
 
Posts: 14 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 2 given, 12 received

Excellent advice in all the posts. Take a few pieces of advice and stick with it. It took me a while too but eventually you will get it. I would throw away any indicators. Anyone can enter at any time and any place on the chart. You ONLY make money when you exit the trade and how skillfully you do it. SO focus on exits and forget about being precise on entries.

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  #46 (permalink)
MartinHHH
Montréal Québec
 
 
Posts: 6 since Mar 2019
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Everything as been said, except that: Get a punching bag! Or do intense physical activities after a bad day, that's work to keep your head clear with that anger.

Thanks for your thread, it was really interesting to read. A lot of honest answers.

I have lost several thousands myself. But never left working. You need a big pair of balls to do that. I took a pause with futures for about 3-4 years. Now I am back with a structured approached, but way far being profitable enough to replace my earning from my full time job.

Courage my friend, martin

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  #47 (permalink)
 eilanzier 
Singapore
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: Crude CL, Gold GC
 
Posts: 25 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 7 given, 13 received

Hi guys, kinda late to the party

My advice are simple

Discpline

1. Plan a max loss amount a day and stick to it, than come back tomorrow.

2. Plan a max profit if you have limited time trading.

3. Personally I don't use indicator hence I am unable to advice you on indicator

4. Do replay on those days you actually make money and recapture the perspective on what you feel and analyzr when you made money

5. Pick only 1 product to trade or maximum 2, but personally I'll stick to one that is more index based instead of commodity.


6. Last but not least, treat the outcome of each trade as random even the best set up can still lose and employ the same caution you practice as though it is the last trade you will ever make.


That's my take, hahaha but I guess these grounds already covered by tons of other seniors




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  #48 (permalink)
Mcleod
Queens
 
 
Posts: 2 since Aug 2018
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Just my 2c.

The comments from others about your "edge" likely being related to a specific set of market conditions or context, is highly likely... and those conditions/contexts have simply changed without you realising it, and that's destroyed your edge.

It's a bitter pill to swallow, but it's absolutely true and happens to every trader. Countless books will tell you that the expert traders adjust their trading methods / edges to the current market conditions/context, they know how to recognize it, and change their methodology in an instant.

I thought I had an edge for trading the open on an index, it worked almost flawlessly for several months, day after day of profits, I felt like a superstar, but then market conditions changed, a massive swing happened, and my prior method for managing trades didn't work for such a significant swing, and I blew up my profits. Undeterred, I continued with my so called "edge", only to find it wasn't valid anymore.

The market conditions had changed, and I wasn't experienced enough to recognize that's what happened. In hindsight, I found that my process worked in a ranging market, and not a trending market, but it's only upon reflection and learning from my mistakes that I was able to work out where I'd gone wrong.

To fail, is to learn!!!

When it comes to trading full time..

When I initially traded full-time, it put me at risk of over-trading due to boredom and a desire to be in a trade. After all, I was at my desk, dedicating myself to trading full time, so I thought to myself, "I should be trading, this is what I'm here for, let's find a trade".

But that desire to trade, made me look for setups in other instruments, many of which I didn't have a genuine understanding of their "rhythm", never mind an understanding of the underlying influences/fundamentals, or market contexts.

This over-trading led to losses, which then induced "tilt", which led to trade after trade that simply didn't make sense and I simply couldn't control myself from revenge trading, attempting to make up the losses, massive losses, a horrific situation.

I felt intense shame and embarrassment, and when I reflected on those periods of tilt, I simply couldn't understand why I was unable to think rationally. The brutal truth is that "tilt" is when your emotions trigger the fight or flight process in our brain, which completely removes rational thought, and that's intensely dangerous in trading.

Check out discussions about tilt in a Poker context, it's extremely relevant, such as tilt on cardschat[dot]com

When I have something else to do, such as working-full time in another industry, I found myself more capable of monitoring the market, dedicated to the instrument I know best, keeping in touch with news and events without a burning desire to place a trade. Now that there was a lack of boredom, with other distractions to keep me occupied outside of trading, I found I was able to attain a feel for market conditions and be more capable of being strict with my trades, patiently waiting for particular setups to transpire.

You may find that you're more successful as a part-time trader, perhaps to the point that having a "normal" full time job isn't actually about earning money, it's just a means to an end to avoid boredom and makes you a better trader. It's OK to earn $100k/year from trading and keep a $35k/year full time job, if that shitty job makes you a highly profitable trader.

Many book and traders talk about having other things to do to avoid the boredom, like a hobby, but that's easier said then done in my experience, especially if all your friends/family/spouse are working normal jobs and aren't available to "hang out" on a shitty trading day where it makes more sense not to trade at all.

The other insidious emotion is over confidence which can come from a string of wins, the over confident then leads emotional trades, which leads to losses, which leads to tilt!

Overcoming the emotional hurdle is the biggest struggle in trading, and I suspect the added stresses of committing yourself to earning money full-time out of trading is just adding to that emotional weight, which isn't helpful, it's just a road to failure.

Been there... done that... still not quite on top of it though!

Try reading about "tilt" in poker, and also search for books like "The Psychology of Trading".

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  #49 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
virginia
 
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barabas View Post
.. I am thankful that I bought some options and trade those daily to make some income.

stick with what works...for you.

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  #50 (permalink)
thatcanuckguy
Winnipeg
 
 
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Brother, switch to paper trading for a while, and by a while I mean until you consistently start gaining reasonable profits.
And by this enough so that you are actually ahead by a good amount. Do this for several weeks or even months (paper trade) until you are comfortable. All the systems won't work because you are now trading under duress - take a break, just a few days, then paper and try various methods/ways.
Some will say paper is a waste of time but its not. Practice on paper, then before adding in money make sure your emotions are under control and then you should be good.

Good Luck Man

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  #51 (permalink)
RogerBond429
PHOENIX AZ USA
 
 
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Connect with Base Camp Trading.com and there live trading room. Reach out to either Thomas or Gary. You can live trade CL, NQ, ES Gold, Euro and Bonds which should set you up for long term success.

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  #52 (permalink)
 Leon Blokland 
Amsterdam Netherlands
 
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Take a look at order flow.

On the long therm you will never be profitable with old fashioned indicators in markets dominated by algos.

Good Luck!!

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  #53 (permalink)
soumen
Dhaka Bangladesh
 
 
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Yes getting a job is move in right direction and do not trade. Having said that right now the issue that I am working on is DOW and its vulnerability as an instrument. I think it is overpriced and any market downturn could impact it more than other instruments. Right now market is waiting with baited breath about Fed move and before the meeting its just anticipatory price movement. Having said that expect large volatility once all is said and done that is Fed is done its job. Huge profits or loss will be made (once in a lifetime opportunity) if you happened to be on the right side of the market. Good luck.

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  #54 (permalink)
 ZCars 
Birmingham/UK
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation/Prorealtime
Broker: Tradestation/Interactive Brokers
Trading: Mini and micro US Indexes/ DAX/ FX/VIX/GOLD
 
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Hello Barabas. You know the deal. And to echo what others have said:

Trade less. Sometimes I think if you could just sit on your hands for weeks/ months waiting for a global catastrophe then you'd be made for life. May take years, but you go all in and then walk away. Perhaps impossible to do that these days due to algos. US elections next year/ european political events/ Brexit at the end of October/ big key events. Can make profits for the year in a day or two.

Get rid of all distractions. Just you and the markets. Understand the narrative and why the markets are reacting the way they do. watching endless youtubers, bloggers, opinions, investment pros talking their own book etc, etc, will just mess with your composure. All I have is a squawk and bloomberg TV with no volume. Twitter feed. All gratis.

Simple tools. Try to get them all for free. A little account that gives squawk, data, news etc for free with a small deposit. Cut your costs to a minimum. You don't need much as long as it's fast and accurate. I have Tradestation for free including all realtime futures data. This is all the analysis you need. Great to be retail.

Live like a monk for a while if you can. As above, just you and the markets. Maybe a dog for company. Live on noodles. Yoga. Keep fit and positive. Need understanding partner. Very hard to find a woman who understands.

Trade lots of instruments. Volatility comes in many forms. Try and work with it. There's at least a good trade each day but it may very well not be ES. Yesterday was a good example: CL/ GBP/ YM all moved significantly.

Don't take life too seriously. We are all lucky. We don't have to walk 5 miles to a water well or wait for militia to arrive in our village and rape our daughters. We are all blessed. Relax, enjoy the good things in life. They are not free but not too costly either. Just trade to live. To have the freedoms it brings. Who needs to be stinking rich?

The dream is being sold everywhere. Business of the dream sellers is to extract your cash. All the stinking bullshit in this industry. Turn it all off. I sit with my feeds and charts everyday. I make enough to live simply. I watch and wait. Just me and the markets working together. Do what the markets tell you to do. Be happy. That's it.

