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scalp the ES mini using fibonacci tool on ninja trader
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scalp the ES mini using fibonacci tool on ninja trader

  #11 (permalink)
Missioul Montana usa
Posts: 5 since Feb 2016
Thanks: 1 given, 10 received

fibs w ramblings

Fib's are no magic bullet. 50% retrace zone calc's out better and more consistent. Price moves from confluence to confluence of "signals" because more traders are there and thus more orders, targets, exits, entries..and they are tiered there to get filled and the best fills. Fibs have more "gravity", validity, probability if they are confluencing with other items like prior support/resistance, a trend line, a wave point, vwap, poc, an ma, band, pivot etc. and totally depends on context, the bigger patterns and the time zone that is occurring. Look for the confluences. Each item has its own weighting. Certain combinations of confluencing factors etc have more or less weight or "gravity".
H.Simon in studying Chess Masters found that after thousands of hours they see the the pieces differently than everyone else. Thesis: The same is true in trading. Take the long term view to learn. Then practice like a pro golfer or Chess player. When you are entering the market you are basically paying to compete with Trading Grand Masters. A Grand Chess Master has about 20,000 games committed to memory and and visualizes an entire game before it starts. They are generally thinking 15-20 moves out. T.G.M.'s are doing the same. They recognize price action, patterns, waves, morphs and push them and step in front of them pulling $ out of the market all session long. They know all the common trading knowledge out there and capitalize on it by out maneuvering it. Fortunately the market is massive and they can't be everywhere all the time. They are stealth and don't write books. Study and practice, you will see the market differently over time. Opinions come from traders at different levels seeing the market congruent with their level. Would you pay to pay poker against a pro? Would you pay to play golf against Tiger Woods? Would you pay to play against a Fortnight pro gamer? In the markets you are competing against pro gamer/Chess Master types w heavy tools...lightening fast systems, staffs, a.i.'s, algo's etc. Fibs..they can work if there are enough confluencing factors there to create a critical mass of action. The only way to recognize when that's going to happen is first being able to "see" it. Then you have to be able to execute. Order execution is just as important as being able to "see" the market and gets almost no attention. Order execution should be practiced much as a golf pro puts in the tens of thousands of swings before he's ever in an amateur tournament. The only way around the cognitive biases is if x occurs do x1, if y occurs do y1...its different than predicting. "Imagine different scenarios, take the one that confirms." Bruce Kovner. If it gets near that confluencing fib will do x or y depending on how it reacts there. How big is the buy/sell tier there..and how does price react etc. Learn long and practice. Think of learning to trade like getting a P.H.D. Put in the 10,000 hours it takes to master something. Remember, the ego just wants to be right and have an opinion and it will sabotage you account while being "right". Save your money, take the long view, Learn, practice. It helps to find the markets fascinating. In today's markets, things (patterns, waves) are recognized sooner and pushed then stepped in front of tweaking waves and patterns into bullish/bearish variants and then they morph. the classic look of a pattern or a wave is rare. The waves and pattern forces are there tweaked. Once you see them you can't not see them, they are everywhere and fractal. The kicker is price focus moves thru time frames as traders step in front of traders on a 5 min chart it may go to a 3 min etc..shift up your time frames if you don't see anything, to one where you do, like shifting a stick shift car on a mountain road. Higher time frames tell you what happened, lower tell you whats happening..current very low tells you how its happening. Trade the far right edge. If you learn price action you will know where the orders will be ahead of any flow indicator, you will eventually see just ahead of time what any indicator will show you and they will just be for confirmation after the fact. If you see something, others do to..find where the big audience is. If you know where the big audience will be, get in front of them. Buy lower than the next price, the last price ..and for some zen..the current price..and sell vice versa...( catching the twitch or spike). The point is, it's not just about fibs, or patterns, or trend lines..etc. Take the time to see that its about all of it, confluencing. "A great entry, forgives many sins". I obviously need to cut back on the caffeine.

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