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Short Scalp trade on momentum...
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Created: by Jugador Attachments:5

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Short Scalp trade on momentum...

  #21 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
cunparis's Avatar
Posts: 2,565 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,157 given, 2,059 received

Jugador View Post
I guess it's a question of probabilities. Lets say we both make the trade, and you buy 1 unit with a 15 tick stop loss. So, now you need a 15 tick rally to get a 1-1 trade.

Doing it my way, I never need more than a 5 tick rally to get a 1-1 trade.

There's a higher probability you'll get a 5 tick move before you get a 15 tick move.

If you take 5 tick and stop out you then it's the same exact thing.

I have one 15 tick loss.
You will have 3 5 tick losses.

The result is the same.

I suggest you trade this on a simulator for a week or two and post the results.

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  #22 (permalink)
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: IB
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Jugador's Avatar
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cunparis View Post

The result is the same.

The end result would the same if we both lost. Actually, you'd need 2 units to risk the same as me. ($375) But, the odds of me winning a 1-1 ratio trade before you are higher. It's much easier to catch a 5 tick move than a 15 tick.

BTW: Thanks for posting questions in my thread. Good debate causes a man to put his thinking cap on!

Last edited by Jugador; August 19th, 2009 at 05:11 PM.
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  #23 (permalink)
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
Jugador's Avatar
Posts: 163 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 67 given, 51 received

Hey guys, I know this thread is a little old, but I ran into an interesting article today that explains better what I was trying to get at in post #18 of this thread. There's a nice little chart accompanying the article.

The article basically corroborates my belief that there is a big difference in "averaging down" and "averaging in" as part of a trade idea.

This style of trading still may not be your cup of tea, but some of the scalpers here may find it interesting.

Trade Like a Dealer

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