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Are most small traders just losing ?


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View Poll Results: How successful have you been in your trading
Total Disaster 8 16.00%
Total Disaster
8 16.00%
Husband/Wife's gotta bail me out occasionally 0 0%
Husband/Wife's gotta bail me out occasionally
0 0%
Wasting time - losing on even days, winning on odd 13 26.00%
Wasting time - losing on even days, winning on odd
13 26.00%
Getting there 22 44.00%
Getting there
22 44.00%
I'm Killing it 7 14.00%
I'm Killing it
7 14.00%
Voters: 50. You may not vote on this poll

 
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Are most small traders just losing ?

  #1 (permalink)
babyninja
San Francisco, CA
 
Posts: 8 since May 2019
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 6

Hola to all from sunny CA.

I'm a newbie with very little trading experience. I did some reading and tried my hand for a short time 8-9 yrs ago with very basic charting knowledge and was successful, maybe accidentally or just beginners luck. Maybe, fortunately for me, I knew so little, if I knew more, I'd screw myself up. I stopped because I needed cash for other things and could never pile up enough to do this more seriously.

I've got a bit of cash available now and wanted to get into it more earnestly. I am reading more now, taking online courses (cheap ones) and trying to put some simple plan or strategy in place for swing trading to give me about 10% returns every 2 mths.

However reading the accounts of ppl on forums, it almost seems to me small traders are hurting for the most part than making steady money and just 'chasing' the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

I'd like to do a poll if you'll humor me - On a scale of 1-5, 1 being total disaster, 5 being most successful, how successful do you think you've been in your recent trading after going through your initial phase of learning/losing.

TIA

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  #3 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
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Not sure if the results to this so far are not representative of the population in general, or whether people have convinced themselves of something that isn't true, but I would have expected the opposite of what this poll says.

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  #4 (permalink)
 
xplorer's Avatar
 xplorer 
London UK
Site Moderator
 
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SMCJB View Post
Not sure if the results to this so far are not representative of the population in general, or whether people have convinced themselves of something that isn't true, but I would have expected the opposite of what this poll says.

Only 11 votes. Talk about small sample size! LOL

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  #5 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
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Probably need a 6th option :- I only sim trade

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  #6 (permalink)
babyninja
San Francisco, CA
 
Posts: 8 since May 2019
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SMCJB View Post
Not sure if the results to this so far are not representative of the population in general, or whether people have convinced themselves of something that isn't true, but I would have expected the opposite of what this poll says.

I read that everywhere. Why is that ?

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  #7 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192

Which part?

"results to this so far are not representative of the population in general"
It is possible that since there are a large number of successful traders here at futures.io that they have dis-proportionality replied to this poll and the results are not representative of the general trading population.

"whether people have convinced themselves of something that isn't true"
Why does everybody think they are an above average driver? Do they think too highly of themselves or do they not really understand what the word average means. (Or both!).
In reality people generally have unrealistic and over hopeful expectations. Nobody thinks they can be a doctor, or an architect, reading a couple of books, so why do people think they can be traders.

"I would have expected the opposite of what this poll says"
Because statistics show that most (reportedly as high as 90%) traders (especially small and new ones) lose!

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  #8 (permalink)
babyninja
San Francisco, CA
 
Posts: 8 since May 2019
Thanks Given: 10
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SMCJB View Post

"I would have expected the opposite of what this poll says"
Because statistics show that most (reportedly as high as 90%) traders (especially small and new ones) lose!

Yes, why is that ? Especially since these people are supposed to be "smart money" who have put in time to either understand the mechanics behind price movements or a system to predict how they will move.

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  #9 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192

I believe the 90% of accounts lose money industry folklore dates back to an old Refco study. A simple google search reveals articles such as NASAA report says 70 percent of traders will lose nearly all their money (note the word ALL in there, not just lose!) and here at nexusfi.com we have a discussion that includes some interesting data presented by @artemiso on his first hand experience as a market maker in the thread Can Day Trading be profitable, consistently, for retail traders. (Spoiler :- About 20% of small accounts made money)

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  #10 (permalink)
babyninja
San Francisco, CA
 
Posts: 8 since May 2019
Thanks Given: 10
Thanks Received: 6


I want to swing trade making 10% returns every 2 months. I'm up for whatever meaningful learning effort/research is needed but cant go insane learning every pattern/indicator combo out there. Personally, I have commitment and discipline. I am ok with risking all of my initial investment (meaning it won't kill me) but will have to stop completely if I lose that.

Are those returns doable ?

Great piece of work by by @artemiso BTW. Thanks for posting it.

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Last Updated on June 21, 2019


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