Winning and losing streak analysis - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Winning and losing streak analysis
Updated: Views / Replies:2,423 / 4
Created: by MWG86 Attachments:3

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 100,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

 
 
Thread Tools
 

Winning and losing streak analysis

 
Winnipeg, MB Canada
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Oanda
Favorite Futures: EURUSD (spot forex)
 
MWG86's Avatar
 
Posts: 491 since Jul 2015
Thanks: 858 given, 623 received

Winning and losing streak analysis

I am doing some analysis around maximum likely consecutive winners and losers based on different win percentages. My math is a bit rusty so I was hoping someone with a bit more skill could let me know if the results I've calculated pass the sniff test. I put together the following table and the formulas that I used are footnoted at the bottom.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



My next step is to run some Monte Carlo analysis to get a better understanding of the distribution of results along with what could be expected on a percentile basis, rather than just the maximums calculated here but wanted to have a baseline to compare the results against.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to MWG86 for this post:
 
 
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
 
sweden
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader,MetaTrader
Favorite Futures: futures, FX
 
Mabi's Avatar
 
Posts: 104 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 98 given, 94 received


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


live result.

 
 
Brisbane Queensland Australia
 
 
Posts: 191 since Aug 2017
Thanks: 124 given, 297 received

Max and Min consec isnt of much use . A probability matrix or curve is what you really require . I have an excel formula that produces exactly that . Here is a table i found on the net thats at least a guide . The excel file i have you can input trade sample with win rate



Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

The following 2 users say Thank You to Ozquant for this post:
 
 
Winnipeg, MB Canada
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Oanda
Favorite Futures: EURUSD (spot forex)
 
MWG86's Avatar
 
Posts: 491 since Jul 2015
Thanks: 858 given, 623 received


Ozquant View Post
Max and Min consec isnt of much use . A probability matrix or curve is what you really require . I have an excel formula that produces exactly that . Here is a table i found on the net thats at least a guide . The excel file i have you can input trade sample with win rate

Thanks @Ozquant for the matrix. Maybe I should've clarified the reason behind the question in my initial post. I'm a discretionary trader taking entries based off of a combination of price action and fundamental analysis. I've been struggling trading through drawdowns so was looking to do a study of what can be expected in terms of how many consecutive losses are statistically possible based on win percentage. With this in mind, I'm curious as to why you say that max and min consec isn't of much use?



BTW, to answer my own question above, I ran a 5,000 iteration Monte Carlo analysis on a randomly generated set of 5,000 trades based on win percentage and I can confirm that the figures in the table on my original post are accurate. I also calculated what can be expected on a 10th and 25th percentile basis and posted the results in my journal (wanted to keep it in the Elite section to support the site).

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to MWG86 for this post:

 



futures io > > > Winning and losing streak analysis
Thread Tools



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

futures io is celebrating 10-years w/ over $18,000 in prizes!

Right now
 

$1,000 in Amazon Gift Cards being given away right now from GFF Brokers

Right now
 

$250 Amazon Gift Cards with our "Thanks Contest" challenge!

Right now
 

Show us your trading desks and win over $5,000 in prizes w/Jigsaw Trading

August
 

Webinar: Chart Patterns and Practical Trading Stats w/Suri Duddella

Elite only
 

Webinar: Richard Bailey (TBA)

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Whats been your worst losing streak? Grantx Beginners and Introductions 7 January 12th, 2017 11:18 PM
losing faith in walk-forward analysis pintope Psychology and Money Management 7 December 13th, 2014 11:17 AM
Dow, S&P 500 down after two-day winning streak; Tesla plunges on outlook Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 November 6th, 2013 12:40 AM
Volume Crashes As S&P 500 Breaks Winning Streak Even And VIX Plunges To Five Year Low kbit News and Current Events 0 August 13th, 2012 04:54 PM
Look Ahead: Will Stocks Break Out of Losing Streak? Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 March 22nd, 2012 09:50 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:32 PM. (this page content is cached, log in for real-time version)

Copyright © 2019 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts