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"It's a high probability trade"
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"It's a high probability trade"

  #1 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,860 since Jun 2009
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"It's a high probability trade"

I just want to rant:

<rant>
I'm tired of reading in books/magazines/websites talk about "high probability setups" or "high probability trades" without ever publishing what the probabilities are. If you don't have numbers to support how high the probabilities are then don't say it's a high probability setup. And if you read that something is of a high probability demand to know what the probabilities are. They are hiding behind the excitement of potentially having a statistical advantage without performing or publishing any statistical analysis.
</rant>

OK I'm done.

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
Near the BEuTiFULL Horse Shoe
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
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Very well said ... gotta love ambiguity

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  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
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I think the expression "High Probability" is a loose term used to describe a potential High Reward trade setup. The failure rate may be High even worse than 50%, say 33% but if the reward is 5 times the risk then for many it is considered as a high probability trade. The language used is bit streched but i think this is used in this context in the majority of the time, ie, a High Reward Setup that produces a positive expectation over the long term.

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  #5 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
beverly hills, ca
 
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Posts: 14 since Apr 2010
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Good point. 'high probability trade' is one of the classic market cliches. Everybody uses it without ever substantiating. Another cliche I hate to see is 'take the guesswork out...'

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  #6 (permalink)
Elite Member
Quebec
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,698 since Oct 2009
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The higher probability trades in a downtrend are in overbought zones as any short is vulnerable in oversold zones. Same is true in an uptrend, the higher probability trades in an uptrend are in oversold zones as any long is vulnerable in overbought zones.

Now the right question to answer is how do we identify these overbought/oversold zones ?

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  #7 (permalink)
Just starting out...
North Carolina
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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handelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 5 since Sep 2010
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So many trading terms are subjective and the standard clichés are everywhere, from “overbought/sold” to “trend” to “retrace,” etc. I know it’s oftentimes difficult to quantify what exactly these mean, so in many ways trading really is an art more than a science, even though we are dealing with numbers and graphs



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