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Winner's Curse Discussion
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Winner's Curse Discussion

  #1 (permalink)
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Winner's Curse Discussion

Does winner's curse apply when trading markets? Why or not why? Does it apply more for getting filled on limit or market order?

Wikipedia says winner's curse is the tendency to overbid the true value of something. Could winner's curse be driving cryptos?

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
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tpredictor View Post
Does winner's curse apply when trading markets? Why or not why? Does it apply more for getting filled on limit or market order?

Wikipedia says winner's curse is the tendency to overbid the true value of something. Could winner's curse be driving cryptos?

I think that the winner's curse applies to a different situation.

The scenario of the winner's curse refers to an auction with many bidders and a single supplier. In this scenario the average bid is typically lower than the value of the good, while the highest bid is typically well above the value of the good. Otherwise put, the winner of an auction has overpaid the good.

A continuous auction typically has many suppliers and bidders, and the concept of the winner's curse does not apply.

However, the concept could apply to a takeover of a company, if there are several bidders. Facebook certainly overpaid WhatsApp for $ 19 billion. Another example is the auction of 3rd generation UMTS licenses in Germany back in 2000. The licenses were sold for an aggregate $ 50 billion, which did no good to the stock prices of any of the companies that purchased them.

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  #4 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Fat Tails View Post
I think that the winner's curse applies to a different situation.

The scenario of the winner's curse refers to an auction with many bidders and a single supplier. In this scenario the average bid is typically lower than the value of the good, while the highest bid is typically well above the value of the good. Otherwise put, the winner of an auction has overpaid the good.

A continuous auction typically has many suppliers and bidders, and the concept of the winner's curse does not apply.

However, the concept could apply to a takeover of a company, if there are several bidders. Facebook certainly overpaid WhatsApp for $ 19 billion. Another example is the auction of 3rd generation UMTS licenses in Germany back in 2000. The licenses were sold for an aggregate $ 50 billion, which did no good to the stock prices of any of the companies that purchased them.

+1.
Well said. Agree

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