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I have a profitable NT strategy that I would advice on


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I have a profitable NT strategy that I would advice on

  #11 (permalink)
 eleven 
California, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
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Trading: Currency Futures
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I'm tormented by the fact that my strategy hasn't stopped working despite me stopped trading it twice...

I am going to revist

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  #12 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
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eleven View Post
The circles knocked me out...fear got the best of me


My two cents... as you probably have already realized, this is an emotional/psychological issue, not a broken system issue.

It is pretty obvious from the backtest that bad trades come around once in a while with this system. So at this point you either 1) have to accept that you will get more of these bad trades every once in a while, and not stop trading because of it, or 2) create a system that does not have these big losses. Either option is acceptable - whatever feels more comfortable to you.

This is a great example of why I laugh at people who say system trading takes the emotion out. It doesn't.

I think you are on the right path.

Sorry for sidetracking the discussion away from your original post.

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  #13 (permalink)
 tpredictor 
North Carolina
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Trading: es
Posts: 644 since Nov 2011


Here is a better question, did you quit because of the losses or did you quit because you do not believe in the model? For most, it is not the losses. It is (1) not believing in the model to begin with and (2) not committing to trading the system. Now, why do you not believe in the model? Most models that we can build and test are necessarily incomplete or false models. That is because it is impossible to capture the realities of the forces driving the markets into a single well testable model. The more factors that are included and the more complex the model becomes then the less reliable the testing. There is important understanding that derive from this basic concept.

Complex models are more likely to be robust but the parameters are less well-known. In other words, you can know you are making good decisions but you cannot know the returns of those decisions. Or if looking at it from systems, you can know the model incorporates more information but the testing is less accurate.

Simple models have well known properties. You can know more precisely know how the model performed in the past and when it is performing differently. It is easier to test and verify. You can know what the distributions should be like but the trade off is that you must accept to trading an incomplete model.

There are really two problems (1) not believing in the model and (2) not accepting the actual risks of the model. In other words, the model demonstrated to you that these sorts of losses would occur.

Would it be accurate to say that you committed to trade the system or you tried out trading the system twice? Most people do not commit to trading a system. Why would they when they know the model is incomplete? You tried the system out and you didn't like the results.

Based on the information provided, if I were you then I would definitely not attempt to trade this system again unless you formulate your rules for what will cause you to stop and possibly restart trading it. In addition given you didn't like it twice already: I think trying to reduce the risk is advisable. You say the system "continued to work". Perhaps a better way to think about it is that the market continued to move in such a way that the system profited.

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  #14 (permalink)
 
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eleven View Post
@jmont1,

Thanks for reply and your suggestions. I guess I'm looking more for a partnership than anything. Didn't mean to scare anyone with the lawyer comment. My strategy took a while to develop and I'd rather not post it at this time. I do understand the spirit of this community to help others. Tonight I will move my post to the appropriate section in the forum.

eleven

What are you seeking in this partnership?

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email [email protected]
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  #15 (permalink)
 emini_Holy_Grail 
Dallas,TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
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eleven View Post
kevinkdog,

fear got me in the downturns, wishing both times I kept trading. obviously i didn't have enough risk capital on it (or fortitude)

here is the past 12 months...

RESULTS IN YELLOW
Start Equity Ruin Median Drawdown Median $ prof Median Return Return/DD
$30,000 16% 37.3% $16,531 55% 1.51
$37,500 7% 31.4% $17,200 46% 1.46
$45,000 3% 27.5% $17,463 39% 1.35
$52,500 1% 24.3% $18,550 35% 1.47
$60,000 0% 22.2% $16,381 27% 1.32
$67,500 0% 20.0% $17,606 26% 1.30
$75,000 0% 18.1% $17,594 23% 1.34
$82,500 0% 16.8% $18,069 22% 1.31
$90,000 0% 15.4% $16,050 18% 1.16
$97,500 0% 14.7% $17,138 18% 1.19
$105,000 0% 13.7% $17,081 16% 1.18


It's a swing strategy. 5-6 days average trade

-- I am strategy user for a long time
what symbols did you trade to get these resulys
backtest dont make sense so you should run in real time and post
what time frame chart did you use swing trade
swing trade would need high stop and higher profit

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  #16 (permalink)
 eleven 
California, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: Kinetick
Trading: Currency Futures
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mattz View Post
What are you seeking in this partnership?

Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Not sure actually. I'm thinking 50/50 capital investing, I own the strategy code. Currently trading 1 /ES contract short and 2 long. As our capital builds we trade 2 short and 4 long. We each put in ~$25K to start.

I'm open to any suggestions on how to do this. I'm about 1-2 weeks away from trading this again.

eleven

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  #17 (permalink)
 
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eleven View Post
Not sure actually. I'm thinking 50/50 capital investing, I own the strategy code. Currently trading 1 /ES contract short and 2 long. As our capital builds we trade 2 short and 4 long. We each put in ~$25K to start.

I'm open to any suggestions on how to do this. I'm about 1-2 weeks away from trading this again.

eleven

I will PM you my email. If you are a truly profitable trader, I will offer you a number of solutions.

Thank you,
Matt Z
Optimus Futures

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email [email protected]
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