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will futures ever discontinue?
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will futures ever discontinue?

  #1 (permalink)
Boston Massachusetts USA
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will futures ever discontinue?

Random and "dumb" question i know. But would a market like futures ever discontinue in the US or anywhere for that matter? Like forex could be regulated away for only the high capital players, stocks does require 25k for day traders, but i think we can all agree the stock market is never going anywhere. I was just wonder if futures is like how stocks is and will most likely never really go anywhere and we will always be blessed with it?

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
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Billions Traded

According to an article in Investopedia dated April 2015 Forex is a 5 Trillion dollar a day business and Futures is a 112 Billion dollar a day business.

I don't think a 112 billion dollar a day business is going any where soon. I don't think we will have anything to worry about.

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  #4 (permalink)
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I agree. Futures contracts are actually a price discovery mechanism, and their fundamental use is for hedging by product producers (farmers growing grains for example, or metal producers mining and smelting products), and product users (think food production companies like ConAgra and ADM, or companies using gold, silver or copper for industrial purposes). All of these folks need a way to discover price, and to hedge against the possibility of future unfavorable price moves. Speculators enter these markets to make money, and provide another useful function: liquidity. So long as we have food production, metal production, people producing and refining the softs, etc., we are always going to have the futures market. By the way, futures contracts are an actual delivery contract, if I understand correctly. If you buy a futures contract for speculative purposes, and don't get out of your contract prior to the delivery date, you're going to own a lot of corn, wheat, silver or copper!! It will be at a port destination, and you'll need to find storage for it, or someone to take it off your hands for cash. Not a fun position to be in!!

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  #5 (permalink)
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Taking Delivery on a Futures Contract

If you take delivery on a Futures Contract the product will be in a storage facility and you will get a receipt and a bill for storage and insurance and of course you have to pay for the product. Usually your clearing firm will help you sell it, but expect a lecture from the firms risk manager about taking delivery. Usually after notice day your broker will be after you to roll the contract so you don't take delivery.

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  #6 (permalink)
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Jayboii478 View Post
But would a market like futures ever discontinue in the US or anywhere for that matter?

Futures markets were invented for people who dealt in the physical commodity to be able to hedge their risk. As long as there is a physical product there will always be a market required for hedging. Speculators will then trade in that market too.

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  #7 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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I'm not sure if you mean futures in general or specific future markets.

Specific futures can easily go away. An example would be the NYMEX Gasoline Contract (HU). The Federal specification rules for Gasoline changed in such a way to make the contract obsolete and it was eventually delisted and replaced with an RBOB Contract. (RB)

With regards to futures in general, I think it's unlikely but possible. If it does happen though they will probably be replaced with something else. Ten years ago, the swap market was huge, now it's completely gone in some commodities - but it was replaced by 'cleared futures' that trade OTC and not exchange.

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