It's a lonely job with many pitfalls. Discipline is the key. Sounds like you're almost there. Good luck.

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  #55 (permalink)
Mantrad
Tel Aviv Israel
 
 
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Trading CL outright with a 200 dollar stop loss imo is going to be very difficult, random noise or sudden moves will kill several days work and have youpulling your hair out.
I would suggest trading calendar spreads flies or boxes , this way you are massively reducing the rE ange of the position you take , and then scale into and hold your position for a longer period of time.
You can leave your take profit orders in the market and carry on with your life while periodically checking your positions.
The more legs you add to the trade the more obvious the entry and exit points tend to be although then you have increased commissions to contend with.
Also you make much more efficient use of your capital.

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  #56 (permalink)
 bify 
Green Bay, WI
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: CL
 
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Hi, this is Attila, It is hart to obey to the indicators but we have to do it. Computers are trading as well and they trigger each others. So let's follow the flow.
What you can see on my chart I use Renko chart. I my opinion time in no relevant in momentum trading.
Rules: Don't trade against SMA 50 and HMA 42. You can play whit the numbers as you like but set a rule and stick with it.
You will make money IF YOU FOLLOW IT.

Trading is same as driving. Don't drive against the direction of traffic. It's funny but I bet you would not take the off ramp and speed against the incoming traffic on the HWY. Same as with trading . We load more contracts to take us back to 0 but we are on the WRONG SIDE OF THE TRADE.

Do the loading when is a pull back on the right side. On the chart take the 56 level and ride it till it proofs you otherwise.
Take a brake when is pulling back and go again.

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  #57 (permalink)
 Fxfutures1976 
London
 
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Trading: Futures and forex
 
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Ive asked you some questions in an earlier reply. Im not sure if you have answered, if not, I presume you may not know the answer which is very concerning for you. Ill ask one more time.

1) What is you win rate percentage over the last year to six months minimum.

2) What is your minimum Risk reward per trade.

The reason why these are so relevant to your strategy is that if you are only taking $200 wins with $200 risk you are obviously going to need a high win rate of a minimum of 60 % for it to even be worth it, which in the real world is near on impossible to maintain.

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  #58 (permalink)
 Anand Jagdeo 
AJ
Shelburne
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: Amp Futures
Trading: currency futures
 
Posts: 7 since May 2013
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Good morning Barabas. I may not be the best one to give you advice as I am currently trading simulation after blowing up my account in December. I have since taken the time to explore this site which I never really did before even though I have been a member for a couple of years and have found some very useful indicators which is helping a lot with trading such as TDI, Price Action Swing Pro & Oscillator, SuperTrend U11 and Trigger Lines. I am using these along with some of the standard indicators like the moving averages and Pivots and it is working quite well. Also try trading less volatile markets like the currencies and NQ (volatile but smaller tick value $5).Good luck

Anand

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  #59 (permalink)
 Anand Jagdeo 
AJ
Shelburne
 
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bify View Post
Hi, this is Attila, It is hart to obey to the indicators but we have to do it. Computers are trading as well and they trigger each others. So let's follow the flow.
What you can see on my chart I use Renko chart. I my opinion time in no relevant in momentum trading.
Rules: Don't trade against SMA 50 and HMA 42. You can play whit the numbers as you like but set a rule and stick with it.
You will make money IF YOU FOLLOW IT.

Trading is same as driving. Don't drive against the direction of traffic. It's funny but I bet you would not take the off ramp and speed against the incoming traffic on the HWY. Same as with trading . We load more contracts to take us back to 0 but we are on the WRONG SIDE OF THE TRADE.

Do the loading when is a pull back on the right side. On the chart take the 56 level and ride it till it proofs you otherwise.
Take a brake when is pulling back and go again.

Good morning. Would you be willing to share your strategy and chart template. I like what I see. Would be greatly appreciated. Thanks

Anand

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  #60 (permalink)
 ldcapital 
FORT WORTH
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: tastyworks
Trading: es, nq cl
 
Posts: 6 since Jun 2018
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Congrats on having the courage to admit you're having problems and asking for help. I'm close to where you are, except
I'm still working PT. There is some good advice in the previous posts. Don't wait until you absolutely have to look for work.
Look now and and don't let yourself get deeper in the hole, even if its part-time. There is no shame in getting a job. Remember, you have not failed, this is just part of the journey. You haven't failed until you give up. Just keep working on your skills. God bless and best wishes.

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  #61 (permalink)
 andrej 
London, UK
 
Experience: Master
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Just delete all the indicators, forget everything you have ever read, and watch the price. Scalp with max contracts you can afford, and get modest targets. Stop reading or following any gurus or been-through-all bees.

That's called ballstrading.com, you can register the domain. It's available at this time - https://prntscr.com/ok0o5r

Then start teaching people to trade price not imaginations.

Don't get back working!

Cheers!

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  #62 (permalink)
 YogaTrading 
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
 
Experience: Beginner
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MiniP View Post
it sounds like you are possibly over leverged, if you are trading all those at once it could wreck a smaller account ( idk account size)

I would suggest you trade one instrument and go from there. Thats what i started doing and I honestly make more money with less trades

-P

"Everything we Want and Desire is on the other side of FEAR !"
George Addair

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  #63 (permalink)
 tandem 
Vilnius Lithuania
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Exocharts.com, Jigsaw, MW
Trading: BTC, MGC, ES
 
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Karabas Barabas is that you ?

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  #64 (permalink)
 barabas 
Chicago IL USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradestation
Broker: Tradestation
Trading: ES,NQ, CL
 
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Fxfutures1976 View Post
Ive asked you some questions in an earlier reply. Im not sure if you have answered, if not, I presume you may not know the answer which is very concerning for you. Ill ask one more time.

1) What is you win rate percentage over the last year to six months minimum.

2) What is your minimum Risk reward per trade.

The reason why these are so relevant to your strategy is that if you are only taking $200 wins with $200 risk you are obviously going to need a high win rate of a minimum of 60 % for it to even be worth it, which in the real world is near on impossible to maintain.


Unfortunately, I can answer question one as the tradestation graph/report for my account is not accurate and I do not keep a separate trading journal.

But minimum risk to reward per trade is 2/1 but I have a trailing stop after the profit so it could be higher if the profit target gets hit and continues to trend.

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 TraderDoc2 
Plainview
 
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After you get a job and have some consistent income, if you are still interested in trading, you might want to consider a significant departure from what you've probably been doing up until now. Have you considered algorithmic or semi-algorithmic trading? I have utilized a program that creates strategies for automation using genetic programming techniques. An advantage is that you can create a system that works both on
in-sample (data seen by the computer when creating the strategy) and on out-of-sample (unseen) data, and which will use your custom indicator(s) if and only if - it/they- actually show up as representing an improvement in the created strategies. Otherwise, you will still get many strategies for consideration, but they may not use your particular indicator(s). Using such a tool, it is possible to systematically develop strategies. If the strategy begins to fail (and nearly all strategies do fail at some point) you can relatively easily create a new strategy that works better for the current market environment. However, it should still be based on a long period of price history (I usually use about 10 years). There is at least one program available on the market that gives you a two week trial and then is reasonably priced. If you have some programming ability or can learn, it is possible to modify the code produced by the program, and you can use any custom indicator or just the indicators included with the basic program. If you think the exit technique the program comes up with is not to your liking, you can change/edit it - but it preferably ought to be based on testing (including out-of-sample) you have done in advance. If the entries prove sub-optimal, you can either revise the code yourself (making sure you have tested on out-of-sample data) or you can create a whole new strategy. This way the algorithmic strategy gets you into your trades instantaneously when the correct conditions are met. You can choose to use a neural net as part of the entry condition, which helps to prevent over-trading. You preferably should use a good desk-top computer with a lot of memory for creating strategies using a tool like this.

Good Luck!

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  #66 (permalink)
 YogaTrading 
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
 
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Barabas.......I don’t post a lot here either, but as some have mentioned it “called”

I’ve read ever response and every one of them are wrapped in good nuggets.

All of them are written by people who share a very common thread…Human Behavior…the difference between the responses is how they responded to the exact same situation as you are in now.
They found something to bring change into their PLAN
Do you have a plan? A True plan…. not in your head but written to the exact point of every move you make. If not do so...you write it… you own it…the brain can make changes in the middle of a stressful moment an screw you every time. Trust in that!!

Human behavior is the code. The man with a wife psychologist has an “edge” in living with her. His entire response was based in how he has solved or is trying to solve his human behavior of over trading, which is wrapped in the human emotion of how we deal with greed………..been there myself….my own daughter is a complex trauma phycologist and its paid dividends in understanding human behavior

You wrote: I have traded the markets for years. Good years and some bad years.

Go back and see if your process has changed……….if it worked : what happened?

you wrote: In the last 3 years during my working hours I was able to make some good money.

