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Swing trade in CL


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Swing trade in CL

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  #1 (permalink)
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Last night I took a long in CL at 62.56, about 5 ticks from the very low. It took me a couple of tries so I'm down 25 ticks, but in the money 75 ticks as we speak. I think a bounce of 500 ticks is reasonable, based on what I see on the chart.

One of my weaknesses has always been that I want to take the money and run. For some methods this works great, and sometimes I trade this way. But on this trade, we're down $15 in a month and think if we do snap back up, it could be rapid and could see $5 in a matter of a few days. Even more, I'd entertained the thought of just holding, maybe we get a break back above previous highs and oil skyrockets over $80.

It's premature as the market hasn't even opened and we could drop like a rock and all of this would be moot, but: any suggestions on how to let this go and hold for days, if it happens to work out?


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  #3 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Last night I took a long in CL at 62.56, about 5 ticks from the very low. It took me a couple of tries so I'm down 25 ticks, but in the money 75 ticks as we speak. I think a bounce of 500 ticks is reasonable, based on what I see on the chart.

One of my weaknesses has always been that I want to take the money and run. For some methods this works great, and sometimes I trade this way. But on this trade, we're down $15 in a month and think if we do snap back up, it could be rapid and could see $5 in a matter of a few days. Even more, I'd entertained the thought of just holding, maybe we get a break back above previous highs and oil skyrockets over $80.

It's premature as the market hasn't even opened and we could drop like a rock and all of this would be moot, but: any suggestions on how to let this go and hold for days, if it happens to work out?


Well, I don't feel qualified to offer much in the line of suggestions but it seems like simply a matter of perspective. I have money in a savings account that I don't even think of as "my money". I think to let it run you gotta do that kinda thing. Pick a target and assess strength or weakness. Most likely you will lose some on the far side as negotiate where to get out but you are in at a great area (if we get strength today, which it's looking like right now).
I was looking at a move down to 61.50 for a crack at a long but you may have nailed it. If we get a good move today you will have nothing but the quality problem of how much profit do you want to take. As a guy who picked 76.50 as a good short area (before I lost my shit that day) I would have robbed myself on the strength of the move... so my advice in short?...think big. Go for new highs and follow your stop according to strength .
You should get more info soon... good luck...
Craig

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  #4 (permalink)
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I’d recommend to stick to fundamental market theory of support and resistance.

Observe how the market reacts at key levels for clues. If you have multiple contacts you could scale out at logical targets to improve your theoretical average then keep a couple runners in play in anticipation of new highs.

Best of luck with it!!


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Consider the concept of work. If the buyers are working hard to move price higher and they’re getting paid for their efforts this is a good sign for your position. But, if they continue to work yet gain no ground that could be a clue to take partial profits.


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  #6 (permalink)
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Finally, hopefully you know the statistical harmonic rotation of CL so that you can keep your stop outside of that rotation.


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