NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Risking 2 for 1.. probability & the bottom line.


Discussion in Traders Hideout

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Revan with 5 posts (1 thanks)
    2. looks_two kevinkdog with 2 posts (10 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Trailer Guy with 2 posts (4 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Ozquant with 2 posts (3 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one TradingOgre with 7 thanks per post
    2. looks_two kevinkdog with 5 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 TheShrike with 4 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 bobwest with 3.5 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 4,171 views
    2. thumb_up 49 thanks given
    3. group 8 followers
    1. forum 20 posts
    2. attach_file 0 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Risking 2 for 1.. probability & the bottom line.

  #11 (permalink)
Revan
Brisbane, Australia
 
Posts: 95 since Mar 2018
Thanks Given: 72
Thanks Received: 26


TheShrike View Post
Stop trying to scalp. It's a fool's errand. You're wasting time and energy you could spend learning to trade.


bobwest View Post
It's very hard to think of something useful to say, when someone is aiming for a tick or so of profit.

If you can seriously consider trading

Can I just say that scalping is learning to trade and also that it is seriously considered trading?


Scalping is the most professional and economic way to trade, traders such as yourselves buy the product, it goes up in value over a while and falling some places but overall trending up as predicted, you sell. excellent, however..

During that time the scalper bought - sold - bought - sold - bought, and then along with yourself finally sold all along till the top, so the scalper racked up a fair bit more on the P&L than the typical technical trader as he is watching live supply and demand on a ladder in the moment, not a technical support pattern that takes at least half a day to generate and make a singular directional decision on.

Not only did he do this, but half of those times he didn't even have to give up the bid-ask spread, covering his commissions and increasing his already superior bottom line.

If the market hit a technical support level a chartist would buy, but the scalper can see market orders about to break the bid down to the lower level so he sells (BEFORE the breakout) and probably gets filled by the chartists' buy market order. Quite ironic seeing as though it's for fools. Also thanks for filling the scalper at limit and covering his commission. now this is getting humorous.

1 tick to you guys is a quick buck so I understand, here's why..

1 tick to you is not the same as one tick to me, for me it is not a quick buck, it's big money. you see, I use leverage to get my money, not predicting into the vast future and time/distance, as yourselves practice.

It's much easier to predict the next 2 minutes over the next 2 days, so why not do it now and use leverage, let the money work for you and keep the speculative part to a bare minimum.

Thanks for the advice though, there is parts of it that I can/will utilise, hopefully ruffled some feathers in this coop lol.


Peace

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
61 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
39 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
26 thanks
The Program
18 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
18 thanks
  #12 (permalink)
 
bobwest's Avatar
 bobwest 
Western Florida
Site Moderator
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 8,162 since Jan 2013
Thanks Given: 57,341
Thanks Received: 26,267


Revan View Post
Can I just say that scalping is learning to trade and also that it is seriously considered trading?


Scalping is the most professional and economic way to trade, traders such as yourselves buy the product, it goes up in value over a while and falling some places but overall trending up as predicted, you sell. excellent, however..

During that time the scalper bought - sold - bought - sold - bought, and then along with yourself finally sold all along till the top, so the scalper racked up a fair bit more on the P&L than the typical technical trader as he is watching live supply and demand on a ladder in the moment, not a technical support pattern that takes at least half a day to generate and make a singular directional decision on.

Not only did he do this, but half of those times he didn't even have to give up the bid-ask spread, covering his commissions and increasing his already superior bottom line.

If the market hit a technical support level a chartist would buy, but the scalper can see market orders about to break the bid down to the lower level so he sells (BEFORE the breakout) and probably gets filled by the chartists' buy market order. Quite ironic seeing as though it's for fools. Also thanks for filling the scalper at limit and covering his commission. now this is getting humorous.

1 tick to you guys is a quick buck so I understand, here's why..

1 tick to you is not the same as one tick to me, for me it is not a quick buck, it's big money. you see, I use leverage to get my money, not predicting into the vast future and time/distance, as yourselves practice.

It's much easier to predict the next 2 minutes over the next 2 days, so why not do it now and use leverage, let the money work for you and keep the speculative part to a bare minimum.

Thanks for the advice though, there is parts of it that I can/will utilise, hopefully ruffled some feathers in this coop lol.


Peace

Well....

Yeah, some of us have heard of scalping before. Even leverage.

And, you don't have any idea how anyone else trades. Maybe they predict into the vast future, maybe not.

So by all means give it a try. There's no way to know what works for you otherwise.

I think you will know a lot more, once you have in fact traded a live contract, though....

Best of luck, and I do mean it sincerely.

Bob.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #13 (permalink)
 
TheShrike's Avatar
 TheShrike 
Bridgeport, Ct
 
Experience: None
Broker: Tasty
Trading: Fops
Posts: 533 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 1,588
Thanks Received: 922



Revan View Post
Can I just say that scalping is learning to trade and also that it is seriously considered trading?


Scalping is the most professional and economic way to trade, traders such as yourselves buy the product, it goes up in value over a while and falling some places but overall trending up as predicted, you sell. excellent, however..

During that time the scalper bought - sold - bought - sold - bought, and then along with yourself finally sold all along till the top, so the scalper racked up a fair bit more on the P&L than the typical technical trader as he is watching live supply and demand on a ladder in the moment, not a technical support pattern that takes at least half a day to generate and make a singular directional decision on.