I am not a proponent of trying to work an learn to trade, for me it was to difficult or I should say I felt in my mind it would take me to long, that’s me. The best advice was given to you in other responses.

you wrote: I had a system making me $300 a day avg for 5 months. So I decided to quit my job, taking a pay cut, to follow my dream as a trader. For the past 3 months I have been living from just the markets. Yes I had some good trades but the bad ones were there too.

To short of a time frame to go live with a limited account. You may not have had enough statistical history to adapt rules to. (profit in an account is not statically driven information) I once made 25k doing pork bellies…just sheer rookie luck!! And this was back before the industry of day trading is what it is now.


you wrote: I was trading just futures and lost $8,000 in two weeks. (One contract each usually ES,CL,NQ,ZB) I had taken a break for two weeks came back and still felt like I can't master it. I am thankful that I bought some options and trade those daily to make some income.

Do one or the other, options or futures but both at this moment could be splitting focus, and both require a different set of rules.

you wrote: I think my biggest problem is to find an indicator or system to follow my rules.

Not sure I got that .Write your rules……know them………if your writing rules to follow a lagging indicator, your adjusting to that. You write below about having an indicator….but you say above about finding something else?

you wrote: I think my biggest problem is to find an indicator or system to follow my rules.
No it is not.

you wrote: “I have one indicator I always use on a 5 min chart and it has made me some good money but then there is that one trade that takes out my stop loss right away and shoot me back down. my profit target is trailing stop, go for $100 profit then move stop to break even and move stop ever $100 profit. Now I love crude..... 10 cent move is nothing in crude so I usually put my initail stop loss at $200. This worked out great at times. Walked away with $200, $300, and max $1,000 trades. But then loss, loss, and loss.”

You are over leveraged in your account, you should switch to micro minis now….you should write a trading plan down to the second and have all the scenarios worked out in advance.
ie..I work my trade execution in advance….not in just looking for profit but in understanding how much am I risking, what is my loss. I have a fixed non-negotiable loss limit never changes ever!!!!
Can a trade go against you...yes...question is: are your prepared and have a plan???
A 60 % win rate still losses 40 % of the time. It is part of trading; it is how you respond!!!
Yes I move my stop up…but never down...never!!!! Never chase money, never!!!!
Understand how you behave in the loss; can u accept it?…. You seem comfortable taking a 8k loss…and that in itself is a human behavior that should bother you!! It bothered me when I read it and I have a 2500 per trade loss limit…………..Find the bottom of your stomach pit!!!
Know a “loss amount” that does not evoke fear!!! Fear changes your mindset instantly and makes you do what you should Not be doing!!!!
Yes of course traders have exit targets for profit but that’s not on the FEAR side of human behavior that is in the Greed side of human behavior. Different set of rules!!!! Completely.

you wrote: It might just be so stressed out from trying to learning every indicator out there that has me lost but then again the two week break would of help me with that... nope.

Stop with the indicators, you have 3 years of fundamental experience, go back to basics, stop presuming in your mind your intuitiveness will keep working, it will not. You need statistical knowledge. Must be able to replicate the same thing every single time you take a position, it should never change.

You wrote:“Over the years of trading I have foung out there is no holy grain indicator or system. There will be losing trades and just avoid the big ones. Don't over trade.”

You may have found that tid bit……but you did not learn that lesson!!!

(Human Behavior), find out what you are good at and ask yourself WHY??
What do I do in that moment of learning and experience that propels me to become good?
Find your human behavior triggers…look at Steph Curry for an example…his process!!!
Before every game, never changes a second.
Your human behavior is your code…as it is for all traders, it is not an indicator, as one man wrote, “it’s how you use them”…… Rule based …… how do you respond in the moment!!!

I wrote this for you an for me.....as I do know exactly where you are in your search to be profitable consistently.

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  #67 (permalink)
shah804020
srinagar+india
 
 
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first of all .......kudos 4 accepting ur situation...... been trading for 12 yrs ..was not profitable for 8...super CPT for past 4...... it comes down to how much u know......and u dont know much...sorry 4 being blunt....i trade crude nickel .nifty futures and equities ..from INDIA

essentially u lack a plan & that stems from lack of confidence..been there too........so get down to trading mini or micro lots if necessary..try to get say 3 or 4 points on smaller size ..even say 5 or 10 shares.. consistency is key and note down ur thinking...collect singles as opposed to $100$200...so on....or u can go to the dreaded job

here is what u need to go through to fill the gap...first go and watch some free videos at MY INVESTING CLUB....their death line concept is amazing......those r two amazing traders and a wonderful mission...essentially supply demand zone.

second learn about market & volume profile......concept..see TRADER DALE on youtube..then see what u dont know....
.
read these two books by mike bellafiore....playbook & one good trade....

for any instrument try this combo on one chart any TF........ MACD adx & OBV indicator and see the profits unfold....

lastly once again have some part time job......and have a method to unload ur frustration...either gym or sex....or both

Hope it helps........do check out both the reccomendo.....i m not affiliated to them in any way..just sheer respect for what they do....and take ur time......see this twitter guy @tradingfish

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  #68 (permalink)
 Jtfacts 
brooklyn
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MarketDelta
Trading: Futures
 
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You wrote "There is at least one program available on the market that gives you a two week trial and then is reasonably priced. If you have some programming ability or can learn, it is possible to modify the code produced by the program, and you can use any custom indicator or just the indicators included with the basic program."

What is the name of the program? Also, where do you suggest I start learning about Algorithmic programming? Thanks for you help.

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  #69 (permalink)
mzm22
Provo + UT/USA
 
 
Posts: 5 since Jun 2019
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Do a search for Raghee Horner Grab candles (free), I use that in conjunction with another indicator and it's worked well for me. PM me if you want a little more detail on that.

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  #70 (permalink)
MrStLilSlimSclap
Eindhoven + NL
 
 
Posts: 3 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 0 given, 5 received

I would suggest looking at different markets. This might sound out-of-comfort zone for now, but during the summer liquidity in markets tend to decrease because of the holidays. This causes markets to move differently. I use to trade the ES, but during summer I trade treasuries. Usually treasuries would be way to slow for me, but because of the reduction in liquidity I prefer it over the ES.

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  #71 (permalink)
 seattle7 
Seattle, WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation + Bookmap
Trading: ES only
 
Posts: 24 since Aug 2016
Thanks: 13 given, 59 received

My story:

1. While working at a day job, I traded end of the day and doubled my account in three months. That led me to think "If only I could watch the market realtime, think of the money I could make."

2. I quit my day job and began looking for the holy grail. I bought and read about every trading book there was. I signed up for about every trading seminar there was. I tried about every indicator there was. In TradeStation, I programmed and tested about every custom indicator I could imagine. While I didn't lose significant money, I didn't gain significant money while trading. I stayed more or less even over time.

3. After doing that for twenty, yes, twenty, years, I quit and got another day job.

4. Ten years later, I quit my day job and went back to trading. This time, I abandoned all the books, seminars, gurus, indicators, etc. and just began looking at multi-time frame, ES price charts, together with volume, during the day session. After a while, a long while, I began to see repeatable patterns that led to profitable trades and minimal losses.

5. That's all that's worked for me and all I that can recommend.

My best to you in your pursuit.

Richard Wills, ES trader & CME member

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  #72 (permalink)
mzm22
Provo + UT/USA
 
 
Posts: 5 since Jun 2019
Thanks: 0 given, 6 received

Hey Barabas, I tried to reply to your PM but I was prevented from doing so due to the fact that I have not posted 5 posts yet. So I am not ignoring you and will try to post 3 more quality posts before I can respond. Alternatively, you could reach me at mzaslanian @ g m a i l to directly message me that way as I am happy to respond to your pm.

Thanks,

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  #73 (permalink)
Ecclesiastes
Las Vegas NV USA
 
 
Posts: 1 since Jan 2019
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

Wow, that takes some humility to post that.

As you’ve probably guessed, and I’ve seen others post, market indicators are just that.. and most of them are lagging indicators.

Remember the market is nothing more than a giant, infinite auction that is constantly in search of further information to establish value. Price action is the result of the market facilitating trade so that the market may find value.. and it is a constantly moving target.

Price action and value are the only 2 things I trade on. Indicators are nice and they make pretty pictures and such, but the core definition of the market is an auction, with value established by price.


Good luck.. and the others here are right.. you can’t trade in the zone if you’re worried about paying bills and eating.

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  #74 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
Salt Lake City, UT
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Trading: ES, 6E
 
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Posts: 295 since Aug 2010
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I have to agree with Seattle7. Your answer does not lie in indicators.

You need to simplify everything. Stop looking at multiple markets. Become an expert at trading one market. Become Consistently Profitable Trading one market.

Then, if you want, start looking at a second. But only look and study. Do NOT trade it yet. Look and study it for several months until you can get a grasp on it's personality and it's nuances.

