Are trading/investing/management books as effective today as they were back in time ? - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Are trading/investing/management books as effective today as they were back in time ?
Updated: Views / Replies:177 / 6
Created: by mayurb4 Attachments:2

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 100,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Are trading/investing/management books as effective today as they were back in time ?

  #1 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Pune, India
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: Futures, Options, Forex, Equity
 
Posts: 1 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 2 given, 0 received

Are trading/investing/management books as effective today as they were back in time ?

Hi,
first of all Congratulations to @Big Mike and the team on 10th anniversary of this forum. second, I'm new, so I don't know what category this question should go in hence I'm just putting it in "Traders' hideout"

Okay, So I was reading "Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager and at some point in the book, I read something that implied that the trend following doesn't yield as much results in today's market as it did back in time(I think it was Michael Marcus' interview). I'm not sure when those interviews were conducted and I'm also not sure what time Michael Marcus was speaking about. But, It brings me to a question I don't seem to figure out on my own since I'm just a beginner. What do you think of the efficiency of the general material presented in books about trading fare in today's market compared to it's efficiency in the market back in time. For example, do you think that trend following is as effective a strategy/system as it used to be ?

When I say, "back in time" I don't mean some fixed point in time, more precisely I meant prior to 10-15 years or so. Just to be clear, I'm referring to books those were preferably written back in time. Since there are very experienced traders/investors participating in this forum, I thought I might ask it here.

Thanks in advance.
-Mayur


Last edited by mayurb4; May 12th, 2019 at 10:46 PM. Reason: Made question more concise, and added more description to it.
Reply With Quote
 
  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
  #3 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
south africa
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: KDE Neon, TWS, Python, R
Favorite Futures: Common stock, ETFs, YM, options
 
Posts: 170 since Dec 2018
Thanks: 33 given, 211 received


Keep in mind the Market Wizard books are from the early 90s. When they say something use to trend they mean in the early 80s on back.
I have heard Jim Simons say something along the same lines that commodities use to trend more but he is referring to the early 80s too.

I wouldn't doubt things were different before people were widely using computers and there was no electronic trading.

People tend to always say trading use to be easier though. There is just so much resources though today for a new trader but there is also so much garbage to sift through too.

I think it is also interesting to look up what the Market Wizards are doing now. Tudor Jones is a master pit trader in the book but Tudor Investments today has a very large venture capital part of their business. He evolved with the times.

Steve Cohen is basically a fraud who was good at getting inside information and is no longer able to take outside money.


Last edited by centaurer; May 13th, 2019 at 07:46 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to centaurer for this post:
 
  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
Santa Rosa CA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: Emini ES, Micro ES
 
hen322's Avatar
 
Posts: 11 since Apr 2019
Thanks: 16 given, 19 received


mayurb4 View Post
Hi,
first of all Congratulations to @Big Mike and the team on 10th anniversary of this forum. second, I'm new, so I don't know what category this question should go in hence I'm just putting it in "Traders' hideout"

Okay, So I was reading "Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager and at some point in the book, I read something that implied that the trend following doesn't yield as much results in today's market as it did back in time(I think it was Michael Marcus' interview). I'm not sure when those interviews were conducted and I'm also not sure what time Michael Marcus was speaking about. But, It brings me to a question I don't seem to figure out on my own since I'm just a beginner. What do you think of the efficiency of the general material presented in books about trading fare in today's market compared to it's efficiency in the market back in time. For example, do you think that trend following is as effective a strategy/system as it used to be ?

When I say, "back in time" I don't mean some fixed point in time, more precisely I meant prior to 10-15 years or so. Just to be clear, I'm referring to books those were preferably written back in time. Since there are very experienced traders/investors participating in this forum, I thought I might ask it here.

Thanks in advance.
-Mayur

I would suggest reading "One Good Trade" by Mike Bellafiore. At the end of the book, he summarizes how he changed his methods during different years. I think this is what it means when the market changes and he emphasized that this is the trader's life, to find what works at the present. I think that those books were written based on the strategy that worked in the market acting at that time.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to hen322 for this post:
 
  #5 (permalink)
Normal Wizard
Sydney, NSW, Australia
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader with Jigsaw DOM
Favorite Futures: CL, 6E, ES, Piano
 
TickedOff's Avatar
 
Posts: 248 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 211 given, 229 received


centaurer View Post
Keep in mind the Market Wizard books are from the early 90s. When they say something use to trend they mean in the early 80s on back.
I have heard Jim Simons say something along the same lines that commodities use to trend more but he is referring to the early 80s too.

I wouldn't doubt things were different before people were widely using computers and there was no electronic trading.

People tend to always say trading use to be easier though. There is just so much resources though today for a new trader but there is also so much garbage to sift through too.

I think it is also interesting to look up what the Market Wizards are doing now. Tudor Jones is a master pit trader in the book but Tudor Investments today has a very large venture capital part of their business. He evolved with the times.

