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I have two good systems, which should I focus on?


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I have two good systems, which should I focus on?

  #11 (permalink)
ricks
Dayton, OH
 
Posts: 7 since Dec 2015
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 3

You've received some good advice in here...the one thing I would reiterate from that advice is if you are paper trading, the ZB especially, the fills in demo can really be skewed by fills that do not trade through the entry/exit price. I've seen some short term strategies offer great demo/backtested results in ZB but in live trading many of the trades would not get filled do to how thick the book is which lead to a "great" paper trading system becoming un-tradable in live markets.

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  #12 (permalink)
 tpredictor 
North Carolina
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Trading: es
Posts: 644 since Nov 2011

1. It sounds like and maybe I am misunderstanding: you don't really have a system. A system is something programmed that can be backtested. While it would be nice to have an empirically validated and sound trading methodology, I do think that it is probably more likely that one could develop themselves into a high level discretionary trader who could pass the TST/Oneup tryouts on a good run then it would be that someone could develop an empirically validated, backtested, and properly validated day strategy that could pass such requirements because it is notoriously difficult to make day trading strategies that perform.

As such, I think it is probably more reasonable to accept that you do not have a system but rather have discovered a pattern that is working in current markets. What is important in these situation is monitor the performance and don't stop thinking because there a risk that a discretionary trader discovers a simple trick or gimmick (aka system) that works and for a time they become very consistent and as result they end up short-circuiting their normal "market cognition" and then the gimmick quits working.

2. Be careful of what you share. Based on my experience, I would be very skeptical of any hedge funds, prop firms, prominent authors and vendors--etc. who would be interested in your rules.

3. I am surprised you think that being out of the market 1 minute before and after a report isn't sensible. If you have a strategy that can consistently trade reports then it would be advised to simply fund your account and trade it.

4. The best practice if you want to develop the systems additionally might be to analyze your performance so far and/or try to program a simplified proxy strategy using Ninjatrader or Tradestation. Also, you should probably look at the conditions of the market such as volatility and ATR to get some idea of which conditions are favorable.

5. On the frequent trading strategy, if you can identify a variable that corresponds with the profit factor you might be able to reduce the trade frequency.

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  #13 (permalink)
 Raider 
Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader & Jigsaw
Broker: Rithmic
Trading: ZB UB
Posts: 143 since Dec 2016


Hey update cause this thread is a bit old, I decided to go with the treasury strategy because I like correlation and hate crude oil. I've since been quite successful with it (passed oneuptrader and tst on it). I should've indicated that I hadn't just been trading it for 10 days, I traded something very similar for 3 months before, but just added an element to it. Btw to others sorry I wasn't talking about an algo. I've decided that I'm going all in on this strategy. I did well with both strategies, but I'm a firm believer you have to be an expert at one thing. Also I want to gain consistency in it so I need to trade for like 6 months on it. This is all out of order but to respond to the fills, I get traded through 80% of the time


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Last Updated on July 1, 2017


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