Order Flow seems to be most trader's preference. It is for me. What Volume is coming in to the market. Is it effecting price? Who is in control of price?

I trade the ES with a 500 Volume chart. (If you are, STOP changing charts, time frames and indicators). I trade a Volume chart because, to me, in my mind, I want to compare apples to apples. So if I want to look at Volume and order flow then a Volume chart makes sense.

I still trade with NT7. Sorry, I am used to trading it and I'm not ready to graduate to NT8. I trade with what I am used to and what I am comfortable with. All that said, I return to my hero gomi. Maybe his work can be duplicated on NT8. I don't need to research that. Perhaps one day I will have to.

Here's my 500 Volume chart.

The first panel has gomi's Bid/Ask Ratio. It breaks down Buyers and Sellers per bar. It tells me who is in control.

The second panel has gomi's COT. It breaks down how many Buyers and Sellers from the High and Low of each bar. It tells me how hard Buyers or Sellers are working to move price for directional continuation.

I like these because they are not "setting" dependent. They simply show the number of Buyers and Sellers per bar.

The lines on the main panel are from MyDynamicPivots and draws Fibs from the HOD and LOD. I like lines on my charts because it gives me a frame of reference to reference price action.

Hope it helped. Keep it Simple.

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  #75 (permalink)
 TraderDoc2 
Plainview
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation
Broker: TradeStation
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 15 since Mar 2012
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Jtfacts View Post
You wrote "There is at least one program available on the market that gives you a two week trial and then is reasonably priced. If you have some programming ability or can learn, it is possible to modify the code produced by the program, and you can use any custom indicator or just the indicators included with the basic program."

What is the name of the program? Also, where do you suggest I start learning about Algorithmic programming? Thanks for you help.

I don't want to violate any forum posting rules - could not find the rules to check if I can mention the specific program
which of course is a commercial product (I have no financial interest in it, though). If you send a private message to meI'll be glad to provide it. Alternatively, you could do a Google search for :

michael bryant, trading systems,genetic algorithms


For learning about algorithmic trading, you should read the manual that comes with the program and describes its features, and read Michael Bryant's newsletters.

Kevin Davey is also a good source of information and ideas:




Although Kevin Davey is not necessarily a big supporter of using this type of genetic programming to build strategies,
he is definitely in the algorithmic trading camp. I believe he prefers to find a tendency in the market that he can logically understand and explain and write his own computer code to take advantage of it. With Bryant's program you may not really understand the "why", the computer just finds the strategy from indicators the program has or that you provide to the program. So with the program you do have to be careful that the result is statistically significant and robust with respect to any inputs and parameters determined by the program or used in the indicators - after all, you need it to continue to be profitable for some amount of time into the future.

I am also influenced by John Ehlers - most of my custom indicators are either copies of or borrow ideas from his writings/books/publications/articles



I think the way to go is to develop a small portfolio of systems on different trading instruments and different time frames. Trade very small size initially (I only trade one contract generally). Use a quantitative measure of system quality (e.g. SQN of Van Tharp).



Continually rate and re-rate your individual systems as to their quality. Determine your average system quality, and the standard deviation of system quality for all your traded systems. Any system that falls more than one standard deviation below average needs to be retired and replaced with something better.

You need to continually increase your average system quality as you weed out the poorer systems or those that fail as time goes on, and as you become more proficient in system development.

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  #76 (permalink)
 SLMacKellar 
Rio Vista + CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradeStation, NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, NQ
 
Posts: 5 since May 2016
Thanks: 1 given, 12 received

I am a firm believer that the market has a very repeatable and understandable structure. The tricky bit is that structure is played out over multiple timeframes. So what looks chaotic on a 2 minute will be an aha moment if you look at a 15 minute or a 60 minute chart. And in general all time frames are reponded to, ie price will always bounce at a resistance point but will bounce to a different degree depending on the energy of the market in that direction. Add to that the fact that bars form in a relatively repeatable manner (a green bar will start, go down, go up and then retrace a little as an example) and that is happening on all time scales too, and a larger timeframe has multiple smaller bars making it up and you get a lot of repeatability that looks chaotic. I think in physics this would be a fourier analysis and I am sure some quant somewhere does just that to price action.

Understanding this has helped my trading a lot.

What I would recommend is print out every days trading on multiple time frames and study the print out marking it up so you understand why everything that happened happened. It will eventually make total sense. Once you spend your time saying "Of course the market did this here" and you can predict pivots based on this type of analysis it makes trading a lot easier. Then pick indicators that enhance your predictive abilities, rather than picking an indicator and having it tell you what is happening in the market. Personally I use a 20 period SMA and a modified stochastic. I made the early mistake of doing this the wrong way around and was constantly surprised when the indicator got it wrong.

Then you can develop a system of your choice on top of that understanding. I suspect your system will then be pretty robust.

Hope this helps. BTW I am still learning but even writing this out has helped me understand it further. Also I got a bit peeved by all the people who think the markets are unpredictable and chaotic. Just a pin ball machine with lots of people at the controls.

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  #77 (permalink)
 samiotis 
Gilroy california USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS, MT
Broker: TDAmeritrade Ninja Trader, TastyWorks, Robinhood
Trading: Options, MES
 
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seattle7 View Post
My story:

1. While working at a day job, I traded end of the day and doubled my account in three months. That led me to think "If only I could watch the market realtime, think of the money I could make."

2. I quit my day job and began looking for the holy grail. I bought and read about every trading book there was. I signed up for about every trading seminar there was. I tried about every indicator there was. In TradeStation, I programmed and tested about every custom indicator I could imagine. While I didn't lose significant money, I didn't gain significant money while trading. I stayed more or less even over time.

3. After doing that for twenty, yes, twenty, years, I quit and got another day job.

4. Ten years later, I quit my day job and went back to trading. This time, I abandoned all the books, seminars, gurus, indicators, etc. and just began looking at multi-time frame, ES price charts, together with volume, during the day session. After a while, a long while, I began to see repeatable patterns that led to profitable trades and minimal losses.

5. That's all that's worked for me and all I that can recommend.

My best to you in your pursuit.

Richard Wills, ES trader & CME member

Right on seattle7 you got the picture the only way to trade...............

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  #78 (permalink)
 steven2 
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 7
Trading: Emini
 
Posts: 28 since Dec 2015
Thanks: 38 given, 22 received

1. Risk management is CRUCIAL - I would limit my risk to more than 2-3% of the account per trade.

2. Can trade the new Micros to achieve #1 above. Again - risk management...

3. You could either trade one instrument and multiple setups, or a few instruments and a single setup. Singe setup with a single instrument is hard to do, as setups could be rare. I am actually gravitating towards the latter.

4. Single timeframe.

5. Find a setup that give you advanced warnings a few bars early, e.g. Cup & Handle (my favorites). That way you have time to decide.

6. Trade no faster than 5 minute chart and see #5 above.

My 2 cents. Hope it helps.

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  #79 (permalink)
Howard Roark
Oslo Norway
 
 
Posts: 144 since Aug 2018
Thanks: 135 given, 111 received

So, there's a lot of people giving categorical advice here and a common theme seems to be that indicators are useless.

I'm curious - how many of you people are consistently profitable and making good money in the markets?

I know a guy who's very profitable in the markets, but he keeps his methodology secret. What I do know is that he uses a lot of indicators. What I also know is that most of his indicators, if not all, are custom coded and with proprietary code. And while at it - I also know he spent 10 + years before he started making consistent and really good money.

Personally, I have a lot of indicators which are custom coded and very useful for what I want to do. But they're not MACD or stochastics or stuff like that. I don't get signal from them per se. But they help me track the market. And yes - they're custom coded.

So, saying that indicators are not useful seems to me a very ignorant statement.


barabas View Post
I think my biggest problem is to find an indicator or system to follow my rules. I have one indicator I always use on a 5 min chart and it has made me some good money but then there is that one trade that takes out my stop loss right away and shoot me back down. my profit target is trailing stop, go for $100 profit then move stop to break even and move stop ever $100 profit. Now I love crude..... 10 cent move is nothing in crude so I usually put my initail stop loss at $200. This worked out great at times. Walked away with $200, $300, and max $1,000 trades. But then loss, loss, and loss.

I meditate ever day and try to learn more about the markets every day.

It might just be so stressed out from trying to learning every indicator out there that has me lost but then again the two week break would of help me with that... nope.

Over the years of trading I have foung out there is no holy grain indicator or system. There will be losing trades and just avoid the big ones. Don't over trade.

barabas,

This might not be what you want to hear, but I get the feeling you're gambling and don't sufficiently know what you're doing. You're still trying to find your way and that's OKAY, but it should precede live trading and it should precede quitting your job.

Let me ask you bluntly:

What's the most rational use of your time, money and resources right now?

