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"It's a high probability trade"
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Created: by shodson Attachments:0

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"It's a high probability trade"

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
OC, California, USA
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
shodson's Avatar
Posts: 1,882 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 489 given, 3,339 received

"It's a high probability trade"

I just want to rant:

I'm tired of reading in books/magazines/websites talk about "high probability setups" or "high probability trades" without ever publishing what the probabilities are. If you don't have numbers to support how high the probabilities are then don't say it's a high probability setup. And if you read that something is of a high probability demand to know what the probabilities are. They are hiding behind the excitement of potentially having a statistical advantage without performing or publishing any statistical analysis.

OK I'm done.

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
Near the BEuTiFULL Horse Shoe
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: MBTrading Dukascopy ZenFire
Favorite Futures: $EURUSD when it is trending
Trader.Jon's Avatar
Posts: 500 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 401 given, 178 received

Very well said ... gotta love ambiguity

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  #4 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, YM
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
Posts: 3,779 since Oct 2009
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I think the expression "High Probability" is a loose term used to describe a potential High Reward trade setup. The failure rate may be High even worse than 50%, say 33% but if the reward is 5 times the risk then for many it is considered as a high probability trade. The language used is bit streched but i think this is used in this context in the majority of the time, ie, a High Reward Setup that produces a positive expectation over the long term.

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  #5 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
beverly hills, ca
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TransAct, E-Futures International, Ninja
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Posts: 14 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 15 given, 7 received

Good point. 'high probability trade' is one of the classic market cliches. Everybody uses it without ever substantiating. Another cliche I hate to see is 'take the guesswork out...'

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  #6 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, YM
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
Posts: 3,779 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,163 given, 4,677 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

The higher probability trades in a downtrend are in overbought zones as any short is vulnerable in oversold zones. Same is true in an uptrend, the higher probability trades in an uptrend are in oversold zones as any long is vulnerable in overbought zones.

Now the right question to answer is how do we identify these overbought/oversold zones ?

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  #7 (permalink)
Just starting out...
North Carolina
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multicharts
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
handelaar's Avatar
Posts: 5 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 3 given, 5 received

So many trading terms are subjective and the standard clichés are everywhere, from “overbought/sold” to “trend” to “retrace,” etc. I know it’s oftentimes difficult to quantify what exactly these mean, so in many ways trading really is an art more than a science, even though we are dealing with numbers and graphs

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