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You lost your mind!? My quotes and arguments about trading
I read a lot of forums, I look at what people write - what strategies they are trying to trade. Guys - are you out of your mind? Do you really think that the price action works, trend lines, support and resistance lines, cluster analysis, sales tape viewing, indicators.
All the classic technical analysis will work until the time it needs a market maker.
Listen to the guys, the market maker is a painter, yes yes he's a painter! Its task is to provide liquidity and make money on it. Therefore, he will draw for the crowd any formation that you would believe in it.
To earn permanently and consistently - you need to find really open positions, which are protected by the market maker.
There are so many different strategies and many of them are considered to be profitable. But to catch a very strong movement, you need to wait until the market maker draws a beautiful formation for the crowd - a trend channel, or a beautiful line of support or resistance. It is important not the number of transactions and their quality - but a strong movement to prepare for a long time.
Give an example Gold 60 min chart
Classic technical analysis says that you need to sell from the top of the channel
Point 1 - we see that the market broke through the trend channel and went up, and then turned sharply and fell down.
This is an excellent example of how a market maker can draw a beautiful trend channel and drive everyone into sales. If you look at point 1 on the chart for 5 minutes, then there is even more interesting.
In my trade I do not use indicators - the most objective is price, volume and reaction to this volume
So somebody selling the channel top took a small loss when it made a new high. Then price failed to break away but came back to the top of the channel, consolidated, and then they could have entered when it broke through with a target, as they were trading the channel, at the other side of the channel.
Result: 1 small loss, 1 win about twice the size.
Are you suggesting 'market makers' always win? How does picking out one example of a loss on a chart prove that all or any of the things you mention don't work. I tend to agree in that I think for shorter term trading order flow becomes much more important and useful to be aware of, but for longer term trading I think traditional technical analysis of charts is probably going to be of more help.
I don't understand the point you are trying to make.
As Matthew said, it's easy to just cherry-pick one or two examples and then be able to fit a whole theory around them: it's what most people who sell 'strategies' or even books do.
A different thing is to say "this approach is profitable x% of the time" or "this setup has a xyz expectancy"
Sure, hindsight is easy, but nothing changes. You take a trade because for one reason or another you think the probability is higher that the trade is going to go your way than not. And if it doesn't you take a small loss and go on to the next trade.
As I said, I tend to agree that order flow is important, especially for shorter term trading, and particularly now that accurate volume and the order book are widely available; but I disagree with your premise that a whole selection of methods can't work for anybody.