Trying to trade and hoping to make some money? Win some, lose some? Or maybe lose all your savings?

Or stop trading and focus on studying the markets full time?

In my opinion - if you want to focus full time on the markets and have the opportunity to do so, great! But make sure you spend your time wisely.

From the questions you're asking and your statement of being in deep sh't - it's clear to me that you're not ready for live trading at all.

There's people in this thread who told you they used 20 years to become profitable. I just mentioned one guy who spent 10 years.

Personally, I've been full-time trading several times and have been following the markets for 15 + years now. I actually got an education (engineering) after my last attempt. Meanwhile, I've been working on my trading part-time.

When I started working full-time, I expected to be back to part-time trading after 6 months. 2 years later I was still crafting my methodology with huge amounts of time invested in studying and custom coding.

I have now quit my job and hope to finally crack it as a full-time trader. I feel prepared. And have tied down most loose ends. But it's taken far more time than I initially expected it to.

Just because you quit your job and spent a lot of time already doesn't mean you're ready.

Regards,

Howard

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  #80 (permalink)
 toughtrades 
Munich Germany
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IB
Trading: Dax FDAX
 
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Posts: 5 since Dec 2017
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Hello Barabas,

I think you should get a job which allows you to trade and helps you to find your market and edge in the market. I do this now for over 22 years and 16 years for myself, I taught traders and from all my experience in this field. I know that almost everyone can be taught to make money, that being said. The BIG BUT - not as a daytrader and living solely from trading. It´s just a fact at least from my experience, that not everyone can handle the mental and physical stress which comes with that profession. I know very profitable traders they can´t trade futures if their life would depend on it. But they make a lot of money with very great risk control with small drawdowns with stock´s (with a systematic and statistic approach). Or seasonal trading, FX or options, etc. You have to find the product that fits your mentality.

And the most important thing of all, I don´t understand why everyone thinks after 2-3 month of reading 5 books watching 10 Youtube vids and adding some indicators to a chart, they could make a living trading. And the worst thing of all is paper trading because you don´t feel the pain from losing. Use real money micro-lots CFD´s etc. Only real money will show you the real deal. And saves you a lot of false promises and dreams. Would you board a plane if you knew the pilot read a few books watched a few vids and is a great simulation pilot. I think we all know the answer to that question.
Trading is a highly demanding task and demands constant studying and training. It takes time, it took me 18 months to be profitable with my own money. And I was already 5 years in the business as a broker, market maker and trader.

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  #81 (permalink)
 steven2 
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 7
Trading: Emini
 
Posts: 28 since Dec 2015
Thanks: 38 given, 22 received

I was very profitable for over six months beating SPY (my target indicator), mostly swing and some day trading stocks.

Until I saw the nice profit in my account and greed took over. So I lost 12% over two weeks trading MU while Trump was imposing sanctions on China. Sold close to the low before the stock bounced all the way back.

Why I took the trade? I saw a great setup on the daily chart. Why I failed so badly? In my optimism and carelessness, failed to put a real market stop loss (stop in the market, NOT mental stop).

So again the moral of the story for me is don't trade unless you have hard stops in the market with your broker. If you cannot do that, you don't have a good setup and your are not at least 60% confident of success.

Remember that you can always come back in if you get stopped out and a good setup appears...

If you lose 3% (the max loss I would allow), you can come back. Losing 12% messes up with the brain and it becomes very hard to come back.

Always remember that even with the best setups, you can fail 40% of the time. So RISK CONTROL.

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  #82 (permalink)
 seattle7 
Seattle, WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation + Bookmap
Trading: ES only
 
Posts: 24 since Aug 2016
Thanks: 13 given, 59 received

I have been asked for the parameters of the multiple time frame price charts I use for trading ES. They are:
1. 80 tick chart, for momentary price action.
2. 640 (and occasionally 1280) tick chart, for all of today's price action.
At least in my experience, tick charts reveal the price patterns I seek better than time-based charts.
I also use a 10 second chart, not because I find time-based charts helpful, but only because tick charts won't chart multiple instruments, and I want to chart ES, $TICK, & $TIKI on the same chart, so I use a 10 second chart to do that.

Richard Wills, ES trader & CME member

Here's a photo of my 640 tick chart for yesterday, ESU19 July 26, 2019

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  #83 (permalink)
 Flyer873 
Gainesville, Texas/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: OFA, Jigsaw, Bookmap
Trading: Anything that moves
 
Posts: 20 since Jul 2013
Thanks: 5 given, 73 received

barabas,
I have spent the last 12 years trying every method from stocks, options and futures. None have ever really worked for me. Stocks you have too worry about if the CEO is going to get arrested for child pornography. Options you have to follow 2 different prices the underlying stock and then the price of the option. Futures are news driven; you have to worry what the dollar, ECB or the fed is going to do next. Each product has its drawbacks. I, myself, am at the same point you are. Frustrated!
I've come to realize that there are some people that want to be a BULLFIGHTER but once they enter the ring and see the size of the bull and how big those horns really are, they come to realize that all they really wanted to do was dress up in a too-too, wear a funny hat and carry a cape.

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  #84 (permalink)
 Meklon 
New York, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: RTY, ES, YM, NQ, CL, NG, GC, HG
 
Posts: 60 since Oct 2016
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Scottiep View Post
Barabas-

Like you, I left a $170K job 12 years ago to pursue day trading futures. I made that decision based on some "Christians", 2-3 firms, who I naively trusted and believed. Frankly, I was a sucker. My system worked like yours until the crash of 2008.

But, since then, I have lost money every year for 11 years. I quit a while back, when I was informed that only 5%-10% of day traders actually make ANY money- and very few make what I did 12 years ago. This losing proposition- 90/95% lose has been known for 30 years!! But, the wealthy firms who take your money are never held accountable.

There are dozens, maybe hundreds, of charlatans who claim they have the system that is 70%+ accurate, but do not disclose they have inverted, (perverted), risk/reward ratios. With these nonsensical 'systems' a trader would have to be 'right' 90%+ of the time to make anything. I have tried at least a dozen of these 'B.S. systems', which is why only 5%-10% make any money- even after many years of experience. It is a very dishonest "business" and, I encourage you to do what I did: accept it is a losing proposition, just like gambling in Vegas, lick your wounds and move on. Don't waste any more of your time on this hoax. It is the ultimate Scam and the CFTC does little to protect the consumer. Get out while you can. Without inside information or omniscience you will fail.

I ask every "Guru" (Con Artist) who tries to pitch me their B.S. 1 question: "Please send me a copy- with all your personal information blacked out- showing what your actual profit or loss was the last 3, 6 or 12 months". None ever do that. In fact, all they do is trade in Simulation, and they make their real money selling their systems. Think of it: How can a moderator observe charts all day long, or even 1/2 day, and 'chat' with members in their phony 'trading rooms'.

Once you've lost money with these bogus 'systems'- try getting it back. I got 40% back, from 1 firm, when I filed a complaint with my State's Dept. of consumer affairs. They acted on my behalf and I got 40% returned- 2 years later.

I get tempted to look at charts but stopped doing so long ago. There is a reason professional trading prop firms, and institutional trading firms refer to "Us retail Wannabe Traders" as 'Paper'. Because all we do is give them our money 90%-95% of the time. It is a losing proposition, with very, very few exceptions. Day Trading is a Con- but the Con Artists will claim anything to get your money. The odds are against you 9-1. A losing bet. Sorry, but the truth is the truth. The game is stacked against you. Best wishes.

Scottiep

This is the MOST ill informed post I have read in past 20 years. No, seriously….while you find no better way of laying out your frustration and failure, you also misinforming the community and discouraging other people from analyzing they mistakes and becoming successful. "...I quit a while back, when I was informed that only 5%-10% of day traders actually make ANY money...." - You "were informed"??? Really??? Who was that Good Samaritan who offered to you this priceless piece of information? Look...any person who have ever made it in this business of trading (including myself) will tell you that trading is SIMPLE but NOT EASY. I would be the first person to admit that this is a VERY difficult field to conquer and it takes YEARS of practice, self-analyses, thousands of hours of practice and restructuring of yourself psychologically before you even start to see glimpse of the hope. But to say that this game is rigged, that this is Vegas, that this is hoax is not only preposterous but also ill advised.

I understand, you did not make it...I also understand that you lost money. Perhaps you are correct and your best place is in the corporate world or whatever the business you were making your 170K a year....but at least be fair and look at what YOU as a trader did wrong and WHY you have failed instead of telling people they should sue their broker for their own mistakes.

Market does not care about YOU, ME oar ANYONE else. The only function of the market is to advertise price in order to attract buyers and sellers, conduct an auction to facilitate the trade and offer the liquidity. It's what YOU as a trader do with this information and how YOU execute your trading plan that is determining whether you will become successful in trading or not.

