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Counter Trend Methods Don't Work?
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Counter Trend Methods Don't Work?

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
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gfullmer's Avatar
 
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Counter Trend Methods Don't Work?

Who here agrees with one of the Turtles, Russell Sands, when he says "we have NEVER found a counter trend method that works, and we have tried a lot of things"?

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  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

https://www.trendfollowing.com/performance/


Last edited by gfullmer; January 31st, 2019 at 08:45 AM. Reason: Added a link
 
  #3 (permalink)
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Can't say I would agree. There are plenty of "counter-trend" strategies such as reversion to a higher time frame mean, double bottoms, exhaustion rejections ,etc. And fundmamentalists and orderflow people have their own ideas too.

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  #4 (permalink)
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I primarily trade counter trend/mean reversion on ES and NQ. I could also apply my methodology to YM, RTY. Such a broad statement does not account for various markets and trading time frames. I have not been able to apply my methodology to commodities or currencies. This is primarily down to a lack of information into those markets but I also think those markets trend much more on an intraday basis where the indicies are naturally mean reverting.

So I do not agree with the statement.

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  #5 (permalink)
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Fid

elity Contrafund. Heresy !!

I'm sure, lol, but it's up 9% over my sp 500 down 4% over the past few months. I have some $ parked in those 2 mutual funds. But, Contra is a no-brainer, it's been that way since i began studying investing in school in the early 90's.

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  #6 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Well...

What's counter trend? Define "works"

That said, I usually take 15 -20 thousand a month trading ES counter trend as a "hedge" against my long basket of stocks.

That certainly works for me, but I am not sure what the original comment means. Generally most of the money made over time in directional speculation is made in the direction of the prevailing trend. Some notable exceptions, of course.

Dan

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  #7 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I may have...

an "original" article where this statement was made. The "Turtle" story is well documented and generally accepted. So I think context cuts a broad path. The pool guy and the landscape guy and the painter ALL believe completely that the house looks spectacular because of their work. The important question is does the house look spectacular?

Dan




gfullmer View Post
Who here agrees with one of the Turtles, Russell Sands, when he says "we have NEVER found a counter trend method that works, and we have tried a lot of things"?


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  #8 (permalink)
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If it wasn't for the counter trend then "traders" would be called "investors".

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  #9 (permalink)
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Counter trend trading is possible but by its very nature is more difficult than trading with trend The main point id like to make is Russell Sands is an old fool dinosaur who is well past his use by date and is not to be listened to in any shape or form , I have had dealings with the man and he is a belligerant rambling man with no clue on modern techniques and concepts in trading . His opinion is less than worthless .

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