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  #21 (permalink)
 AfewUniversesBelo 
Bel Air, Maryland
 
Posts: 22 since Jul 2017

This is what happened.



I start again having learned more.

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Can you help answer these questions
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  #22 (permalink)
ConsensusArb
Atlanta Georgia
 
Posts: 7 since Apr 2016
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Stay with it.

How big have the drawdowns been, and how much are you looking to raise?

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  #23 (permalink)
 AfewUniversesBelo 
Bel Air, Maryland
 
Posts: 22 since Jul 2017


I'm in near 100% of account value every day, drawdowns can be 50% in a week. Go to 2-3 weeks, and I usually recover. In 11 months, the lowest 30day value is -22% (highest is +158%).

I'm looking for at least $50,000. I'm use to playing 5-10 Futures every day, which is 25k value minimum.

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  #24 (permalink)
ConsensusArb
Atlanta Georgia
 
Posts: 7 since Apr 2016
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If you want to be a professional, you need to get much better control over the risk. 50% drawdown in a week is incredibly high. I would shut down my entire operation if I have a drawdown of 10% at this point. You must protect the principal. That is one of the major differences between simulated trading and live exposure. 50% drawdowns on a regular basis are completely unbearable to the vast majority of investors (even those that SAY that they can handle it).



What is chronicled in The Big Short about Michael Burry is instructive in this regard. His investors were all professionals, who had the capability to understand the trade that he had on if they were interested. It was an incredible bet by all accounts, but he was almost completely put out of business by lawsuits when he went into a drawdown of >20% while he was waiting for the trade to pay off. He recovered the drawdown and added almost 5X to boot but it was such a terrible experience that he removed himself from the business of running outside money.


From what I can tell based on what you have posted, you are on your way to being a professional, but you need to devote more time to systematically understanding and managing your risks. Making your process systematic can help with this. This is MUCH more important than making good predictions. All predictive models degrade over time as they are discovered by other participants. The people and firms that have had longevity in the business are expert in managing their exposure to loss and continuously changing with the opportunity set that the markets offer.


Stay with it. I am looking forward to seeing your progression.

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  #25 (permalink)
 AfewUniversesBelo 
Bel Air, Maryland
 
Posts: 22 since Jul 2017

Trade on less value, 20% of account total or whatever you want to do... problem solved.

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  #26 (permalink)
 tpredictor 
North Carolina
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Trading: es
Posts: 644 since Nov 2011

@AFewUniverseBelo

I suggest you take a more serious approach if you want to get funding. You need to reduce your drawdowns to something reasonable. Small traders will not accept drawdowns of more then around 30% historically while a larger investor might limit it to 15% or less.

I really recommend that you develop a realistic plan so that you can trade real money and benefit from whatever abilities you might have. I am telling you from experience that attempting to improve your trading is very unlikely to lead to any sort of tangible success without the requisite capital or a plan to obtain it (by demonstrating in a tracked broker account or something).

As well, unless you are trading your own capital assuming you make a 100% return on 50k over 1 year and assuming you get 20% of the profits then you would only make $10,000. That is not enough to make a living. You will need some sort of better plan.

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  #27 (permalink)
 AfewUniversesBelo 
Bel Air, Maryland
 
Posts: 22 since Jul 2017

This world is strange... (replying on a whim. No need for judgments or beliefs. If a mod sees, please delete?)

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Last Updated on October 26, 2017


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