I think you ought to take your own advise - lick your wounds and get back to happily making that 170K a year while not posting nonsense on this board, discouraging people from learning and becoming successfull.

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  #85 (permalink)
 steven2 
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 7
Trading: Emini
 
Posts: 28 since Dec 2015
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Flyer873 View Post
barabas,
I have spent the last 12 years trying every method from stocks, options and futures. None have ever really worked for me. Stocks you have too worry about if the CEO is going to get arrested for child pornography. Options you have to follow 2 different prices the underlying stock and then the price of the option. Futures are news driven; you have to worry what the dollar, ECB or the fed is going to do next. Each product has its drawbacks. I, myself, am at the same point you are. Frustrated!
I've come to realize that there are some people that want to be a BULLFIGHTER but once they enter the ring and see the size of the bull and how big those horns really are, they come to realize that all they really wanted to do was dress up in a too-too, wear a funny hat and carry a cape.

Hi Flyer, good points. If one trades stocks on daily chart (not day trading) then one can easily diversify across different sectors (or even add gold, oil, bonds, or derivatives). That way, no one stock or sector can hurt one badly. I used to get out of stocks around earnings, I think now I would just hold, IF adequate diversification is implemented. After all, in earnings, some stocks zoom and some crash (and some CEO gets arrested, and some CEO is released LOL), so it evens out.

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  #86 (permalink)
 hhl3rd 
Mountain Home, Aransas, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT7 NT8 MultiCharts IB
Trading: ES , NQ, GC
 
Posts: 5 since Aug 2018
Thanks: 6 given, 7 received

I think what you have said is that if you had known when to fade the system signals you would have made
quite a bit of money... Is there a go / no go qualifier or buy / sell polarity qualifier that when overlaid will
give the right decision ? I don't think there is a fast enough "canned" sideways market indicator. A Range
chart can be stylized to give long wick reversal bars that show price rejection. Sideways market follows
reversal, reversal... with no normal trend bars in between. It is S/R and contextual as to how much sideways
to expect but is fast signal.

It looks like your decision to go full time was highly dependent on a daytrading 5 min bar system that has now
failed or gone into a drawdown phase. In a widely swinging or strongly trending market where price extension
is in the direction of the trend almost any indicator showing the trend will work with your rules not matter what
your rules happen to be. Once the trend or big swing changes direction the former "best entry" will be a fakeout
and factual best entry in the new direction. So having pegged this window of change , phase transition , polarity
shift , the system says buy but you sell. So in a sense the system is not well specified to allow it to accommodate
a change in price behavior , often a change in trend manifestation. This may be megaphone pattern or a dead
flat market ledge that chops with false bar breakouts. If you are buying a bar breakout in an uptrend then see
if there is a way to buy later but lower in the price action , perhaps mid channel or something. If you can't tweak
the system in a few days then longer timeframes and other income is likely appropriate. Also, systems tend to
come back to life when the market gets back into their profit window conditions. So if you adopt an inverse entry
you may need to know when best to revert back to the original system for larger profit under the design market
conditions such as after a pivot breakout or Bollinger band pinch.

I always look at 60min and daily charts for S/R points , tag targets , stretch and larger trend. Basically a lot
of signals depend on signal strength as price amplitude. When I tested bar breakouts from 3 min to 240 min
it took a bar length of 45min to have directional follow through 50% of the time. A hourly bar is more rugged
and was given in Barron's back to the 1950s for the Dow. Indicators can bring longer time into the chart ;
a 20 period SMA and Bollinger band brings in 100 minutes. Daily and weekly charts have more signal content
and free up your days. Traditionally the S&Ps would go dead in August and the last 2 weeks of December and
I mean deader than the 1st half of FOMC day. There's just no system that is going to be worthwhile in such
periods except to anticipate it and sell some options premium , with attendant risk of being Trumped.

Lately as the ES has approached the old all time highs and rolled over sideways there have been some real
old fashioned dead zones , just waiting for the next news , earnings , tweat. It is a notable change in behavior
that could defeat a system or system entry.

Deutsch Bank (DB) just laid off 18,000 traders but closeout of operations may go back in time a couple
of months. Whatever market actions they were causing aren't there anymore unless completely taken over
by computers. This is unlikely due to a wide field problem. People automatically deal with a wide field of
inputs and computers are coming along nicely but maybe not there yet , at least as evidenced by the DB
stock price trend.

It is normal for systems to go through longish abhorrent drawdowns when markets go outside of their profit
window. In a flip of a coin 256 times , 8 heads or tails in a row will show up often , even 100% of the time.
I've heard numbers of 13 and even 19 for this coin toss experiment.

Linda Raschke has some good videos on this site and I like her few simple indicator approach.

Thanks for your post as the replies are a resource.

Addendum: For intraday, some pro traders link performance to ATR. The idea is that as ATR shrinks
and bars overlap more, a bar breakout oriented system will tend to fail and profit targets need
to be adjusted. For Tradestation this concept can be easily applied to candle body range instead of ATR.
It could be revealing to see what was changing with these ranges for 60min and daily bars when your system
started failing. A 5 ATR is much faster than a 14 or 20 RSI.

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  #87 (permalink)
 Meklon 
New York, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
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GoldLinx View Post
I have A LOT to say because I have been in literally the EXACT same situation. I had produced about $90,000 in net profits in my first 6 months of trading before quitting my job to become a full-time trader, I spent the following year losing every dollar of that money. Some of my suggestions may be repeated but I did not have the patience to read everyone else's responses and just skimmed them. If you're willing to listen to someone whose been in the same exact shoes and you actually want to come out of it as a career trader, listen:

I'm going to address the job part at the end, let's talk about your trading first.

(1) First, you need to stop your search for indicators. If you are trading 5 minute charts with a stoploss where you expect to lose less than $200 in those products, you are essentially are a very short term day trader bordering a scalper. What you are missing right now is the context of the markets, indicators cannot define context, however a trained eye can have a "pretty" good idea going into a session if this is likely to be a balanced day or a trending day. I'm not saying you will predict what happens before it happens but I am saying you need a unique plan for each and every scenario. There are zero indicators to my knowledge that covers the shifting context of markets. With all the stuff going on as far as Fed, Trump, Iran, etc etc there is no indicator that is going to cover your ass all the time when you are trading news driven products like ES, NQ, and CL.

With that being said, it is likely that whatever indicator you are currently using DOES work, but only during the correct context. So you are going to need to develop a system on defining (in real-time) what type of market we are currently in. The reason why algo traders struggle to do this is because you cannot code context into an algo, so they have to create numerous if/then scenarios for the algo to execute. If you didnt know, some of the best algos are actually trading off news releases or certain key words in trump tweets, etc. I have never met someone long-term profitable trading a yes/no indicator without adding personal discretion.

You mentioned your system averaged $300 a day over the course of 5 months, well what was the market like during those 5 months? What was the volatility? What was the relative volume to other times of the year? Who was participating in those markets? What was the average rotation size for the timeframe you look at? Where were your targets and where were your stops? Maybe that edge is temporarily gone and will return when certain market conditions return. Maybe that edge was temporary and will never be back...

(2) I reluctantly want to tell you to learn about orderflow, the reason why I am reluctant is because you are likely going to struggle to be patient enough to really learn the auction process and how reading the tape, dom, and other various orderflow tools actually work. Orderflow is a way to judge the quality of YOUR PREDEFINED SETUPS THAT HAVE EDGE, orderflow itself is not a tool for entering the market. Because it sounds like you do not yet have setups with proven edge, I really caution you to not think that you can jump in the market because you saw 1000 contracts at X price, or you have noticed an iceburg forming or something because that's a recipe for big losses. Just remember orderflow either confirms your idea or keeps you OUT of the market. It's not a setup.

(3) Third, we know nothing about your trade management. If you are trading 1 lots well this gets pretty difficult, because you either have to win/lose, you're not affording yourself the opportunity for a scale out for risk reduction. Being able to do this will greatly increase your win/scratch %. So if you cannot afford multiple contracts in these products you need to start trading the micros (MES). You are doing yourself a HUGE disservice trying to get after it with 1 lots. I would recommend immediately transitioning to trading 3 lots on the MES as opposed to 1 ES.

(4) Next you need to specialize in a product. You mentioned 4 futures that you trade, my initial guess is that you probably look at the same indicators and tools across all 4. This is extremely erroneous. It is extraordinarily rare that a system would work in CL and then untweaked also be profitable in the ES, its so extremely unlikely. Your first order of business needs to be selecting ONE product and building consistency in your approach there. Then your PROCESS can be applied to other markets as you expand. In ANY of the products you mentioned there is more than enough activity to make any kind of money that you want to make over the long run. You are not improving your expectancy by jumping across markets in fact you are making it much more difficult on yourself because your feedback loop is messed up. If you are trading a particular setup in both CL and NQ, and you lose on it 5 times in a row on NQ, you might have lost confidence to trade that setup in any market but it may actually have edge in CL. It's extraordinarily difficult to interpret your results.