Not only did he do this, but half of those times he didn't even have to give up the bid-ask spread, covering his commissions and increasing his already superior bottom line.

If the market hit a technical support level a chartist would buy, but the scalper can see market orders about to break the bid down to the lower level so he sells (BEFORE the breakout) and probably gets filled by the chartists' buy market order. Quite ironic seeing as though it's for fools. Also thanks for filling the scalper at limit and covering his commission. now this is getting humorous.

1 tick to you guys is a quick buck so I understand, here's why..

1 tick to you is not the same as one tick to me, for me it is not a quick buck, it's big money. you see, I use leverage to get my money, not predicting into the vast future and time/distance, as yourselves practice.

It's much easier to predict the next 2 minutes over the next 2 days, so why not do it now and use leverage, let the money work for you and keep the speculative part to a bare minimum.

Thanks for the advice though, there is parts of it that I can/will utilise, hopefully ruffled some feathers in this coop lol.


Peace

Have fun in your fantasy world. You're obviously not here for discourse. Let us know how your Ninjatrader scalping bot does against the most well funded HFT firms in the world.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #14 (permalink)
 Trailer Guy 
Aguanga, CA USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader 8
Broker: IB, NinjaTrader Brokerage, Schwab
Trading: ES
Posts: 215 since Sep 2014
Thanks Given: 68
Thanks Received: 387

You are 100% correct in what you say about scalping. There is one tiny problem. You are not Citadel Trading running on a co-located server costing $50,000 a month for the floor space. Also you have not mentioned where you got your physics PhD from that taught you how to write code analysing vast amounts of data.

Please do get realistic before you lose your trading account. You don't tug on Superman's cape, you don't spit into the wind, and you don't out scalp Citadel.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #15 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 3,646 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 1,890
Thanks Received: 7,338

I love people who ask for advice, then dismiss it, if said advice disagrees with their worldview.

The market eats up obstinate people like that.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
  #16 (permalink)
 SpeculatorSeth   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 780 since Apr 2016
Thanks Given: 22
Thanks Received: 1,018

This tends not to work unless you are hitting 80%. It could work in ZN because you'll almost never get more than 1 tick of slippage. However, then you're risking -3 so...

The math works out a lot better if you're getting 3-6 ticks off risking 2-3. Even then you need a win rate over 45%.

- SpeculatorSeth
Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #17 (permalink)
 lone 
boston, MA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninjatrader
Trading: emini
Posts: 69 since Mar 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 65

risk 2 for 4 might work. 1 for 2, not likely. Price gotta trade through most of the time for you to get filled at target, while it only have to touch for you to stop out. At 1-2 I just don't see it.

Reply With Quote
  #18 (permalink)
Revan
Brisbane, Australia
 
Posts: 95 since Mar 2018
Thanks Given: 72
Thanks Received: 26


kevinkdog View Post
I love people who ask for advice, then dismiss it, if said advice disagrees with their worldview.

The market eats up obstinate people like that.

Haha yeah.. And did you notice he was risking 2 for 1? can't think of where that logic applies unless you already had over 80% win rate.

But yeah he has no chance gonna lose em all and blow up his account, just NO IDEA.


I'm out.

Edit: Life is too short to be annoyed by different point of views, you see it your way I see it mine, good day, blessings to all.

Reply With Quote
  #19 (permalink)
Ozquant
Brisbane Queensland Australia
 
Posts: 220 since Aug 2017
Thanks Given: 167
Thanks Received: 380


Revan View Post
Haha yeah.. And did you notice he was risking 2 for 1? can't think of where that logic applies unless you already had over 80% win rate.

But yeah he has no chance gonna lose em all and blow up his account, just NO IDEA.


I'm out.

Edit: Life is too short to be annoyed by different point of views, you see it your way I see it mine, good day, blessings to all.

You are going to blow up your account unless you are in the 1% . you need 80% WR just to break even after costs . When that inevitable fat tail slippage comes you will realise that , Suggest you look at probability curves/matrix and explore expectancy thoroughly . Clearly you know better , obviously you came here looking for confirmation bias , you just dont realise it . You got reality and that clearly doesnt suit your narrative so you dismiss the advice/opinion given as NO IDEA .... good luck for you are going to need it .

PS Decent chance the only winner here will be your broker and he will hope you survive for as long as possible

3 weeks ago looked at Sim and now know more than most ... This has to be a Parody surely ... lmao

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #20 (permalink)
Revan
Brisbane, Australia
 
Posts: 95 since Mar 2018
Thanks Given: 72
Thanks Received: 26



Ozquant View Post
You are going to blow up your account unless you are in the 1% . you need 80% WR just to break even after costs . When that inevitable fat tail slippage comes you will realise that , Suggest you look at probability curves/matrix and explore expectancy thoroughly . Clearly you know better , obviously you came here looking for confirmation bias , you just dont realise it . You got reality and that clearly doesnt suit your narrative so you dismiss the advice/opinion given as NO IDEA .... good luck for you are going to need it .

PS Decent chance the only winner here will be your broker and he will hope you survive for as long as possible


Here's some probability then, the more people who jump on the bandwagon and say I can't do this, the better it's going to feel when I return in a few months with some brokerage statements. xD

Reply With Quote




Last Updated on August 6, 2018


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts