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How to Break Through in Trading
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How to Break Through in Trading

  #1 (permalink)
baltimore md
 
 
Posts: 8 since Dec 2017
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How to Break Through in Trading

I have been trading off and on for the past 3 years or so. I have basically been treading water the whole time. I haven't blown up an account nor have I really made any decent money. I have never had a mentor and never really spent any money on education besides books. I figured by now that I would be somewhat consistent in making money. I rely mostly on Ichimoku and trade ES,GC and CL. I also trading stocks with 5% or more gap at the open. I'm not sure where I really go from here. My one trader friend suggest I find a mentor and spend money on education. Any advice is appreciated.

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
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Jeremy1984 View Post
I have been trading off and on for the past 3 years or so. I have basically been treading water the whole time. I haven't blown up an account nor have I really made any decent money. I have never had a mentor and never really spent any money on education besides books. I figured by now that I would be somewhat consistent in making money. I rely mostly on Ichimoku and trade ES,GC and CL. I also trading stocks with 5% or more gap at the open. I'm not sure where I really go from here. My one trader friend suggest I find a mentor and spend money on education. Any advice is appreciated.

Do you know if your Ichimoku or 5% gaps have positive expectancy?

And, think about why I'd ask this question, given your circumstances...

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  #4 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Memphis TN
 
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Pariah Carey's Avatar
 
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I’m sort of in the same situation but it’s been going on longer than three years. This year I’m actually going to turn a modest profit, though I am still a long ways from “making it.” I’ve learned that I must take responsibility for my trading decisions, that I have to figure things out for myself, and that I must treat trading like a business. I have to show up every day and be serious about it. I’ve made changes in areas of my life that some might say have nothing to do with trading, like diet, sleep, and alcohol intake. I want to be the best trader that I can be.

Become an elite member of this forum. Best two ES points you’ll ever spend. Read the spoos thread, big mikes advice and ask any question threads, and inletcap’s stuff. Those opened up whole new galaxies for me and taught me to see the markets in ways I never imagined.

Oh and “off and on” isn’t going to cut it. It’s got to be an everyday thing. I’m not a day trader, but I spend as much time as I can each day studying charts and movements. I need to ready for when my premise on a trade gets challenged, and it will, sometimes frequently. I need to stay pliable.

Money make ya handsome

Last edited by Pariah Carey; December 7th, 2017 at 08:59 PM.
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  #5 (permalink)
Dayton, Ohio
 
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Pariah Carey View Post
...Read the spoos thread, big mikes advice and ask any question threads, and inletcap’s stuff. Those opened up whole new galaxies for me and taught me to see the markets in ways I never imagined. ...

I'm still working my way around FIO, so could you direct me to what part of the forum one would find those threads, @Pariah Carey?

Thanks much.

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  #6 (permalink)
baltimore md
 
 
Posts: 8 since Dec 2017
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kevinkdog View Post
Do you know if your Ichimoku or 5% gaps have positive expectancy?

And, think about why I'd ask this question, given your circumstances...

I have never really took the time to journal my trades. I guess that's ones of the reasons I am in the position I am in.

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  #7 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Jeremy1984 View Post
I have never really took the time to journal my trades. I guess that's ones of the reasons I am in the position I am in.

Finding out about positive expectancy isn't from journaling your trades, at least not at first.

It is about knowing whatever approach/rules etc you are using have actually worked in the past.

If the OP addresses my question/reply to him, I can get specific with what he is doing (Ichi, 5% gaps). Then you'll see what I mean.

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  #8 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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bulge View Post
I'm still working my way around FIO, so could you direct me to what part of the forum one would find those threads, @Pariah Carey?

Thanks much.

Don't have time to post links, but a couple are in the elite circle sticky threads. Use the search box too and you'll find more.

Money make ya handsome
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  #9 (permalink)
baltimore md
 
 
Posts: 8 since Dec 2017
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kevinkdog View Post
Finding out about positive expectancy isn't from journaling your trades, at least not at first.

It is about knowing whatever approach/rules etc you are using have actually worked in the past.

If the OP addresses my question/reply to him, I can get specific with what he is doing (Ichi, 5% gaps). Then you'll see what I mean.

I guess I do not have a positive expectancy with my trading since I am a net loser. I have jumped around different platforms, tried various techniques (Elliott wave, Fibonacci, tick charts, etc.) and have never had a positive expectancy. I have never traded more than 1 contract either. To be honest, I feel like I was a better trader when I first started.

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  #10 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: Tradestation, DeCarley, others
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,620 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,355 given, 4,999 received



Jeremy1984 View Post
I guess I do not have a positive expectancy with my trading since I am a net loser. I have jumped around different platforms, tried various techniques (Elliott wave, Fibonacci, tick charts, etc.) and have never had a positive expectancy. I have never traded more than 1 contract either. To be honest, I feel like I was a better trader when I first started.

Hi Jeremy -

What you describe is a pretty common issue with newer traders, myself included back in the day.

Many failed traders spend years and years, always jumping from one method to another method, usually searching in vain, almost always ending up in failure.

So you need to turn this around. The way to do it is to find a method that works. I'm not saying to rely on the advice of some "guru" who says "gaps will make you money" or "Ellliott wave is a proven method."

I'm saying you need to historically test a method yourself - prove it has had historical positive expectancy. That does not mean it will work in the future, but ask yourself if it is better to trade something that has a history of working, or one that has a history of not working.

Most people actually take the easy way out - they decide on a method where they have no clue on if it has worked before or not. That is easier than testing, for sure. But then they wonder why they haven;t made money after X years.

TL;DR - HISTORICALLY TEST UNTIL YOU FIND A METHOD THAT WORKS (POSITIVE EXPECTANCY).

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