(5) Speaking of interpreting your results, how are you journaling? And do you have the ability right now to determine whether a losing trade was a mistake or a typical loss of your system? You could have a losing trade for the following reasons:
-Entry Error
-Management Error
-Incorrect Stoploss Placement (perhaps too tight)
-Incorrect Target Selection (is the target some arbitrary number or have you identified a level that you expect price to get to based on the context of that particular market)
-A scheduled loser of your system

Let's say you have a system that wins 56.5% of the time, and you get 2.5R on your winners risking $200(R) per trade:

Over 100 trades your expectancy is: 56.5 x 2.5R($500) - 43.5 x 1R (200) = This system "should" make $19,550 over 100 trades

However lets pretend you are executing PERFECTLY and making no errors, there is still a probabilistic chance that your system has 4, 5, even 6 sequential losers in a row. So, do you have the psychology skills in place that you could drawdown $1000 or even $1200 dollars in just a few days and STILL execute the system perfectly and believe in it?

The answer to that is likely no, and that is probably what is resulting in you looking for new indicators. (And I am speaking from experience here)

--------

Now lets get to the job thing.

If you want to trade for a living, you need to get into prop. If you have 3 months left to live off of, you're done. Your trading account will not be able to sustain that.

Just to be frank, I have never met a person in my life who makes 50k a year trading 1 lots. Lets just imagine you are a gifted superstar trader you do a complete transformation and you pull in 4k a month in profits trading the size you do right now. Generously, that's 3k after taxes, do you live frugally enough that you can live from 3k AND still add to your trading account to grow it? Because if the answer is no, then that means even if you do survive another 6 or even 9 months you are bound to blow up the very first time you have a negative month after that. You CANNOT be paycheck to paycheck in a trading account (again, speaking from experience). Not to mention the unbelievable weight that has on your psychology, how are you going to perfectly execute your system and then remain calm when it has 6 losers in a row?

Get a part-time job at a minimum. Free-lance your skills from your old career, uber, do phone sales in your free time, start a youtube channel, just get something or several somethings rolling on the side because you need to cover your expenses outside of trading. You can either have 2 jobs, or stick with 1 job your losing money on and then be forced to go to a job you don't like. Either way is difficult, but you know which choice you like better.

Brush up that old resume and start talking to prop firms, and if you don't currently have the credentials to get hired, you know what they're going to want to see? A consistent and methodical trader who is tracking his progress and getting better with each trading session. Buy (literally) yourself some time with a part time job while you try to get your foot in the door at a firm over the next year and hopeful you progress enough as a trader that you become highly marketable.

---------

To wrap this up I am going to summarize my list of executable actions:


1. Move to the micros
2. Select which 1 micro product you will specialize in
3. Backtest a strategy and find an edge (this is easier than you think, and there's many places you can research how to find your own edge, I think there's even a webinar on this website called "vetting your own edge" or something like that)
4. Implement a new rule where you are only allowed ONE change to your charts per 2 week period (even a damn color change, ONE change per 2 weeks)
5. Test your strategy in REAL-TIME, but WITHOUT trading it. WATCH your strategy play out or not play out over the course of 2 weeks. Watch every day, DO NOT take the trade. Watching it will help you with timing, what to look for when its working and not working, and getting used to seeing it fail. While you are in the trade your personal emotions run to high to objectively look at all of these variables because you cant help but want a win. So look at it where you do not care if it wins or not.
6. SIM trade that strategy for 2 weeks
7. Go back to live trading (there is only so much SIM can do, your first order of business is finding an edge, that is what SIM is for, however when you go to live you will find out if YOU can execute that edge or not)
8. Journal the details of each and every trade, tracked my setup, day type, context, volume, and anything else you think could be useful. Invest in a software like tradervue or journalytix, I think the basic version of tradervue is free.
9. Start analyzing whether you have made a mistake or this is a standard loss expected by your system
10. Look at every mistake as an opportunity to learn, so that when you mess up (because all of us at every stage still make mistakes) you will be able to use a mistake today an experience that makes you money in the future.
11. Also create some sort of routine for analyzing the news, I'm not saying to trade the news, but I am saying if the fed is cutting rates you sure as shit don't want to be short for a swing trade. The other day ES popped nearly 10pts just from news that the US was sending a negotiation team to China. If your indicator was telling you to fade that move, that would be a trade you would want to skip.
12. Create a "learning" syllabus, PLAN your education, the times of searching "CL setups" in YouTube is over. Remember step 4, where you cant change your charts? You need to select a tool that you are ALREADY using to get MORE skilled at each week. So if I have volume profile on my chart, I am going to plan out a week of learning where I will listen to other people talk about their use cases, I will plan out times where I just sit there and look at volume profile on my charts over the last month, time where I look at previous trades I made and go back and see if there was information volume profile gave that I did not see at the time. If your "studying" consists of finding "new" information, that is not study, study time is for SKILL improvement. Most traders have everything they need to be profitable already on their charts.
13. Create a technical goal and a discipline goal for each week (I do this every week without fail), Technical Goal could be: "I want to get better at recognizing weakness in pullbacks". Discipline Goal could be "I want to stop moving my stoploss after I have initially placed it in my trade". And you give yourself a score on how well you executed these goals every single day this week.
12. Demonstrate consistency for 3 months and start applying to firms, if you do not get hired at that point 6 months or 9 months of consistency looks even better. Firms want you to manage how much of their capital you risk. They will help you in getting more profitable, but they need to be able to trust that you are not going to blow up

--------

I know this is very long and will probably require multiple reads, but I have been there my friend and it was not a fun time in my life, in fact it wasn't even that long ago so I recall those feelings vividly. To my benefit, my fiance actually produced enough income to pay our bills. However it still messed with my psychology deeply as I felt emasculated and downright embarrassed being reliant on my lady to produce an income for us both. I forced many trades unnecessarily because I was trading to make money now not trading for the best performance over the course of 1000 trades. The latter is where you have to be at. Best of luck.

This is THE BEST post I have read in a while...KUDOS to you Sir and I can tell you are speaking from the experience because I can sign under EVERY word in what you have said. GREAT POST, truly a mentor type help many people need!!!

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 GaleWilliams 
Oklahoma City Oklahoma
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation TC2000 Stockfinder
Trading: RUX
 
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Find a mentor. A few have been suggested.

Not sure if he is helping others anymore, but you can try David Weis. He has a web site. https://www.WeisOnWyckoff.com

He is easy to write, and he seems to enjoy helping others. You might ask him how long he has made a living by trading the market, I believe he has been successful for a very long time.

If your lucky you got some direct help already. It's smart that you asked and it may be very smart that you did.

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  #89 (permalink)
 rlstreet 
Arnhem, The Netherlands
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Zorro
Broker: RCG/Continuum, IB, Oanda
Trading: Futures: FDAX, GC, ES, CL also: FX, CFD, ETF
 
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Meklon View Post
This is the MOST ill informed post I have read in past 20 years. No, seriously….while you find no better way of laying out your frustration and failure, you also misinforming the community and discouraging other people from analyzing they mistakes and becoming successful. "...I quit a while back, when I was informed that only 5%-10% of day traders actually make ANY money...." - You "were informed"??? Really??? Who was that Good Samaritan who offered to you this priceless piece of information? Look...any person who have ever made it in this business of trading (including myself) will tell you that trading is SIMPLE but NOT EASY. I would be the first person to admit that this is a VERY difficult field to conquer and it takes YEARS of practice, self-analyses, thousands of hours of practice and restructuring of yourself psychologically before you even start to see glimpse of the hope. But to say that this game is rigged, that this is Vegas, that this is hoax is not only preposterous but also ill advised.

I understand, you did not make it...I also understand that you lost money. Perhaps you are correct and your best place is in the corporate world or whatever the business you were making your 170K a year....but at least be fair and look at what YOU as a trader did wrong and WHY you have failed instead of telling people they should sue their broker for their own mistakes.

Market does not care about YOU, ME oar ANYONE else. The only function of the market is to advertise price in order to attract buyers and sellers, conduct an auction to facilitate the trade and offer the liquidity. It's what YOU as a trader do with this information and how YOU execute your trading plan that is determining whether you will become successful in trading or not.

I think you ought to take your own advise - lick your wounds and get back to happily making that 170K a year while not posting nonsense on this board, discouraging people from learning and becoming successfull.

True, absolutly agree it is possible to make money trading as a retailer, but there is some truth to the remarks of @Scottiep.

As a result of ESMA ruling the EU brokers are forced to publish the % of their losing retail accounts. Most of them publish numbers around 75-80%, very little below 70%. If you take into account that that there maybe 10-15% dormant accounts you can conclude that only 10% of retailers are winners in the game of trading.

