How to predict if a market will be volatile?
futures io futures trading



How to predict if a market will be volatile?


Traders Hideout

Created July 29th 2018 by TickedOff
Updated August 22nd 2018 by MACTHERIVERRAT
looks_onexplorer with 7 posts
looks_twoiantg with 4 posts
looks_3Blash with 4 posts
looks_4bobwest with 3 posts
 
trending_up1,594 views
thumb_up36 thanks given
forum19 replies
attach_file2 attachments



Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 100,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

How to predict if a market will be volatile?

  #1 (permalink)
Sydney, NSW, Australia
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader with Jigsaw DOM
Favorite Futures: CL, 6E, ES, Piano
 
TickedOff's Avatar
 
Posts: 263 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 224 given, 238 received

How to predict if a market will be volatile?

What are some things to look out for that indicate a day will have some big moves? I perform way better in fast markets

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
CFTC Quietly Bails Out Capital One
Traders Hideout
adding labels that always stay on the left on horizonal lines
ThinkOrSwim
More order types or programmable trading
Stocks and ETFs
Remek! Market Scanner Pro
NinjaTrader
How to detach charts and save chart position
MetaTrader
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
Recession? Depression? Bailout!
224 thanks
ES futures Spoo-nalysis SP500/SPX
214 thanks
Coronavirus COVID-19
154 thanks
Understanding Footprint Charts / Number bars
78 thanks
New to futures, would like advice
45 thanks
 
  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
  #3 (permalink)
Super Moderator
London UK
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,916 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 12,339 given, 10,961 received



TickedOff View Post
What are some things to look out for that indicate a day will have some big moves? I perform way better in fast markets

One indication I always am on the lookout for is how many resting orders are stacked on the DOM.

These 2 screenshots are for CL, for two different periods of the US session (i.e. one was taken many months ago, one recently). In one you can see that each level has a depth of between ~70 and ~140, whereas in the other they are between ~30 and ~60.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Generally speaking a thicker market is less volatile, given volatility and liquidity resting on the DOM are inversely correlated.


Last edited by xplorer; July 29th, 2018 at 09:50 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to xplorer for this post:
 
  #4 (permalink)
Sydney, NSW, Australia
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader with Jigsaw DOM
Favorite Futures: CL, 6E, ES, Piano
 
TickedOff's Avatar
 
Posts: 263 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 224 given, 238 received


xplorer View Post
One indication I always am on the lookout for is how many resting orders are stacked on the DOM.

These 2 screenshots are for CL, for two different time periods. In one you can see that each level has a depth of between ~70 and ~140, whereas in the other they are between ~30 and ~60.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Generally speaking a thicker market is less volatile, given volatility and liquidity resting on the DOM are inversely correlated.

Day is most volatile during US session then european then asian session I dont bother with the asian session

Understanding yourself is just as important as understanding markets.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to TickedOff for this post:
 
  #5 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Quebec
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,874 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,484 given, 4,933 received


Quoting 
“As you can see, we’re experiencing rough air at the moment. But as a reminder, we can’t predict rough air,” said the Delta airline pilot ferrying me from St. Louis to Charleston (via Atlanta—always Atlanta), “so please keep your seatbelts on whenever you are seated.”

Source:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timmaurer/2018/02/11/the-only-market-volatility-prediction-you-can-count-on/#7c226fa6c854

Devise strategies which are not based on prediction to perform.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
  #6 (permalink)
Bridgeport, Ct
 
Trading Experience: None
Broker/Data: Tasty
Favorite Futures: STONKS
 
TheShrike's Avatar
 
Posts: 490 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 1,408 given, 771 received

There is no way to tell day type ahead of time. The best you can do is operate in markets that are known for having a high degree of intra day volatility. Check out NQ YM NG GC. Stay away from ES CL and Bonds.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to TheShrike for this post:
 
  #7 (permalink)
Sydney, NSW, Australia
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader with Jigsaw DOM
Favorite Futures: CL, 6E, ES, Piano
 
TickedOff's Avatar
 
Posts: 263 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 224 given, 238 received


trendisyourfriend View Post

My goal is to break even or cash a small profit on quiet days is a practice test for me given one big day can outperform a week of quiet markets

Understanding yourself is just as important as understanding markets.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to TickedOff for this post:
 
  #8 (permalink)
Super Moderator
London UK
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,916 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 12,339 given, 10,961 received


TickedOff View Post
Day is most volatile during US session then european then asian session I dont bother with the asian session

Never said it was the Asian session

Those are two screenshots of US sessions.



EDIT: sorry I just realized I may have not conveyed it right in the first post. I will amend "for two different time periods" to something else.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to xplorer for this post:
 
  #9 (permalink)
North Carolina
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Favorite Futures: es
 
Posts: 644 since Nov 2011

Think about the value of inside information and how uncertainty affects the value of that information and that might provide a clue as to why you perform better in fast markets. You can use the prior day to get an estimate for the current day range. As for larger then "normal" moves, new information or some sort of change or narrative will drive that more then anything.


TickedOff View Post
What are some things to look out for that indicate a day will have some big moves? I perform way better in fast markets


Reply With Quote
 
  #10 (permalink)
charlotte nc
 
Trading Experience: Master
Platform: ninjatrader
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: Emini (ES, YM, NQ, ect.)
 
Posts: 393 since Jan 2015
Thanks: 72 given, 995 received


Very high volatility periods tend to last for days or weeks and only change back to medium or low volatility on news releases that normalize the markets again. I remember when February of this year hit an extremely high volatility period we were in it for several weeks.

If the goal is to try to trade during high volatility periods only, then I recommend the following.

1. Quantify first what characteristics define high volatility, medium volatility, low volatility etc. This various per instrument, but as others have said the big easy to read signs are the thickness of the DOM and the speed of the tape.

2. Find a few days historically in the last year when the market changed from medium to high volatility.... Once it moved into high volatility how long did it stay there and what broke it finally. In the US what I have observed at least this year, is that news comes out that freaks everyone out and the market goes crazy for a few days or a week or two and unless new news to the contrary comes out.... the high volatility continues. There has been a lot more panic and fear this year than in the past. It used to be just an econ news release drove the volatility high for a few days and then things would calm down.

3. Once you can see the patterns historically of: News > High Volatility > Some event to slow it back down: In in connection with this you can define the average high volatility period once we move into it... Then you can find your proverbial sweet spot.


You will likely have to correlate news and historical data to paint this picture completely but once you have all the pieces I think you could predict this fairly easily for the future.


Best of Luck!

Ian

In the analytical world there is no such thing as art, there is only the science you know and the science you don't know. Characterizing the science you don't know as "art" is a fools game.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to iantg for this post:

Reply



futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout > How to predict if a market will be volatile?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

futures io is celebrating 10-years w/ over $18,000 in prizes!

Right now
 

$250 Amazon Gift Cards with our "Thanks Contest" challenge!

Right now
 

Social Media Predictive Data for Traders w/Joe Gits @ SMA [and Lime Brokerage]

Apr 9
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
how to identify/predict the market counting on the future index. salman issa Traders Hideout 2 February 9th, 2017 03:59 PM
How to predict market drops? mcteague Traders Hideout 9 December 9th, 2014 07:11 PM
Study offers hope we could predict the next market crash kbit Traders Hideout 0 February 11th, 2012 12:10 PM
Multicharts / predict Indicator Value Locust MultiCharts 6 March 4th, 2011 05:12 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:02 AM. (this page content is cached, log in for real-time version)

Copyright © 2020 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts