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Real Leading Indicators.
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Real Leading Indicators.

  #1 (permalink)
Taipei Taiwan
Posts: 3 since Feb 2019
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Real Leading Indicators.

Good day, traders at Futures.IO, hope you all doing great.

Do you have any form of leading indicators in mind? A true leading indicator.
I'm currently trading base on transaction volume delta. This indicator calculates the difference between buying and selling, so I can see a rather true intention of the market. A lot of time more precise than the price chart, in my opinion.

Some of the platform and data feed vendor allows the user to chart a long-term timeframe chart, traders can see the trend of the transaction really clearly.
This image attached is a chart of ESH9, I consider cumulative volume delta a semi-leading indicator because of that. You can clearly see the bull strength paused way before the price of the major market index crashed. CVD line turns days, even weeks before S&P drop its price.
This really helps me make a more informed decision.

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Stuttgart, Germany
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MessageOfTheTape's Avatar
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Not trying to be sarcastic or anything, but the only "true, leading" indicator I can think of would be insider information.

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  #4 (permalink)
Hamburg, Germany
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Source is TradingView Wiki:

A Leading Indicator is an indicator designed to precede future price movements. They can get you into a profitable trade earlier than Lagging Indicators, however they are less reliable and can often lead to false signals.

Two examples of popular Leading Indicators are the RSI and Stochastic oscillators.

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  #5 (permalink)
Legendary the coin hunter
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.. often lead to false signals.

This is all you need to know.

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  #6 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Tallinn, Estonia
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lemons's Avatar
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and leading by how much
5 bars, 10 bars ??

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  #7 (permalink)
Sarasota FL
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An indicator is, at most, going to tell you what is happening now, or actually, what just happened.

They may help you to understand what has been going on in your market, and so can help you to formulate your hypothesis (guess ) about what will happen next. In that sense, they can be helpful -- probably pretty much to the same degree as any other -- in the hands of someone who folds it into his understanding of the price movement now. But other than helping in understanding the current context, probably not.

I do not think it is possible for an indicator, or anything else, to be "leading" in the sense we would all like: to just flat-out tell you what will happen next.

Also, anyone who had such a thing would certainly just keep it to themselves, for that fairly brief time it took them to become a billionaire.

Which leads to the thought that there is no true "leading" indicator. If that's what a person is looking for, they should be prepared for many disappointments.

So yeah,

cory View Post
.. often lead to false signals.

This is all you need to know.


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  #8 (permalink)
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True leading indicator is AAPL

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  #9 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Portland, OR
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Massive l's Avatar
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emotion in the pit

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  #10 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
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aquarian1's Avatar
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I think Bob summed it up nicely.

Anyone who found one would keep it to themselves.

However there are patterns in the market price movements.
You may find one or more indicators which together with other factors could indicate the likely movement under that set of conditions.

I think if you are serious then you have to first break the market into different condition sets and then look for the collection of indicators (and or measurements) that are predictive for that condition set. Then you will have to test that set over a period of time to determine when your indicator(s) are predictive and when they are not and also for what period of time or length of movement.

As an example, "Under condition set A indicator 1 and 2 will predict a fall of 5 pts or more 80% of the time provided condition B or C are not present."

If it sounds like a lot of work with no guarantee of payoff - welcome to futures trading! :-)

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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