So yes, these numbers are more about FX/CFD brokers on less regulated/transparant exchanges. But they give us a bit of insight. For more transparent and better regulated markets like the US futures market these numbers will undoubtly be less worse, but not that far off imo.

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  #90 (permalink)
 Meklon 
New York, USA
 
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rlstreet View Post
True, absolutly agree it is possible to make money trading as a retailer, but there is some truth to the remarks of @Scottiep.

As a result of ESMA ruling the EU brokers are forced to publish the % of their losing retail accounts. Most of them publish numbers around 75-80%, very little below 70%. If you take into account that that there maybe 10-15% dormant accounts you can conclude that only 10% of retailers are winners in the game of trading.

So yes, these numbers are more about FX/CFD brokers on less regulated/transparant exchanges. But they give us a bit of insight. For more transparent and better regulated markets like the US futures market these numbers will undoubtly be less worse, but not that far off imo.

I never disputed the fact that majority of beginners in trading loose their entire capital. This is a know fact. Been known for years. After all, the 90/90/90 rule has been in effect for the past 20 years - 90% of retail traders loose 90% of their initial capital within first 90 days. It's a FACT. However, this is NOT the point I was trying to make or dispute. My point was that it is unfair and ill advised to blame brokers for the mistakes beginners traders make. When people jump into trading without doing proper research and educating themselves on how to set the goals and accomplish them it leads to exactly that - loss of the money. The access to the trading platform and ability to click the mouse in no way shape or form guaranties that the person will make money. It will only guarantee that the broker gets more business as well as commissions and that exchanges will get more fees. Can the brokers (especially Introductory Brokers) be regulated better and be more transparent? Absolutely. But when (and IF) this happens it will still not guarantee the success to beginner traders and make them less likely to blow up their account.

I speak from experience. It took me 15 years to achieve the consistency and profitability. I blew up 5 accounts along the way. But I never gave up and knew that I will get to my goal if I continue to analyze my mistakes and improve my skill set and discipline in trading. ANY successful person in trading business have blown number of his personal and his customers accounts, it's unavoidable. It's part of the process. But every successful trader has also never gave up and made adjustments to his path in trading to reach his goal. Not easy, but brokers has very little to do with each personal success or failure.

Sorry for highjacking the thread as this is not really the main topic of conversation here, but I felt its important to put things in perspective.

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  #91 (permalink)
HMUZ
Raleigh NC/USA
 
 
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There are sooo many good responses to this thread. To boot, I would not call myself a success either. However, I can sympathize.
I will say that in futures keeping it small was, in the past hard to do. yeah, there's the miro/minis...whichever, the new cheaper big 4. That's a good start if you're a heavy index trader.
I guess my whole point here is to look for small margins. AD/ HG!/ TY...things like that give also give you more opportunities.

Overall, find the smaller margins and go up on the time frame. Do not play tiddlewinks. Use the higher TFs ...ie...120/240/360 (Nice Trend Breaks) and the 720 is sneaky. Always keep open/mark off the MWD. Know where you are.

That and change your handle from Trigger Happy to some kinda turtle.
Patience to get in / Patience to get out.

Context is everything.

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Energu Trader
New York, NY - Tel Aviv, Israel
 
 
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Most say if you want to make it as a trader, treat it as a full time job.
BUT,
Every other job you learn, practice perform and get paid.
Even if become self employee, contractor or advisor, you get paid for what you do.
Not in trading.
You learn, practice, perform and many times lost money.
Why?
Because trading is NOT a job. It is art. Art of combine knowledge, psychology, self control, pattern recognition, understanding of economics, world events and such.
Good luck.

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TradeThatJazz
sonora california
 
 
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GaleWilliams View Post
Find a mentor. A few have been suggested.

Not sure if he is helping others anymore, but you can try David Weis. He has a web site. https://www.WeisOnWyckoff.com

He is easy to write, and he seems to enjoy helping others. You might ask him how long he has made a living by trading the market, I believe he has been successful for a very long time.

If your lucky you got some direct help already. It's smart that you asked and it may be very smart that you did.

Gale is right - David Weis is a good source for Wyckoff information.

Two other "By-The-Wyckoff-Method" websites are...

tradingpsychologyedge.com, hosted by Gary Dayton, and
Tradeguider.com. hosted by Gavin Holmes.

Gavin Holmes has a large visibility on YouTube. By watching his videos with 'educational' titles, you can begin to learn about the Wyckoff Method.

Both Gary Dayton and David Weis have visibility on YouTube - Tradeguider seems to have the most videos out there.

Weis has a special piece of software known as Weis Waves. It only works on certain, specific trading platforms, but may help if one needs to become that specific in their Wyckoff journey.

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  #94 (permalink)
Howard Roark
Oslo Norway
 
 
Posts: 144 since Aug 2018
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@barabas,

It's been a week or so since you created this thread and you've certainly received a lot of advice from a wide variety of people.

Are you reaching any conclusions with regards to how to proceed and what's the right course of action for you from here?

Forgot to say good luck in my last post, so here goes: Good luck!

Howard

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 Fxfutures1976 
London
 
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Flyer873 View Post
barabas,
I have spent the last 12 years trying every method from stocks, options and futures. None have ever really worked for me. Stocks you have too worry about if the CEO is going to get arrested for child pornography. Options you have to follow 2 different prices the underlying stock and then the price of the option. Futures are news driven; you have to worry what the dollar, ECB or the fed is going to do next. Each product has its drawbacks. I, myself, am at the same point you are. Frustrated!
I've come to realize that there are some people that want to be a BULLFIGHTER but once they enter the ring and see the size of the bull and how big those horns really are, they come to realize that all they really wanted to do was dress up in a too-too, wear a funny hat and carry a cape.


Hahahahahaha! Brilliant! Best reply yet.

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  #96 (permalink)
 barabas 
Chicago IL USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradestation
Broker: Tradestation
Trading: ES,NQ, CL
 
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Howard Roark View Post
@barabas,

It's been a week or so since you created this thread and you've certainly received a lot of advice from a wide variety of people.

Are you reaching any conclusions with regards to how to proceed and what's the right course of action for you from here?

Forgot to say good luck in my last post, so here goes: Good luck!

Howard

I took the last week off with no trading. This week I started a Sim account and started trading off that but instead of my usually 5 min chart, I moved over to range and tick chart. Monday I broke even, Tuesday was an emergency for me, and so far today I'm up about $200.

I will keep you all posted weekly for the time being and If I create a journal I will post the link here too.

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Howard Roark
Oslo Norway
 
 
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barabas View Post
I took the last week off with no trading. This week I started a Sim account and started trading off that but instead of my usually 5 min chart, I moved over to range and tick chart. Monday I broke even, Tuesday was an emergency for me, and so far today I'm up about $200.

I will keep you all posted weekly for the time being and If I create a journal I will post the link here too.

Why did you change charts?

Like I said already - you seem to be experimenting and finding your way. I think all that should be out of the way before you trade with live money. But seems like you're trading in simulator now, so all good I guess.

Also - learning by trading/following a live market can be very inefficient use of your time. In a full 6-8 hour day, you can cover a LOT of ground backtesting/checking stuff manually. Of course, eventually, you'll need to follow the market live, but in developing your methodology, I think time away from the market can be just as fruitful.

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dbouzas
Houston, TX
 
 
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barabas View Post
I took the last week off with no trading. This week I started a Sim account and started trading off that but instead of my usually 5 min chart, I moved over to range and tick chart. Monday I broke even, Tuesday was an emergency for me, and so far today I'm up about $200.

I will keep you all posted weekly for the time being and If I create a journal I will post the link here too.

That a boy. Keep it consistent. Capital preservation = Capital gain. The only things you can control is size and price. So, your risk is something that you can control. If you learn to keep your losses small, you will eventually make money.

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  #99 (permalink)
 barabas 
Chicago IL USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: Tradestation
Trading: ES,NQ, CL
 
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dbouzas View Post
That a boy. Keep it consistent. Capital preservation = Capital gain. The only things you can control is size and price. So, your risk is something that you can control. If you learn to keep your losses small, you will eventually make money.

This was the profit from last week on a SIM account. The reason I changed to Range and Tick bars is because it made things more easy for me to read.

I think the problem with me was as the markets changed hitting highs for SP and oil reaching 60s. My trading was so-called broken. I never traded with a journal since I had it all with Trade Station, been crashing recently. Making the change to tick and range bar made it a lot easier to read price action. With is how it all started for me. So I adjusted my trading rules by making the loss smaller and drawing on the chart more. MAY have been a game-changer for me.


I'm not saying I made it.

I am saying this MAY have solved my issues. Before I was stuck on 5 min as my trading rules were on 5 mins.

I will keep you all posted, this is just a SIM account so I will still be messing with my rules and see what I get.



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