Steve Cohen is basically a fraud who was good at getting inside information and is no longer able to take outside money.

Could you recommend some good resources?

Understanding yourself is just as important as understanding markets.
Reply With Quote
 
  #6 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
south africa
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: KDE Neon, TWS, Python, R
Favorite Futures: Common stock, ETFs, YM, options
 
Posts: 170 since Dec 2018
Thanks: 33 given, 211 received


TickedOff View Post
Could you recommend some good resources?

You could almost make a markets degree with how much stuff there is.

Aswath Damodaran's youtube channel and classes will give you the tools to value any financial asset.
I took Robert Shiller's finance class online that was fantastic.

Then the whole field of data science..The website fast.ai will teach you machine learning for free.
Udemy has classes on whatever you want for 10 dollars.

Book wise I think Marcos Lopez de Prado's book will be seen in time as the greatest trading book ever.

IMO you just have to stay clear of "get rich reading the tape at home with no effort" type material.

Reply With Quote
 
  #7 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sarasota FL
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES, YM
 
Posts: 4,703 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 35,201 given, 15,602 received


mayurb4 View Post

Okay, So I was reading "Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager and at some point in the book, I read something that implied that the trend following doesn't yield as much results in today's market as it did back in time(I think it was Michael Marcus' interview). I'm not sure when those interviews were conducted and I'm also not sure what time Michael Marcus was speaking about. But, It brings me to a question I don't seem to figure out on my own since I'm just a beginner. What do you think of the efficiency of the general material presented in books about trading fare in today's market compared to it's efficiency in the market back in time. For example, do you think that trend following is as effective a strategy/system as it used to be ?

Well, reading a lot of different things is generally a good idea, mainly just to get a little context and to understand some of the things that people talk about, but generally books can be a little dangerous. Why? Aside from the obvious (the author may be selling something, or may not know what he's talking about, or the advice may be too old, or, in the case of interview books, you really don't know much about the traders and how they are doing now), there's the fact that taking other people's advice and opinions as if they were factual can be very harmful, even if they know what they are talking about -- if for no other reason than that good advice is not necessarily always going to be good or stay good. Times do change. (Plus, you do need to do your own thinking. )

For instance, as to the "trend following" question, here is a monthly chart of the S&P 500 futures (ES futures) for more than 20 years (from 9/11/1997, as far back as my data goes.)

(Note: since the futures expire, this is a "continuous contract, backadjusted," which simply means it was pasted together from many actual contract dates and the value scale was adjusted to make them fit together.... It's a reasonable proxy for the market and was easy for me to pull up):

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Pretty trending, right? Except when it wasn't. Like every other idea, trend following works when it does, and doesn't when it doesn't, but that's not a good thing to put in a book, even if true. It is also true that some of these times trend following would have been profitable, and at other times you would have given it back. (Visually it is possible to fool yourself that the choppy, horizontal range periods are not that important. Suppose you were using something like a moving average to tell you when to trade.... You can see how often you would have given back as price moved back and forth across your MA, whipsawing you each time.) Still, there was some good money to be made some of the times.... but remember this is a monthly chart. Would you have held during the last year and a half while it bounced up and down? And are you confident about what is next? When would you change your mind, and why? Not a simple question.)

I will tell you flatly that if you looked at another chart of any time period you wanted to, you would see the same thing.

So here's yesterday's 1-minute chart of ES, which I just picked randomly:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



It's trendy too, except when it isn't.

There is a moral here: yes, read what others have to say, but not too much, and don't take it as necessarily gospel, and do look for yourself.

You can find out what some real traders are doing by reading some of the journals here on FIO -- but, of course, (a) they are pretty much all going to be doing different things, and (b) most will be aspiring traders trying to work out their own way to do it, not usually pros who are profitable consistently -- although some are. Anyway, you will at least get some different perspectives. Just don't jump into every idea or method you see. Try stuff out.

The thing is, you'll really have to do it yourself, even if others can be of help. This applies to any books, good or bad, and to most of what's on the internet, and certainly to what anybody tells you. Myself included.



Bob.

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > Are trading/investing/management books as effective today as they were back in time ?




Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

futures io is celebrating 10-years w/ over $18,000 in prizes!

Right now
 

60 Minutes to Better Decisions & Better Trades w/Agustin Lebron

Elite only
 

Live Day Trading the E-MICROS w/Ilan @ Cannon (special time: 12PM ET)

May 30
     


Tags
ai, average, backadjusted, bellafiore, commodities, continuous contract, data, dow, el, es, es futures, est, futures, information, machine learning, mike bellafiore, moving average, people, profitable, science, strategy, trading, trend, trend following, type

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:59 PM. (this page content is cached, log in for real-time version)

Copyright © 2019 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432 WhatsApp Business, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2019-05-24 in 0.21 seconds with 25 queries on phoenix